north dakota state university, iacc room 424, p.o. box 6050, dept. 8000,fargo, nd 58108-6050 -...

North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

The Impact of the Nonprofit Sector in North Dakota: Challenges and Opportunities

Dr. Richard RathgeProfessor and Director

North Dakota State Data Center

Nonprofit Conference

Economic Challenges: Anticipating Change

Fargo, ND

March 5, 2009

North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc2

Presentation Objective:

1. To present demographic challenges facing ND’s nonprofit community.

2. To offer a contextual overview of the nonprofit community within the state.

3. To present key findings from an impact assessment of the nonprofit sector in ND and address opportunities.


Key Population Trends

1. Population consolidation

2. Rapidly shifting age distribution

3. Shifts in household composition

This means who we serve and where we serve them is changing


Population

North Dakota’s population peaked in 1930 at 680,845.

The July 1, 2008 population estimate for North Dakota totaled 641,481, an increase of 3,577 persons from 2007.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

North Dakota Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and the Population Estimates Branch, http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php


North Dakota Cass County

McIntosh County

40 similar counties

4 similar counties


Decrease: -10% or moreDecrease: 0% to -9.9%Increase: 0% to 19.9%Increase: 20% to 59.9%Increase: 60% or more

Projected Percent Change in Total Population in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020Note: For purposes of this study, the Great Plains is defined as all counties in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; Individual state agencies providing population projections


N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution, 1900-2020

92.789 86.4 83.4

79.573.4

64.8

55.751.2

46.7 45.440.9

7.311 13.6 16.6

20.626.6

35.2

44.3

53.3 54.659.1

48.8

0102030405060708090

100

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020

Year

Perc

ent

Rural

Urban

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses.


North Dakota City Size: 2000

City Size Distribution in North Dakota: 2000

100 to 249 Persons

23%

0 to 99 Persons35%

2,500+ Persons 5%

250 to 2,499 Persons

37%

Chart taken from the May 2002 Issue of the Population Bulletin, published monthly by the North Dakota State Data Center (Vol. 18, No. 5).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.


A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data)

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14121086420

Population (in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Male Female


A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020

Male Female

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14121086420

Population (in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4


Baby Boomers enter system

1.825 million/yr or 5,000 a day (on average)

Baby Boomers enter age 85

Source: Older Americans 2004


Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenryMountrail

Sioux

Benson

Divide

Burleigh

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

Richland

Logan

Dickey

Traill

Mercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

LaMoure

Eddy

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Renville

Ransom

GriggsFoster

McIntosh

GoldenValley

Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more


Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2020Source: North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020, Sept. 2002

Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenryMountrail

Sioux

Benson

Divide

Burleigh

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

Richland

Logan

Dickey

Traill

Mercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

LaMoure

Eddy

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Renville

Ransom

GriggsFoster

McIntosh


2000 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota

Traditional

Babyboom

X Generation

Y Generation


18901900

19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

20022010

2020

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

180,000

Age 0 to 9 Age 65 and Older

Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and OlderNorth Dakota: 1890 to 2020


North Dakota Public K-12 Enrollment, 2004-2006 and 2008-2016 Projections

Source: ND Department of Public Instruction


Change in North Dakota’s Labor Force by Age: 1970 to 2020

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1970to

1980

1980to

1990

1990to

2000

2000to

2006

2006to

2010

2010to

2015

2015to

2020

Cha

nge

in L

abor

For

ce (Per

sons

)

65 plus45 to 6435 to 4420 to 34

Note: The change in labor force participation was calculated for 2010, 2015, and 2020 by applying the 2006 ACS labor force participation rates to the population projections.

Sources - U.S. Census Bureau: 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census; 2006 ACS. North Dakota State Data Center: North Dakota Population Projections by Age and Gender: 2010, 2015, 2020


Households by Type

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Ho

use

ho

lds

Married withChildren

Marriedwithoutchildren

Other familywith children

Other familywithoutchildren

Nonfamilyhoushold

North Dakota Households by Type: 1960 to 2000

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000


Household TypesNorth Dakota Households by Type: 2000

Other non-family households

6%

Persons living alone29%

Other family without children

4%

Other family with children

7%

Married without children

30%

Married with children

24%

Poverty Rates in North Dakota by County: 2007

Nearly 12 percent of North Dakotans had family incomes that fell below the federal poverty thresholds in 2007.

Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, www.census.gov/hhes/saipe


Nonprofit Community in ND & MN

1. Distribution of nonprofits2. Characteristics 3. Charitable giving

North Dakota Association of Nonprofit OrganizationsMinnesota Council of Nonprofits (Jon Pratt)


Number of Charitable Nonprofits in North Dakota, 1996-2006

Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics, Urban Institute

Number of Minnesota Nonprofits

North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

Source: Minnesota Council of Nonprofits


Expenditures and Assets of Nonprofits in North Dakota, 1996-2006


Expenditures by Minnesota Nonprofits




Registration of North Dakota Nonprofits in 2006


Distribution of Expenditures of Nonprofits in North Dakota, 2006


North Dakota Employment in the Nonprofit Sector by Activity Area; 2004

Paid employment12.5% of ND workforce

Additional 2.3% unpaid full-timeequivalents or 9,000 workers

In t

hous

ands

Statewide Nonprofit Employment




501(c)(3) Public Charities in North Dakota by County: 2007

The first number in each county represents the total number of 501(c)(3) public charities reported for that county. The second number, in italics, represents the July 1, 2007 population estimate for that county.

Sources: The Urban Institute, National Center for Charitable Statistics, NCCS Core File (Public Charities, circa 2007) and the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates Program.


North Dakota Nonprofits by Field, 2006



North Dakota Foundations, 2006


Average Charitable Contribution from Tax Filer who Itemized Deductions, 2006

(80% of ND taxpayers did not itemize)


Percent of Income Contributed by North Dakota Taxpayers, 2005


Estimates of North Dakota Charitable Giving, 2001-2055

54.5%

49.2%47.4%

42.4%

8.6% 7.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Decline in totalrevenue

Increase inexpenses

Decline inindividual

contributions

Increase indemand for

services

Decline involunteers

None

Challenges Minnesota organizations are experiencing due to recession

Source: Minnesota Council of Nonprofits Member Survey, 2008



Nonprofit Sector Study

Methods and Approach

• Examined North Dakota’s top 100 public charities & 66 foundations• Used IRS records (Form 990)• Developed financial performance measures

• Fiscal• Mission• Sustainability

Key Findings

1. Resources highly concentrated

2. Management & general expenses high

3. Financial performance measures mixed

Modest changes in approaches combined with partnerships can have high value impact on the nonprofit sector in North Dakota.



Concentration of wealth among North Dakota’s Top Public Charities: Assets vs Number, 2007

Assets Number

Top 10% of public charities account for 59% of total assets 65% of total revenues 66% of total expenses


Impact of Potential Changes

Develop collaborative structure to leverage resources• Skills building• Fundraising• Marketing• Capacity building

Consider: if the 10 largest charities redirected 1% of expenses to collaborative support, the amount available for leveraging would be $16,076,688. (This is equal to total revenues for the smallest 141 nonprofits in ND.)

Note: 1% redirection for foundations = $127,839, (which would cover all revenues for the smallest 45 nonprofits).


Distribution of Expenses: ND Top Public Charities

Management and General Expenses among North Dakota Top Public Charities

Average Management & General Expenses = 12.4% of total expenses• 35% of top public charities have a rate above 15% of expenses•18% of top public charities have a rate above 20% of expenses•Average rate for foundations = 26% of total expenses



Reduce management and general expense and redistribute to programming or collaborative leveraging

Consider: if top public charities whose management & general expenses exceed 20%: reduced their rate by 5%, the savings would be $1,549,408 reduced their rate by 10%, the savings would be $3,098,817

If foundations whose management & general expenses exceeded 26%: reduced their rate by 5%, the saving would be $151,624 reduced their rate by 10%, the saving would be $303,266


Financial Performance Mixed

• 48% of public charities in our sample are financially weak.• Health care and human services have the lowest scores.• Largest charities (above $10 million) had the lowest scores

Fiscal Performance

Mission Performance• Fewer than 10% of charities dedicate less than 70% of expenses to programming.• Many charitable nonprofit rely heavily on program payments relative to contributions for revenues.

Sustainability Performance• Uniformly high among public charities.



Skills training and capacity building can strengthen nonprofit’s financial performance

What is needed?1.Funds to assist nonprofits in capacity building2.Online resources that make location irrelevant3.Fundraising training to expanding contribution revenue sources4.Collaborative forums to assist nonprofits in all aspects of their program5.Leadership skills training


Nonprofit Presentation 2009

Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND

NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108-6050 [email protected] Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc

north dakota state university, iacc room 424, p.o. box 6050, dept. 8000,fargo, nd 58108-6050 -...

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