Novel and disappearing climatesThe BC Parks system and the projected climates of the 21st Century

BC Parks Living Labs Inaugural Research ColloquiumMarch 15th, 2018

Colin Mahony, RPFDepartment of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia

PresenterPresentation NotesThis talk is about the problem of novel climates: conditions emerging due to climate change that are not present in the climate types that we are familiar with. Novel climates are conditions that we don’t have any ecological data. so novel climates ultimately are about model extrapolation.

OLD: This talk is about the problem of novel climates: conditions emerging due to climate change that are not present in the climate types that we are familiar with. The topic of novel climates touches on the question of how any given discipline such as forestry can shepherd its knowledge base through a continually changing climate. The problem of novel climates is relevant to ecology in general, but my approach to the problem has been strongly influenced by my background as a forester.

Where will future-adapted biota come from?Novel climates

Where will historically adapted biota go to?Disappearing climates

Novel and disappearing climates

1. Background info

2. Shifting climates of the BC Parks system

3. Single-park case studies

4. System-level results

5. Spatial data deliverables

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Seminal research

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(14), 5738–42.

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Novel Climates Disappearing Climates

PresenterPresentation NotesThe seminal paper that did that was Williams et al 2007. for each cell, they measured analog distances relative to local interannual variability. The main pattern they found was that emergence of novel climates in the tropics. makes sense because low interannual variability relative to climate change, and the hottest areas of the planet. (no hotter equivalent of the lowland equatorial rainforest)

Background Info

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RCP8.5

RCP4.5

RCP2.6

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)• Scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions by humans

Background Info

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RCP8.5

RCP4.5

RCP2.6

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)• Scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions by humans

Background Info

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Temperature

Climate change 1980s-2080s

(RCP4.5)

Precipitation

Win

ter

Sum

mer

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Climate envelopes of North America and BC

BC Climates (1980s)

Historical North American Climates

(1980s)

PresenterPresentation NotesStart: to visualize the emergence of novel climates, we can look at the climate envelope of british Columbia.

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Shifting climates of the BC Parks system (Winter)

BC Climates

BC Parks

2020s (RCP4.5)2050s (RCP4.5)2080s (RCP4.5)

Novel ClimatesDisappearingClimates

Historical North American Climates

(1980s)

BC Parks

PresenterPresentation NotesStart: to visualize the emergence of novel climates, we can look at the climate envelope of british Columbia.

10

Shifting climates of the BC Parks system (Summer)

BC Parks 2080s (RCP4.5)

Historical North American Climates

(1980s)

BC Parks 1980s

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Case Study – Carmanah-Walbran Provincial Park

PresenterPresentation NotesMoving towards warmer-drier in the summer, and warmer-wetter in the winterTakehome: novel climates aren’t limited to the warmest areas of the province. Precipitation creates more leading edges.

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Case Study – Carmanah-Walbran Provincial Park

2080s (RCP4.5)1980s

Historical North American Climates

(1980s)

Historical BC Climates (1980s)

Case Study – Carmanah-Walbran Provincial Park

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Novel Climates

PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

Case Study – Carmanah-Walbran Provincial Park

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Disappearing Climates

PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

15

Case Study – Ts’il-os Provincial Park

PresenterPresentation NotesMoving towards warmer-drier in the summer, and warmer-wetter in the winterTakehome: novel climates aren’t limited to the warmest areas of the province. Precipitation creates more leading edges.

16

Case Study – Ts’il-os Provincial Park

PresenterPresentation NotesMoving towards warmer-drier in the summer, and warmer-wetter in the winterTakehome: novel climates aren’t limited to the warmest areas of the province. Precipitation creates more leading edges.

Case Study – Ts’il-osProvincial Park

17

Novel Climates

PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

Case Study – Ts’il-osProvincial Park

18

Disappearing Climates

PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

Analysis of the whole BC Parks system

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Novel climates Disappearing climatesRCP4.5 RCP4.5RCP8.5 RCP8.5

PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

Gap analysis – Disappearing climates

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PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

Gap analysis – Disappearing climates

21

PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

Gap analysis – Disappearing climates

22

PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

Spatial Data Deliverables

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Raster inputsExtent: BC Parks systemResolutions: 375m, 750m, and 1.5km• Digital Elevation Model• Seasonal ClimateBC data: 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5• BEC (version 10), Ecoregions, Parks, lakes

Raster outputsExtent: BC Parks systemResolution: 750m96 layers: • 4 metrics: Novel and disappearing climates, forward/backward velocity• 4 analog pools: single park, parks system, BC, North America• 3 time periods: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s• 2 emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 & RCP8.5

PresenterPresentation NotesAll ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions.

These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a

OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climateThis is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry,small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited)Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.

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