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West

Northamptonshire

Joint Core

Strategy

Employment

Technical Paper

West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit

February 2011

Contents Purpose of Technical Paper .................................................................................................................... 4

Policy Context ......................................................................................................................................... 5

National policy .................................................................................................................................... 5

Regional Policy ................................................................................................................................... 6

Sub Regional Policy ............................................................................................................................ 7

MKSM Economic Development Implementation Plan (EDIP) December 2009 ............................... 8

Local Policy ........................................................................................................................................ 9

Daventry District Local Plan (June 1997) ....................................................................................... 9

South Northamptonshire Local Plan (October 1997) .................................................................... 10

Northampton Local Plan (June 1997) ........................................................................................... 11

Chapter 3 – Evidence Base ................................................................................................................... 12

CoPELA 1 ......................................................................................................................................... 12

CoPELA 2 ......................................................................................................................................... 12

NELS (Northampton Employment Land Study) .............................................................................. 12

The Strategic Northamptonshire Economic Action Plan) (SNEAP) ................................................ 13

The Northamptonshire Strategic Employment Land Assessment (SELA) 2009 .............................. 14

Job Growth Forecasting .................................................................................................................... 16

Floorspace Growth Forecasting ........................................................................................................ 17

Employment Land Supply ................................................................................................................ 17

West Northamptonshire Employment Land Study (WNELS) July 2010 ......................................... 18

Sustainable Northamptonshire Economic Action Plan (December 2010 Draft) ............................... 20

Relationship to Housing Growth: ..................................................................................................... 21

Consideration of Evidence in Developing a Jobs Target for the Pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy: 21

Pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy Jobs Target for West Northamptonshire: ................................ 23

Constants and Data Sources: ............................................................................................................. 24

Sources of jobs requirement: ............................................................................................................ 26

Total Jobs Target for West Northamptonshire .................................................................................. 28

Growth Sector Split and Land Requirements for the West Northamptonshire Jobs Target – WNELS

assessment: ........................................................................................................................................ 29

Growth Sector Split and Land Requirements for the West Northamptonshire Jobs Target – Pre-

Submission Joint Core Strategy: ....................................................................................................... 36

Conclusions to support the employment allocations in the Joint Core Strategy ............................... 38

Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................... 40

Purpose of Technical Paper

1.1 This background technical paper is provided to assist in setting out the extent of

evidence base that has informed the emerging approach to economic and

employment policy in the Joint Core Strategy for the towns and rural areas of West

Northamptonshire.

1.2 Work commenced on the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy in September

2006. A considerable evidence base on a variety of topic areas already existed for

the West Northamptonshire area and for and a large body of further information

has been gathered to date. This technical paper refers to additional documents that

form the evidence base and as such should be read alongside the reference

documents.

1.3 The document sets out at section 2 a brief background summary of national,

regional, sub regional and local policy that relates to economic and employment

matters. At section 3 the paper sets out the primary source of the evidence base

that supports the Joint Core Strategy and summaries the key issues from the

evidence base used to develop the options for the Emerging Joint Core Strategy.

Section 4 explains the Joint Core Strategy approach to Economic and Employment

policy as a result of evidence to date. Section 5 sets out the overall conclusions for

economic and employment policy development at this stage of the plan making

process and recommends areas that require further evidence development and

analysis.

Policy Context

National policy

2.1 Planning Policy Guidance Note 4: Industrial, Commercial Development and Small

Firms (1992) was published by Government on 10th November 1992, which takes a

positive approach to the location of new business developments and assisting small

firms through the planning system. The main message is that that development

plan policies should provide for choice, flexibility and competition whilst weighing

the importance of industrial and commercial development with that of maintaining

and improving environmental quality.

2.2 Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 4 – Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth was

published by the Government on 30th

December 2009. This followed a new draft

planning policy statement on sustainable economic development published in May

2009 intended to replace PPG4 and modify parts of PPS6 (2008). This planning

policy statement sets out the Government’s comprehensive policy framework for

planning for sustainable economic development in urban and rural areas including

town centres.

2.3 This new PPS updates the draft PPS4 and the draft PPS6, and consolidates national

planning policy on economic development into a single streamlined planning policy

statement. The policies in PPS4 are for development within B Use Classes, town

centre uses and other development which either provides employment

opportunities, generates wealth or produces or generates an economic output or

product (but NOT to housing development). The policies in PPS4 that reference

town centre(s) or centre(s) apply to all types of centres identified in the respective

RSS and / or DPD. The policies apply to both urban and rural areas.

2.4 The Government’s objectives for prosperous economies reflects and reinforces

current government policies such as promoting regeneration, delivering sustainable

patterns of development, improve accessibility and that centres be well served by

public transport, respond to climate change and promote high quality design. The

vitality and viability of town centres and other centres should be promoted as

important places for communities and important drivers of regional, sub-regional

and local economies. In order to achieve this Government wants:

• Economic growth to be focused in existing centres;

• Competition between retailers and enhanced consumer choice through the

provision of innovative and efficient shopping, services and tourism for the entire

community - particularly socially excluded groups.

• The historic and architectural heritage of centres to be conserved and enhanced to

provide a sense of place.

2.5 Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 12: creating strong safe and prosperous

communities through Local Spatial Planning (2008) was published by Government

on 4th June 2008. PPS 12 sets out the Government's policy on local spatial

planning, which plays a central role in the overall task of place shaping and in the

delivery of land uses and associated activities. Paragraph 2.5 of PPS 12 states that:

Spatial planning is also critical in relation to economic growth and regeneration by:

• providing a flexible supply of land for business and identifying suitable locations;

• ensuring business is drawn to the area by providing an attractive environment and a

sufficient workforce well housed and able to access employment opportunities easily

and sustainably;

• bringing in private funds through incentivising, promoting and coordinating

investment by the private sector;

• providing a robust basis for making bids for public funds and for assembling land for

projects; and

• providing a robust basis for assessing the need for, and

• providing supporting infrastructure and natural resources for economic

development.

2.6 Planning Policy Statement 7: Sustainable Development in Rural Areas (2004) The

objectives of PPS7 are:

• to raise the quality of life and the environment in rural areas;

• to promote more sustainable patterns of development;

• to promote the development of the English regions by improving their economic

performance so that all are able to reach their full potential (by developing

competitive, diverse and thriving rural enterprise); and

• to promote sustainable, diverse and adaptable agricultural sectors.

2.7 In meeting the economic needs of rural areas, PPS7 states that local planning

authorities should:

• Identify in LDDs suitable sites for future economic development particularly in those

rural areas where there is a need for employment creation and economic

regeneration;

• Set out in LDDs their criteria for permitting economic development in different

locations, including the future expansion of business premises, to facilitate healthy

and diverse economic activity in rural areas.

Regional Policy

2.8 The Government (December 2010) have made it very clear that they intend to

revoke the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS), but this has not yet been enacted, and

the RSS currently remains in place and a part of the Development Plan.

Notwithstanding the future abolition of the RSS, it is clear that the evidence base

which underlies and supports it, remains in place, and can be considered a material

consideration. It is in the light of this that the following section has been prepared.

2.9 The East Midlands Regional Plan (2009) was adopted 12th

March 2009 and

incorporates the Milton Keynes South Midlands Sub-Regional Strategy (MKSMSRS)

which was adopted by the Secretary of State in March 2005 and covers the whole

of Northamptonshire.

2.10 The Regional Plan (and its underlying evidence base) recognises that jobs are

moving away from traditional employment such as industrial work into sectors such

as retail, education and health and that there will be a significant decline in the

demand for industrial floorspace and a significant increase for office floorspace

over the next 10 -15 years. It also states that as a result of a shift from industrial to

higher density office space, that the demand for employment land will be broadly

static.

2.11 Although there is a significant shift to higher density employment from industrial to

office, the Regional Plan points out the importance of understanding sectoral

growth in areas such as high tech and strategic logistics whereby current allocations

may not be aligned with market demands or sustainability principles.

2.12 The Regional Plan (Policy 20) sets out the regional priorities for local employment

allocations. These priorities are as follows :

• Be responsive to market needs and the requirements of potential investors,

including the needs of small businesses;

• Encourage development of priority sectors identified in SRES;

• Serve to improve the regeneration of urban areas;

• Ensure the needs of high technology and knowledge based industry are provided for;

• Promote diversification of the rural economy;

• Assist the development of sites in the Priority Areas for Regeneration; and

• Be of a scale consistent with the essential policy of urban concentration as set out in

Policy 3 (Distribution of New Development) of the RSS.

2.13 Policy 21 (Strategic Distribution) of the RSS identifies West Northamptonshire

housing market area as one of the preferred broad locations in the region to bring

forward strategic distribution sites. When allocating these sites in LDDs, the RSS

states that local authorities should give priority to sites which can be served by rail

freight, and operate as inter-modal terminals. The RSS states that consideration

should be given to the following criteria:

• Good rail access;

• Good access to the highway network;

• A suitable configuration;

• A need for such facilities due to logistic industry demand;

• A location which allows for 24 hour operation and which minimises environmental

and community impact;

• Good access to labour; and

• The need to avoid locations near to sensitive nature conservations sites designated

as of national importance or that would directly increase traffic levels that would

harm such sites.

Sub Regional Policy

2.14 The Milton Keynes South Midlands (MKSM) Sub-Regional Strategy will also be

abolished alongside the RSS, and as with the RSS, its evidence base remains a

material consideration, and provides the original foundation for all subsequent

work.

2.15 The Milton Keynes South Midlands Sub-Regional Strategy (MKSMSRS) as expressed

in the East Midlands Plan (2009) provides the Northampton Implementation Area

(NIA) with an employment reference value of 37,200 jobs (2001 – 2021) for

monitoring and review purposes (MKSM SRS Northamptonshire 2).

2.16 MKSM SRS Northamptonshire 2 states that LDDs should set firm guidelines for

proactive inter-agency approaches that will:

• Meet all the principles for creating sustainable communities as set out in MKSM SRS

Policy 3;

• Provide an adequate choice of high-quality employment sites for targeted office and

high-value knowledge-based industries and for existing key sectors, making a

realistic assessment of the prospects for continuing use of older sites and including

an appropriate degree of mixed use on suitable sites, both new and existing;

• Reduce the need to travel by integrating land use and transport planning;

• Identify an appropriate number of existing and possible future District Centres

(urban hubs) to form sustainable sub-centres for shopping and for the provision of

commercial and social services, giving an emphasis to regeneration needs and

opportunities for urban renaissance where relevant.

2.17 Policy MKSM SRS Northamptonshire 3, sets out the strategic policies for the

revitalization and upgrading of the Northampton Central Area:

• Developing the area around and including the railway station not only as a transport

hub for the town but also as an attractive and vibrant gateway to the town centre

and a focus for development;

• Improving the range and quality of retail provision by increasing comparison and

convenience floorspace and linking this into revitalisation of the rest of the central

area incorporating attractive links to the railway station and waterfront areas;

• Making the central area the focus of a range of employment opportunities with a

particular emphasis on offices, through the provision of large office space through to

small office suites in both new and converted accommodation;

• Developing cultural / heritage tourism by enhancing the existing cultural heritage

facilities and attractions, and through the provision of new facilities; and

• Increasing the range of centrally located accommodation.

MKSM Economic Development Implementation Plan (EDIP) December 2009

2.18 This Implementation Plan, which deals with the whole MKSMSRS area, sets out a

number of key actions under the headings

• Low carbon live/work area

• Enhancing skills

• Building investment propositions

• Specific actions in key sectors

• High performance engineering and motorsport

• Sustainable construction

• Creative industries including the visitor economy

• Logistics

2.19 MKSM commissioned a study to examine the likely employment trajectory to 2021.

This concluded that the MKSM area is likely to deliver 134,000 jobs, compared with

the original target of 192,000.

2.20 The research used revised population assumptions reflecting the then current

housing targets which predicted 93,000 jobs by 2021. From 2001-2007 80% of the

reference target or 56,000 jobs achieved. 2008-2011 was expected to show a net

loss of 28,000 jobs, while 2012-2021 was expected to show a 61,000 job growth.

Overall, the job growth from 2001-2011 was expected to be 11%. Assumptions

were then made about the actions partners could take which would increase the

jobs growth to 134,000.

Local Policy

Daventry District Local Plan (June 1997)

2.21 The majority of industrial and commercial development allocated in the Daventry

District Local Plan is directed to the town of Daventry. The largest employment

area allocated was 27 hectares of land known as ‘Heartlands’ located to the

northwest of the town. This site was allocated for Economic Development which

could include Use Classes B1 (Offices), B2 (Manufacturing) and B8 (Warehousing).

In addition a nearby site of 18 hectares of land known as an extension to the

Drayton Fields Industrial Estate was also allocated for B1 / B2 / B8 employment.

2.22 The District Plan resists any B2 and B8 development outside the existing industrial

estates and Heartlands and Drayton Fields allocations (Policy EMP 3). Policy EMP 4

does not permit a change of use of sites within industrial estates from B1, B2 and

B8 to uses outside those classes.

2.23 The Local Plan stated that new office developments (B1a) in Daventry town centre

would be permitted (with regard to development briefs) on the following sites:

• West of Brook Street (Site 4)

• East of Brook Street (Site 5)

• South of Tavern Lane (Site 12)

• Land to the rear of Abbey Street, St John’s Square (Site 14)

2.24 B1a Office space is also encouraged in the upper floors in existing commercial

buildings.

2.25 Outside Daventry town, the overarching policy of the District Plan was to:

• Direct new business and general industrial development mainly to the Limited

Development Villages of Brixworth, Crick, Long Buckby and West Haddon

• Restrict new industrial and business development in Restricted Infill Villages to that

which is of an appropriately small scale that reflects the residential character of

the area and which is within the confines of the village.

• Strictly limit industrial and commercial development to the re use of suitable

redundant buildings for uses appropriate to the area in Restraint Villages

• Resist business and general industrial development in the Open Countryside.

2.26 Most of the land allocated in the Local Plan has now been developed, and any

remaining allocations as of April 2010 were re-assessed as a part of the West

Northamptonshire Employment Land Study (WNELS) July 2010.

South Northamptonshire Local Plan (October 1997)

2.27 The South Northamptonshire Local Plan policies sought to:

• direct industrial and commercial development to the urban areas;

• strengthen and broaden the economic base of the District;

• Diversify and create a more balanced rural economy;

• Provide opportunities in Towcester and Brackley for the local population to reduce

outward commuting; and

• Cater for the demand for small office space in Brackley and Towcester

2.28 The Local Plan allocated 35 hectares of employment land mainly in the towns of

Towcester and Brackley together with sites in the Rural Area. In addition to these

allocations, the Plan encourages B1 (Office) uses within the primary retail area of

Towcester and Brackley where the proposal involves the use of an upper floor.

2.29 Some employment development is directed to the Rural Areas in the Local Plan

with industrial and commercial development being normally permitted in the

Limited Development Villages of Deanshanger, Middleton Cheney and Old

Stratford.

2.30 In the Restraint Villages of Alderton, Castle Ashby, Courteenhall, Hulcote,

Passenham and Thenford and in the open countryside, development is not

normally permitted in the Local Plan apart from a number of isolated employment

sites in the open countryside with potential for expansion, exceptions which

involve a change of use or the conversion of a building or those identified in the

Plan.

2.31 Approximately 30 hectares of employment land was allocated for industrial and

commercial development at Grange Park. The site allocation at Grange Park is

related to the growth of Northampton. The Local Plan anticipated that about half

of the industrial / commercial development would occur during the Plan period

with the remainder being developed thereafter.

Silverstone Circuit

2.32 The following developments are indicated as being considered favourably at

Silverstone Circuit:

• Any tourism or leisure development which would complementary or compatible

with the use of the Circuit for motor sport;

• Upgrading of facilities to meet the modern demands of the spectator, the

participants and the aspirations of the operators

• Proposals for industrial or commercial development directly connected with motor

racing

2.33 Most of the land allocated in the Local Plan has now been developed, and any

remaining allocations as of April 2010 were re-assessed as a part of the West

Northamptonshire Employment Land Study (WNELS) July 2010.

Northampton Local Plan (June 1997)

2.34 The employment policies of the Northampton Local Plan seek to provide

employment growth and expansion by identifying and ensuring a continuous supply

of a diverse range of employment land for both new and local businesses. The

redevelopment and refurbishment of older premises is encouraged in the Plan.

2.35 The Local Plan allocates 357.5 hectares of land for business development (as

defined in the Class B1, B2 and B8 Use Classes Order). B1: Business (offices), B2:

General Industry, B8: Storage or Distribution. The principal locations of these

allocations are as follows:

• Bedford Road / Waterside 14.4 hectares

• Brackmills Industrial Estate 89.8 hectares

• Crow Lane 8.9 hectares

• Kings Heath 13.0 hectares

• Milton Ham 10.0 hectares

• Moulton Park 10.4 hectares

• Northampton Business Park 9.4 hectares

• Pineham 160.5 hectares

• Riverside Park 27.6 hectares

• Town Centre 8 hectares

2.36 Most of the land allocated in the Local Plan has now been developed, and any

remaining allocations as of April 2010 were re-assessed as a part of the West

Northamptonshire Employment Land Study (WNELS) July 2010.

Chapter 3 – Evidence Base

CoPELA 1

3.1 The first Northamptonshire Commercial Property and Employment Land

Assessment (CoPELA) was published in December 2003, having been prepared by

Roger Tym and Partners and Innes England. It was specifically intended to consider

four objectives.

• Assess the Northamptonshire commercial property market

• Evaluate the employment land forecasts, and the underlying assumptions, of the

MKSM study

• Evaluate current employment land allocations in relation to commercial market

demand an strategic priorities

• Identify policy measures required to ensure that an appropriate range of

employment sites are available to meet employment forecast requirements.

This document can be assessed as a part of the evidence base for the Joint Core

Strategy Pre-Submission.

CoPELA 2

3.2 CoPELA 2 was commissioned by Invest Northamptonshire and Northamptonshire

County Council to update the 2003 study. It was published in December 2006,

having been prepared by Lambert Smith Hampton with Roger Tym and Partners. It

was intended to establish

• If the supply identified by the planning system is adequate in quality and quantity to

meet the requirements of the MKSM and the Regional Plan

• What additional land (if any) should be allocated for employment use.

3.3 It concluded that space would be required for a net increase in 42,000 B-Class jobs

across Northamptonshire in the period 2001-2021. It suggested there was

sufficient committed supply of office land and an over-supply of industrial land,

although there was a deficit in the quality of the land available. Specific

recommendations were made for each District within the County. These, together

with the full report can be accessed as a part of the evidence base for the Joint

Core Strategy Pre-Submission.

NELS (Northampton Employment Land Study)

3.4 This report was published in July 2006, having been prepared by Innes England and

Roger Tym and Partners. The report was commissioned by Northampton Borough

Council, and assessed the demand for employment land up to 2021, reviewed the

quality of the planned supply and compared the forecast demand with the planned

supply. The study concluded there was a need to bring forward good quality office

sites within the town centre of Northampton, and identified possible locations for

additional development land allocations to meet demand.

3.5 The full report can be accessed as a part of the evidence base for the Joint Core

Strategy Pre-Submission.

The Strategic Northamptonshire Economic Action Plan) (SNEAP)

Draft Consultation Document (April 2008), and Final Report (December 2010)

3.6 In July 2007, West Northamptonshire Development Corporation (WNDC),

Northamptonshire Enterprise Limited (NEL) and the North Northamptonshire

Development Company commissioned SQW Consulting, supported by Cambridge

Econometrics to develop the SNEAP to deliver the economic vision for the county

through the Local Development Frameworks in North and West Northamptonshire.

The SNEAP identifies the key imperatives for Northamptonshire to achieve long

term sustainable economic growth for more and better jobs in the right places. It is

intended to cover the period of 2001 – 2021 and where appropriate looks forward

to 2026 to input into planning frameworks.

3.7 The SNEAP undertakes an analysis of forecasts for West Northamptonshire and

suggests that it should be able to achieve a jobs growth level of 53,000 jobs

between 2001 -2021 if the underlying conditions for growth were to continue.

3.8 The SNEAP highlights a range of possible transformational actions to achieve the

additional job and productivity ambitions related to six key themes:

Six Key Themes from SNEAP:

Employment land and Premises Transportation

Skills Urban Renaissance

Innovation and Enterprise Branding and Marketing

3.9 A Themes Paper is being prepared for each of these themes which will identify

priority issues and potential transformational actions.

3.10 The sectoral priorities are as follows:

Sectoral Priorities

High Performance Engineering Environmental Technologies

Construction Financial Services

Public Services Creative Industries

Leather Print and Publishing

Tourism Professional Services

Food and Drink Healthcare

Logistics ICT

3.11 There are a range of locally-important sectors in West Northamptonshire which are

projected to decline both relatively and absolutely (e.g. food, drink and tobacco,

and mechanical engineering). However, there also appear to be good prospects in

a number of reasonably knowledge-intensive areas (e.g. professional services and

computing services. Table B-3 from SNEAP is included below to illustrate the sector

forecast for high and low growth.

Table 3.1 – Cambridge Econometric Sector Forecast for West Northamptonshire (Copied

from Draft Strategic Northamptonshire Economic Action Plan (April 2008))

The Northamptonshire Strategic Employment Land Assessment

(SELA) 2009

3.12 Northamptonshire Enterprise Ltd (NEL) in conjunction with the planning authorities

in the County undertook a Strategic Employment Land Assessment (SELA) for

Northamptonshire. This study builds on a substantial body of work which has

already been undertaken to inform future strategic economic and employment

land policies and priorities in the county. The SELA evaluates employment

forecasts and required strategic employment land supply to meet these

requirements.

3.13 The SELA forms a key part of the economic and employment evidence base to

support policy makers in the delivery of their Local Development Frameworks.

3.14 The key messages from SELA are set out below:

Employment Performance in West Northamptonshire since 2001

• Using data from 2001 – 2007 (ABIA), the SELA determines that 16,306

jobs (net) have been created in West Northamptonshire for this period.

This indicates strong employment growth whereby 44% of the 37,200

jobs used as a reference value in the Regional Plan for West

Northamptonshire were created in just 30% of the twenty year period of

2001 - 2021.

• 13,672 B jobs (Office, General Industry, Storage / Distribution) were

created between 2001 – 2007 outperforming regional and national

averages

• The SELA highlights the poor performance of Non B jobs in West

Northamptonshire since 2001 with only 2,508 Non B jobs created

between 2001 – 2007. Non B employment, including but not exclusively

retail, hotels, leisure, tourism, food and drink, public services and

education are lagging behind regional and national trends. The report

states that an important policy consideration will be whether to plan a

more prominent role for B-use activities in meeting the preferred growth

scenario. It acknowledges that this would represent a significant shift in

policy initiatives for Northamptonshire to drive forward key and wider

town centre regeneration proposals in Northampton Central Area and

town centres in the County’s boroughs and districts. The report suggests

that the following actions are considered in the development of policies

and site allocations to address the lagging performance of Non B

employment:

� incorporating an appropriate scale and type of non B-use

activities in ‘traditional’ employment (B-use) sites;

� combining in a viable manner, B and non B-uses in town centre

master plans and development briefs with a particular focus

on how the county’s town centre regeneration activities can

support jobs growth and

� Complementary initiatives aimed at investing in skills and

training in lagging sectors.

Demand Forecasting

3.15 A series of employment growth scenarios for the County have been created and

evaluated in this study:

• Dwellings and population led scenario.

• Econometric / Trend based scenario (Tempro v5.4).

• Policy Scenario.a ‘preferred-scenario’ was identified. This rolls forward the

SNEAP preferred economic vision and is summarised below in Tables ES2

(jobs growth) and ES3 (B use floor-space requirements).

After testing the three assessments and initial consultation with key stakeholders, a

‘preferred-scenario’ was identified. This rolls forward the SNEAP preferred

economic vision to 2031 and is summarised below in Tables ES2 (jobs growth) and

ES3 (B use floor-space requirements). This forecasting is included below:

Job Growth Forecasting

Table 3.2 – SELA Preferred Policy Scenario Jobs Growth by Sector (Copied from SELA

(2009))

Floorspace Growth Forecasting

Table 3.3 – SELA Preferred Policy Scenario Floorspace Requirement (sqm)(Copied

from SELA (2009))

Employment Land Supply

3.16 SELA recognises that in meeting the preferred employment growth scenario for the

county there is an urgent requirement to provide an immediate supply for the

different market sectors within each of the districts and boroughs.

3.17 The supply offer, it states, should be on the basis that sufficient sites are

immediately available for development/occupation and there is an appropriate

level of choice available to potential occupiers, without flooding the market

through an over supply of employment land. Ideally this should relate to sites that

provide (1) availability from developers, (on either a speculative or design and build

basis), or (2) availability of serviced sites to purchase for potential end-

user/occupiers.

3.18 In addition to the sites identified in the SELA, it is recognised that additional sites

will come forward through the planning and development processes. It states that

these ‘additional sites’ where situated in appropriate locations (consistent with

relevant policy) and can, through working with statutory bodies demonstrate

strong commercial need and viability as well as high sustainability and design

standards, should be considered favourably.

3.19 The study identifies regionally important locations which should be given particular

attention when plan making authorities are considering future employment land

allocations and it identifies other locations as being worthy of further investigation,

although these were assessed as not being of strategic or cluster-specific

importance. These West Northamptonshire sites are set out below:

Locations with Potential as Strategic Employment Sites and Clusters

• Northampton Town Centre is a location which should be examined as a regionally

important location with good rail connectivity and likely to attract inward

investment. (N5 Avon Site, N17 Castle Station, N18 Waterside; N20 St Johns, N21

Angel Street, N23 Bridge Street, N34 Lady’s Lane; N35 TC3 Newland, N36 TC4

Victoria Street, N38 Edgar Mobbs Way) 29.3 hectares of employment land.

• Land at Northampton South East is a location which should be examined as a

regionally important location with good M1 connectivity and likely to attract inward

investment. (N2 Caswell Road, N3 Pavilion Drive, N4 Nationwide Beach Car Park, N7

Reynoldstone Road, N10 Coca Cola Brackmills, N13 The Lakes Bedford Road; N14

Martins Farm, N37 Houghton Gate, S30 Preston Green) 124.1 hectares of

employment land.

• Land at DIRFT expansion should be examined as a regionally important strategic

distribution location with good inter-modal road/rail transfer at DIRFT, (with other

siding potential), and likely to attract investment. (D1 DIRFT Expansion Site) 54

hectares* of employment land

� *This figure doe not include the 210 hectares of employment land at D4

Rugby Radio Station site

• High Performance Engineering and Motor Sport Cluster; should be examined

collectively as a sector cluster. (S1 Silverstone, D5 Illmor WayBrixworth) 43.9

hectares of employment land

West Northamptonshire Employment Land Study (WNELS) July

2010

3.20 The purpose of the study was to assess future land requirements for industry,

warehousing and offices; comparing these with the supply already identified; and

recommend whether the sub-region needed more, fewer or different sites for

these uses.

3.21 WNELS recognised that the number of different jobs targets which have been

produced for Northamptonshire presents a confusing picture of how many jobs and

what type of jobs are required for West Northamptonshire. These have been

simplified into two different targets as shown below:

Comparison of Indicative Net Employment Change

Sectors RSS Jobs per year SNEAP Jobs per year

Industrial -191 -149

Warehousing 231 397

Office 913 950

B-Space Jobs 954 1,198

Non B-Space Jobs 906 1,452

All Jobs 1,860 2,654

Table 3.4 – Comparison of RSS and Preferred SNEAP Jobs Targets per annum

(Copied from West Northamptonshire Employment Land Study (July 2010))

3.22 WNELS was concerned that West Northamptonshire cannot sustainably provide

more jobs than its available labour supply because of the specific constraints it

faces.

3.23 WNELS focused on the quantitative supply of labour in West Northamptonshire;

are there physically enough workers to sustainably support job growth now and in

the future? As noted above West Northamptonshire has (pre-recession) operated

with a very tight labour market, with low levels of unemployment. It has the

capacity (land and floorspace) to return to these low levels.

3.24 WNELS considered two sources of job numbers; the SELA “dwellings led” scenario

and the regional demographic projections published by the Regional Assembly. The

Regional Demographic Model (RDM – May 2009) estimates the increase in working

age population of 24,300 net additional workers between 2008 and 2026 (1,350 per

annum), suggesting fewer new jobs than the RSS and SNEAP provide (1,860/2,651

per annum for comparison). The RSS employment target is increased through an

assumption of increased economic activity rates amongst older age groups. The

SELA “dwellings led” scenario seeks to internalise all new workers since 2001, by

providing them with new jobs in West Northamptonshire (compared to the RSS

which assumes a continuation of previous commuting trends). With this

adjustment the number of new jobs provided is similar to the RSS number at 1,811

new jobs per annum. It should be noted that although the SELA dwellings-led

scenario sought to internalise all new population growth, no allowances were made

for factors like increased economic activity rates amongst the older population

(accounting for increasing retirement age).

3.25 For the reasons given in its report, WNELS recommends a job growth target similar

to that set out in the RSS, based on the RSS housing numbers. It notes that if fewer

houses (than the RSS targets) are provided, then fewer jobs will also be required.

3.26 The WNELS reported on the existing stock of traditional B1, B2 and B8 employment

land and concluded that the vast majority should be retained for employment use,

and the policy to be adopted should be “protect, monitor and manage”. It further

considered that Northampton Central Area should be the primary focus for office

based employment, and noted that steps were being promoted in the

Northampton Central Area Action Plan to promote this type of development.

3.27 In the short term (up to 2016), WNELS expects manufacturing to continue to

decline, and that the recession is likely to limit office and non B growth. It is

therefore considered that the only sector which is likely to provide growth during

this period is warehousing (B8). This would be a continuation of past trends, and

also reflects the expectation that the warehousing sector is likely to be the first

sector to show strong post recession growth.

3.28 The WNELS study confirmed that there is sufficient identified land to meet the

requirements for the whole of the plan period (and this is based on the RSS housing

targets), up to 2021 if un-constrained, and to 2026 if existing constrained land

comes forward. The report also recommends that change of use between B2 and

B8 should be encouraged, in order to facilitate the most appropriate and timely

development of the area.

Sustainable Northamptonshire Economic Action Plan (December

2010 Draft)

3.29 The above document represents a revision of the April 2008 Draft of the Strategic

Northamptonshire Economic Action Plan in light of the impact of the recession,

constraints on delivery and debate over the requirement for employment growth in

Northamptonshire. The document adopts a more pragmatic approach towards

total requirements, but retains a tight focus on “resolving underlying structural

weaknesses and equipping Northamptonshire with the infrastructure and capacity

to enable it to compete economically in future years, whatever shape future

growth may take (SNEAP, 2010 :4)”.

3.30 The revised SNEAP retains the headline requirement that up to 100,000 additional

jobs could be added as a maximum from 2001-21 to support growth in the County

and considers the economic implications of this alongside the vision needed to

ensure delivery. SNEAP also aims to ensure the existing supply of substantial

planning consents can be effectively built out. However, reference is made to the

adjustments being made to projected patterns in housing growth being developed

for the new, emerging planning regimes post-May 2010.

3.31 SNEAP envisages that Northamptonshire must be well positioned to make a step-

change in delivering employment growth in future years even in-light of significant

shortfall of delivery against the MKSM or SNEAP growth targets. Objectives are set

to ensure underlying structural weakness is addressed so Northamptonshire is

equipped with the capacity and infrastructure to support development. These

intend to ensure that, regardless of the amount of housing growth achieved in

future years, productivity (measured in Gross Value Added terms) performs well

against UK and regional averages and job creation matches population growth.

3.32 The key objectives in SNEAP are listed as: Employment Land and Premises;

Education and Skills; Enterprise and Innovation; Transportation; Town Centre

Regeneration; Building the Brand. Each has identified specific priorities for future

investment. The theme papers developed for each of these areas follow on from

those created for the April 2008 Draft of SNEAP. The requirements of the objectives

have been considered where they overlap with Joint Core Strategy policy,

particularly in terms of identifying priority sectors for growth, a town centre focus

and identifying the most suitable employment land sites.

Relationship to Housing Growth:

3.33 The emerging evidence on the impact of the recession on housing growth is

suggesting that the number of houses which will be capable of being provided

within the plan period will be significantly lower than envisaged in the RSS

(approximately 50,150 compared with 62,125 in the RSS). However, given the

uncertainties about the recovery from the recession, the sectors which are most

likely to recover first, and the lack of clarity about the job/floorspace ratios that are

now relevant, it is considered appropriate to retain the existing good quality

employment land supply at least until the recession is over and the recovery is

underway. The implications for population growth, and by deduction the increase

in labour force, related to this new housing trajectory are available in the Housing

and Population Technical Paper and summary paper on Population Forecasts

produced by Edge Analytics1.

Consideration of Evidence in Developing a Jobs Target for the Pre-

Submission Joint Core Strategy:

4.1 The jobs target in the pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy aims to provide for a net

increase of 16,000 jobs over the plan period from 2010-2026. The basis for

adopting this target based on the evidence-base is explained below. A detailed

breakdown of assumptions is given in the subsequent section. This jobs target is to

be adopted for monitoring purposes only and should be considered the minimum

demand based on the strategic priorities of West Northamptonshire.

4.2 In working to develop an employment projection for the Pre-Submission Joint Core

Strategy the Joint Planning Unit has worked to develop a realistic target that is

considered robust with reference to the proposed trajectory of housing delivery

and subsequent population change. The jobs target that has been derived is

constrained by the projected change in labour supply over the plan period. This

draws on the central findings from WNELS that jobs growth is unlikely to be able to

radically exceed in the Labour Force of the West Northamptonshire Plan Area over

medium-to-long performance trends.

1 See http://www.westnorthamptonshirejpu.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=WyObQ1FCgyc%3d&tabid=145

4.3 The WNELS study suggested a jobs target in-line with the MKSM target of 37,000

additional jobs from 2001-21, or 49,600 when interpolated forwards to cover 2001-

2026. This target would also closely mirror the dwellings-led scenario provided by

SELA of 48,662 new jobs from 2001-2026. Taking into account the 15,900 jobs

created between 2001-08 (based on ABI data) these targets left an annual

requirement for job creation of 1,872 (MKSM) and 1,820 (SELA dwellings-led)

respectively from 2008-26. These targets were considered challenging and were

themselves in excess of the projected labour force increase based on the delivery

of RSS housing targets by +12,000 jobs (before considering any increase in

economic activity rates or reduced out-commuting).

4.4 The SELA dwelling-led scenario assumed that all employment from labour force

increase could be internalised in West Northamptonshire (effectively constraining

absolute numbers of out-commuters to current levels). Increasing economic

activity rates (especially as a result of raising retirement age) and increased in-

commuting from surrounding areas as a result of a changing role in the Sub-Region

could also boost job creation. With these additional components of job creation

considered, these targets were considered achievable in-line with projected

dwelling delivery and population growth.

4.5 Based on this analysis, the targets suggested by SNEAP and the TEMPRO 5.4 model-

based scenario run in SELA (both requiring future job creation of circa 2800 p.a

from 2008-2026) are considered aspirational rather than realistic. The average

annual rate of job creation achieved from 2001-2008 of +2,271p.a was well below

the SNEAP targets above, despite the high level of population growth and

development seen in this period. The labour force in West Northamptonshire

increased from 2001-2008 faster than anticipated under the RSS-based projections,

but this was a pattern driven by high immigration of working-age people and

supported by a buoyant economy. Based on this large increase in labour supply, it is

not surprising jobs were created above the RSS target (1872 p.a) during this period,

but the pattern was unlikely to be sustainable in the longer term. Without dwelling

delivery exceeding RSS projections (it is currently below target) it would be

impossible to continue to accommodate the increasing labour force without

greater numbers living in abnormally large households or shared accommodation.

When coupled with the impact of the recession leading to a reduction of high-rates

of in-migration and loss of overall jobs in 2008/09, even the performance from

2001-08 seems extremely positive and hard to maintain.

4.6 The findings of the SNEAP and SELA preferred scenario should not be overlooked.

West Northamptonshire must avoid structural weaknesses that prevent job

creation at least matching labour force growth, as this pattern was crucial to

support the strong economy in the plan area from 2001-08. Jobs growth above

labour force and household increase was also achieved to an extent in this period,

and it would be strategically sensible to see this as possible again in the future,

especially through the successful promotion of priority locations and sectors for

growth. These aspirations should be fed into the development of targets. However,

the original SNEAP target was never likely to be matched by long-term labour

supply, housing or population growth and a target this far above projected delivery

cannot be sustainable supported.

4.7 A key conclusion of the WNELS output was that any reduction in housing delivery

would have an unavoidable and negative impact on the rate of job creation.

Reduced household growth would not only limit the increase in labour supply but

also the role of West Northamptonshire as a growth area. Without a ready supply

of new labour, demand in growth sectors is likely to be limited and land

requirements subsequently reduced. Such patterns are largely considered realistic,

especially in the current economic climate, and re-working of the pre-Submission

jobs target has adopted this approach.

4.8 However, the jobs target explained below has been produced with several caveats

that still make it a positive and optimistic target for West Northamptonshire for the

following reasons. It is felt it therefore represents the best use of available

evidence in the current climate:

• The per annum rate of job creation over labour force growth from 2001-2008 is

projected forwards in the new target. This allows past positive trends to be

continued, either through decreased out-commuting, increased economic activity

rates or future labour force growth being above that envisaged in the dwellings-led

model.

• Economic activity rates are held constant at current levels for most groups, but the

statutory increase in retirement age for males / females has been included and

factored into job requirements.

• The target is for the net change in employment. In each sector additional land must

be identified to account for the churn of current sites.

• The proposed target is a minimum and will be closely monitored and reviewed as

required. Any upturn in dwelling delivery will generate a greater increase in labour

supply and must be responded to quickly. Conversely, if job creation exceeds the

Core Strategy target despite low dwelling completion rates, measures must be taken

to ensure this strong performance of the West Northamptonshire economy can be

supported to maintain such advantage.

Pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy Jobs Target for West

Northamptonshire:

4.9 Below is a summary of the key assumptions used to develop a new jobs target

based on the above evidence. The work has been investigated by Roger Tym and

Partners in the paper ‘West Northants Further Evidence – Interim Report’ that

looked to check the consistency of this target with previous evidence and also

attempt to re-align the Use Class and growth sector requirements for this target.

This report was generally supportive of the methodology, noting the in-built

consistency of the suggested target against dwelling delivery as this is mainly

derived from the increase in labour supply. Although not directly related to this

paper, the Roger Tym work was also supportive of the assumptions used in the

population model (such as household headship rates and economic activity rates)

to generate the projected labour supply.

4.10 The Roger Tym research noted that the Joint Core Strategy jobs target is around

+12,000 against the projected labour force increase of 3,900 people from 2008-

2026 based on current economic activity and commuting rates (see para. 4.16

below). This is consistent with the findings of the WNELS study that showed RSS-

based jobs targets were c. +12,000 against the projections in the East Midlands

Demographic Model. Based mainly on the projected increase in economic activity

as a result of increased retirement age, plus some allowance for growth above

trend, the Roger Tym paper believed this to be a robust approach.

Constants and Data Sources:

4.11 The scenarios are based on 2 periods. Growth from 2001-2008 can be recorded in

actual figures published through ABI surveys and further analysed in WNELS. The

years 2009-2026 are a future projection based on these and other population /

economic trends. Although population data has been published for 2009, no

comparable employment data has been released through the ABI.

4.12 The following table summarises the main constants and data sources on which the

numbers are based:

Parameter Data Source Explanation

Labour Force 2001-2026 Dwellings F projection from

West Northamptonshire Joint

Planning Unit (based on

Dwellings C Variant 3 from

Edge Analytics Projections)

Most reliable estimate

of working age

population from 2001-

2026, including

assessments of

economic activity for all

16+ age groups

Total Population Dwellings C Variant 3

projection from Edge

Analytics Projections

As above, and based on

dwellings work for JCS

Total Population

Labour Force

Dwellings F Variant 3

projection from WNJPU,

based upon minor

modifications to Dwellings C

Variant 3 scenario above

As above, and based on

dwellings work for JCS

Level of People With Second

Jobs

ONS Labour Market

Statistics Bulletin – October

Most recent source to

list proportion of people

2010 believed to work more

than one job

Employee Jobs ABI Employee Jobs (2008)

available through

Most comprehensive

freely available data on

workplace-based

employment available

Jobs Growth 2001-2008 Analysis from WNELS –

ABI Employee Jobs Based

(2008)

Essentially same source

as above, but data

cleansed to account for

inaccuracies in

workplace (i.e. remote

workers incorrectly

assigned to head office

locations). Also includes

limited breakdown by

SIC / occupational

group.

Travel to Work Flows Census 2001 TTW Flows Most comprehensive

data showing District-

District trips, hence the

economically active

population working

somewhere in WN

Jobs Density ONS Jobs Density Only data source

available for this

estimate

Employment and

Unemployment

ONS Annual Population

Survey Apr-Mar 2009-2010

Most up-to-date source

for unemployment

4.13 In the analysis, TTW is taken as a constant from the 2001 Census Position,

calculating the number of people who are resident and work within the West

Northamptonshire partner authorities. This estimate believes 76% of the

Economically Active Population of West Northamptonshire have jobs in the area.

Estimates after 2001 come from extremely small sample sizes, so there are few

reliable new estimates of how commuting patterns have changed.

4.14 Labour Force changes and Job Creation are taken as annual averages at this stage.

Clearly, neither job creation or population changes have been linear, nor will they

be based on the 50k dwellings scenario. This can be assessed in due course when

employment growth is looked at in more detail, both by sector and when land is

allocated for development.

Sources of jobs requirement:

1) Job Creation Above Labour Force Growth

4.15 West Northamptonshire showed relatively strong employment growth from 2001-

2008 based on Annual Business Inquiry data2. While the analysis in WNELS showed

this was not strong enough to support an employment target radically higher than

the RSS figure of 37,000 net new jobs 2001-2021, more jobs were created than the

Labour Force increased. This suggests West Northamptonshire may have captured

more in-commuters from elsewhere, out-commuting had fallen or economic

activity has increased. The difference per year is modest, but it is felt it is a realistic

aspiration this pattern could be maintained (after the recovery) given the economic

advantages that exist and can be enhanced in the area.

Parameter Change

Labour Force Change

2001-2008

18,827

LF Increase 2001-

2008 likely to TTW

inside WN

18,827 x 0.76 =

14,309

ABI Jobs 2001-2008

(WNELS Analysis)

15,856

Jobs Increase < LF

Increase

1,547

Increase p.a 2001-

2008

1,547 / 7 =

221

Potential

Aspirational Target

2008/9 – 2026

221 * 18 =

3979 New Jobs

2 Note: Others changes in Job Numbers in West Northamptonshire could have been used,

such as Local Unit Employment Counts through the Inter-Departmental Business Register

or the ‘total jobs’ assessment provided in ONS Jobs Density Calculations. These could give a

higher aspirational target but are generally considered less reliable and also cover types of

jobs (like self-employment) that are less directly related to Core Strategy allocations.

2) Labour Force Increase – Without Retirement Element

4.16 The 50k dwelling scenario allows very limited population growth in West

Northamptonshire, and as already stated in previous work much of the increase will

be attributed to an ageing population and Under-16’s due to natural change.

However, the population projections still show an increase in the potential Labour

Force from 2008 to 2026. Unlike the SELA dwelling-led scenario, it is not felt

realistic that the whole increase in Labour Force will be internalized and require job

provision in West Northamptonshire. Patterns of out-commuting are relatively

sustainable for some groups (e.g. South Northamptonshire to Milton Keynes /

Banbury) and are unlikely to change dramatically. Rates therefore have been held

constant at levels in the 2001 Census, but can be reviewed on publication of 2011

data:

Parameter Change

LF Increase 2008/9 to 2026 5,144

LF Increase PA 2008/9 – 2026 5,144 / 18 = 286

LF Increase p.a likely to work in WN 286 * 0.76 = 217 (rounded)

LF Increase 2008/9 – 2026 217 * 18 = 3906 New Jobs Needed

3) Labour Force Increase – Retirement Element

4.17 Economic activity rates have been changed to account for the retirement age of

women increasing from 60-65 between 2010 and 2020, and the retirement age for

all people rising to 66 from 20213. This creates a need for extra jobs, as less people

will be leaving employment than has been seem historically; this raises the overall

economic activity rate.

Parameter Change

LF Increase – Women Working to 65 4,333

LF Increase – Men Working to 66 731

LF Increase – Women Working to 66 1,046

LF Increase due to increased retirement age

(2010-2026)

6,111

Increase Due to Retirement likely to work in

WN

6,111 * 0.76 = 4,644

Increase if 5% of Increased Retirement Age 4644/100 *105 = 232 (4876 Total)

3 More information on the increase in UK retirement age can be found at

http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Pensionsandretirementplanning/StatePension/DG_4017919

Work Second Jobs

4) Proportion of People Working Second Jobs

4.18 At present, 3.82% of people work second jobs based on the most recent evidence,

and this should be represented in previous job figures. However, the new Labour

Force generated by population growth should be multiplied by this percentage to

account for the proportion likely to work 2 jobs. However, it is our assumption the

numbers of people working 2 jobs will increase to around 5%, both in response to

ongoing increases in Part-Time employment growth and to cope with economic

hardship. In-truth this assumption generates a relatively small increase in job

requirements, but it is considered consistent with current thought and the current

climate and aims to make West Northamptonshire well-positioned to take

advantage of future ways of working such as more part-time opportunities.

4.19 Therefore, the new Labour Force generated since 2009 are assumed to work 2 jobs

at a rate of 5%, and the increase from 3.82% to 5% is calculated for the Labour

Force in 2008:

Parameter Change

Labour Force @ 2008 with second jobs (206908/100) * 3.82 = 7904

Labour Force @ 2008 if 5% had second jobs (206908/100) * 5.00 = 10345

Increase in jobs needed for existing Labour

Force:

2442 new jobs (may not add due

to rounding)

New Jobs for LF Increase 2008/9 – 2026 3,906

New Jobs if 5% work second jobs 3,906 / 100 * 105 = 4101

LF Increase to allow for second jobs: 4,101 – 3,906= 195 New Jobs

Total Jobs Target for West Northamptonshire

4.20 Adding these elements together a jobs target based on the 50k dwelling scenario

can be calculated for West Northamptonshire:

Reason Jobs Required

Jobs Increase Above Labour Force Increase 3979 Jobs

Jobs Increase Required for Labour Force

Growth (without retirement increase)

3906 Jobs

Jobs Increase Required – Increased

Retirement Age (including assumption 5% do

4,876 Jobs

2 jobs)

Jobs Increase Based on More Second Jobs in

Existing Labour Force

2442 Jobs

Allowance for Second Jobs amongst

Increased Labour Force 2009-2026

195 Jobs

Total Jobs Required 15398 Jobs

4.21 The target has been increased to 16,000 for the Pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy,

primarily as a result of further modifications to the housing trajectory to bring

forward development timescales slightly. This will result in a further small increase

in Labour Supply through increased household formation. Another reason for the

increase to 16,000 is that significant numbers of people also in-commute to work in

West Northamptonshire and the populations of neighbouring areas will also

increase over the plan period. It is not possible to project with any certainty the

growth in this number of in-commuting workers, but the increase stated above

broadly maintains the existing proportion of in-commuting..

Growth Sector Split and Land Requirements for the West

Northamptonshire Jobs Target – WNELS assessment:

Additional supply (by Sector) to meet the JCS Jobs Target (from WNELS):

4.22 The West Northamptonshire Employment Land Study used the following

methodology to generate sector and land requirements for the jobs target (roughly

aligned with RSS projections in the study):

• Margins: Translating the net jobs target in a gross requirement for land use provision

to take account of;

• Allowance to compensate for existing employment sites that may be lost in

future ‘churn’

• Allowance for land in the development (‘supply’) pipeline and to ensure choice

and competition in sites available.

• Sector to Jobs by Land Use: using ABI trends from 2001-2008 to assign jobs by

Standard Industrial Class to a land use; either B1/B2/B8 employment use or Non-B uses.

• Jobs to Land: Translating the above Jobs by Land Use into a land requirement. This

utilises assumptions regarding;

• Employment Densities – floorspace per worker by land use category

• Plot Ratios – floorspace to site area by land use type / location

• Tackling the issue of predicting growth by location (e.g. by Local Authority).

Margins to calculate gross supply:

4.23 The West Northamptonshire Employment Land Study looked in detail at existing

employment sites in West Northamptonshire and sites in the supply pipeline. This

aimed to establish the land and location requirements for future development and

the specific sectors where growth is most likely. The initial findings from WNELS

have subsequently been modified and re-scaled to match the new jobs target

developed above, specifically through the Interim Report publish by Roger Tym and

Partners in January 2011. This work has been used to support the strategic policy

and land allocations proposed in the pre-Submission West Northamptonshire Joint

Core Strategy.

4.24 As highlighted previously in this technical paper, WNELS carried the assumption

that existing sites were of sufficiently good quality that all should be protected for

future employment uses, especially considering the limited delivery of new sites

likely in the immediate years of the post-recession climate. WNELS does not

propose any additional land allocations to offset a ‘churn’ of existing employment

sites falling into other uses. While there may inevitably be some losses, land use in

existing sites is likely to intensify through any regeneration and most adaptation

will be Change of Use within B-Use employment categories (i.e. industrial (B2) to

warehousing (B8)). Any such changes are accounted for in Land:Jobs Density

assumptions (see below).

4.25 Based on the findings of WNELS, choice and competition is to be provided in the

provision of employment land by ensuring a 5 year land supply of sites to meet the

growth requirement for each sector is available throughout the plan period. Based

on the existing supply pipeline this should be met by staggering committed sites

(i.e. those with planning permission) and those intended for allocation across

different periods of the plan. This will not require the identification of any new sites

outside the WNELS schedules, but will provide a rolling reservoir of sites for

sustainable delivery from 2010-26. It is also important to prevent over-supply at

any point as this can serve to restrict overall demand.

SIC Sector to Jobs and Jobs to Land Use Requirement:

4.26 More detail on these assessments is available in the main WNELS report.

4.27 In summary, the following employment densities were used to calculate floorspace

requirements per job for each type of B-class land use. Although new evidence has

been used to justify these densities (including available VOA rateable floorspace vs.

total jobs) they match the figures originally used in the CoPELA document:

• B1 = 18sqm per worker

• B2 = 35sqm per worker

• B8 = 88sqm per worker

4.28 Employment densities are not provided for non-B employment land use as these

are usually set by bespoke requirements e.g. the available site for a new school or

hospital.

4.29 A range of plot ratios have been suggested, most commonly 40% Land :

employment floorspace for B2 and B8 uses. 60-80% ratios are achievable on B1

Office sites, specifically those in town centres, dependent on site specific criteria.

4.30 The following tables summarise the targets by land use sector developed for

WNELS as a result of these findings:

Table 4.1 – ‘Indicative Net Employment Change 2008-2016 (Copied from WNELS (July

2010))

Table 4.2 – ‘Indicative Net Employment Change 2016-2026 (Copied from WNELS (July

2010))

Table 4.3 – ‘Total Indicative Net Employment Change 2008-2031 (Copied from

WNELS (July 2010))

4.31 The suggestion from WNELS was that trends from 2001-08 would be largely

continued from 2008-16, particularly the demand for warehousing and significant

loss of manufacturing. B1 Office development ran slightly above the RSS target in

this period, but following the recession the findings of WNELS indicated demand for

office development from 2008-16 was likely to be capped at the RSS level. From

2016 onwards, employment targets are set at RSS levels. As mentioned earlier, this

is considered the most sustainable prediction in line with demand and population

growth. Overall this gives an annual jobs increase of 2019 jobs per year, slightly in

excess of the RSS target of +1860 per annum but well below the SNEAP/SELA

predictions.

4.32 The provision for some growth above RSS targets seems a strategically sound

decision based on past trends, as outlined in earlier discussion on jobs targets.

WNELS assigns most of this additional growth to B8 development from 2008-2016

in order to support the established demand for distribution in this area and existing

supply pipeline. While defensible at the time, the slump in development since 2008

throws into doubt whether such high rate of B8 development has been kept up;

completions for 2008 onwards show this has not been the case. It may be

necessary to delay further significant growth similar to 2001-08 levels until future

years, and may even be possible to make a strategic decision for alternative sectors

of the economy to be prioritised for growth (providing sufficient demand can be

established). The WNELS conclusion that manufacturing will continue to decline at

2001-08 levels until at least 2016 is considered robust.

4.33 Based on the projected net employment change shown above, it was assumed in

WNELS that the following floorspace would need to be provided in the relevant

periods of the plan. The row showing the combined net requirement for Industrial

and Warehousing should be noted as this assumes there is likely to be some change

of use and greater co-ordination between these functions as the economy changes:

Table 4.4 – ‘Total floorspace requirement (sqm) by Sector (Calculated using indicative

Employment Growth in Table 4.3 above) (Copied from WNELS (July 2010))

4.34 Looking against the total supply pipeline across West Northamptonshire from the

WNELS assessment, broadly enough land was available at 2008 to support the

delivery of the predicted 36,350 jobs from 2008-26. Achieving this rate of delivery

would not require any significant new allocations to be made through the LDF,

although certain sites are potentially constrained so land availability would have to

be kept under review. Full schedules of these sites are produced as an appendix to

WNELS and are subject to monitoring and review, but summary graphs and tables

are given below:

Table 4.5 – ‘Floorspace Pipeline Available 2008-2026’ (Copied from WNELS (July

2010))

Figure 4.1 – Demand vs. Supply of Available Land for Office Floorspace Requirements

(Copied from WNELS (July 2010))

Figure 4.2 – Demand vs. Supply of Available Land for Industrial and Warehousing

Floorspace Requirements (Copied from WNELS (July 2010))

Location of future supply:

4.35 WNELS sets the jobs target for West Northamptonshire as a whole, which is

consistent with previous evidence base studies. Similarly, the new jobs target for

the pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy is developed on a West Northamptonshire-

wide level. WNELS states that the problem of an ageing population means South

Northamptonshire District, and to a lesser extent Daventry District, generates very

little extra labour force to support jobs creation. However, WNELS acknowledges

the existing supply pipeline is spread across the plan area and cannot realistically

be interfered with (i.e. the extensive commitments at DIRFT).

4.36 WNELS does state that where possible the identification of new office supply

should be directed to support trends in population growth and strategic priorities.

Northampton town is prioritised for up to 250,000sqm of new office development

and Daventry 50,000sqm to support aspirations to diversify the economy. South

Northamptonshire is only identified for replacement and renewal of B1 uses due to

low labour force growth.

4.37 In terms of identifying new locations, Northampton is the preferred destination for

a strategic investment site for primarily office use to facilitate demand in this

sector. Silverstone is not identified in WNELS for the intensification of employment

on the basis of low population growth, but the study notes that proposals in the

Silverstone Masterplan may change this assumption. WNELS states that any

significant non-motorsport employment at Silverstone would impact targets

elsewhere but it may be that specialist development is unrelated to the wider

labour market.

Growth Sector Split and Land Requirements for the West

Northamptonshire Jobs Target – Pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy:

4.38 The revised population and labour force predictions for the dwellings trajectory in

the pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy have led to the generation of the new jobs

target of 16,000 net additional jobs from 2008-2026. The initial approach to

developing a sector and land use requirement for this revision aims to simply scale

the WNELS methodology against this target. This adopts the same assumptions

about growth sectors in a given period:

Table 4.6 – Re-Scaled WNELS Sector Target for Employment Growth based on the

revised–pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy Jobs Target (Copied from WNELS Update

(February 2011))

4.39 Assuming the loss of manufacturing jobs continues at 2001-08 rates (which is

supported by WNELS and available evidence) the specific targets for B1, B8 and

Non-B jobs are approximately half those suggested by the old WNELS target. Using

the phasing suggestions from WNELS, jobs would be delivered thus over the

remaining plan period:

Scaled Targets for Job Creation per annum (based on original WNELS assumptions)

ABI Actual Indicative Net Employment Change Post-2008 RSS

Target

2001-08

Trend

2008-16 2016-21 2021-26 2008-26 per

annum

Industrial (B2) -528 -528 -191 -191 -341 -191

Warehousing (B8) 1126 571 117 117 319 231

Office (B1) 954 463 463 463 463 913

Total B-Use Jobs 2057 506 389 389 441 953

Total Non-B 709 359 459 459 415 906

All Jobs 2765 865 848 848 856 1859

Table 4.7 – Re-Scaled WNELS Sector Target for Employment Growth 2008-2026

(Calculated from WNELS Update (February 2011))

4.40 When translated into a new floorspace requirement the following area is likely to

be needed:

Scaled Targets for sqm Land Use Requirement (based on original WNELS assumptions)

(by Period)

Indicative Net Land Requirement Change Post-

2008

RSS

Target

2008-16 2016-21 2021-26 2008-26 per

annum

Industrial (B2) -147840 -33425 -33425 -214690 -120330

Warehousing (B8) 401800 51519 51519 504838 365904

B2 and B8 Combined 253960 18094 18094 290148 245574

Office (B1) 66640 41650 41650 149939 295812

Total 320600 59743 59743 440087 541386

Table 4.8 – Re-Scaled WNELS Sector Target for Floorspace Requirements (sqm) based

on the revised–pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy Jobs Target (Calculated from

WNELS Update (February 2011))

4.41 This total land requirement should be considered an academic exercise. More than

enough land is clearly available to meet and exceed the target. Although this has

been used to guide thinking on the extent of new allocations needed, it is

unrealistic to think no new land should be made available (see conclusions below).

4.42 The phasing of these suggested targets is unlikely to follow the pattern set out

above. The impact of the recession has been more severe than initially indicated in

the WNELS report, which is used to guide this phasing. Even growth in-line with half

of 2001-08 trends is unlikely for B8 uses in the early years of the plan, although

demand and land is available to meet and exceed the target across the whole plan

period (e.g. through the further expansion of DIRFT). The same is true for B1

development, where demand and construction has been low since 2008 but is

strategically prioritised and land is available across the whole plan period. Based on

the re-scaling, overall B-Use targets are less than half the RSS target for 2016

onwards. Given the likelihood of a slow recovery until later in the plan period, but

then the anticipated return to strong growth it is more realistic to think this

delivery should be re-profiled and shown to increase during the plan period, from a

low in 2008-10.

4.43 Limited comment is offered on Non-B Jobs provision in this technical paper,

although the re-scaled provision is considered sufficient to support development

and in-line with infrastructure requirements. Once again, there is the clear

potential that the regeneration of specific places and town centres and

revitalisation of the retail offer may lead to these targets being exceeded.

4.44 There are reasons to expect that the requirement for Non-B Jobs could exceed the

re-scaled WNELS target. The original target (taken from the RSS) was largely based

on servicing needs such as education, retail and healthcare for the increased

population. A reduced housing target clearly has an impact on the needs generated

in these areas. However, West Northamptonshire has historically under-performed

in some non-B sectors as identified in both the SNEAP and SELA documents. There

may be sufficient demand to overcome some of this shortfall, such as the

regeneration and improvement of retail provision in Northampton Town Centre to

be delivered through the CAAP.

4.45 Even with reduced population growth, the demographic profile resulting from the

new housing target may still generate a high requirement for growth in some non-B

sectors. Much of the population increase is set to be concentrated amongst older

age groups, likely to generate a relatively greater demand for health and social

care. Employment growth in education may also remain stronger than expected

under reduced population growth projections depending on the performance of

further education centres like the University of Northampton.

4.46 A higher than expected growth in non-B jobs could reduce the labour force

available to work in the office, warehouse and industrial sectors and subsequent

demand in these areas. Performance in non-B employment trends will form an

important element of the future monitoring and review of employment growth.

Conclusions to support the employment allocations in the Joint Core

Strategy

4.47 This technical paper has already made it clear that the 16,000 jobs target in the

pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy is for monitoring purposes only. It is also

evident that more than enough land is already available in the supply pipeline to

meet and exceed this target providing the market supports demand.

4.48 The target has been used when considering new allocations through the Joint Core

Strategy and for this reason the area being proposed is significantly less than if a

higher level of growth was being proposed. However, the new realistic and reduced

target has not over-ridden all strategic decisions or suggestions of the evidence-

base. For this reason, the pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy still considers it

necessary to support development at Silverstone, the provision of a Technology

Realm at Northampton North (a ‘strategic investment site’ as suggested by WNELS)

and the provision of employment land on SUEs to support sustainability objectives

(including land to provide local amenities and non-B jobs). The Joint Core Strategy

also continues to accommodate the strategic priorities of other development plan

documents such as the CAAP. The suggested provision of offices in Northampton

Town Centre (c.100,000sqm of B1 use) is retained even though this level of

provision now seems optimistic in-light of the revised suggested targets and may

need re-profiling to later in the plan period (although this land is already part of the

supply pipeline from WNELS anyway).

4.49 The basis for allocating such land is explained elsewhere in the technical papers for

specific development sites.

4.50 This technical paper acknowledges that considering the supply pipeline and

additional allocations the 16,000 jobs target could easily be exceeded. Whether this

is achieved will depend on a strong economic recovery and larger increases in the

labour force than predicted. The area for employment available is likely to allow for

more choice and competition than suggested by WNELS, but this is the case

regardless of targets due to the ongoing difficult economic climate and low demand

for development. Having an ample supply of land is unlikely to stifle demand

further, allows for some sites to lapse completely and will ideally facilitate targets

to be exceeded in future years.

Notes:

4.51 Higher SNEAP target – mainly related to non-B delivery not directly related to

servicing new housing growth, which is not very realistic.

4.52 Some of the additional JCS allocations (especially B1 outside CAAP) are aspirational

and help to deliver some of the qualitative SNEAP aspirations not directly linked to

town centre growth or development to support the new population such as the

Technology Realm or University expansion; these are not really quantified in SNEAP

but are good for key sectors. Silverstone could be sold in similar terms (as

committed supply and an aspiration).

Conclusions

5.1 The requirement for 16,000 net additional jobs as expressed in the Joint Core

Strategy shows a significant decrease from the monitoring target for the area set

out in the Regional Spatial Strategy. The new target is based on an integrated set

of population, household and labour force projections initially undertaken by Edge

Analytics, and then with further minor modifications by the Joint Planning Unit. A

separate technical paper has been published which sets out full details of the

changes from the original forecasts produced by Edge Analytics.

5.2 The recession, which started in 2008, has had a major impact on the delivery of

new homes being completed in the area. This in turn means that population

growth will be lower than originally forecast in the RSS. The population technical

paper shows that the age band which is now likely to be the fastest growing will be

the 70-89 age band, whilst the working age numbers are only increasing by about

5,000.

5.3 The following factors were projected from 2008-2026 in order to establish the

requirement for 16,000 net additional jobs. Travel to Work rates were held

constant at 2001 levels, rather than internalizing all new population and

subsequent employment growth within West Northamptonshire.

• Population increase 2008-26 and subsequent labour force growth based on

current economic activity rates.

• Labour Force increase based on increased retirement age for men and

women over the plan period

• The potential (aspirational) provision of jobs above labour force projections,

based on extrapolating historic trends from 2001-08

• Provision for a greater percentage of the population working 2nd

jobs.

The aspiration to create jobs above labour force growth is considered realistic but

will require further increase in economic activity rates or a reduction in out-

commuting.

5.4 The methodology for generating a revised jobs target based on the new housing

and population projections has been reviewed by Roger Tym and Partners in their

report ‘West Northants Further Evidence’ and it has been considered consistent

compared with earlier targets.

5.5 Even taking into account the Government’s announced changes to the retirement

age, the net increase in jobs for the period 2008-2026 is modest compared to what

was delivered 2001-2008. However, because the job requirement is a “net” figure,

a substantial number of new jobs will be required to replace those lost in the

recession, and likely to be lost in the public sector during the next 2-3 years, in

addition to those required to meet population growth. Making up losses from the

2008 baseline in addition to the 16,000 target will be essential to create the overall

jobs ratio desired in West Northamptonshire.

5.6 Some of the net growth may be ‘spaceless’ as existing employment sites are

returned active commercial use following the recession, or replace staff lost

previously and thus operate at relatively higher densities. The vast majority will

require the development of land for employment provision.

5.7 Based on the supply pipeline established in the West Northamptonshire

Employment Land Study (July 2010) a supply pipeline exists that can easily meet

and exceed the proposed jobs target. The supply pipeline was sufficient to meet

the old RSS target of providing 37,000 net additional jobs for 2001-21. This allows a

significant element of choice and flexibility in potential provision, but it is not

considered feasible to try and remove sites from the available supply.

5.8 In addition to the existing supply pipeline, WNELS suggested an additional strategic

allocation for employment land around Northampton, especially to support

demand for technology and high-end office activities. Note is also made of the

potential for large-scale provision of employment land at DIRFT and Silverstone.

5.9 It must be stressed that the new jobs target based on housing and population

projections has been developed for monitoring purposes only and is considered a

minimum. Patterns of economic demand and population growth could lead to this

being exceeded. Given the available supply, any proposed growth by sector should

also be considered indicative although it will be necessary to make sure land is

always available to meet the minimum established requirements. Monitoring and

review of employment land development and jobs growth form an essential

component of the Joint Core Strategy in conjunction with monitoring housing and

population trends.

5.10 The pre-Submission Joint Core Strategy has placed a great emphasis on ensuring

consistency with other documents in the Local Development Framework

(particularly the Northampton CAAP) and meeting the suggestions of the

employment evidence base outlined above. Whilst significant reference is made to

the revised jobs target, this accounts for why land is available that could

significantly exceed this figure. For example, the support of DIRFT and Silverstone

Circuit, provision of a Technology Realm at the Northampton North SUE and

support for the provision of large scale B1 Office Development in Northampton

Town Centre (as established in the Northampton CAAP) are important strategic

objectives supported by the evidence base that are not overridden by the reduced

target. The intention to develop these sites should be retained within the revised

net target, with demand and delivery carefully monitored over the plan period.

5.11 While the level of potential land supply remains significant, the revised growth

projections have had a significant impact on allocations considered in the Joint Core

Strategy, such as the lack of any proposed development at Junction 16 of the M1.

5.12 Robust proposals for employment provision have been developed in the pre-

Submission Joint Core Strategy. As explained in this paper, these have been guided

by the extensive suggestions of the available employment evidence base. However,

they have been subsequently adapted and are broadly consistent with the new

employment growth projections set out in this paper that have been developed as

part of the housing and population projections underpinning the pre-Submission

Joint Core Strategy.