north central texas thinking ahead

North Central Texas Council of Governments

North Central TexasThinking Ahead

Donna CoggeshallNorth Central Texas Council of Governments


Thinking Ahead

Population: Past, Present, and Future

1900: 0.4 million

2010: 6.4 million

2040: 10.5 million

Figures are for the 12-county MPA


Thinking AheadDevelopment Form


Thinking Ahead

2005 – 2040 Growth

2005 2040 ChangePercent Change

People 5.8 10.5 4.7 82.5%

Jobs 3.6 6.6 3.0 82.3%

all figures are rounded and in millions

12-County Area

The 12-County Area includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant, and Wise CountiesPopulation figures do not include people living in group quarter such as jail, dorms, or nursing homes.

compound annual growth rate: 1.7%


Thinking Ahead

2005 – 2040 Growth

Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

12-County Area

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

1200000012-County Area

Population Employment


Thinking Ahead

2005 – 2040 GrowthCounty share of

projectedpopulation

growthWise

Parker

Hood

Johnson

Tarrant

Ellis

Dallas

Kaufman

Hunt

CollinDenton

Rockwall

0.9%

30.5%

12.6% 18.3%

20.8%

1.7%

2.6%

2.9%3.2%1.6%

2.3%2.7%



Thinking Ahead

2005 – 2040 GrowthCounty share of

projectedemployment

growthWise

Parker

Hood

Johnson

Tarrant

Ellis

Dallas

Kaufman

Hunt

CollinDenton

Rockwall

1.1%

27.5%

8.7% 12.6%

36.7%

1.5%

1.9%

2.6%3.1%0.8%

2.1%1.4%



Thinking Ahead

ProjectionsSummarized

by Market

Hunt

Johnson El l is

R o c k w a l l

Kaufman

Da l las

Denton

Col l in

Hood

TarrantParker

Wise


Thinking Ahead

2005-2040 Population Growth



Thinking Ahead

2005-2040 Population Growth

McKinney

Frisco/Legacy

Alliance/North Fort

Worth

WesternTarrant County

Southeastern Tarrant County

Las Colinas


Thinking Ahead

ProjectionsSummarized

by Market

Hunt

Johnson El l is

R o c k w a l l

Kaufman

Da l las

Denton

Col l in

Hood

TarrantParker

Wise


Thinking Ahead

2005-2040 Employment Growth



Thinking Ahead

2005-2040 Employment Growth

190/DNT

North Central

Corridor

Dallas CBD/Baylor/Uptown

I-20

Las Colinas

Brookhollow/Central

Stemmons


Thinking Ahead

Development Form

2040

2005



Thinking Ahead

1,100 new schools

44 new hospitals

470,000 new

multi-family units

70 million more sq ft of

class A office space

1 million new homes

350 new neighborhood retail centers

14 new malls

What Does It Mean?

Mobility 2035


For More Information:

www.nctcog.org

Donna Coggeshall817-695-9168

[email protected]

http://www.nctcog.org/


Economy


Thinking Ahead

Economic Ranking - GDP

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

(millions of current dollars)

Metropolitan Area 2001 2010

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 898,039 1,280,517

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 506,513 735,743

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 396,279 532,331

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 264,478 425,167

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 230,404 384,603

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 255,038 374,081

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 241,831 346,932

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 230,363 325,927

Other Major Texas Metros

Austin-Round Rock, TX 53,497 86,029

San Antonio, TX 52,324 82,036


Thinking Ahead

Economic RecessionsStart (quarter) End (quarter) Duration

in Months

February 1945(I) October 1945 (IV) 8

November 1948(IV) October 1949 (IV) 11

July 1953(II) May 1954 (II) 10

August 1957(III) April 1958 (II) 8

April 1960(II) February 1961 (I) 10

December 1969(IV) November 1970 (IV) 11

November 1973(IV) March 1975 (I) 16

January 1980(I) July 1980 (III) 6

July 1981(III) November 1982 (IV) 16

July 1990(III) March 1991 (I) 8

March 2001 (I) November 2001 (IV) 8

December 2007 (IV) June 2009 (II) 18

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html


Thinking Ahead

Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-00

May-00

Sep-00

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

U.S. Texas DFW MSA Tarrant County


Thinking Ahead

DFW Major EmployersName

Employees on Site Sector

American Airlines/AMR 11,709 Transportation/Warehousing

NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base 11,350 Public Administration

Lockheed Martin 10,500 Manufacturing

HP/EDS 10,000 Scientific/Technical

Texas Instruments HQ 9,800 Manufacturing

UT Southwestern Medical Center 8,545 Health Care/Social Assistance

University of North Texas 7,762 Education

Parkland Health & Hospital System 6,900 Health Care/Social Assistance

Medical City Dallas Hospital 6,000 Health Care/Social Assistance

Nortel Networks 6,000 InformationSource: NCTCOG Development Monitoring Program


Thinking Ahead

Tarrant County Major EmployersName

Employees on Site Sector

American Airlines/AMR 11,709 Transportation/Warehousing

NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base 11,350 Public Administration

Lockheed Martin 10,500 Manufacturing

UTA 5,300 Education

Burlington Northern Santa Fe 4,900 Transportation/Warehousing

JPS Health Network 4,600 Health Care/Social Assistance

AMR Corporation 4,000 Transportation/Warehousing

Texas Health Harris Methodist 3,968 Health Care/Social Assistance

Bell Helicopter Textron 3,820 Manufacturing

City of Arlington 3,500 Public AdministrationSource: NCTCOG Development Monitoring Program


State Data Center Projections


Thinking Ahead

A More Diverse Region

Source: Texas State Data Center


Thinking Ahead


Less than 18

18-24

25-44

45-64

65 plus

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

And a more Mature One


Thinking Ahead

Tarrant County Population Projection Scenarios

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20401,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,500,000.0

4,000,000.0

4,500,000.0

1,446,219.01,553,725.0

1,662,201.01,776,624.0

1,895,533.02,020,545.0

2,152,155.02,290,615.0

2,437,327.0

Zero Net Migration (0.0)

Lowered Migration (0.5)

Unchanged Migration (1.0)

Recent Migration Trends (2000-2007)

Zero net migration (0.0) assumes that immigration and outmigration are equal. Lowered migration (0.5) assumes net migration rates that are one-half those experienced in the 1990s. Unchanged migration (1.0) assumes that trends in age, sex and race/ethnicity experienced in the 1990s will continue. Recent migration trend (2000-2007) takes into account post-2000 trends in migration rates, age, sex, and race/ethnicity composition. Source: Texas State Data Center


Thinking Ahead

Tarrant County Population Projections

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



Thinking Ahead

Tarrant County Age Structure Projections

Under 55-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

Females in 2000

Males in 2000

Females in 2040

Males in 2040

Number of People

Age

Grou

p


north central texas thinking ahead

Documents

new schools44 new hospitals470

millions12county areathe

population growthsource

employment growthsource

new multifamily units70

compound annual growth

office space1

sq ft of class