note: the following is an abridged t published december 17 ...2020/12/17 · d e gs. gs. gs. gs. l...
TRANSCRIPT
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GLOBAL MACRO RESEARCH
TOP MIND
of 2020 UPDATE,AND A PEEK AT 2021
Allison Nathan [email protected]
Gabriel Lipton Galbraith [email protected]
Special Issue | December 17, 2020 | 5:35 PM EST
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Jenny Grimberg [email protected]
Note: The following is an abridged version of the original report published December 17, 2020 [32 pgs].
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“If we end up choosing policies that are
expensive, we’re going to run out of enthusiasm
before we’ve made substantial progress against
climate change… carbon pricing is our best bet
to achieve carbon reductions on the cheap.”
– Michael Greenstone, Director of the Energy
Policy Institute at the University of Chicago
(Issue 85, January 30)
(Issue 89, April 28)
“The whole point of having a strong balance sheet is to
be able to use debt aggressively when you're faced
with a full-on crisis. And this is one where I would have
no problem with policymakers taking the same actions
twice over if it means we get out of this in one piece.”
– Kenneth Rogoff, Professor, Harvard University
(Issue 90, May 28)
“
(Issue 85, January 30)
“History shows that President Putin doesn’t respond
to sanctions. Sanctions just strengthen the
relationship between China and Russia that has been
developing in common cause against what they see
as US unilateralism.”
– Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of IHS Markit (Issue 88, March 31)
"It doesn't do any good to think about
what's going to happen to the economy,
or for how long the stock market is
going to decline or to how low. These
things are unknowable. What really
matters is whether price is proportional
to fundamentals. It’s all about value.“
– Howard Marks, Co-Founder and Co-
Chairman, Oaktree Capital Management(Issue 87, March 24)
“One of the lessons we
learned from the
financial crisis is
that you can see
extraordinary action
at the peak moments
of crisis, but even
when things are still
quite bad, people can
tire of taking
action, and not want
to do anymore.”
– Jason Furman,
Professor, Harvard
School of Government
(Issue 87, March 24)
“In some ways, the rise in the incidence of non-work
represents the most fundamental change in the outcomes for
men, and Black men in particular, in this country in many
decades. And it suggests that just focusing on “earnings”
gaps… presents an increasingly poor picture of what’s
happening in the population overall.”
– Kerwin K. Charles, Dean and Professor,
Yale School of Management(Issue 91, July 16)
"In many parts of the world, the virus
still has a lot of room to run until we
reach enough infections that herd
immunity starts to slow virus spread."
– Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Professor, Harvard
T.H. Chan School of Public Health
(Issue 92, August 13)
"If you focus on
the level [of
activity], you
might say that we
assume a U-shaped
recovery. But if
you focus on growth
rates, you’d
probably call our
forecast V-shaped.
. . . But whatever
growth we get will
come from a much
lower level."
– Jan Hatzius,
GS Chief Economist
and Head of Global
Investment Research
(Issue 87, March 24)
(Issue 86, February 28)
"The sense is that this infection will probably spread
worldwide… stringent control measures… won’t stop
an epidemic, but they will slow it down and ultimately
reduce the total number of cases."
– Dr. Barry Bloom, Professor, Harvard T.H. Chan
School of Public Health
(Issue 86, February 28)
“When we initiated our COVID-19 vaccine development program in
late January 2020, we ambitiously set a target of 12 to 18 months
for the availability of a vaccine at scale. Six months into the
development effort, we're still on target for the first half of 2021.”
– Dr. Richard Hatchett, CEO,
Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations
(Issue 92, August 13)
“[Under President Biden] higher taxes will be
critical to pay for the more permanent measures
required to make our economy, cities, and people
more resilient to adverse shocks… But I don’t
believe these narrowly targeted taxes will hurt the
economy, especially when we net out the benefits
from what they’re paying for.”
– Jared Bernstein, economic adviser to
President-elect Joe Biden (Issue 93, October 1)
“Without a doubt, the most pressing [foreign policy
challenge over the next four years] will be the US-
China relationship, and more broadly, the future
orientation of global technology and data.”
– Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group(Issue 93, October 1)
(Issue 94, October 29)
“When you step back, recent [oil] developments are a
…culmination of an unsustainable supply management
strategy that is coinciding with an enormous demand
shock, and the answer has to be low prices.”
– Gary Ross, CEO of Black Gold Investors and
Founder of PIRA Energy Group
(Issue 88, March 31)
“It’s not just the rate of global
growth that matters for the Dollar's
value, it’s how global growth
compares to US growth.”
– Barry Eichengreen, Professor,
University of California, Berkeley
(Issue 94, October 29)
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https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/05/28/6160d150-5f6c-4250-96b8-9249a94c0d87.pdfhttps://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/04/01/604c0c49-5a54-4d93-8323-cbec5ee3153e.pdfhttps://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/03/24/6799d2cc-8227-414c-92e6-6e9ad730f9ae.pdf
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Disclosure Appendix
https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.htmlhttps://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.htmlhttps://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.htmlhttps://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.htmlhttps://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html
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https://www.sipc.org/https://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsphttps://www.fiadocumentation.org/fia/regulatory-disclosures_1/fia-uniform-futures-and-options-on-futures-risk-disclosures-booklet-pdf-version-2018
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https://www.fiadocumentation.org/fia/regulatory-disclosures_1/fia-uniform-futures-and-options-on-futures-risk-disclosures-booklet-pdf-version-2018https://research.gs.com/https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html