northern kentucky/greater cincinnati 2015 forecast cincinnati consensus forecasting committee...
TRANSCRIPT
Northern Kentucky/Greater Cincinnati 2015 Forecast
Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee
Prepared October 2014
Real GDP – Chained 2009 Dollars(Annual Percentage Change)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Est.
2014
Fore
cast
201
5
-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%
United States Cincinnati MSA
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; 2014/2015 forecasts: Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee
Real GDP Forecast
US since 2009: 5 years real GDP growth
US GDP growth continues…2014: up 2.2%2015: up 2.9%
NKY/Cincy Region since 2003: Slower than US average2010-2012: Greater than US average (Mfg. uptick)
NKY/Cincy Region GDP grows, but slower than US…2014: up 2.1%2015: up 2.7%
2.7%
Personal Income Trends (Cincinnati MSA, $ thousands)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
$100,000,000
Personal incomePersonal income less transfer payments
$1,0
00s
Federal Share of State Revenues
FY 2000
FY 2002
FY 2004
FY 2006
FY 2008
FY 2010
FY 201225%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
37%
39%
41%
Percent of State Revenues from Federal Government
Kentucky Ohio
Federal Share FY2012• Kentucky: 35.7%• Ohio: 34.9%
Federal Share Annual Avg. 2000-2008: • Kentucky: 31.7%• Ohio: 30.6%• National avg.: 28.9% Federal Share Annual Avg. 2009-2012:• Kentucky: 37%• Ohio: 36.3%• National avg.: 33.4%
Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts’ analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of State Government Finances, accessed January 23, 2014.
Employment(Annual Growth Rate in Percent)20
03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Est.
2014
Fore
cast
201
5
-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%
U.S. U.S. ForecastCincinnati MSA Cincinnati MSA Forecast
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 forecasts Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee
Employment(thousands of jobs)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Est.
201
4
Fore
cast
201
5
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
940
960
980
1,000
1,020
1,040
1,060
1,080
U.S. Cincinnati MSA
U.S
. Job
s in
Tho
usan
ds
Cinc
inna
ti M
SA Jo
bs in
Tho
usan
ds
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee
Employment Forecast
Q2 2013- Q2 2014NKY/Cincy: up 1.9% (19,000 jobs)US: up 1.8% (2.4M jobs)
Calendar Year 2015NKY/Cincy: up 2% (20,850 jobs)US: up 2%
2.0%
Manufacturing Jobs(Annual Percentage Change)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Estim
ate
2014
Fore
cast
201
5
-14.0%-12.0%-10.0%
-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%
U.S. Cincinnati MSA
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 forecasts Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee
New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized(12-month Moving Average)
3835
3
3871
8
3908
3
3944
8
3981
4
4017
9
4054
4
4090
9
4127
5
4164
0
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
U.S. Cincinnati MSA
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Cinc
inna
ti M
SA
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau; Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee
Residential Construction Forecast
2004: Permits peak at 13,000 2010: Permits bottom out at 3,200 (76% drop)
Short-term trends GOOD:2014: Permits up 5 percent2015: Permits up 7 percent at 4,9002015: Mortgage Bankers Association forecast- 30-yr. fixed rate BELOW 5.3% all year
Long-term trends NOT-SO-GOOD:Housing demand SOFTENS, due to demographic trends
7.0%
Unemployment Rate
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Est.
201
4
Fore
cast
201
5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
United States Cincinnati MSA
Perc
ent
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 forecasts Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee
Unemployment Forecast
GOOD:2015 Average Unemployment DOWN 5.0%
NOT-SO-GOOD:Civilian Labor Force DOWN 2.1 % since 2009 peakBLS: Civilian Labor Force trend DOWN next 10 years
5.0%
Civilian Labor Force
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,000,000
1,020,000
1,040,000
1,060,000
1,080,000
1,100,000
1,120,000
1,140,000
Cincinnati MSA
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
US Retail Sales Forecast
OVERALL:2015: up 5.7%
HOLIDAY SEASON:2014: up, but not sensational5.7%
Annual Inflation(Percentage Change, CPI-U)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Estim
ate
2014
Fore
cast
201
5
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 forecasts Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee
Forecast Risks
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”-Niels Bohr, Nobel prize-winning physicist
Population Growth Rate Slowing(Annual Percentage Change)
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
United States Cincinnati MSA
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
1.2%
0.04%
1.4%
0.07%
Economic, Population GrowthGo Hand-in-Hand
• 30-50% of economic growth tied to regional population growth
• Impacts size, composition of workforce
US Old Age Dependency Ratios
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2228
35 37 37
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
Employment to Population Ratio
• Employment rates for 25 to 54-year-olds remain statistically lower in Ohio and Kentucky
Employment to Population Ratio
Highest (North Dakota) 85.6%
Lowest (West Virginia) 67.8%
Ohio ranked 31st 76.2%
Kentucky ranked 46th 71.8%Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts’ analysis of data from the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Cincinnati Forecast Summary
2.7% 2.0% 1.7% 7.0% 5.0%
GDP TotalEmp.
MFGEmp.
NewDwelling
Units
Unemp. Rate