7/29/2019 Noticias de Políticas Monetarias semana 1

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Roberto Mendoza Hernández A01213035

Monetary Policy and Theory

August 12th 2013 – Mensual Monetary Inform (July 2013) - BCRA

1. Síntesis• En julio, los depósitos a plazo fijo en pesos del sector privado acumularon un aumento mensual récord, quealcanzó a $10.500 millones, conformado tanto por las colocaciones de $1 millón y más como por depósitosminoristas (de menos de $1 millón). De este modo, el ritmo de crecimiento interanual de los depósitos a plazodel sector privado continuó ubicándose en niveles históricamente elevados. Al comparar el saldo promedio de julio con el que registraron un año atrás, se observa que estas colocaciones acumularon un incremento de44%.• Como consecuencia del aumento observado en los plazos fijos y el aumento del circulante , el agregadomonetario más amplio en pesos (M3) creció 2,7% en el mes de julio. El circulante en poder del público estuvoasociado a factores de carácter estacional vinculados a las vacaciones de invierno y el cobro del medio salarioanual complementario. Por su parte, los depósitos del sector privado también mostraron un muy buendesempeño. De esta forma, en los últimos 12 meses el M3 acumuló un aumento de 29,7%.• El principal factor que explicó el crecimiento mensual del M3 continuó siendo el aumento de los préstamosen pesos al sector privado, que en julio alcanzó a 3% ($11.670 millones), el mayor de los últimos seis meses.

Así, estas financiaciones alcanzaron una variación interanual del 39,3%. En sintonía con lo sucedido añosanteriores, las líneas con destino esencialmente comercial fueron las que explicaron la mayor parte delincremento del mes. En efecto, las financiaciones instrumentadas mediante documentos y los adelantosrealizaron las principales contribuciones al crecimiento del mes.• De acuer do a la última información disponible, correspondiente a junio, las financiaciones otorgadas bajo laforma de contratos de leasing incrementaron significativamente su tasa de variación mensual, evidenciando enel mes un aumento de 6,1% ($470 millones), el mayor desde septiembre de 2011.• En un contexto en que el crecimiento de los préstamos en pesos al sector privado superó al de los depósitosen la misma moneda, se observó una disminución del ratio de liquidez del segmento en pesos de las entidades(suma del efectivo en bancos, la cuenta corriente de las entidades en el Banco Central, los pases netos con talentidad y la tenencia de LEBAC y NOBAC, en términos del total de depósitos en pesos), que promedió31,5%, 1,1 p.p. por debajo de junio. La disminución se concentró en los activos de más largo plazo (tenenciade LEBAC y NOBAC), cuya participación respecto a los depósitos bajó 0,6 p.p, y en las operaciones de

 pases, con una caída de su participación del orden de los 0,3 p.p.. Esta disminución se produce en un contextogeneral en el que la liquidez bancaria sigue siendo holgada.• Las tasas de interés pagadas por las entidades financieras a los depositantes (pasivas) mostraron un leveaumento en julio. En efecto, la tasa de interés del total de nuevas operaciones a plazo en pesos promedió14,95% en julio, aproximadamente 0,2 p.p. por encima de la correspondiente a junio.• Las tasas de interés aplicadas sobre los préstamos en pesos al sector privado (activas) también mostraronleves aumentos en julio. En particular, en el caso de las tasa de los préstamos otorgados mediante documentosa sola firma y las correspondientes a los créditos con garantía real, los incrementos fueron el resultado de una base de comparación reducida, debido a que en junio se registró una mayor concentración de financiacionesotorgadas en el marco de la Línea de Crédito para la Inversión Productiva  – que se otorgan a tasas de interésmás bajas y con plazos más largos  – , como suele ocurrir durante los meses en que se produce el vencimientode las etapas de esta línea.• En julio las emisiones en el mercado local de deuda corporativa totalizaron aproximadamente $2.500

millones, 8,5% por encima del mes previo. Este desempeño se produjo en un contexto donde la cantidad decolocaciones se incrementó, pasando de 10 emisiones en junio a 22 en julio; siendo la mayor partedenominadas en moneda local.• Las emisiones de fideicomisos financieros marcaron un nuevo récord (excluyendo las destinadas a financiar obras de infraestructura), al totalizar algo más de $2.060 millones. Este monto representó un aumento cercanoa 70% respecto al mes anterior. El importante monto emitido en el mes estuvo acompañado de un incrementoen el número de operaciones, que alcanzaron a 22, frente a un promedio mensual de 17 operaciones en el primer semestre del año.

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August 13th 2013 - Circular a las instituciones bancarias sobre el Sistema de Integración con Entes Externos(SINEX) - BCV

El Banco Central de Venezuela de conformidad con lo dispuesto en el artículo 5° de la Resolución N°10-1002del 26/10/2010, informa a las instituciones bancarias sujetas a la constitución de encaje legal, que por motivosoperacionales que inciden en el funcionamiento del "Sistema de Integración con Entes Externos (SINEX)", seextiende hasta el 14/08/2013, en el horario comprendido de 8 a.m. hasta las 4 p.m., el plazo para la recepciónde la información necesaria para el cálculo del encaje legal correspondiente a la semana base comprendidaentre 05/08/2013 al 09/08/2013.

Caracas, 13 de agosto de 2013

Luís Alberto Laviosa Prato

Vicepresidente de Operaciones Nacionales (E)

August 15th 2013 - Barbados' successful maintenance of the exchange rate anchor lends credibility toeconomic policy. – Central Bank of Barbados

http://www.centralbank.org.bb/WEBCBB.nsf/vwNews/4241FED15AB4B06404257B9E0050E04A/$FILE/National%20Consultation_2013.v4.pdf 

August 14th 2013 - Monthly Financial Statement as of July 2013 – Central Bank of Belize

https://www.centralbank.org.bz/docs/default-source/fin-monthly-statements-4.3.1/monthly-financial-statement-as-of-july-2013.pdf?sfvrsn=2

August 14th 2013 - Financing in the Eurosystem (July 2013) – Banco de España

http://www.bde.es/webbde/en/estadis/infoest/indeco.html#chapa_49http://www.bde.es/webbde/es/estadis/infoest/e0801e.pdf 

August 8, 2013Bank of JapanStatement on Monetary Policy1. At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by aunanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:The Bank of Japan will conduct money market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.2. With regard to the asset purchases, the Bank will continue with the following guidelines:a) The Bank will purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that their amount outstanding will increaseat an annual pace of about 50 trillion yen, and the average remaining maturity of the Bank's JGB purchaseswill be about seven years. b) The Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) sothat their amounts outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 1 trillion yen and about 30 billion yenrespectively.c) As for CP and corporate bonds, the Bank will continue with those asset purchases until their amountsoutstanding reach 2.2 trillion yen and 3.2 trillion yen respectively by end-2013; thereafter, it will maintainthose amounts outstanding.3. Japan's economy is starting to recover moderately. Overseas economies as a whole are gradually headingtoward a pick-up, although a lackluster performance is partly seen. In this situation, exports have been pickingup. Business fixed investment has stopped weakening and shown some signs of picking up as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has continued to increase, and the pick-up in housing investmenthas become evident. Private consumption has remained resilient, assisted by the improvement in consumer 

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sentiment. Reflecting these developments in demand both at home and abroad, industrial production isincreasing moderately. Meanwhile, financial conditions are accommodative. On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has turned positive. Inflationexpectations appear to be rising on the whole.

4. With regard to the outlook, Japan's economy is expected to recover moderately on the back of the resiliencein domestic demand and the pick-up in overseas economies. The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI islikely to rise gradually.5. Regarding risks, there remains a high degree of uncertainty concerning Japan's economy, including the prospects for the European debt problem, developments in the emerging and commodity-exportingeconomies, and the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy.6. The Bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the pricestability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. It willexamine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments asappropriate.Such conduct of monetary policy will support the positive movements in economic activity and financialmarkets, contribute to a rise in inflation expectations, and lead Japan's economy to overcome the deflation thathas lasted for nearly 15 years.

Philippine monetary policy expected to remain accommodative

MANILA -- In FXPRIMUS’ ASEAN Market Review for August 16, the brokerage firm focuses on positivecatalysts for the Philippines economy. Capital outflow remains top challenge for economy, together withslowing China.

The Philippine central bank will unlikely follow the Bank of Indonesia (BI) and apply tools to curb capitaloutflow. This means they are expected to keep the policy rate at a record low 3.5% in the first half of 2014.

Recent data suggested that the Philippine economy benefited from its accommodative monetary policy whileinflation pressure eased. The CPI in July lowered to 2.5% YoY from the earlier 2.8% in June, implying thatfinancial stability risks shifted to a minimum level.

Export data released a few days ago also suggested that manufacturers benefited by the Peso weakening.

Exports expanded 4.3% YoY, the fastest pace this year.

The Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. President Sergio Ortiz-Luis expects that the export growth targetin 2013 will reach 10%, meaning that average export growth needs to hit at least 15%. The leading industrycould be its garments sector, since orders are up by 100%.

The peso extended its weakening against the Greenback since the middle of May. Officials should besatisfied with the exchange rate as long as it stays within the 42-44 levels. Hence, the current exchange levelcheers the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), while inflation concern doesn’t apply at this moment. Capital outflow remains top challenge for economy, together with slowing China

“Actual capital outflow remains the top challenge for the Philippine financial stability environment,” saidJimmy Zhu, FXPRIMUS Senior Economist. “The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) rallied more than270% since Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first round of mega stimulus in 2009, while the currency still appreciatedagainst the Greenback more than 50% from then. A large percentage of these capitals is speculative and short-term, which means the financial market will be extremely vulnerable to any external condition changes, suchas the Fed’s policy adjustment,” he said. 

“Compared to its ASEAN neighbors, the Philippines’ advantage is the expansion of foreign ownership rights,aiming to increase foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the country’s priority is to boost itsinfrastructure investment, like China did in the past decade,” said Mr. Zhu. “Raising the policy rate doesn’tsolve the problem, the recent BI’s tool is a great example, and it may slow growth in the end. The current FDIin the Philippines still lags behind its ASEAN neighbors,” he said. 

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 China is another threat to the Philippine economy, given the rising trade relationship between the two. Withrecent familiar topics, a successful reform in China will play a key role for the Philippines in a longer run. Ialso do not expect any impact in the near term, at least before 2016,” said Mr. Zhu.  

August 13, 2013Monetary Policy Committee DecisionIntroductionThe August 13, 2013 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded that the medium-termoutlook for inflation is positive and inflation is forecast to remain within the 3  – 6 percent objective range for the remainder of 2013.Economic Outlook and Assessment of Risks World output is projected to increase by 3.1 percent in 2013,unchanged from the estimate for 2012. Growth in economic activity in emerging markets is expected to slowdown, although remaining stronger than in developed economies. Overall, the subdued global outputexpansion and restrained demand have so far contributed to moderate world inflation. In addition, the lowcapacity utilization and high unemployment rates in major economies continue to constrain global inflation.Gross Domestic Product expanded by 3.6 percent in the twelve months to March 2013, down from 6 percentfor the corresponding period the previous year, reflecting an increase of 5.2 percent in non-mining GDP,together with a contraction of 6.1 percent in the mining sector. It is anticipated that non-mining GDP willremain below potential in the medium term and will not be inflationary.

Furthermore, it is expected that the influence of demand on economic activity will be modest, largelyreflecting trends in government expenditure and personal incomes.Inflation eased from 6.1 percent in May 2013 to 5.8 percent in June compared to 7.3 percent in June 2012 andwas within the Bank’s objective range of 3 – 6 percent. The decrease in inflation in June 2013 wasattributable to both the dissipation of base effects arising from the increase in administered prices in 2012 anda slowdown in the annual rate of price increase across a broad range of goods and services. Weak domesticdemand and the forecast benign external inflationary pressures contribute to the positive inflation outlook inthe medium term, with the potential for slowdown in inflation. However, this outlook could be negativelyaffected by any unanticipated large increase in administered prices and government levies, as well asinternational food and oil prices increasing beyond current forecasts.Monetary Policy StanceThe current state of the economy, in which unemployment remains high, together with belowtrend economicactivity, provides scope for monetary stimulus to spur stronger output growth.

Assumptions on both the domestic and external economic outlook, as well as the inflation forecast, suggestthat additional easing of the monetary policy stance is consistent with maintaining inflation within the Bank’s3 – 6 percent objective range in the medium term.Accordingly, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to reduce the Bank Rate by half a percent to 8 percent.Commercial banks are expected to make the necessary interest rate adjustments to reflect this policy decision.