nps climate change response leadership: service wide ... · a) refugia: physical/ecological or...

NPS Climate Change

Response Leadership:

Service Wide, Regional, and @

Devils Postpile National Monument

Climate Change Refugia as a Tool

for Climate Adaptation

Mountain Climate

September 17, 2014

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

Devils Postpile

National Monument

Conservation and Climate Challenges =

Extraordinary Opportunities

DEPO

YOSE

SEKI

Nestled near the Sierra Divide, Near

Headwaters of the San Joaquin River

Ecotone

Of Great

Basin

starting

at

Eastern

Sierra

And

West

Slope

Sierra

Nevada

Devils Postpile : Near Headwaters &

Importance of the San Joaquin River

■ Upper Middle Fork

of the San Joaquin

River

■ One of two largest

rivers in California

■ Important source of

water for agriculture,

hydropower,

drinking water

DEVIL’S

POSTPILE


Geographic Context ■ Surrounded by Inyo NF

■ Gateway to over 2 million acres of

wilderness; 80% designated wilderness

■ John Muir Trail and Pacific Crest Trail

■ Part of a broader visitor experience

■ On Sierra Hydrological Divide

“Scientific Value and

Public Interests”

On July 6, 1911

DEVIL POSTPILE NATIONAL

MONUMENT

CALIFORNIA

Was designated to :

Preserve the natural formations known

as the Devil Postpile and Rainbow Falls

for their scientific value and public

interest


Purpose of Devils Postpile N.M. Preserves and protects the glacially exposed columns

of the Devils Postpile, the scenic Rainbow Falls, and

the wilderness landscape of the upper Middle Fork San

Joaquin River in the Sierra Nevada for scientific value,

public interest and inspiration.

❖ Upper Middle Fork of San

Joaquin river, riparian

corridor, and wetlands

❖ Component of larger

ecosystem

❖ Opportunities for Science

and Learning

GMP: FRVs/Desired Conditions

related to Climate Change


DEPO Science Day as part of GMP planning,

and de facto Science Technical Committee


Desired Conditions

Potential Management Actions /Common All Alternatives

The NPS continues to Provide and foster state-

of-the art science to better understand the

impacts of climate change and to develop

science-based adaptive management

strategies for natural and cultural resource

managers.

Develop and sustain a historical archive of

the climate, weather, hydrologic and

ecological conditions in the past, present,

and future and integrate these disciplines

to feed into modeling, adaptation strategies

and mitigations.

The NPS engages in partnerships to

implement projects and activities that

contribute to the conservation of species,

natural communities, and lands and waters

placed at risk by changing climate conditions.

Seek research opportunities with agency

and academic partners to improve

understanding of effects of climate within

monument and watershed.

FRV: Upper Middle Fork San Joaquin River (corridor):

A free flowing river, wetlands, riparian areas and other

and communities.

Potential Activity: implement projects and activities

that contribute to the conservation of species, natural

communities, and lands and waters placed at risk by

changing climate conditions.

Soda Springs Meadow

Provide and foster state-of-the art science to

better understand the impacts of climate

change and to develop science-based adaptive

management strategies

Wetland Inventory and Condition Assessment

NPS- 2008

8.0% of monument wetlands

(other areas in SIEN average 2%)

Potential Activity

Develop and sustain a historical archive of the

climate, weather, hydrologic and ecological

conditions in the past, present, and future and

integrate these disciplines to feed into

modeling, adaptation strategies and

mitigations

Mammoth Gap receives higher precip

and SWE than other S. Sierra points,

and known for only E. Sierra Red Fir.

The high amount of precipitation that comes up the SJ Valley and

hits Mammoth Mountain that runs as surface water in creeks and

springs, and groundwater that nourishes meadows and seeps.

Why is there such a high % of wetlands. Some factors may include :

*The high amount of precipitation that comes up the SJ Valley and hits

Mammoth Mountain that runs as surface water in creeks and springs, and

groundwater that nourishes meadows and seeps.

Snow percolating through porous volcanic rock contributes to high % of

wetlands and springs

*Possible cold air pooling in the valley with reduction in evaporation.

San Joaquin River Valley under 10K

corridor along ecotone and high

biodiversity

2001 Vascular Plant increased known species from 150: to 380

800 acres/less than 1000 foot elevation range

Additional Inventories included:

Invertebrates 100+ Genus,

100+Species of Birds

33 Vertebrates


I

Cool, Wet,

Shady longer

Surrounded by High

Peaks

Ice box Canyon….

Climate Change in California:

Cause for Concern

Increasing Temperatures,

Decreasing Precipitation

By 2050, temperatures are projected to increase an additional 1.8 to 5.4 °F;--

Temperature changes in next 30-40 years largely determined by past emissions.

Warming will accelerate mid-century to end of century.

August 2014, California has been classified by the US Drought Monitor as

experiencing severe, extreme, or exceptional drought, including the Sierra

Nevada to be in the highest category of exceptional drought.

Impacts on the Sierra Nevada :

Cause for Concern

Precipitation

■ Hotter, Drier= ■ Shrinking Sierra snowpack=

greater water deficit during the seasonal summer drought

■ Ecosystems and species stressed by water deficit

■


A Conservative climate model predicts a 30 –70% reduction in

seasonal snowpack while another predicts a 73 – 90% reduction by

the end of this century.

Faster spring snowmelt

Decrease in spring and summer flows

Impacts on the Sierra Nevadas :

Snowpack


Phenology – The timing of life cycle events influenced

by seasons and climate.

Sierra Nevadas : Impacts on Flora and

Fauna

Example :

The Spring

Snowmelt Recession


Sierra Nevadas :

Impacts on Flora and Fauna

■ Changing habitat variables

■ Extinction

■ Invasive species

■ Highly flexible and

adaptable


http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/forests

http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5415086.pdf

Sierra Nevadas: Forests

Climate change

interacts with:

Fire

Fire suppression

policies

Insect infestations

Pathogens

Drought

Figure source: Allen et al. 2010: A global overview of drought and heat-

induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests.


Example : Mountain

Pine Beetle

Dendroctonus

ponderosae

Photo : http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_MEDIA/stelprdb5415084.jpg

Sierra Nevadas : Forests


California is in a Three-Year Drought Water Year vs. Calendar Year

100% of California in the

Three Highest Intensities of Drought

State of Drought Emergency declared by the governor in January, US Drought extreme in

August.

Is California’s Current Drought Caused by

Climate Change??????

Whether current drought from CC,

the current snowpack situation, droughts, and extreme

weather events will become more common in the future.

And the impacts of drought are more severe with a warmer

climate.

2014: April 1st snowpack survey at

38% average in DEPO/Central Sierra

Historical 10th

percentile

Impacts to DEPO from CC 1. Impacts to Riparian corridor of the Middle Fork San

Joaquin River and associated wetland habitats.

2. Increased Air Pollution and impacts to vegetation and

wildlife.

3. Impacts to most important meadow: Soda Springs

4. Fire frequency and severity.

5. Vulnerability to invasive

species.

6. Extended visitation season,

greater numbers of visitors, more

impacts E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

Priorities

Each of the six concerns are of high importance.

Fortunately, three of the concerns are being addressed by intensifying efforts with existing programs to increase resilence of ecosystems in response to climate.

Invasive removal with 2 resource positions and volunteers

Visitor Impacts with indicators and standards for extent social trails and mitigation measures. ,

■ Fire and hazard fuel reduction with


E X P E R I E N C E Y O

U R A M E R I C A

Planned hazard fuel reductions

with pile burning implemented

March 2014

Broadcast burn plan 2015 to 2016

Unprecedented Challenge & Extraordinary Opportunity:

After addressing Resilience

integrating management strategies of Resistance by prioritizing

Refugia

A) Refugia: Physical/Ecological or Both?

Physical environments that are less affected by climate

change than other areas (e.g., due to local currents,

geographic location, etc.) and are thus a “refuge” from

climate change for organisms (June 4.4 SAR- report)

Ecological definition are areas with “favorable

environmental features, in which … populations can

survive outside their main distribution…protected

from unfavorable regional environmental conditions”.

B) US Climate Science Program recognizes: The value

of National Parks' as minimally disturbed refugia for

natural processes and biodiversity. Parks are

becoming more important as surrounding landscapes

become increasingly altered by human activities.

Priorities Needing Action:

Innovation

Understanding Ecological resources

present & future Refugia:

MF San Joaquin River &

Riparian corridor

Biodiversity

Soda Springs Meadow

Actions:

Identify Refugia & vulnerabilities

Develop Adaptation Strategies

■


The Committee was chaired by Rita Colwell, Chair of Canon US Life Sciences, Inc.

and an oceanographer by training. The committee also included expertise in

atmospheric sciences, wildlife biology, fisheries, integrative biology, ecology,

indigenous cultures, natural history, chemistry, and human ecology.

best available science, accurate fidelity

to the law long-term public interest

Revisiting Leopold

Revisiting Leopold

Leopold Revisited Report: From Science and

NPS Climate Change Response

Strategy ■ Director Jon Jarvis

stated in the CCRS:

Global climate change

is fundamentally the

greatest threat to the

integrity of our

national parks that we

have ever faced.


Science Objective 3.3: Develop criteria with other federal, state, and local partners and programs to measure and evaluate core concepts that may be used to direct adaptation strategies.

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program recommends specific ap-proaches for adaptation,

increasing ecosystem resilience and protecting refugia .

The NPS needs to verify the scientific foundation of these concepts and identify criteria to evaluate their performance so that they may be applied appropriately in restoration and protection of park resources.

With no Funding?

How to Develop DEPO Response? ■


Hydrology

Air Quality

Cold Air Pooling

Refugia

Partnerships: Observe, Engage,

Invite, Appreciate

Partnerships make all

this research and

monitoring possible

How did DEPO develop

Observations to share

Questions to ask

Participation at events

Invite to monument

Offer an opportunity:

Large enough to be meaningful,

small enough to be manageable

Opportunity for Science and

Learning and

How? ■ Developed

Partnerships

research and

monitoring possible

■ PSW, Scripps,

USGS,

■ UC Merced, St.

Mary’s College,

■ DRI, NWS, CADWR

Air Quality Monitoring – 2007- 2013

Results (preliminary):

■ Pollution comes from more

populated regions of CA

■ PM 2.5 levels were unhealthy

at times due to smoke from

nearby wildland fires

■ During some smoke events

and weather conditions ozone

levels decreased

■ Differences in ozone levels

between vegetated and non-

vegetated site

PM 2.5

PM 2.5 levels were unhealthy at times due to smoke from

nearby wildland fires

Used real-time data to provide air quality advisories for

the public.

Question if dangerous for human health, what impacts to

vegetation and wildlife. Research focus now.. On

vegetation and Jeffrey Pines.

Cold Air Pooling (CAP) Distribution to

Inform Refugia

■ Modeling (Lundquist et al. 2008) indicated CAP in DEPO

■ Study with partners USGS and Scripps Institute of Oceanography began in 2008 to verify CAP and determine characteristics

■ Timing (diurnal, season, weather pattern etc.)

■ Depth

■ Frequency

■ Magnitude

■ Over 100 temperature sensors in trees across an elevational gradient

CAP as Component in Climate Change

Refugia ?

• Unknown effect – may be more buffered or more vulnerable

• Components of refugia – Moisture – Cooler – Riparian and

wetland habitat – Shaded – Spatial Diversity

• Refugia Key for adaptation strategies

with some if not all • Physical Factors .

Regardless of CAP,

RSS Goal is to

Soda Springs

Meadow as a

focal area for

management as a

meadow refugium

DEPO RSS Objective for Meadows & Climate Change

Activities Target: Met: Actions Needed: Priority:

High quality meadow habitat

Direct management: Survey lodgepole distribution and develop strategy to manage conifer recruitment in wet meadow habitat

No loss of meadow habitat to lodgepole encroachment. Surveyed, conditions not met. Removal strategy with NEPA? Medium

Soda Springs Meadow as a focal area for management as a meadow refugium

Administrative & Direct management: Develop management strategies for Soda Springs Meadow; develop and compare different management, and recommend strategies for east and west sides of Soda Springs Meadow. Implement by 2017.

Seek funding, whether received or not, Prioritize for DEPO Ecologist. Complete analysis by 2016. Implement by 2017. Actions need to be initiated. High.

Through Research and Collaboration: Investigate the potential of applying NPS CCRS Goal 3.3 to identify potential refugia and to manage for their protection.

Administrative management: *Participate in UC Berkeley workshop and contribute to publication on Management Implications for Refugia Management. *Apply for funding proposals both through NPS SCC and collaborate with partners in external sources as DEPO Case Study for 12 Step plan.

Participate in workshop and publication. Develop and submit funding proposals. In process. High.

DEPO RSS Opportunities for Science and Learning

Research activities in the monument further monument management goals and scientific understanding

With university and agency partners, increase understanding of CAP phenomena in the UMF San Joaquin and ecological implications, including potential of management of the monument and adjacent lands as a climate change refugium

Collaboration for watershed level study of CAP

Integrate existing data hydrological, meteorological, and ecological data about the monument

Partial, ongoing

High

Collaboration - With university and agency partners, and through data collection and modeling, better understand of air quality and impacts of pollutants in the UMF San Joaquin and ecological implications, including potential of management of the monument and adjacent lands as a climate change refugium

Distribution of publication of 2007-2008 publication , and followup publication with 2013-14 results Existing data integrated Partial, ongoing High

Climate Change Refugia Workshop May 28-30, 2014 UC Berkeley

❖ Interface between natural resource

managers and university and federal

scientists to clarify whether and how

refugia can be used as a tool for

management and conservation

❖ Produce a review paper that highlights

the use of climate refugia as a tool for

management and conservation

Physical basis for geographic locations likely to experience reduced rates of warming

Characteristics of Physical Locations

Physical Explanation and examples (with potential caveats)

Caveats

Near/in a large body of

water

Coastal areas will warm at a slower rate

than inland areas due to the high heat

capacity of water; Deep lakes will warm at a slower rate than shallower lakes

Sea level rise may inundate some

habitat

Near a water source (riparian areas,

wetlands, where groundwater rises

near the surface)

Latent heat flux ( evaporation) results in cooler

temperatures than sensible heat flux (which directly heats

the surface; Many organisms can cool themselves (or

survive warmer temperatures with access to water).

Some water sources, such as glaciers, may

suddenly run out; Predictions of future

precipitation changes are uncertain, so overall

water availability in the future may change

Shaded (by overlying or equator-ward

vegetation or surrounding

topography)

As temperatures warm, both snowmelt and phenology are

expected to shift earlier in the season, a time when the sun

is lower in the sky, and the difference between shaded and

sunny sides is greater (Lundquist and Flint 2006).

Warming forest cover emits more longwave

radiation, and so some forested areas may actually

experience greater rates of winter warming,

accelerating snowmelt rates (Cristea et al.

2013). Areas in the shade without forest cover

overhead will not experience this effect (Lawler

and Link 2011), suggesting forest strips or gaps

provide better refugia than uniform cover.

Physical basis for geographic locations likely to experience reduced rates of warming

Characteristics of Physical Locations

Physical Explanation and examples (with potential caveats)

Caveats

Local areas within topographically complex terrain where changes in atmospheric circulation result in local changes that offset climate change.

Cold air pools exposed to increased frequency of high pressure systems (Pepin et al. 2011); Downwind slopes exposed to decreasing frequency and/or speeds of downslope winds (Lundquist and Cayan 2007)

Global climate models do not currently demonstrate high certainty in how such circulation patterns will change, making predictions difficult

Areas where snow tends to pile up (either locally or within the upslope water-contributing area)

Deep snow drifts provide insulation to the snow below and provide water later in the season. (So heterogenous snowcover is preferable to uniform snowcover). These drifts can occur in downwind topographic depressions, in granite fissures, or at the base on an avalanche shoot or a topographic slope too steep to accumulate snow

If all snow changes to rain, this won’t help anymore.

Review of Team

Of Management

Implications

Working Group

And 12 Step Table

Climate Change Refugia as a Tool for Climate Adaptation:Review and Assessment Table of Steps for Managing for Climate Refugia

Draft preparing for submission in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment:

Step 4 Assess vulnerability to climate change and other stressors

Vulnerable to: changes in local water balance due to increased evapotranspiration and/or decreased precipitation; changes in duration and amount of snow cover; earlier melt/runoff; reduced water table in groundwater; loss of vegetation canopy due to fire and/or drought; invasive species; and insect infestations.

Step 5 Determine refugia likelihood and key traits

Likelihood of refugia: high locally & watershed scale Potential Refugia Traits: Cool & wet environment along riparian corridor CAP dynamics currently strong North/South riparian corridor straddled between high mountains Spatial heterogeneity Convergence of bioregions Groundwater reservoir in volcanic rocks

Step 6 Map refugia

Consider scale (both spatial and temporal) Map connectivity of refugia if possible or desired

Test predictive ability where possible based on historical & current field data ep 6

MAP of CAP for DEPO/Upper Middle Fork of San Joaquin watershed (Lundquist et al. 2008) Map connectivity of CAP and meadows

Validation and analysis of CAP at fine scale spatial/temporal topoclimatic and microclimatic models using distributed sensor networks using 5+ years data (NPS, USGS, Scripps Institute of Oceanography)

Step 7 Prioritize refugia based on desired co-benefits or restrictions

CAP sites that coincide with meadows, species of concern, threatened aquatic habitat, habitat heterogeneity, and migratory corridors across the Upper Middle Fork San Joaquin watershed

Step 8 Identify land owners and relevant policies for managing refugia

Common to all Alternatives Capitalize on common management goals to coordinate and leverage efforts and minimize redundancy. Recognize conflicting agency missions and prioritize resolution of conflicts that endanger common goals

Step 9 Identify suite of potential strategies/ tools to meet goals, considering: refugia, connectivity, management type, time frame

Remove invasive species Maintain/restore hydrologic function and regime including riverbank, meadow, & wetland restoration. Maintain hydrologic connectivity (surface and groundwater) by managing internal/external threats. Maintain/restore connectivity of habitats. Manage fuel hazard/fire and reduce risk of canopy loss by thinning, firebreaks, pile burning. Manage visitor impacts in sensitive areas. Determine ecological “canaries” that could indicate a change.

Step 10 Identify and prioritize projects within/across jurisdictions to implement management actions

Maintain/restore hydrologic function and regime including riverbank, meadow, & wetland restoration. Maintain hydrologic connectivity (surface and groundwater) by managing internal/external threats. Maintain/restore connectivity of habitats. Manage fuel hazard/fire and reduce risk of canopy loss by thinning, firebreaks, pile burning. Manage visitor impacts in sensitive areas. Determine ecological “canaries” that could indicate a change.

Remove invasive species

Feedback loop and adaptive management

Step 11 Monitor predicted refugia and non-refugia locations to enable adaptive learning

Monitor traits used to identify potential refugia; thermal and hydrologic regimes (steps 3 & 4) Monitor risk of disturbance Monitor success of prioritized projects from step 8, including species’ responses and trends

Step 12 Shift locations and strategies as needed as we learn more

Repeat step 5 based on shifting values and targets Consider additional tools identified in step 7 Re-assess prioritizations (Step 8)

NPS: Refugia are Integral to Public and

Servicewide Hope in Challenging Times

Science Education:

With Understanding,

Comes Appreciation

With Appreciation, Comes Stewardship

PWR Climate Change:

Empowered to Advocate

Champions & Toolkit Groups

Take climate-based research going on in the monument

(and the Sierra) and help students tie it to climate

change using hands on techniques and curriculum-

based lesson plans.

Engaging Students in Climate-

based Education


Project Elements

Thank You to our Partners !

PSW: Connie Millar, Andrzej

Bytnerowicz , Bob Westfall,

Diane Delaney,

USGS: Mike Dettinger,

Scripps Institute of

Oceanography/UCSD: Dan

Cayan, Douglas Alden,

Univ Wash. Jessica Lundquist

Univ Mass/UC Berkeley: Toni

Lyn Morelli.

■

nps climate change response leadership: service wide ... · a) refugia: physical/ecological or...

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