NPS/CIRA POLICY RELEVANT SCIENCE IN SUPPORT OF NPS-ARD AIR QUALITY ISSUES AND ACTIVITIES

NPS-CIRA

Cooperative agreements Cooperative Institute for Research in the

Atmosphere (CIRA) – PI: Jenny Hand Atmospheric Chemistry – PI: Jeff Collett,

Sonia Kreidenweis Collaborate with CIRA and Atmospheric science

& chemistry professors / graduate students / research associates

Collaboration with other CSU departments Soil and crop sciences Statistic Physiology Physics

NPS-CIRA Purpose

ARD Purpose: “The ARD , in partnership with parks and others, works to preserve, protect, enhance, and understand air quality and other resources sensitive to air quality in the National Park System”

NPS-CIRA Purpose: Provide policy relevant science and technical assistance to guide and support NPS air quality management and help form meaningful regulatory actions and decisions Define policy relevant air quality questions and develop

strategies and information to address them Rigorous, credible and defensible science/assessments

Trusted experts Address NPS air quality issues that have national

implications Form, foster and leverage collaborations with federal,

state, and public organization / institutions

Some Current and Past Collaborations/ Interactions with other ARD Personal

Nitrogen deposition issues ROMANS was an ARD initiative that involved extensive

interactions among most personnel Co-chair and develop conference sessions and participate in

workshops Worked with Ellen Porter in developing the GrandTrends scope

of work Provided modeled N deposition, O3, and visibility patterns

and trends in Four Corners and Death Valley Worked with John Ray to develop continuous N instruments Reviewed proposals

Kristi Gebhart helped to develop Air Score Card Developed climate change effects on air quality in the parks

SOW Policy, Planning Permit Review

Assisted in Lenticular book marks for haze; Sequoia Kings Canyon air quality visitor center kiosk; website support

Helped to review permits: e.g. Desert Rock Facility; oil and gas EIS Supported development of ROMO N Deposition MOU; present

material to RMNP Initiative Agriculture Subcommittee

Collaborations outside of ARD

 NRPC Divisions Support the night sky program

Funded the development of a night sky radiative transfer model

Purchased and will deploy night sky radiance monitors

Participate in climate change education program

Developing web based data aggregation, visualization and dissemination tools which will be integrated into I & M NPS Natural Resource Information Portal.

Working with other organizations including EPA, FS, F&W and university groups e.g. CSU, UCD, DRI on IMPROVE; FED; special studies; and more

Air Quality Management

Define air quality goals National Ambient Air Quality Standards

(NAAQS) Develop new standards: Critical loads,

Air toxics Monitoring (Status and Trends)

Determine the actual conditions and loads

Determine deviation from goals Assess success of mitigation strategies

Assessment and Planning Identify current sources and

contributions to pollutants Assess impacts of future emission

forcing functions (climate change) Regulatory Actions

Implement control strategies

Ass

essm

ents

NPS-CIRA’s Role in Air Quality Management

What’s coming into the ecosystem? N Deposition and haze results from multiple

compounds

Where is it coming from? Short-Term: Develop meaningful regulatory actions Long-Term

Track changes in source contributions to ensure regulatory actions have desired effects

Identify potential compensating changes in unregulated sources, e.g. natural sources

Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan Glidepath

Rocky Mountain National Park

Compensating Trends in N Deposition Compounds

Changing Source Contributions

Regional Haze

NPS-CIRA started in early 1980’s

Primary activity: Haze in NP Basic research into

physical/chemical/optical properties of haze

Instrument development Human perception

studies Determine status and

trends of aerosol and haze

Haze source apportionment

20 years of research/ assessment fed into the development of the 1999 Regional Haze Rule

Air Quality Issues and Activities Beyond Visibility

Nitrogen Deposition Excess N dep. in a number of

ecosystems Secondary SOx/NOx NAAQS to address

N dep. Possible reactive N standard

Monitor, model ecosystem effects development

Ozone Rural NP will likely violate proposed O3

NAAQS Wildfire/Biomass burning

Contribution of biomass burning to haze, ambient N, ozone, air toxics

Climate Change Affects of climate change on

emissions, (e.g. biogenic VOC, fire) and air quality in our NP

One Atmosphere

All air quality issues are inter-related linked by common emissions, atmospheric dispersion and/or chemical processing.

Historically we have focused on each air quality issue separately. We now have a level of knowledge and understanding that we can look at more integrated air quality issues.

Monitoring: Status, Trends and Discovery

IMPROVE aerosol and optical monitoring Support special haze and N deposition studies Studies for monitoring development and

evaluation – e.g. reactive nitrogen NHx monitoring network Coarse mass monitoring network Radiocarbon monitoring network

Special Studies RoMANS Grand Trends BRAVO ……………

IMPROVE Monitoring ProgramThe Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments

A cooperative measurement effort of particulate matter and haze in class I areas

Governed by representatives from Federal e.g. EPA and Land Managers and regional-state organizations

Objectives: Establish current visibility and aerosol conditions in

federal class I areas (FCIA) Identify chemical species and emission sources

responsible for existing man-made visibility impairment in FCIA

Document long-term trends for assessing progress towards the national visibility goal to FCIA

With the enactment of the Regional Haze Rule, to provided regional haze monitoring representing all visibility-protected FCIA

Conduct visibility/aerosol assessments: Intensive monitoring studies

• Speciated PM2.5 and PM10 mass monitoring network• Began operating in spring of 1988 with 20 monitoring sites• Today has ~160 sites - most with ten or more years of data.

The Regional Haze Rule:

• Progress is tracked using the 20% worst haze days

Husar

Return visibility in national parks and wilderness areas to “natural visibility” conditions by 2064

Leveraging the IMPROVE network:NHx Monitoring using modified IMPROVE samplers

Using IMPROVE infrastructure: Site operators, RTI performing IC analysisCSU (Collett et al.,) and Derek are coordinating monitoring, QA/QC, data reduction, filter prep

NH3 + NH4

Collocated Samplers

Radiocarbon (14C) Distinguishing

Between Contemporary and

Fossil Carbon

Winter

Summer

Fraction Contemporary C 80-100% - rural sites 70-80% - near urban sites 50% - urban sites 60-75% in industrial

MidwestSimilar fraction contemporary carbon in winter and summer

Special Study Field Measurements

Detailed measurements not suitable to routine field programs

Develop more complete concentration/deposition budgets

~45% of N deposition at ROMO is not routinely measured

Source Apportionment:Where did the air pollution come from?

Source regions Source Types

Develop meaningful regulatory actions Track changes in source contributions to

ensure regulatory actions have desired effects

Apportionment Strategy

If chemical transport models were “perfect” then all apportionment problems would best be addressed through the exercise of these models.

BUT THEY ARE NOT! –especially when addressing species other than ozone and sulfate.

Apportionment Strategy (Weight of Evidence)

Multiple approaches building from simple to complex. Reconciliation of differences Concentration gradients. Which way is the wind coming from? Simple back trajectories. Frequency with which the air mass passes over

source areas before it arrives at the receptor -residence time analysis.

Trajectory receptor models. Receptor models. Chemical transport models. Hybrid Models.

Qua

litat

ive

Qua

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Jeameen Baek et al., - Georgia Institute of Technology

Hybrid Source Apportionment Model

Meteorology

Air Quality

Source-compositions (F)

Source-oriented Model (3D Air-quality Model)(CMAQ, CAMx)

Receptor (monitor)

Receptor Model

(CMB, PMF)

Source Impacts

Chemistry

Receptor model C=f(F,S)

CIRA/ NPS Outreach and Education

Introduction to Visibility Textbook- A textbook loaded with color pictures and graphics, accompanied by a CD-ROM with animated illustrations ,designed to communicate basic principles of light and particle interactions and describe their impact on visual resources.

• Touch Screen Kiosks -• Calendar• Web site• Brochures • Video tape training and briefs

Site Operator Training CD_ROM –Designed as a training aid for IMPROVE site operators and intended to be used at monitoring sites in the field.

Interactive Touch Screen Kiosk displays for visitors centers– Interactive technology is used to in visitor centers to make park visitors aware that human activities impact environmental systems in national parks. Great Smoky Mountains NP and Sequoia Kings Canyon NP are two successful park programs

http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/IMPROVE

Data and Information Distribution Visualization and Analysis Websites

http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/VIEWS

Impact of Climate Change on AQRVs

A Changing climate will impact Natural and anthropogenic emissions of

pollutants and precursors Atmospheric chemical and physical processes

forming/removing pollutants from the atmosphere

Land use/coverage changes Air quality goals?

These affects will have negative and positive effects on AQRVs Haze, PM, Ozone, N deposition, hazardous,

pollutants…

Climate Change Impact on Emissions Affecting AQRVs

Climate change forcing of emissions Wildfires – VOC, PM, N compounds, black

carbon… VOCs from vegetation Nitrogen compounds (NOx, NH3, ..) from

soils and vegetation Dust Oceanic emissions ? Human response and emissions changes

due to climate change

How will the changing climate affect Air Quality in National Parks?

What impact will climate change have on natural haze levels? How do we account for this in the RHR?

How will it affect the nitrogen critical loads? How do you define critical load in a changing

ecosystem? due to climate forcing? Ozone and exceptional events? Ammonia emissions from soils

increase with increasing temperature and decreasing soil moisture

How much of the increasing wet NH4 deposition throughout the Rocky Mountains is due to changing climate?

Modeling Impact of climate change on AQRVs

Using future climate and emission scenarios, perform global and regional modeling exercises to develop a comprehensive assessment of climate change on park air quality. Understand potential impact of climate change on

park AQRVs The nations response to reducing GHG emissions

could have significant positive or negative (no response) impact on air quality.

Place current air quality goals, data and source attributions in a broader (future) context

Use results to educate people on A.Q. impacts of climate change

Spracklen et al., 2009 - Impact of climate change from 2000 – 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosols in the western U.S.

Zhang et al., 2008 – Impacts of regional climate change on biogenic emissions and air quality

Heald et al., 2008 – Change in global SOA in response to future climate, emissions and land use change

NPS-CIRA History

Started in 198? (brief respite in 198?) Primary activity: Haze in National Parks

Basic research into physical/chemical/optical properties of aerosol and haze

Instrument development Human perception studies to quantify human

response to haze Determine status and trends of aerosol and

haze Haze source apportionment

20 years of research/assessment fed into the development of the 1999 Regional Haze Rule

ARD Air Quality Management

Issues Regional Haze Nitrogen Deposition Ozone Particulate matter Air Toxics

Emission Forcing Functions Moving from point to distributed ill-defined

sources Growing populations Moving from fossil to alternative energy

sources Forest/Smoke management Climate Change Global Industrialization (transboundary

transport)

Meeting goal is to provide broad overview of the activities and unique capabilities of the NPS Fort Collins group and CSU (CIRA, Atm Chem)

A) our mission B) AQ management wheel then go to issues…… Air quality issues (history of visibility and now moving on to other issues including N

dep, smoke, o3 Monitoring (IMPROVE, imp NH3 ;N-dep) what do we do with monitoring data – status

and trends; source assessments Source apportionment – multi-approaches; building from simple to complex Illustrate the process

Gradients pointing to sources Winds Trajectories (single – ensemble) CTM –show box Hybrid – show schematic

Education and outreach Research initiatives

Reactive nitrogen monitoring network Reactive N source apportionment Assess contribution of biomass burning to haze, ozone and N deposition Assess impact of a changing climate on NPS air quality and AQRV Infrastructure development

On-line decision support system for data visualization, analysis and distribution Turn-key chemical transport modeling system for rapid assessments Routine assessment of biomass burning and other sources to of carbon particulates to haze

Whats coming into the ecosystem and where it is coming from