© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through History

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion

Number of years to add each billion (year)

All of Human History (1800)

130 (1930)

30 (1960)

15 (1975)

12 (1987)

12 (1999)

14 (2013)

14 (2027)

21 (2048)

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

World Population Growth, in Billions

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods

80

8783

7976 76 75

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Net population added per year Annual population growth rate

Mill

ions

Per

cent

incr

ease

per

ye

ar

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Millions

Annual Increase in World Population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods

80

8783

7976 76 75

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Net population added per year Annual population growth rate

Mill

ions

Per

cent

incr

ease

per

yea

r

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

• This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.• Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). • From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.

Billions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

World Population Clock

Natural Increase per World

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries (less China)

Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587

Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004

Minute 154 2 151 137

2005

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

• Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. • Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. • Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline.

Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Worldwide

0.6

0.9

1.82.0 2.0

1.3

0

1

2

3

1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050

Bill

ion

s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ch

ildre

n p

er

wo

ma

n

Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

• The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050.• The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline.• Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age.

Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years

49

6772

76

6565

7780 82

75

Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

More DevelopedRegions

World

2000-2005 2045-2050

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

• In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today. • Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. • Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.

Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions

300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Male Female Male Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-90-4

Age

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Age Distribution of the World’s Population

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

• Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries.• Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.• Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents. • Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.

Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population

Time

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition