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Email: [email protected] (07) 33124950

Australian Association of Social Workers (AASW)

Membership Trends and Opportunities Revisited

Northside Professional Services - April 2007



AASW Analysis recommissioned

• To inform the ‘marketing’ of the AASW to members and potential members

• Informed by previous studies, social work profession studies, labour market, higher education and membership data

• AASW - a microcosm of situation confronting the social work profession - environmental, internal and external pressures in maintaining relevance.

• A clear vision before marketing strategies can be built for the AASW membership



A ‘Marketing’ Approach

• Finding out what the ‘customer’ wants, creating products to satisfy those wants to the customer’s and provider’s mutual benefit

• ‘Customer’ is the members and potential members of the AASW, the provider is the AASW and its product is the advantages of membership

• ‘Products’ have a life cycle, the customer body is not uniform (having ‘segments’) and the product is modified to meet the wants of ‘segments’ and strategies selected accordingly



AASW Membership Studies• Indicated membership growth was slowing, after

strong growth in the mid 1990’s – a mature market. • In light of the dynamics of the industry several

strategies were discussed.• Enter New Market Segments – non social workers in

the ‘helping professions’ may benefit from an ‘associate membership’ or change the membership criteria so that these ‘allied’ professionals can assume a ‘full’ membership?

• Win Competitors Customers –similar organisations that potential AASW members are part of?

• A rethink about how ‘broad a church’ the AASW wants to be. Should it be an association of ‘Social Workers’ or an association of ‘Social Welfare Professionals’?



• Opportunities to Convert NonUsers by targeting Social Workers not members of the AASW?

• Clues from 2005 analysis to making product more attractive– Ageing of Profile – Possibility of maintaining a professional

connection in retirement and semi retirement– Mentoring for Students – especially ESLs– A tool in reducing professional isolation remote areas/ESL– A packaging up of membership to compliment the various stages

of career– Opportunities exist to convert ‘non users’ in health, community and

state based authorities (happy hunting grounds)– No gender imbalance, small numbers may be gained through

indigenous social workers– Examine why so many stay so briefly– Bastion for private practice and contracted workers



2007 Study features

• Retake of membership trends • Modeling of AASW age profile over time• Changes in employment sectors• Potential contribution of branches• Link between recent graduates and membership

• Opportunities for AASW eligibility in the broader

‘helping professions’ • Analysis of membership’s regional profile• A focus upon AASW members in the ‘mental

health’ field



• IMIS (Integrated Membership Information System) contains the records of 14,331 individuals who have or have had an association with the AASW.

• 6,222 current active members (March 2007) and

8,109 Inactive members (Ex members).

• Due to data fields associated with these individuals being incomplete or invalid, small numbers of these individuals ‘drop off’ in parts of the analysis.

• Due to the administrative effects upon membership estimations, the March data is extrapolated forward to June 2007 based upon previous histories.



AASW Membership 1989 - 2007 (2007 Figure Extrapolated)

2550 2650

30003192

3367

3659

4031

4323

4850

5706

60736210 6300 6282 6386 6288

61656303

6440

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Num

ber o

f Ind

ivid

ual M

embe

rs

2007 extrapolation indicates that overall AASW membership has exhibited a recent growth spurt.

May be a late effect associated with the expansion of the mental health rebate scheme.

It appears to be ‘bouncing’ around in the 6,300 to 6,500 range.

About half the ‘social work’ workforce.



Breakup of 'Mental Health' AASW Members by Area of Work

Commonwealth Agencies, 18, 2%

Education and Training, 25, 3%

Health, Hospital and Aged Care, 399, 42%

Local Government Agencies, 10, 1%NGO and Community, 104,

11%

Not Paid Employment, 6, 1%

Other,Overseas, Legal Aid, Justice, AASW, 34, 4%

Private Practice and Industry, 182, 20%

State Government Agency, 153, 16%

Just under 1 in 6 AASW members has a ‘mental health’ connection. A relatively higher proportion of private practitioners are engaged in mental health work (20% in mental health vs 14 % overall AASW membership).



What are the dynamics of this growth?

• Use point to point data (18+ Months)

• Members in August 2005 Analysis - 6,175

• New Members - 851

• 'Returned' Members - 314

• Members in 2005 not in 2007 - 1,118

• Members in March 2007 Analysis - 6,222

• A high rate of ‘churn’?

• Changes in age structure?



Number of AASW Exmembers by Year

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f E

xmem

ber

s

Over 1 in 10 members appear to leave every year – Is there a way

to repackage the ‘product’ to address this?



Modelling the AASW Age Profile

• Concern that AASW is rapidly greying• Two snapshots of recent data permit modelling

of age profile over next six years• Refines information presented in 2005• Assumptions

– average annual growth of 2.5% (industry average)– 7,400 members by 2013– Age profiles of recruitment and departure similar to

last 2 years– High rate of retention for the over 60 years of age

cohort



AASW Member Numbers by Age Group 2007

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Age 20-29 Age 30-39 Age 40-49 Age 50-59 Age 60+

Age Group

AS

SW

Mem

ber

s

7% 17% 27% 34% 15%



ASSW Member Numbers by Age Group 2010

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


Age Group

AA

SW

Mem

ber

s

6% 16% 25% 33% 20%



AASW Member Numbers by Age Group 2013

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


Age Group

AS

SW

Mem

ber

s

6% 15% 23% 32% 23%



Estimated AASW Members by Age Group 2007 - 2013

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f A

AS

W M

emb

ers

Age 20-29

Age 30-39

Age 40-49

Age 50-59

Age 60+

However, if half the over 60’s cease to be AASW members, membership will not move far beyond

2007 levels, while the rest of the social welfare professional workforce is

growing

Under this scenario, the best

the younger cohorts can do is

‘flat line’

In a professional context, there may be

opportunities to encourage mentoring

and bequests



Age Distribution of AASW Members who joined between August 2005 and March 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 70 71 72 78 84

Age

Nu

mb

er o

f N

ew M

emb

erss

ss

There appears to be substitution in terms of age profile – between those

who leave and those who join.



Age Profile of AASW 'Exmembers' that were active in 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 80 86 93

Age of 'Exmembers'

Nu

mb

er o

f 'E

xmem

ber

s'




-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f A

AS

W M

emb

ers

Age 20-29

Age 30-39

Age 40-49

Age 50-59

Age 60+

Assumption – a 1% average annual growth rate




-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

AA

SW

Me

mb

ers

Age 20-29

Age 30-39

Age 40-49

Age 50-59

Age 60+

Assumption – a 0% annual average growth rate in membership

More recruits and retention are needed here

And here

And especially here. Can these individuals be encouraged through

bequests?



Age Profile of Current AASW Members Engaged in Mental Health

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

Age Category

Num

ber

of M

embe

rs

Will Mental Health registration impetus help?

Possibly

Age profile of AASW members engaged in Mental Health is same as general AASW

population



Age Profile of New AASW Members engaged in 'Mental Health'

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

Age Category

Nu

mb

er o

f N

ew M

emb

ers However profile of new mental health AASW

recruits is somewhat younger



• Profile presents issues with how to maintain a reasonable representation of membership– effectively recruit new members or previous members– retain existing members– maintain engagement the older cohorts particularly as

they approach retirement or move through semiretirement

• However, there is the bigger picture issue of where the AASW sees itself in terms of the backdrop of the ‘helping professions’ in general



Australian Labour Force Data - 'Social Welfare Professionals' - 1996 to 2005 - Persons Employed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Aug-96

Nov-96

Feb-97

May-97

Aug-97

Nov-97

Feb-98

May-98

Aug-98

Nov-98

Feb-99

May-99

Aug-99

Nov-99

Feb-00

May-00

Aug-00

Nov-00

Feb-01

May-01

Aug-01

Nov-01

Feb-02

May-02

Aug-02

Nov-02

Feb-03

May-03

Aug-03

Nov-03

Feb-04

May-04

Aug-04

Nov-04

Feb-05

May-05

Aug-05

Quarter

Num

ber

of P

erso

ns E

mp

loye

d (T

hous

ands

)

SocialWorkers

Welfare andCommunityWorkers

Counsellors

Psychologists

Ministers ofReligion

Social WelfareProfessionals -nfd

Total

Revisiting Labour Force Data suggests opportunities to move

into similar ‘markets’ through review of AASW eligibility

Those eligible for AASW membership may find

employment in social welfare professional occupations that doubled nationally since 1996.



Australian Employment of Social Workers and Community and Welfare Workers (May 1997 - November 2006)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Quarter

Em

ploy

men

t (M

ovin

g A

vera

ge)e

eeee

)

SocialWorkers

WelfareandCommunityWorkers

One area that continues to grow particularly strongly is Welfare and Community Workers.



Makeup Of 'Helping Profession' Bachelor Level Graduates 2004

Behavioural Science, 415, 14%

Behavioural Science not elsewhere classified, 306, 10%

Care for the Aged, 11, 0%

Care for the Disabled, 106, 4%

Children's Services, 102, 3%

Counselling, 149, 5%

Human Welfare Studies and Services, 354, 12%Human Welfare Studies and

Services not elsewhere classified, 41, 1%

Social Work, 1194, 42%

Welfare Studies, 137, 5%

Youth Work, 110, 4%

Numbers of Bachelor level graduates that could conceivably

work in the Welfare and Community sector may exceed

Social Work graduates.



AASW members Estimated June 2007

6,440

Social Worker Workforce (November 2006)

13,500

Welfare and Community Workforce (November 2006)

38,100

Counsellor Workforce (November 2006)

16,100

Combined Workforce (November 2006)

67,700

Given the size of the sectors that overlap with social work or that the distinctions between the roles and responsibilities are somewhat blurred

– there are great opportunities for the organisation to be more relevant to the ‘helping

profession’ sector in general.



AASW members Estimated June 2007

6,440

Social Worker Graduates (Bachelor level – 2004)

1,174

Welfare and Community/Counselling Graduates (Bachelor level – 2004)

1,537

Combined Graduates (Bachelor level – 2004)

2,711

Especially at point of entry



On another slant, this ‘point of entry’ concept needs review with given the age profile and number of social work graduates (in 2004,

almost 700 up to 29 year olds graduated)

Number of Social Work Graduates by Age Category (2004)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Student is 20 through 29years of age




Student is 60 years of age ormore

Age Category

Num

ber

of S

ocia

l Wor

k G

radu

ates



Yet over the last six years, just under 500 up to 29 year olds have joined (10%?). Is there need for a

better introductory offer or a ‘starter pack’?

Age Profile of Individuals Joining the AASW over the last 6 years

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Person is 20 through 29years of age




Person is 60 years of age ormore

Age Category

Num

ber

of In

divi

dual

s



Breakup of 2007 AASW Membership by Area of Employment

Commonwealth Agencies5%

Education and Training8%

Health, Hospital and Aged Care28%

Local Government Agencies

2%

NGO and Community22%

Not Paid Employment1%

Other,Overseas, Legal Aid, Justice, AASW

4%

Private Practice and Industry

14%

State Government Agency16%



At first glance, there appears to be change between areas of employment.

However in percentage terms (and in numbers) these changes are small.

But they may be pointing to trends to change of structure in the industry and membership

Changes in Percentage Share of AASW Membership (2005 - 2007) by Employment Area

CommonwealthAgencies

Education andTraining

Health, Hospitaland Aged Care

Local GovernmentAgencies

NGO andCommunity

Not PaidEmployment

Other,Overseas,Legal Aid, Justice,

AASW

Private Practiceand Industry

State GovernmentAgency

Employment Area

Per

cen

t C

han

geu

u



AASW and the regions



There appears to be change in the location of AASW members.

However, remember in percentage terms (and in numbers) that these changes are small.

But they may be pointing to trends to change of structure of membership, promoting the concept of AASW membership as a reaction to professional isolation

Percentage Change in Regional Share of AASW Membership

-0.50%

-0.40%

-0.30%

-0.20%

-0.10%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

Non Regional Inner Regional Australia Outer Regional Australia Remote Australia Very Remote Australia

Regional Category

Per

cen

tage

Cha

ngee

ee



ItemNon Regional

Inner Regional Australia

Outer Regional Australia

Remote Australia

Very Remote Australia

Percentage Regional and Remote

Percentage Outer Regional to Very Remote

Number of AASW Members

4,413

1,193

444

35

15 28% 8%

Australian Population (2001)

12,870,978

4,018,541

2,018,977

330,025

174,719 34% 13%

AASW may be under represented in regional Australia. However the

trend, established in 2005, that regional members tend to retain

their memberships continues

Very remote

Remote

Outer Regional

Inner Regional

Non Regional



BranchNon Regional



Remote Australia




New South Wales

1,055

269

45 23% 3%

Hunter 124

26

2 18% 1%

Total NSW 1,179

295

47

-

- 22% 3%

NSW Population (2001)

4,694,705

1,347,919

486,566

39,451

6,575 29% 8%

Victoria 1,299

332

55 23% 3%

Vic Population (2001)

3,526,669

1,018,602

254,650

4,805

- 27% 5%

South Australia

396

51

48

6

3 21% 11%

SA Population (2001)

1,085,421

187,454

178,384

45,352

15,117 28% 16%

Australian Capital Territory

211 6 3% 0%

ACT Population (2001)

314,585

630 0% 0%

Is this due to poor service delivery in regional areas?

Or lack of penetration to the AASW?

Or are other occupational groups fulfilling the social work role?

Or just an overall difficulty to fill professional positions in regional and remote Australia?



BranchNon Regional



Remote Australia




Queensland 727

259

17

7

3 28% 3%

North Queensland

3 9

185

6

2 99% 94%

Total Queensland

730 268

202

13

5 40% 18%

Qld Population (2001)

1,897,939 936,268

642,323

94,353

54,434 48% 22%

Northern Territory

87

4 100% 100%

NT Population (2001)

- -

106,795

41,729

49,046 100% 100%



BranchNon Regional



Remote Australia




Western Australia

509

104

44

16

7 25% 10%

WA Population (2001)

1,342,218

231,941

186,314

89,354

51,331 29% 17%



BranchNon Regional



Remote Australia




Tasmania 2

137

44 99% 24%

Tas Population (2001)

-

300,062

160,882

8,492

2,831 100% 36%



The AASW Branches



Branch

Number of Members in 2005 Analysis (August 2005) New Members

'Returned' Members

Members in 2005 not in 2007 Raw Total

Members in 2007 Analysis (March 2007)

Movement Between Branches

Growth % (2005 - 2007)

Gross Loss of Members % (over 2005 - 2007 period)

New South Wales 1,397 183 65 265 1,380 1,379 1- -1.29% 19%Hunter 173 2 2 22 155 152 3- -12.14% 13%Victoria 1,659 237 88 295 1,689 1,697 8 2.29% 18%Queensland 1,008 128 69 185 1,020 1,018 2- 0.99% 18%North Queensland 197 34 7 37 201 206 5 4.57% 19%South Australia 505 81 21 93 514 510 4- 0.99% 18%Western Australia 664 96 44 114 690 687 3- 3.46% 17%Tasmania 185 21 3 30 179 185 6 0.00% 16%ACT 204 35 9 31 217 219 2 7.35% 15%NT 83 15 2 12 88 91 3 9.64% 14%Overseas 97 17 2 31 85 76 9- -21.65% 32%Unassigned 3 2 2 3 4 2 2- -33.33% 100%Total 6,175 851 314 1,118 6,222 6,222 - 0.76% 18%

Looking at growth at a branch level. The figures here are not extrapolated. However, they may

indicate the areas where growth could be expected. A feature to be mindful of is sites that may have a

high ‘churn’.



Distribution of 'Helping Profession' Graduates (2004) by Australian State or Territory

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA

Australian State or Territory

Num

ber

of G

radu

ates

sss

Social Work

Psychology

Youth Work

Welfare Studies

Human Welfare Studies and Services not elsewhere classified

Human Welfare Studies and Services

Counselling

Children's Services

Care for the Disabled

Care for the Aged

Behavioural Science not elsewhere classified

Behavioural Science

It is interesting to look at branch potential in terms of the background

relationship to social work employment and ‘helping profession’

professionalisation in the state context.



Makeup of 2004 'Helping Profession' Bachelor Level Graduates by State or Territory

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA

State or Territory

Nu

mb

er o

f G

rad

uat

es

Youth Work

Welfare Studies

Social Work

Human Welfare Studiesand Services notelsewhere classified

Human Welfare Studiesand Services

Counselling

Children's Services

Care for the Disabled

Care for the Aged

Behavioural Science notelsewhere classified

Behavioural Science

Focusing now upon Social Work, Welfare and Community and

Counselling at the Bachelor Level.



Estimated Social Workers in Workforce - Australian States and Territories (1997 - 2007)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Quarter

Nu

mb

er o

f S

oci

al W

ork

erss

sss

NSW

VICTORIA

QUEENSLAND

SA

WA

TASMANIA

ACT

NT

Due to a relatively smaller sample, the state level

employment numbers bounce around a bit, however the DEWR uses this source in its website.

The large states’ figures are considered fairly accurate.



Branch

Share of Australian Population

Share of Social Worker Workforce (2007)

Share of Social Worker Graduates (All Levels) (2004)

Share of Social Worker Graduates (Bachelor Only) (2004)

Share of AASW Membership (2007)

New South Wales and Hunter

33.1%

19.3% 23.6% 23.1% 24.6%

Victoria 24.7%

35.6% 31.9% 30.6% 27.3%

Queensland and North Queensland 19.7% 14.1% 15.6% 15.8% 19.7%

South Australia 12.5% 12.6% 13.9% 14.0% 8.2%

Western Australia 10.0% 10.4% 11.5% 12.4% 11.0%

Tasmania 2.4%

4.4% 2.9% 3.4% 3.0%

Northern Territory 1.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.7% 1.5%

Australian Capital Territory 1.6% 2.2% - - 3.5%

Numbers

20,605,000

13,500

1,391

1,174

6,222

Opportunities may exist where there are apparent imbalances between workforce, education

and AASW membership.



BranchShare of Australian Population

Share of Community and Welfare/ Counseling Workforce (2005)

Share of Community and Welfare/Counseling Graduates (All Levels) (2004)

Share of Community and Welfare Graduates/ Counseling (Bachelor Only) (2004)


33.1%34.1% 17.1% 18.1%

Victoria 24.7% 27.1% 24.9% 32.2%

Queensland and North Queensland 19.7% 15.9% 25.2% 31.4%

South Australia 12.5% 8.5% 16.8% 2.1%

Western Australia 10.0% 8.9% 12.5% 15.3%

Tasmania 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0%

Northern Territory 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%

Australian Capital Territory 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0%

Numbers 20,605,000

52,300 2,865 1,537



Branch

Share of Australian Population

Share of Social Work and Community and Welfare Workforce/Counseling Combined (2005)

Share of Social Work and Community and Welfare Workforce/ Counseling Combined Graduates (All Levels) (2004)

Share of Social Work and Community and Welfare Workforce/ Counseling Combined Graduates (Bachelor Only) (2004)


33.1% 32.0% 19.2% 20.3%

Victoria

24.7% 30.0% 27.2% 31.5%

Queensland and North Queensland 19.7% 15.0% 22.1% 24.6%

South Australia 12.5% 9.0% 15.8% 7.2%

Western Australia 10.0% 9.0% 12.2% 14.1%

Tasmania 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5%

Northern Territory 1.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3%

Australian Capital Territory 1.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6%

Numbers 20,605,000 66,200

4,256

2,711



Branch/StateNumber of New Members over last 6 Years (Aged 20 - 29 on Joining)

Number of Bachelor Level Social Work Graduates (Aged 20-29) 2004

New South Wales

111

Hunter 14

New South Wales total 125 196

Victoria 123 234

Queensland 76

North Queensland

16

Queensland total 92 108

South Australia 29 90

Western Australia 60 73

Tasmania 12 19

Northern Territory 6 -

Australian Capital Territory 17

Total 464 720



Summary• A mature marketing opportunity

continues for the AASW.• Modeling suggests that the AASW

needs to seriously retain retiring age members, existing members and recruit younger members particularly graduates (who appear to be underrepresented).

• Labour market and graduate data suggests a large and growing market for potential AASW members and associate members that may require ‘product modification’ of the membership rules.



Summary (cont.)

• Opportunities exist to package up the membership to compliment the various stages of career.

• Branches may have an opportunity to aggressively recruit members given indicative workforce and education data.

northside professional services email: [email protected] ph (07) 33124950 australian...

Documents

aasw membership slide

aasw membership studies

membership data aasw

membership opportunities

aasw analysis

potential aasw members

membership growth

aasw eligibility