northwest power and conservation council science policy exchange september 12, 2007
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Direct Survival of Migrating Salmonid Smolts in the Snake and Lower Columbia Rivers: Update with 2007 Results. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Science Policy Exchange September 12, 2007 Steve Smith [email protected] John Williams [email protected] - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Direct Survival of Migrating Salmonid Smolts in the Snake and
Lower Columbia Rivers: Update with 2007 Results
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilScience Policy Exchange September 12, 2007Steve Smith [email protected] Williams [email protected] Muir [email protected]
Outline• Juvenile survival and travel time
through the hydropower system
– Update with preliminary 2007 results
• Annual summer “survival memo” released 31 August 2007
Outline• SARs for Snake River spring-
summer Chinook• Difference in SARs between PIT-
tagged and untagged fish• Relationship between direct
juvenile survival and SARs
Survival and Travel Time for PIT-tagged Spring Migrants
0
50
100
150
200
Apr 9
Apr 16
Apr 23
Apr 30
May 7
May 14
May 21
May 28
1997
Weekly Mean Flow (kcfs)Lower Granite Dam
2006
2004 2007
Date at Lower Granite Dam
Mea
n F
low
(k
cfs)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Apr 9
Apr 16
Apr 23
Apr 30
May 7
May 14
May 21
May 28
1997
2001
Mean Percentage Spilled LGR, LGS, LMN
20062007
2004
Date
Per
cen
tag
e S
pil
l
6
8
10
12
14
16
Apr 9
Apr 16
Apr 23
Apr 30
May 7
May 14
May 21
May 28
2001
Weekly Mean Temperature Little Goose Dam
2006
20072004
Date
Per
cen
tag
e S
pil
l
Bonnevill
e
The D
alle
s
John D
ay
Hells Canyon
OxbowBrownlee
Priest Rapids
Wanapum
Rock Island
Rocky Reach
Wells
Chief Joseph
Grand Coulee
McN
ary
Ice H
arb
or
Litt
le G
oose
Low
er
Gra
nit
e
Low
er
Monum
enta
l
Juvenile detectors
Snake R. trap
Hatchery stream type Chinook (1993-2007)
0 200 400 600 800
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
KooskiaImnaha R. weir
Rapid RiverMcCallPahsimeroiSawtooth
Dworshak
R2=0.948, p<0.001
Distance to Lower Granite Dam (km)
Surv
ival
Rele
ase
to L
GR
Stream type ChinookSnake River Basin Hatcheries
Mean of index groups
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20070.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
X = 61.8%65.2%
Sur
viva
lRel
ease
to
LGR
Many fish are transported
Preliminary COMPASS estimates for 2007:
• 46% of non-tagged stream type Chinook
• 67% of non-tagged steelhead
Stream-type Chinook median travel timeLower Granite to Bonneville (461 km)
0
10
20
30
40
50
12 Apr 2 May 22 May 11 Jun
2006
2001
Date leaving Lower Granite Dam
Tra
vel
tim
e (d
ays)
2007
2004
Steelhead median travel timeLower Granite to Bonneville (461 km)
0
10
20
30
40
50
12 Apr 2 May 22 May 11 Jun
2006
2001
2007
Date leaving Lower Granite Dam
Tra
vel
tim
e (d
ays)
2004
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
X = 87.7%
85.5% (93.2%)
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
X = 73.1%
84.8% (92.1%)
Est
imat
ed s
urv
ival
Lower Monumental to McNary
SteelheadStream type Chinook
93.0
96.0
BON TDA
ICE
93.795.692.282.0 (90.6) 94.387.7
93.292.490.385.181.4 (90.0) 85.5MCNJDA LMO LGRLGO SRTBON
JDAMCN
LMO LGOLGR
SRT
Stream-typeChinook salmon reach survival
90.1
95.4
BON TDA
ICE
88.691.394.761.4 (78.4) 100.084.8
94.290.588.774.672.4 (84.9) 73.1MCNJDA LMO LGRLGO SRTBON
JDAMCN
LMO LGOLGR
SRT
Steelhead reach survival
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
X = 48.6%
56.0%
61.2%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20070.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
X = 34.1%
39.2%41.8%
??Est
imat
ed s
urv
ival
Snake River Trap to Bonneville
SteelheadStream type Chinook
Smolt-to-Adult Return (SAR) for Spring Migrants
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
1
2
3
4PIT-taggedunmarked
Snake River wild Chinook salmon (LGR to LGR + catch)
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20000
1
2
3
4
5
PIT-tagged wildunmarked wild
PIT-tagged hatchery
Snake River steelhead
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Dworshak Hatchery Chinook salmon *
PIT
unmarked
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Rapid River Hatchery Chinook salmon *
PITunmarked
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
McCall Hatchery Chinook salmon*
* Includes adjustment for harvest upstream of LGR
PITunmarked
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
Hatchery to hatchery SARs - no adjustment for smolt survival toLGR or adult harvest downstream of LGR- Data after 2005 CSS report
1970 1980 1990 20000
1
2
3
4
5
6
2-oceanonly
Raymond (1988)
afterPetrosky et al.(2001)
Williams et al. (2005)(updated)
Estimated Snake River wild spring-summerchinook salmon returns (escapement to upperSnake River dam + catch)
CSS PIT
Outmigration year
Sm
olt-
to-a
du
lt re
turn
Stream type Chinookbased on PIT tags
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20060.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
* Incomplete adult returns
In-river survial
SAR
Hyd
ropow
er
syst
em
surv
ival
SAR
(%)
Adult returnsincomplete
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
R2 = 0.281 P = 0.076
Yearling Chinook
Hydropower system survival
SAR
(%
)
Steelheadbased on PIT tags
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20070.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Adult returnsincomplete
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
SARIn-river survival
Migration year
Hyd
ropow
er
syst
em
surv
ival
SAR
(%)
Steelhead
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
R2 = 0.024 P = 0.65
Hydropower system survival
SAR
(%
)
Questions