northeast regional climate center dr. art degaetano, professor department of eas director of the...
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Dr. Art DeGaetano, Professor Department of EAS Director of the NOAA Northeast Climate Center, Cornell University Climate Change in the Northeast U.S.
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Global Average Annual Temperature Anomaly ( o F) From meteorological stations 1880-2005 Hansen et al. (2001) J. Geophysical Res. Vol 106, p. 23,947-23,963 Data from http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Time-series represents an areally weighted average of data from 56 stations in the Northeast that have been in operation continuously since 1900. Data from the NOAA-NCDC (ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn). Average Annual Temperature in the Northeast 1899-2000
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Linear trend in annual temperature ( o F) from 1899-2000 for the Northeast. The change was estimated from a linear regression of annual average temperature for each station. Spatial Variation of Annual Temperature Trend 1899-2000
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Average Winter Temperature in the Northeast 1899-2000 Time series represent areally weighted average of 56 meteorological stations.
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Spatial Variation Winter Linear Temperature Trend 1970-2000 Linear trend in winter temperature ( o F) from 1970-2000 for the Northeast. The change was estimated from a linear regression of annual average temperature for each station.
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Spatial Variation of Growing Season (32 o F) Trend 1970-2000 Linear trend in length of growing season (days) from 1970-2000 for New England. The change was estimated from a linear regression of annual average growing season length for each station.
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Average Annual Precipitation in the Northeast, 1899-2000 Time series represent average of 79 meteorological stations in the Northeast.
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu 16% 3% 23% 31% 15% 67% 20%
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Extreme Precipitation Events (>2 in in 48 hrs)
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Spatial Variation of Snowfall Trend 1970-2000 Linear trend in DJF snowfall s estimated from a linear regression of data for each station
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Lake Effect
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground 1970-2000
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Average Ice Out Day Trend 1925-2001 (27 Lakes) 6 days earlier over last 77 years 13 days earlier over last 30 years Ice Out Dates compiled by Hodgkins et al., 2002.
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu
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- Dates of Center-of-Volume River Flow Smooths of the winter/spring (Jan 1 to May 31) center-of-volume dates for the 13 longest record, rural, unregulated rivers in New England (Hodgkins et al., 2003)
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Lake Levels Erie Ontario
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Sea Level Rise
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Sea Surface Temperatures Gulf of Maine 1.1 o F warming over last 150 years 1.6 o F warming over last 150 years
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu ECWS Frequency
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Hurricane Frequency
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu ClimAID: Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State To provide New York State with cutting-edge information on its vulnerability to climate change and to facilitate the development of adaptation policies informed by both local experience and state-of-the-art scientific knowledge.
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Sectors - Agriculture/Ecosystems - Coastal Zones - Energy - Public Health - Transportation/ Communication - Water Resources Key Themes - Climate Risks - Vulnerability - Adaptation Cross Cutting Elements - Science/Policy Linkages - Economic Policy Linkages - Environmental Justice
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu
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- Seasonality
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Quantitative Projections by Region: Mean Changes Region 6 Baseline 1971-2000 2020s2050s2080s Air temperature Min (Central Range) Max 44 F+ 0.5 (1.5 to 3.0) 4.0 F+ 2.5 (3.5 to 5.5) 7.5 F+ 3.0 (4.5 to 9.0) 10.5 F Precipitation Min (Central Range) Max 51 in- 5 (0 to + 5) 15 %-5 (0 to + 10) 15%-5 (+ 5 to 15) 20% 4 2 3 1 5 6 7 Region 5 Baseline 1 1971-2000 2020s2050s2080s Air temperature Min (Central Range) Max 2 50 F0.5 (1.5 to 3.0) 3.5 F2.5 (3.0 to 5.5) 7.5 F3.0 (4.0 to 8.0) 10.0 F Precipitation Min (Central Range) Max 51 in- 5 (0 to + 5) 10 %-5 (0 to + 10) 10 %0 (5 to 10) 15% Utica, Yorktown Heights, Saratoga Springs, Hudson Correctional Facility Boonville, Watertown
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu
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- Sea level rise Source: CCSR Directly from GCMs No downscaling Thermal expansion Glacier melt Ice cap/ice sheet melt Local land sinking/subsidence Local water surface elevation
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Sea level rise Source: CCSR Rapid ice melt based on paleoclimate data 20,000 10,000 0.39-0.47 in/yr Local modeling for Hudson to Troy river has low topographic gradient change at Battery = change at Albany
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Source: CCSR NYC Troy New York City Baseline (1971-2000) 2020s2050s2080s Sea level rise (central range) NA+ 2 to 5 in+ 7 to 12 in+ 12 to 23 in Rapid Ice-Melt Sea level rise NA~ 5 to 10 in~ 19 to 29 in~ 41 to 55 in Troy Baseline (1971-2000) 2020s2050s2080s Sea level rise (Central range) NA+ 1 to 4 in+ 5 to 9 in+ 8 to 18 in Rapid Ice-Melt Sea level rise NA~ 4 to 9 in~ 17 to 26 in~ 37 to 50 in Sea level rise
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Years Flooding -- relative contribution of rain vs pet will lead to floods or droughts, and uncertainty less snow / more rain larger storm rainfall amounts longer growing season ++ more ET/ drier soils + = ?
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu
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- Water Quality
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu INTEGRATING CLIMATE INTO LOCAL ADAPTATION DECISIONS
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu About the NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu NOAA Regional Climate Centers
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Mission of the RCCs Facilitate the collection, dissemination, quality and use of climate data Monitor regional climate conditions and their impacts Conduct applied research
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Web Presence
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu climod.nrcc.cornell.edu
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu 43 http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu 44 AgACIS (Custom NRCS data and products) http://agacis.rcc-acis.org/
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu 45 http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu
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- 52 Map Navigation Tools GIS Tools Metadata
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu Operational Monitoring Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_regional.html
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- Northeast Regional Climate Center www.nrcc.cornell.edu
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- Art DeGaetano: [email protected] (607) 255-0385 Questions?