nowcasting airport winter weather – avisa tests during airs ii
DESCRIPTION
Nowcasting Airport Winter Weather – AVISA Tests During AIRS II. Presentation by George A. Isaac Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Division Environment Canada AVISA – Airport Vicinity Icing and Snow Advisor AIRS – Alliance Icing Research Study. Co-Authors & Funding Agencies. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Nowcasting Airport Winter Weather – AVISA Tests
During AIRS II
Presentation by
George A. Isaac
Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Division
Environment Canada
AVISA – Airport Vicinity Icing and Snow AdvisorAIRS – Alliance Icing Research Study
Co-Authors & Funding Agencies
• Monika Bailey, Stewart Cober, Norman Donaldson, Ismail Gultepe, Norbert Driedger, David Hudak, Anna Glazer, Janti Reid, Peter Rodriguez, and J. Walter StrappEnvironment Canada, Toronto
• Alexei Korolev Skytech Research Inc, Richmond Hill• Frederic Fabry
McGill University, Montreal
• Funds from Transport Canada, FAA, SAR/NIF, NRC/IAR, CRC, McGill, CFCAS, NSERC
Problems Associated with Airport Winter Weather
• Ice forming on wings of aircraft requiring de-icing
• Reduced visibility
• Low ceilings
• Runway icing and snow removal
• In-flight icing during takeoff and landing
• Extreme cold temperatures
St
Joh
n's
Hal
ifax
Go
ose
Iqal
uit
Qu
ebec
Cit
y
Do
rval
Mir
abel
Ott
awa
To
ron
to
Su
db
ury
Th
un
der
Bay
Win
nip
eg
Cal
gar
y
Ed
mo
nto
n
Cra
nb
roo
k
Van
cou
ver
Wh
iteh
ors
e
Yel
low
knif
e
Airport Location
0
10
20
30
An
nu
al F
req
ue
nc
y o
f O
ccu
rre
nc
e (
%)
H azard Type
Frost
Freezing Fog
W et Snow
D ry Snow
Snow Pelle ts
B low ing Snow
Freezing R ain
Freezing D rizzle
Ice Pelle ts
Hazardous Hours at Canadian Airports
Stuart and Isaac, 1994: ICAO Journal
Alliance Icing Research Study II• A large international research program
(participants from 25 organizations from N.A. and Europe, gov’t and university sectors)
• Lead by MSC• Conducted in the Ottawa-Mirabel region 3 Nov 2003
to 13 Feb 2004• Focus on aviation meteorology research,
nowcasting, aircraft icing, cloud processes• Web site http://airs-icing.org/ (Science Plan, Data
access, publications, etc)• Endorsed by Aircraft Icing Research Alliance
(AIRA) and WWRP Aircraft In-Flight Icing Project (AIFI)
• Five (5) research aircraft involved• Three (3) different Nowcasting systems (MSC,
NASA, NCAR/NOAA)• Data currently being quality controlled and
archived• Project Workshop was conducted at Mt. Tremblant,
9-10 November• Special Session at AIAA in Reno in January/05
Participating Organizations
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Nov03 Nov08 Nov13 Nov18 Nov23 Nov28 Dec03 Dec08 Dec13 Dec18
PO
SS
Pre
cip
itat
ion
Rat
e [m
m/h
r]
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
Su
rfac
e T
emp
erat
ure
[d
eg C
]
POSS Snow
POSS Rain
Obs ZR/ZL
Convair-580
Twin Otter
C130
Citation
ER2
UAS
Temp 6-hr Avg
Precip 6-hr Avg
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Jan18 Jan23 Jan28 Feb02 Feb07 Feb12
PO
SS
Pre
cip
itat
ion
Rat
e [m
m/h
r]
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Su
rfac
e T
emp
erat
ure
[d
eg C
]
POSS Rain
POSS Snow
Obs ZR/ZL
Convair-580
UAS
Temp 6-hr Avg
Precip 6-hr Avg
IOP1
IOP2
AIRS II Precipitation & Flight Summary over Mirabel
AVISA Input Parameters
GOES SatellitePOSS, HP &
Met Station
Vertically Pointing Radar (VPR)
Radiometers HIMAP & GEM Models
MSC-AVISAAirport Vicinity Icing and Snow
Advisor
Ic ingInte ns R
Ic ingO c c u rR
C T T G
S k y C G
C T P ha s e G
S fc T S
S fc P c p T y p e S
S k y C S
S fc P c p Inte ns S
S fc W ind S
C e ilingS
4 D -T M
4 D -W ind M
4 D -C lo u d M
4 D -P re c ip M
4 D -Ic ingM
T P ro file A
P c p T ra c k A
F ro ntP o s AT o p o F e a tu re A
P c p E xte ntA
F rzLv lD R
P c p O c c u rD R
P c p T ra c k D R
P c p Inte ns D R
P c p E xte ntD R
C e ilingC
P c p Inte ns H
P c p T y p e P ro file V
F rzLv lV
Ic ingO c c u rP R
Ic ingInte ns P R
S fc P c p T y p e P
S fc P c p O c c u rP
S fc P c p Inte ns P
R ad io m eter
G O E SS ate llite
C eilo m eter M o d el
S u rface O b s
D o p p ler R ad ar
P irep 's
V P R
H o t P la teP rec ip P O S S
A U R O R A
ARE
SKIES CLEAR?
SLW IS ASSUMED FALSE FOR ALL HEIGHTS
SLW IS INCONCLUSIVE
SLW IS ASSUMED FALSE AT THAT HEIGHT
DERIVE BEST GUESS CTH
DERIVE BEST GUESS CBH
IS THERE LIQUID PRECIPITATION?
IS THE
RADIOMETER LWP > 0C AND
GEM MODEL TEMP < 0C?
SLW IS ASSUMED TRUE FOR THAT HEIGHT
YES
YES
NO
NO
NO
YES
Supercooled Liquid Water (SLW)
METHOD 1
FOR HEIGHTS BETWEEN
BEST GUESS CT & CB
Case Study: February 6, 2004 1900-2210 UTC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Nevz IWC
Nevz LWC
2D Sphere Frac
Aircraft Temp
Sounding 1949Z
HIMAP Temp Avg
TPR Temp Avg
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
HIMAP LWC Avg
VPR LWC Avg
TPR LWC Avg
Temperature [deg C]
LWC [g/m3] and Sphere Particle Fraction
Alti
tude
[km
]
LWC [g/m3] or [g/kg] for HIMAP
M+S Icing
YMX
February 6, 2004 - 19 UTC in the vicinity of YMX
HIMAP Supercooled LWP & GOES Icing
0.03 cm
0.03 cm
0.04 cm
Current Time: 2004-02-06 19:00Z
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
Observation Time (GMT)
Pre
cip
Ra
te [
mm
/hr]
HIMAP RR
GEM RR
Hot Plate 1
Hot Plate 2
POSS ZR
POSS Snow Type
WMN Snow
HIMAP RR - Future
GEM RR - Future
WMN Snow Pt Fcst
Current Time: 2004-02-06 19:00Z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
Observation Time (GMT)
Inte
gra
ted
Liq
uid
Wat
er [
cm]
HIMAP IC
GEM IC
TP3000 Radiometer
WVR1100 Radiometer
HIMAP IC - Future
GEM IC - Future
YMX
GOES ICING @ 1902
Precipitation Observations & Forecast at YMX LWP Observations & Forecast at YMX
HIMAP Total Precipitation Rate and Radar
0.5 mm/hr
0.9 mm/hr
> 0.5 mm/hr
20 km
HIMAP Total Precipitation Rate and Radar
0.5 mm/hr
0.9 mm/hr
> 0.5 mm/hr
20 km
HIMAP Supercooled LWP & GOES Icing
0.03 cm
0.03 cm
0.04 cm
YMX
GOES ICING @ 1902
Current Time: 2004-02-06 19:00Z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
Observation Time (GMT)
Inte
gra
ted
Liq
uid
Wat
er [
cm]
HIMAP IC
GEM IC
TP3000 Radiometer
WVR1100 Radiometer
HIMAP IC - Future
GEM IC - Future
Current Time: 2004-02-06 19:00Z
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
Observation Time (GMT)
Pre
cip
Ra
te [
mm
/hr]
HIMAP RR
GEM RR
Hot Plate 1
Hot Plate 2
POSS RR
WMN Snow
HIMAP RR - Future
GEM RR - Future
WMN Snow Pt Fcst
Current Time: 2004-02-06 19:00Z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
Observation Time (GMT)
Inte
gra
ted
Liq
uid
Wat
er [
cm]
HIMAP IC
GEM IC
TP3000 Radiometer
WVR1100 Radiometer
HIMAP IC - Future
GEM IC - Future
Observed Data: 2004-02-06 13:00Z to 2004-02-07 01:00Z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
Observation Time (GMT)
Inte
gra
ted
Liq
uid
Wat
er [
cm] HIMAP IC
GEM IC
TP3000 Radiometer
WVR1100 Radiometer
Current Time: 2004-02-06 19:00Z
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
Observation Time (GMT)
Pre
cip
Ra
te [
mm
/hr]
HIMAP RR
GEM RR
Hot Plate 1
Hot Plate 2
POSS RR
WMN Snow
HIMAP RR - Future
GEM RR - Future
WMN Snow Pt Fcst
Observed Data: 2004-02-06 13:00Z to 2004-02-07 01:00Z
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
Observation Time (GMT)
Pre
cip
Ra
te [
mm
/hr]
HIMAP RR
GEM RR
Hot Plate 1
Hot Plate 2
POSS RR
WMN Snow
Model/Radiometer Comparison
Liquid Water Paths Water Vapour Paths
Profiling Radiometer LWP [cm] Profiling Radiometer WVP [cm]
HIM
AP
LW
P [
cm]
HIM
AP
WV
P [
cm]
Comparison with HIMAP During AIRS II
Parameter Instrument Hit Rate FAR TSS
Liquid Water Path
Profiling
Radiometer
HIMAP 0.54 0.11 0.43
Cloud Occurrence
Ceilometer HIMAP 0.96 0.69 0.27
Precipitation
> 0 mm/hr
Hot Plate 1 HIMAP 0.78 0.17 0.61
Precipitation
> 2 mm/hr
Hot Plate 1 HIMAP 0.42 0.01 0.41
Cloud Base on November 4, 2003 12 UTC+ 24 Hours
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Observation Time (GMT)
Clo
ud
Ba
se
[k
m]
Obs FZ Precipitation
GEM NU
Ceilometer
Orange marks when the YMX observerreported ZR
November 4-5, 2003: Freezing Rain Event
Time series data contain a change in model runs at 00 Z
Surface Temperature on November 4, 2003 12 UTC+ 24 Hours
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Observation Time (GMT)
Te
mp
[C
] o
r P
rec
ip [
mm
/hr]
Obs FZ Precipitation
GEM Screen (TJ)
Campbell Met Stn
POSS Precip Rate
POSS Snow Type
POSS reports mainly rain type Wx
Conclusions
• AIRS II produced an excellent data set to develop and test airport systems to detect winter weather, with emphasis on icing and snow.
• Although weaknesses in some sensors and models were documented, a good system will use the strengths from various potential input components to produce reliable and accurate detection and forecast methods.
• Other aspects such as SLD formation, aircraft response to icing, and cloud characterization measurements also studied but not reported here.
TAMDAR Data GLFE (Great Lakes Fleet
Experiment) is a 12-month project started in Jan 2005 that is testing tropospheric AMDAR systems aboard 64 aircraft in the Great Lakes region
TAMDARs also measure RH, icing and turbulence
Graph shows TAMDAR icing and temperature data collected in the vicinity of Pearson on Aug 31 2005
GLFE-AIRDAT TAMDAR Data on August 31, 2005Between 10-15 UTC within ~100 mile radius of YYZ
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Temperature (C)
Alt
itu
de
[k
m]
Temperature
Heights with No Icing
Heights with Icing
Questions?