northwest power planning council the fifth plan’s draft conservation resource assessment summary...

Northwest PowerPlanning Council

The Fifth Plan’s Draft The Fifth Plan’s Draft Conservation Resource Conservation Resource

AssessmentAssessment

Summary of Results To DateSummary of Results To Date

April 8, 2003April 8, 2003


Council’s First Power Plan Was Council’s First Power Plan Was Adopted 20 Years Ago This MonthAdopted 20 Years Ago This Month

First Action PlanFirst Action Plan– Called upon Bonneville and Region’s Utilities to Called upon Bonneville and Region’s Utilities to

Develop and Implement Wide Array of Conservation Develop and Implement Wide Array of Conservation ProgramsPrograms

– Called upon the State and Local Governments to Adopt Called upon the State and Local Governments to Adopt More Energy Efficient Building CodesMore Energy Efficient Building Codes

– Called upon the Federal Government to Adopt Energy Called upon the Federal Government to Adopt Energy Efficiency Standards for Appliances and New Efficiency Standards for Appliances and New Manufactured Homes Manufactured Homes


20 Years of Progress – 20 Years of Progress – Total PNW Conservation SavingsTotal PNW Conservation Savings

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

BPA and Utility Programs State Codes & Federal Standards

Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over Standards Have Produced Over 2600 aMW of Savings.2600 aMW of Savings.


PNW Electricity Supply PNW Electricity Supply Resource Mix in 2000Resource Mix in 2000

Coal13.3%

Conservation10.2%

Gas7.8%

Nuclear3.9%

Other1.3% Petroleum

0.4%

Hydro63.9%


But we haven’t done it all…But we haven’t done it all…

Changing electricity market and changing Changing electricity market and changing technology keep raising the bartechnology keep raising the bar

Task for the 5Task for the 5thth Power Plan Power Plan– Identify the cost-effective conservation Identify the cost-effective conservation

potentialpotential– Figure out how to make sure it gets Figure out how to make sure it gets

implementedimplemented


Status of Conservation Status of Conservation Assessment for 5Assessment for 5thth Plan Plan

Residential SectorResidential Sector– ““Economic Potential” CompletedEconomic Potential” Completed

Commercial SectorsCommercial Sectors– Non-Interactive Measures CompletedNon-Interactive Measures Completed– Preliminary Assessment of Potential Lighting Efficiency Preliminary Assessment of Potential Lighting Efficiency

Improvements CompletedImprovements Completed– HVAC & Building “Shell” Assessment UnderwayHVAC & Building “Shell” Assessment Underway– Assessment will be revised when Commercial Building Assessment will be revised when Commercial Building

Stock Assessment research is completedStock Assessment research is completed Industrial & Agriculture SectorsIndustrial & Agriculture Sectors

– Data Collection UnderwayData Collection Underway– Results Expected by June 1Results Expected by June 1


Scope of Residential Scope of Residential AssessmentAssessment

Three Building TypesThree Building Types– Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)– Multifamily (5-plex & above)Multifamily (5-plex & above)– Manufactured/Mobile HomesManufactured/Mobile Homes

Three VintagesThree Vintages– Pre-1980 Pre-1980 – 1980 – 19921980 – 1992– Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)


Space Conditioning Space Conditioning Measures/Technologies & PracticesMeasures/Technologies & Practices

Thermal Shell ImprovementsThermal Shell Improvements Duct Sealing Duct Sealing Heating System Conversions to Air-Source Heating System Conversions to Air-Source

Heat PumpsHeat Pumps Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning

System Efficiency UpgradesSystem Efficiency Upgrades


Non-Space Conditioning Non-Space Conditioning Measures/Technologies & PracticesMeasures/Technologies & Practices

Water HeatingWater Heating– Heat Pump & Solar Water HeatersHeat Pump & Solar Water Heaters– Efficient TanksEfficient Tanks– Waste Water Heat RecoveryWaste Water Heat Recovery

LightingLighting Major AppliancesMajor Appliances

– DishwashersDishwashers– Clothes WashersClothes Washers– RefrigeratorsRefrigerators– Room Air ConditionersRoom Air Conditioners


Residential Sector Residential Sector Conservation Supply CurveConservation Supply Curve

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3500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Levelized Cost ( Mills/ kWh in 2000$)

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Cumulative Technical Potential (aMW)Economic Cumulative Potential (aMW)

Summary of Residential Sector Summary of Residential Sector Conservation Resource PotentialConservation Resource Potential

by Major End Use by Major End Use

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200

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600

700

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025


for Appliances for Appliances

Clothes Washers

95%

Refrigerators1%Dishwashers

4%

290 aMW

15 aMW5 aMW


for Water Heating for Water Heating

Efficient Tanks29%

Waste Water Heat Recovery

4%

Heat Pump Water Heaters

67%

95 aMW

225 aMW

15 aMW


for Space Conditioning for Space Conditioning

System Commissioning

4%

Air Conditioner Upgrades

1%

Weatherization14%

New Construction7%

Heat Pump Conversions

27%

Duct Sealing21%

Heat Pump Upgrades

26%

160 aMW

125 aMW

80 aMW 40 aMW

150 aMW

5 aMW

20 aMW


Scope of Commercial Scope of Commercial AssessmentAssessment

Twelve building types:Twelve building types:– Office (2), Retail (2), Restaurant, Grocery, School (2), Office (2), Retail (2), Restaurant, Grocery, School (2),

Hospital, Warehouse, Lodging, OtherHospital, Warehouse, Lodging, Other

Four vintages corresponding to building code Four vintages corresponding to building code changes pre-1980, 1989, 1995, and 2001changes pre-1980, 1989, 1995, and 2001

Ten non-building activities: Ten non-building activities: – Water, wastewater, refrigeration, computers, street Water, wastewater, refrigeration, computers, street

lighting, traffic signals, power supplies, transformers … lighting, traffic signals, power supplies, transformers …


Commercial Buildings Commercial Buildings Measures/Technologies & PracticesMeasures/Technologies & Practices

LightingLighting– Continued improvement in efficacy of fluorescent, Continued improvement in efficacy of fluorescent,

incandescent and HID systemsincandescent and HID systems– Daylighting & ControlsDaylighting & Controls

Heating, Ventilating & Air Conditioning (HVAC)Heating, Ventilating & Air Conditioning (HVAC)– Equipment efficiency improvesEquipment efficiency improves– Commissioning Commissioning – ControlsControls– Better DesignBetter Design

EnvelopeEnvelope– Better windowsBetter windows


New Commercial Buildings New Commercial Buildings Measures/Technologies & PracticesMeasures/Technologies & Practices

Strong energy codes exist in OR & WA, butStrong energy codes exist in OR & WA, but

ppotential beyond code is significantotential beyond code is significant– Integrated Building Design 20-30% better than Integrated Building Design 20-30% better than

code possible & cost-effectivecode possible & cost-effective– Standard practice can be improved Standard practice can be improved

» Example: Lighting power density 30% less than Example: Lighting power density 30% less than code possible and cost-effective (1.1 to 0.8 w/sf)code possible and cost-effective (1.1 to 0.8 w/sf)


Commercial Sector Non-Commercial Sector Non-Building ConservationBuilding Conservation

340 MWa in the 20-30 mills/kWh range 340 MWa in the 20-30 mills/kWh range – Sewage treatment 74 MWa at 22 millsSewage treatment 74 MWa at 22 mills– LED traffic lights 14 MWa at 30 millsLED traffic lights 14 MWa at 30 mills– Exit signs 52 MWa at 27 millsExit signs 52 MWa at 27 mills– Water supply 30 MWa at 20 millsWater supply 30 MWa at 20 mills– Network PC management 73 MWa at 27 millsNetwork PC management 73 MWa at 27 mills– Packaged refrigeration 100 MWa ~30 millsPackaged refrigeration 100 MWa ~30 mills


Commercial Sector Commercial Sector Conservation Supply CurveConservation Supply Curve

Still under constructionStill under construction LightingLighting

– 250 MWa @ 20-30 mills in 2025, existing buildings250 MWa @ 20-30 mills in 2025, existing buildings– Another 150MWa retrofit in near term at <20 millsAnother 150MWa retrofit in near term at <20 mills– New buildings not estimated yet (first cut ~200MWa)New buildings not estimated yet (first cut ~200MWa)

Non-BuildingNon-Building– 340 MWa in the 20-30 mill range 2025340 MWa in the 20-30 mill range 2025

HVAC & WindowsHVAC & Windows– Pending and significant Pending and significant – Similar to last plan ~ 350MWa 10 to 60 millsSimilar to last plan ~ 350MWa 10 to 60 mills


Industrial Sector AssessmentIndustrial Sector Assessment

Historically, analysis of potential for Historically, analysis of potential for efficiency improvements in this sector have efficiency improvements in this sector have been far less detailed than other sectorsbeen far less detailed than other sectors

Fifth Plan’s Estimate may be even more soFifth Plan’s Estimate may be even more so– Resource potential contingent upon future Resource potential contingent upon future

regional industrial mix and processesregional industrial mix and processes– Given “globalization” of many PNW electricity Given “globalization” of many PNW electricity

intensive industries, the region’s future intensive industries, the region’s future industrial mix is highly uncertainindustrial mix is highly uncertain


Industrial Sector Assessment Industrial Sector Assessment ProcessProcess

Interview “Facility/Energy” Managers identified Interview “Facility/Energy” Managers identified by ICNU as representative of major PNW by ICNU as representative of major PNW industrial electricity users to assess:industrial electricity users to assess:– Current and planned levels of investment in efficiency Current and planned levels of investment in efficiency

improvementsimprovements– Potential impact of “globalization” and other factors on future Potential impact of “globalization” and other factors on future

capital investments in NW facilitiescapital investments in NW facilities– Ability to respond to utility assistance to improve efficiencyAbility to respond to utility assistance to improve efficiency

Use results to estimate potential “share” of Use results to estimate potential “share” of industrial electricity use that could cost-effectively industrial electricity use that could cost-effectively be made more efficientbe made more efficient

Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 8% savings (670 aMW)Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 8% savings (670 aMW)


Agricultural SectorAgricultural Sector

Past Plan’s Focused Exclusively on Irrigated Past Plan’s Focused Exclusively on Irrigated Agriculture Efficiency Potential Agriculture Efficiency Potential – System Efficiency Improvements (i.e., more efficient System Efficiency Improvements (i.e., more efficient

“pumps and plumbing”)“pumps and plumbing”)

– Improved Water Management (i.e., “just enough and Improved Water Management (i.e., “just enough and just in time”)just in time”)

Fifth Plan will also include “on farm” agricultural Fifth Plan will also include “on farm” agricultural processes, such as milking and milk processingprocesses, such as milking and milk processing

Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 40 aMWFourth Plan’s Estimate = 40 aMW


PRELIMINARYPRELIMINARY AssessmentAssessment of Cost- of Cost-Effective Conservation PotentialEffective Conservation Potential

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Cost-Effective Potential(aMW in 2025)

Agricultural Sector - 25 aMW

Non-DSI Industrial Sector - 350 aMW

Commercial Sector Non-Building Measures - 300 aMW

HVAC & Window Efficiency Improvements - 200 aMW

New Commercial Building Lighting - 200 aMW

Existing Commercial Buildings Lighting - 250 aMW

Residential Space Conditioning - 575 aMW

Residential Lighting - 660 aMW

Residential Water Heating - 335 aMW

Residential Appliances - 305 aMW

northwest power planning council the fifth plan’s draft conservation resource assessment summary...

Documents

energy efficiency standards

nonbuilding activities

airsource heat pumpsheat

power supplies

power planidentify

street lighting

federal government

code changes pre