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FORTUM Power and heat company in the Nordic area, Russia, Poland and the Baltics Investor / Analyst material February 2014

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Page 1: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

FORTUM Power and heat company in the Nordic area, Russia, Poland and the Baltics

Investor / Analyst material

February 2014

Page 2: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

2

Disclaimer

This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for,

or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares.

Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing

advice should consult an independent financial adviser.

Page 3: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Content

3

Fortum today, pages 4 -17

European and Nordic power markets, pages 19 - 33

Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 34 - 38

Russia, pages 40 - 46

Data on capacity payments, pages 42 - 44

Fortum’s investment programme, page 46

Financials and outlook, pages 48 – 54

Hedges, pages 54 - 55

Page 4: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

More than 130,000 shareholders

• Power and heat company in the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics

• Listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange since 1998

• Among the most traded shares on the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki stock exchange

• Market cap ~14 billion euros

4

31.1.2014

Foreign investors 26.3% Finnish State 50.8%

Other Finnish investors 9.4%

Households 10.8%

Financial and insurance institutions 2.7%

Page 5: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Capital returns / Dividend for 2013 EUR 1.10* ~ EUR 1.0 billion

• Fortum’s dividend policy is based on the following preconditions:

– The dividend policy ensures that shareholders receive a fair remuneration for their

entrusted capital, supported by the company’s long-term strategy that aims at increasing

earnings per share and thereby the dividend.

– When proposing the dividend, the Board of Directors looks at a range of factors,

including the macro environment, balance sheet strength as well as future investment

plans.

5

5 year dividend per share (EUR) history

• Fortum Corporation's target is to pay a stable, sustainable

and over time increasing dividend of 50-80% of earnings

per share excluding one-off items

Fortum has since 1998 annually paid dividends

in total ~10,493 MEUR

* Proposed dividend, AGM to be held 8 April 2014

1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00

1,10*

200968%

201068%

201150%

201263%

201380%

Page 6: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Fortum Executive Management as of 1st March 2014

6 Country responsibles: Timo Karttinen/Finland, Norway; Per Langer/Sweden;

Alexander Chuvaev/Russia; Markus Rauramo/Poland, Baltics, India

Business Divisions

President and CEO

Tapio Kuula

Heat, Electricity

Sales and Solutions

Executive Vice

President

Markus Rauramo

Human Resources and IT

Senior Vice President

Mikael Frisk

Finance

CFO

Timo Karttinen

Strategy and M&A

Senior Vice President

Kari Kautinen

Communications

Senior Vice President

Helena Aatinen

Corporate Relations

Senior Vice President

Esa Hyvärinen

Legal

General Counsel

Kaarina Ståhlberg

Corporate Functions

COO

Matti Ruotsala

Distribution

Executive Vice

President

Timo Karttinen

Russia

Executive Vice

President

Alexander Chuvaev

Nuclear and Thermal

Power

Executive Vice

President

Tiina Tuomela

Hydro Power and

Technology

Executive Vice

President

Per Langer

Page 7: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Fortum’s Mission and Strategy

7

Strategy

Fortum’s purpose is to create energy that improves life for present and future

generations. We provide sustainable solutions for society and deliver excellent

value to our shareholders.

Mission

Build on the strong

Nordic core

Create solid earnings

growth in Russia

Build a platform for

future growth

Strong competence in CO2-free hydro and nuclear, efficient CHP production and

energy markets

Page 8: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Our geographical presence today

8

TGC-1 (~25%)

Power generation ~7 TWh

Heat sales ~8 TWh

OAO Fortum

Power generation 20.0 TWh

Heat sales 24.2 TWh

Russia

Poland Power generation 0.6 TWh

Heat sales 4.0 TWh

Baltic countries Power generation 0.5 TWh

Heat sales 1.1 TWh

Nordic countries

Power generation 46.5 TWh

Heat sales 13.9 TWh

Distribution customers 1.6 million

Electricity customers 1.2 million

Nr 3 Power

generation

Electricity

sales

Nr 2

Nr 1 Heat

Distribution

Nr 1

Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1 bn

Operating profit EUR 1.7 bn

Balance sheet EUR 24 bn

Personnel 9,900

Great Britain Power generation 1.0 TWh

Heat sales 1.8 TWh

Page 9: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Divisions of Fortum

9

Power Division

Fortum’s power generation,

physical operation and

trading as well as expert

services for power

producers.

Heat Division

Combined heat and power

generation, district heating

and cooling activities and

b- to-b heating solutions.

Electricity Solutions and

Distribution Division

Fortum's electricity sales and

distribution activities. Two

business areas: Distribution

and Electricity Sales.

Russia Division

Power and heat generation

and sales in Russia. It

includes OAO Fortum and

Fortum’s slightly over 25%

holding in TGC-1.

Business

description

Comparable

operating

profit

Net assets

Volume

(TWh)

Drivers

EUR 858 million

Distr.: EUR 3,770 million

El. sales: EUR 39 million

EUR 3,846 million

EUR 273 million Distr.: EUR 331 million

El. sales: EUR 48 million

EUR 156 million

Distr.net. 26.1, reg.net. 16.3

El.sales: 12.1 Sales Trading 1.5

Heat sales 19.0

Power sales: 4.8 Nordic generation 43.7

EUR 6,329 million EUR 4,283 million

Fuel mix, heat and

power price

Nordic power price,

generation volumes New capacity, and price for

that, power and heat price

Power sales.: 25.6

Heat sales.: 24.1

Distr.: Regulated

El. sales: Sales margin

Page 10: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

10

Fortum mid-sized European power generation player; major producer in global heat

* incl. MOEK, ** incl. Bashkirenergo, *** incl. TGC-5, TGC-6, TGC-7, TGC-9, **** incl. TGC-12, TGC-13; ***** figure 2011

Source: Company information, Fortum analyses, 2012 figures pro forma, heat production of Beijing DH not available.

Largest global producers, 2012 TWh

Largest producers in Europe and Russia, 2012 TWh

Power generation Heat production

Electricity customers in EU, 2012 Millions

Customers

DEI

EuroSibEnergo Iberdrola

Fortum

EnBW

Vattenfall

CEZ

RWE

***) IES

DTEK PGE

Rosenergoatom

NNEGC Energoat.

Enel E.ON EDF

GDF SUEZ

Statkraft

Gazprom *)

RusHydro Inter RAO UES **)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

KDHC, Korea

Quadra

Tatenergo

Minskenergo

DTEK, Ukraine

EuroSibEnergo

TGC-2

Fortum

Dong Energy

TGC-14

Lukoil

Sibgenco ****)

***) IES

Vattenfall

PGNiG

Inter RAO UES **)

ELCEN. *****)

RusHydro

Dalkia

Gazprom *)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

GDF SUEZ

DEI

CEZ

Enel

Centrica

EDP

Iberdrola

SSE

EnBW

Fortum

EDF

E.ON

RWE

Gas Natural Fenosa

PGE Tauron

Hafslund

Dong Energy

Vattenfall

0 20 40 10 30

Page 11: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Biggest nuclear and hydro generators in Europe and Russia

11

TWh E

DF

Rosenerg

oato

m

E.O

N

NN

EG

C E

nerg

oato

m

Enel

RusH

ydro

Vattenfa

ll

GD

F S

UE

Z

Irkuts

kenerg

o

Sta

tkra

ft

RW

E

Iberd

rola

Fo

rtu

m

EnB

W

CE

Z

Verb

und

Kra

snoyars

kaya

HP

P

Axpo

Hid

roele

ctr

ica

ED

P

Gazpro

m

Alp

iq

Ukrh

ydro

energ

o

EP

S, S

erb

ia

Gas N

atu

ral F

enosa

E-C

O E

nerg

i

Nors

k H

ydro

DE

I

Agder

Energ

i

Edis

on

BK

K

Inte

r R

AO

UE

S

SS

E

PG

E

IES

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Total generation

Other

Nuclear

Hydro

Figures 2010 pro forma

Page 12: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Fortum's carbon exposure among the lowest in Europe

12

Note: Only European generation except “Fortum total“ which includes Russia.

Source:

PWC & Enerpresse, November 2013

Climate Change and Electricity, Fortum

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

DE

I

Dra

x

RW

E

SS

E

ED

P

E.O

N

Vatt

en

fall

Enel

Edip

ow

er

Un

ion

Feno

sa

CE

Z

EnB

W

GD

F S

UE

Z

Do

ng

En

erg

y

Iberd

rola

Fort

um

tota

l

ED

F

Verb

und

Fort

um

EU

PV

O

Sta

tkra

ft

42

g CO2/kWh electricity, 2012

2012

68% of Fortum's total power generation CO2-free

93% of Fortum’s power generation in the EU CO2-free

Close to 100% of the ongoing investment programme

in the EU CO2-free

Average 350 g/kWh

171

Page 13: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Fortum’s strategic route

13

Divestment of

non-strategic

heat business

Länsivoima

→100% E.ON Finland

Separation of

oil businesses

Elnova

50%→100%

District heat

in Poland 2003 →

Østfold

Shares in

Hafslund

Shares in

Lenenergo

Starting

TGC-1

Divestment of

Lenenergo

shares

TGC-10

Divestment of

Fingrid shares

Divestment of

heat operations

outside of

Stockholm

2008 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 1996 1998 2009 2010 2011

Länsivoima

45% → 65%

2012

Stockholm

Energi

Gullspång

Birka Energi 50% Fortum

50% Stockholm

Gullspång

Skandinaviska

Elverk

Birka Energi

50% → 100%

Stora

Kraft

Lenenergo

shares 1998→

IVO

1997

Neste

Divestment

of small

scale hydro

Page 14: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

14

Fortum in the Nordic electricity value chain

Competitive businesses

Regulated businesses

Power generation

Nordic wholesale market

Power exchange and

bilateral agreements

Large customers

Retail customers

Private customers, small businesses

Independent transmission system

operator

Independent distribution companies

Distribution Transmission and

system services

Page 15: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Fortum's total power and heat production by source

15

Natural gas 29%

Nuclear power

35%

Coal 7%

Biomass 2%

Total generation 68.7 TWh

(Generation capacity 15,128 MW)

Hydro power 26%

Fortum's power generation

in 2013

Other 1%

Total production 42.8 TWh

(Production capacity 21,659 MW)

Fortum's heat production

in 2013

Oil 1%

Waste 5%

Heat pumps, electricity 7%

Peat 1%

Biomass

12%

Natural gas

61%

Coal 13%

Page 16: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Nuclear power

48%

Coal 7%

Other 2%

Hydro power 37%

Natural gas 3%

European generation 48.7 TWh

(Generation capacity 10,873 MW)

Fortum's European

power generation in 2013

Biomass 3%

European production 18.6 TWh

(Production capacity 8,193 MW)

Fortum's European

heat production in 2013

Peat 2% Oil 1%

Heat pumps, electricity

16%

Waste 12%

Coal

22%

Natural gas 19%

Biomass

28%

Fortum's European power and heat production

16

Page 17: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Fortum a forerunner in sustainability

• Carbon Disclosure Nordic Leadership Index

– Fortum no. 1, scores 100/100

• SAM Sustainability Yearbook

• STOXX® Global ESG Leaders indices

• oekom

• OMX GES Sustainability Finland Index

• Storebrand SRI

• ECPI® Indices

17

Page 18: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

European and Nordic power markets

18

Fortum today, pages 4 -17

European and Nordic power markets, pages 19 - 33

Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 34 - 38

Russia, pages 40 - 46

Data on capacity payments, pages 42 - 44

Fortum’s investment programme, page 46

Financials and outlook, pages 48 – 54

Hedges, pages 54 - 55

Page 19: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Market coupling milestones - cross-border power flows optimised by power exchanges

• Market coupling between NL, BE and FR since 2006

• Germany – Nord Pool Spot coupling started 11/2009

• Market coupling for Central Western Europe (DE, FR, NL, BE) since 11/2010 with a continued coupling with Nord Pool Spot

• NorNed cable (NO-NL) included in January 2011

• Poland coupled with Nord Pool Spot since December 2010

• UK coupling started through BritNed cable in April 2011

• Czech, Slovakia and Hungary coupled since September 2012

• Estonian price area in Nord Pool Spot since April 2010, Lithuanian bidding area from 6/2012. Latvia joined in June 2013, with the whole Baltic market now in Nord Pool Spot

• A common day-ahead market coupling for the whole north-western Europe started 4 February 2014

• Most other EU regions and Switzerland are preparing to join during 2014

• In addition to day-ahead coupling, intraday market coupling and balancing market integration targeted as well

• EU’s European Target Model for cross-border power trading sets 2014 as deadline for an EU-wide market coupling

19

2009

February

2014

2012

2010-

2013

2014

Page 20: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Current transmission capacity from Nordic area to Continental Europe is over 4000 MW

20

Countries Transmission capacity MW

From Nordics To Nordics

Denmark - Germany 2,365 2,100

Sweden - Germany 615 600

Sweden - Poland 600 600

Norway - Netherlands 700 700

Total 4,280 4,000

• Theoretical maximum in transmission capacity ~35 TWh

per annum

• Net export from Nordic area to Continental Europe

during the Nordic dry year 2013 was 2 TWh

• During 2012 net export was 17 TWh

• Approximately 20 TWh of net export is now reachable

700

2,365 615 600

860

Page 21: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Nordic and Continental markets are integrating – interconnection capacity will double by 2020

21

NO-UK link of 1,400 MW agreed to

be built by 2020; North Seas

Countries’ Offshore Grid Initiative

launched for supergrid development

First direct 1,400 MW NO-DE link

agreed to be built by 2018

EU financial support for a 700 MW

DK-NL link, due to be built by 2019

Jutland – DE capacity planned to

grow by 1,000-1,500 MW by 2018

EU support to connect Kriegers

Flak offshore wind area to DK&DE

by 2018

The Northern Seas Offshore Grid and the Baltic

Energy Market Integration Plan are included as

priority electricity corridors in EU’s Infrastructure

Guidelines, approved in April 2013

New interconnections will

double the capacity to

over 8,000 MW by 2020

LitPol Link (500+500 MW) to

connect the Baltic market to

Poland in 2015/20. It will open a

new transmission route from the

Nordic market to the Continent

EU’s European Energy Programme

for Recovery co-financing Estlink 2

(2014) and NordBalt (2015)

New internal Nordic and Baltic grid

investments provide for increased

available capacity for export to the

Continent and Baltics

Svenska Kraftnät is studying an

extension of the South West DC

Link from Sweden to Germany

350 MW of export capacity from

Finland to Russia due to become

available from April 2014

Page 22: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Nordic water reservoirs

22

Source: Nord Pool Spot

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

20

40

60

80

100

120

rese

rvo

ir c

on

ten

t (T

Wh

)

0

2000 2003 2013 2012 reference level 2014

Page 23: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Q4 deficit turned to surplus Higher than normal precipitation and lower than normal demand during Q4 refilled reservoirs

23

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13

EUR

/MW

h

TWh

fro

m n

orm

al

Reservoir deficit compared to normal

Norway reservoir balance Sweden reservoir balance Finland reservoir balance System price

Fortum Q4/2013

Hydro production

3.9 TWh

Fortum Q4/2012

Hydro production

7.1 TWh

Page 24: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Nordic year forwards

24

Source: NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe

Year 15 Year 17 Year 19 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 16 Year 18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

3 February 2014 €/MWh

Q1

2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2009

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2011

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2014

Page 25: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

EUR/MWh Nord Pool System Price Forwards

3 February 2014

Wholesale price for electricity

25

Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe

25

Page 26: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Wholesale prices for electricity

26

Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, APX-ENDEX, Bloomberg Finance LP, ATS, NP “Market Council”, Fortum

* Including weighted average capacity price

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Dutch

German

Nordic

Russian*

Spot prices Forward prices EUR/MWh

3 February 2014

2016 0

Page 27: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

0

30

60

90

120

150

US

D /

bb

l

Crude oil price (ICE Brent)

2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013 2014 20150

7

14

21

28

35

EU

R /

tC

O2

CO2 price (ICE ECX EUA)

2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013 2014 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

US

D /

t

Coal price (ICE Rotterdam)

2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013 2014 20150

20

40

60

80

100

GB

p /

th

erm

Gas price (ICE NBP)

2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013 2014 2015

27

Source: ICE

Market prices 3 February 2014; 2014-2015 future quotations

Fuel and CO2 allowance prices

Page 28: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Nordic power generation – dominated by hydro, but fossil needed

28

Source: ENTSO-E Memo 2012 *) Normal annual Nordic hydro generation 200 TWh, variation +/- 40 TWh.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Denmark Norway Sweden Finland

Fossil fuels

Nuclear

Biomass

Wind

Hydro *

TWh/a

Total Nordic generation

406 TWh in 2012

Net import in 2012: -14 TWh

24

83

TWh %

43

237

19

6

21

10

58

5

Page 29: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

29

Fortum’s Nordic generation capacity

SE1

SE2

SE3

SE4

MW Finland

Wind 3

Hydro 1 499

Nuclear 1 460

CHP 703

Other thermal 1 388

5 053

Generation capacity

in Finland

1 685

4 665

Other thermal

Hydro

Nuclear

CHP

3 247

Wind 17

Nordic capacity 10 929

1 315

Nordic MW

At the end of Q3 2012

Price areas MW

SE2 1 557

Hydro 1 543

Wind 14

SE3 4 022

Hydro 1623

Nuclear 1 787

CHP 612

Other thermal 297

SE4

Sweden

5 876

Generation capacity

in Sweden

Page 30: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

Still a highly fragmented Nordic power market

30

Power generation

406 TWh

>350 companies

Electricity distribution

15 million customers

~500 companies

Electricity retail

15 million customers

~350 companies

Vattenfall

33%

Statkraft

Dong Energy

Others

Fortum

E.ON PVO E-CO Energi

Agder Energi

Norsk Hydro

BKK

Fortum

Vattenfall

Others

E.ON

54%

SEAS-NVE

Hafslund

Helsinki

Göteborg

Syd Energi

Dong Energy

Elenia

Others

52%

E.ON

Vattenfall

Fortum

Dong Energy

Göteborg, DinEl

SEAS-NVE

Hafslund

Helsinki

Statkraft

Bixia

Source: Fortum, company data, shares of the largest actors, pro forma 2012 figures.

Page 31: FORTUMapps.fortum.fi/gallery/Fortum_investor_material_February_2014.pdf · Nr 3 Power generation Electricity sales Nr 2 Nr 1 Heat Distribution Nr 1 Key figures 2013 Sales EUR 6.1

New power generation capacity needed for increasing demand and retiring capacity replacements

31

• Growing global energy demand

will be increasingly fulfilled by

electricity in the future

• Substantial demand growth in

the emerging markets

• Retirements and moderate

demand growth in the EU

• Globally, ~6 000 GW of new

capacity needed by 2035

Source: IEA WEO 2013 (New polices scenario) 1) Total new capacity needed for increasing demand and replacements of retiring capacity

377

234

611

530

340

870

149

73

222

205

1328

1533

68

649

717

612

1487

2099

1941

4111

6052 New capacity, total (1

Capacity changes, 2013-2035 (GW)

Retiring capacity

US Europe Russia China India Other

areas

World

total

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

16%

44%

110%

221% Growth, 2011-2035

Primary energy demand

Electricity generation

Capacity increase

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New capacity will require over 60 EUR/MWh power price

32

Estimated lifetime average cost in nominal 2014 terms.

Large variations in cost of new hydro and wind due to location and conditions.

Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Clean coal

EUR/MWh

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Other costs ( variation)

CO2 cost

Coal 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Source: Nord Pool spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe

EUR/MWh

Futures

3 February 2014

1995 2013 2024

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Fortum’s investment programme – Nordic region and Baltic countries

33

Already commissioned in 2013

Blaiken, Sweden, wind power 30 Q1 2013

Klaipeda, Lithuania, waste CHP 20 60 Q2 2013

Järvenpää, Finland, biomass CHP 23 63 Q2 2013

Jelgava, Latvia, biomass CHP 23 45 Q2 2013

Brista, Sweden, waste CHP 20 57 Q4 2013

Additional electricity capacity around 830 MW, 100% CO2-free

Project Electricity, MW Heat, MW Commissioned

Olkiluoto 3, Finland 400

Swedish nuclear upgrades 290

Refurbishing of hydro power 10 Annually

Värtan, Sweden, biomass CHP 130 280 Q2 2016

Total ~ 830 ~ 280

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Overview of Fortum’s nuclear fleet

34

LOVIISA OLKILUOTO OSKARSHAMN FORSMARK

Commercial operation started

Unit 1: 1977

Unit 2: 1981

Unit 1: 1978

Unit 2: 1980

Unit 3: (Under construction)

Unit 1: 1972

Unit 2: 1974

Unit 3: 1985

Unit 1: 1980

Unit 2: 1981

Unit 3: 1985

Generation Capacity

Fortum’s share

Unit 1: 496 MW

Unit 2: 496 MW

Total: 992 MW

Unit 1: 880 MW

Unit 2: 880 MW

(Unit 3: 1,600 MW)

Total: 1,760 MW (3,360)

27% 468 MW

Unit 1: 473 MW

Unit 2: 638 MW

Unit 3: 1,400 MW

Total: 2,511 MW

43% 1,089 MW

Unit 1: 984 MW

Unit 2: 1,120 MW

Unit 3: 1,170 MW

Total: 3,274 MW

22% 720 MW

Yearly production

Fortum’s share of production

8 TWh

8 TWh

14 TWh

4 TWh

17 TWh

7 TWh

25 TWh

5.5 TWh

Share of Fortums Nordic production

18% 9% 16% 13%

Majority owner

Fortum’s share

Fortum

Pohjolan Voima

26.6%

E.ON

43.4%

Vattenfall

22.2%

Operated by Fortum Teollisuuden Voima (TVO)

OKG Aktiebolag Forsmarks Kraftgrupp

Responsibilities Loviisa: Fortum is the owner, licensee and operator with all the responsibilities specified in the Nuclear Energy Act, Nuclear Liability Act, and other relevant nuclear legislation

Other units: Fortum is solely an owner with none of the responsibilities assigned to the licensee in the nuclear legislation. Other responsibilities are specified in the

Companies Act and the Articles of Association and are mostly financial.

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Olkiluoto

Loviisa Forsmark

Oskarshamn

Fortum's nuclear power in the Nordics

35

• Finnish units world class in availability

• Overview of production and consumption: www.fortum.com/investors - energy related links

Source: Fortum

Load factor (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Osakarshamn 1 80 51 63 85 68 77 72 1 13

Oskarshamn 2 90 78 76 86 75 90 77 81 33

Oskarshamn 3 85 95 88 70 17 31 75 69 77

Forsmarks 1 85 76 81 81 88 93 79 88 87

Forsmark 2 94 72 85 79 64 39 94 82 89

Forsmark 3 95 92 88 69 86 81 85 93 88

Loviisa 1 95 93 94 86 96 93 94 84 92

Loviisa 2 95 88 96 93 95 89 94 91 93

Olkiluoto 1 98 94 97 94 97 92 94 90 97

Olkiluoto 2 94 97 94 97 95 95 90 96 93

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Variety of technologies and ages

36

PWR = Pressurized Water Reactor The most common reactor type in the world (e.g. all French units, most US units). Also the Loviisa units are PWRs, but based on Russian design.

High pressure prevents water from boiling n the reactor. The steam rotating the turbine is generated in separate steam generators.

BWR = Boiling Water Reactor Similar to the PWR in many ways, but the steam is generated directly in the reactor. Popular reactor type e.g. in Sweden, the US and Japan.

*Generation refers to technical resemblence based on KSU classification and not to reactor design generations. All reactors are of Generation II except Olkiluoto-3 (EPR) which is of Generation III.

Unit Mwe (Net) Share (%) Share (Mwe) Commercial

operation

Age Type/

Generation *

Supplier

Loviisa 1

Loviisa 2

496

496

100,0

100,0

496

496

1977-05-09

1981-01-05

36

33

PWR / 1

PWR / 1

AEE (Atomenergoexport)

AEE (Atomenergoexport)

Olkiluoto 1

Olkiluoto 2

Olkiluoto 3

880

880

(1,600)

26,6

26,6

25,0

234

234

(400)

1979-10-10

1982-07-10

(?)

34

31

BWR / 3

BWR / 3

PWR / 3

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Areva / Siemens

Oskarshamn 1

Oskarshamn 2

Oskarshamn 3

473

638

1,400

43,4

43,4

43,4

205

277

607

1972-02-06

1975-01-01

1985-08-15

42

39

28

BWR / 1

BWR / 2

BWR / 4

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Forsmark 1

Forsmark 2

Forsmark 3

984

1,120

1,170

23,4

23,4

20,1

230

233

236

1980-12-10

1981-07-07

1985-08-18

33

32

28

BWR / 3

BWR / 3

BWR / 4

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval

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Third party nuclear liability in case of severe accident

37

Sweden

(new, not

in force)

Finland,

temporary

legislation

Current,

Sweden

700 M€

200 M€ 360 M€

500 M€ Responsibility of company

(insurance or guarantee)

Unlimited

company

responsibility

Convention

parties 300 M€

State

responsibility

300 M€

500 M€

700 M€

New Paris

convention

700 M€

145 M€

145 M€

Old,

Finland

240 M€

145 M€

Has been approved by the Parliament.

In force 1.1.2012 onwards.

Law approved by Parliament in

2010, requires separate decision

from Government to come into

force.

Requires ratification by 2/3

of member states to come

into force. In Finland

approved by Parliament in

2005

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Nuclear upgrades in Sweden

38

Reactor

OKG 1

Completion

-

Increase 100% (MW)

0

Fortum's capacity increase

(MW)

Additional generation for Fortum

(TWh/a)

Fortum's capacity

after increase

(MW)

Fortum's generation

after increase

(TWh/a)

- 205 ~2

OKG 2 2009, 2015 30 + 180 95 355 ~3

OKG 3 2011 255 110 607 ~5

FKA 1 Decision 2014 120 ~25 257 ~2

FKA 2 2013 120 25 259 ~2

FKA 3 Decision 2014 170 ~35 270 ~2

Total ~290 ~2 ~1,950* ~15

Capacity increase and completion timetable based on recent estimate (Nord Pool).

*At 31.12.2013 Fortum's share of Swedish nuclear capacity was 1,817 MW.

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Russia

39

Fortum today, pages 4 -17

European and Nordic power markets, pages 19 - 33

Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 34 - 38

Russia, pages 40 - 46

Data on capacity payments, pages 42 - 44

Fortum’s investment programme, page 45

Financials and outlook, pages 48 – 54

Hedges, pages 54 - 55

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Russia is the World’s 4th largest power market

40

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

TWh

5,000

Power generation in 2012 based on gross output.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013

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Fortum - a major player in Russia

OAO Fortum (former TGC-10)

• Operates in the heart of Russia’s oil and gas producing region, fleet

mainly gas-fired CHP capacity

• 20 TWh power generation, 24 TWh heat production in 2013;

more than Fortum’s Nordic heat sales (14 TWh)

• Investment programme to add 85%, almost 2,400 MW to power

generation capacity

TGC-1

• Slightly over 25% of territorial generating company TGC-1 operating in

north-west Russia

• ~6,800 MW electricity production capacity (more than 40% hydro),

~28 TWh electricity, ~31 TWh heat in 2012

41

OAO Fortum

Tyumen

Tobolsk

Chelyabinsk

Nyagan

TGC-1

St. Petersburg

Moscow

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42

Day ahead wholesale market prices – increase driven by recovering demand and gas price

2

Key electricity, capacity and gas prices in the OAO Fortum area

IV13 IV/12 2013 2012

Electricity spot price (market

price), Urals hub, RUB/MWh

1,043 973 1,021 956

Average regulated gas price,

Urals region, RUB 1000 m3

3,423 2,924 3,131 2,736

Average capacity price for

CCS ”old capacity”,

tRUB/MW/month

181 168 163 152

Average capacity price for

CSA ”new capacity”,

tRUB/MW/month

635 627 576 539

Average capacity price,

tRUB/MW/month

326 254 276 227

Achieved power price for

OAO Fortum, EUR/MWh 33.3 30.9 32.1 30.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

€/

MW

h

Day ahead power market prices for Urals

In addition to the power price generators receive a capacity payment.

Source: ATS

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Power market liberalisation – two markets

43

Capacity wholesale market Electricity wholesale market

Capacity prices

• Competitive capacity selection (CCS) and free bilateral

agreements (FBA)

• A higher, fixed capacity price for new

capacity (CSA* agreements, built after 2007)

• Lower capacity price for old capacity, price caps limits the price in

some areas

• Old capacity intended for households are priced by regulated

bilateral agreements (RBA)

Electricity prices

• Day ahead (spot) market, financial market, free bilateral

agreements (FBA) and regulated bilateral agreements (RBA)

• Fully liberalised from 1 Jan 2011 except for volumes intended for

households priced by RBA (~10% of volume)

* Capacity supply agreement

•CSA is the intended mechanism for earning a (reasonable) return on invested capital in new capacity

•Capacity prices are a big part of a power generator’s income

– a typical CHP plant ~35%, CCGT ~55%, of revenues

•In the day ahead (spot) market, the price mechanism is a day ahead hourly auction. Supply – demand balance and

variable cost (fuel) are the key drivers for the spot price

•Financial market for electricity started in June, 2010

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44

Capacity prices for new capacity considerably higher than prices for old capacity prices

• Long term rules and price parameters approved

• Both “old” and “new” capacity can participate in capacity auctions

• Old capacity (pre 2007) and new capacity priced differently – Old capacity is priced by capacity auctions; price cap possibility

– New capacity under capacity supply agreements to receive guaranteed payments

• The payments for new capacity are based on approved pricing formulas – Vary according to plant size, fuel, geographic location, capital costs

– Allow the recovery of capital costs and include return on invested capital; the targeted ROCE level 12-14% (with current government benchmark bond yields)

– After three years (2014), the regulator will review the earnings from the electricity-only market and can revise the payments, same goes after 6 years.

• “Old” capacity prices will depend on auction outcomes, but will likely

remain relatively low; potentially price caps could limit the price

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Key factors behind the profitability improvement in Russia

45

Efficiency improvement programme 2008-2011

– Increasing heat production profitability

– Fuel efficiency improvement

– Cost savings

New CSA capacity commissioning 2011-2015

– Additional capacity 2,388 MW; +85%

– Capacity is sold at CSA (Capacity Supply

Agreement) contracts with guaranteed higher price

Pace of new capacity increase of Fortum investment programme in Russia

2011 - 638 MW

2012 - 0 MW

2013 - 836 MW

2014 - 418 MW

2015 - 496 MW

Total - 2,388 MW

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85% increase in power generation capacity in Russia by 2015 through the investment programme

46

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Financials and outlook

47

Fortum today, pages 4 -17

European and Nordic power markets, pages 19 - 33

Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 34 - 38

Russia, pages 40 - 46

Data on capacity payments, pages 42 - 44

Fortum’s investment programme, page 46

Financials and outlook, pages 48 – 54

Hedges, pages 54 - 55

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Income statement

MEUR IV/2013 IV/2012 2013 2012

Sales 1,590 1,834 6,056 6,159

Other income and expenses -1,097 -1,243 -4,449 -4,407

Comparable operating profit 493 591 1,607 1,752

Items affecting comparability 81 32 105 122

Operating profit 574 623 1,712 1,874

Share of profit of associates and jv’s 39 -3 105 23

Financial expenses, net -84 -77 -318 -311

Profit before taxes 529 543 1,499 1,586

Income tax expense -43 122 -220 -74

Net profit for the period 486 665 1,279 1,512

Non-controlling interests 28 59 75 96

EPS, basic (EUR) 0.52 0.68 1.36 1.59

EPS, diluted (EUR) 0.52 0.68 1.36 1.59

48

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Comparable and reported operating profit

IV/2013 IV/2012 IV/2013 IV/2012 2013 2012 2013 2012

Power 207 381 278 388 858 1,146 921 1,175

Heat 106 94 108 119 273 271 288 344

Russia 110 28 110 28 156 68 156 79

Distribution 77 102 76 104 331 320 348 331

Electricity Sales 7 10 11 6 48 39 56 39

Other -14 -24 -9 -22 -59 -92 -57 -94

Total 493 591 574 623 1,607 1,752 1,712 1,874

49

Comparable

operating profit

Comparable

operating profit

Reported

operating profit

Reported

operating profit MEUR

• Non-recurring items, IFRS accounting treatment (IAS 39) of derivatives and nuclear fund adjustments had an impact on the reported operating profit EUR 81 (32) million in the fourth quarter, EUR 105 (122) during 2013.

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Cash flow statement

MEUR IV/2013 IV/2012 2013 2012

Operating profit before depreciations 768 799 2,452 2,538

Non-cash flow items and divesting activities -156 -36 -260 -192

Financial items and fx gains/losses 33 -87 -250 -522

Taxes -71 -17 -229 -269

Funds from operations (FFO) 574 659 1,713 1,555

Change in working capital -198 -260 123 -173

Total net cash from operating activities 376 399 1,836 1,382

Paid capital expenditures -394 -503 -1,271 -1,422

Acquisition of shares -3 -11 -15 -14

Other investing activities -23 24 76 308

Cash flow before financing activities -44 -91 626 254

50

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Key ratios

MEUR 2013 2012

EBITDA 2,452 2,538

Comparable EBITDA 2,299 2,416

Interest-bearing net debt 7,849 7,814

Comparable net debt/EBITDA 3.4 3.2

51

Return on capital employed, ROCE (%) 9.2 10.2

Return on shareholders’ equity, ROE (%) 12.0 14.6

Good liquidity – committed credit lines total EUR 2.2 billion

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Debt Maturity Profile

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+

Bonds Financial institutions Other long-term debt CPs Other short-term debt

MEUR

2014 2,142

2015 1,088

2016 884

2017 580

2018 668

2019 833

2020 77

2021 551

2022 971

2023 116

2024+

TOTAL

1,208

9,118

52

per 31 Dec, 2013 per 31 Dec, 2012

Average Interest Rate (incl. swaps and forwards) 3.6 % 4.5 %

Portion of floating / fixed debt 51 / 49 % 45 / 55 %

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Outlook

• Nordic markets

‒ Fortum continues to expect that the annual electricity demand growth will average 0.5% in the coming years

‒ Electricity continues to gain share of total energy consumption

• Russia

‒ Fortum’s goal is to achieve an operating profit level (EBIT) of about EUR 500 million run-rate in its Russia Division during 2015

• Key drivers and risks

‒ Wholesale price of electricity and volumes • demand and supply • fuels

• hydrological situation • power plant availability

• CO2 emissions allowance prices

53

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Outlook

• Annual capex estimate excluding potential acquisitions – 2014 EUR 0.9 to 1.1 billion (incl. Finnish distribution Q1/2014, excluding Värme)

• Hedging – Year 2014 approximately 60% hedge ratio at approximately EUR 43/MWh

(Q3: 65% at EUR 42/MWh)

– 2015 approximately 20% hedge ratio at approximately EUR 41/MWh

(Q3: 20% at EUR 41/MWh)

• Target for efficiency programme is to improve cash flow by EUR 1 billion during 2013-2014

• Taxation

– Effective tax rate for the Group 19-21%

• In Finland, the corporate tax rate to be reduced from 24.5% to 20% starting 1 January 2014

– A power plant tax was approved in December 2013. The tax will be enacted later and it will be applied from the beginning of 2014, provided that the EU Commission approves it. Fortum has filed a complaint. If implemented, the estimated impact on Fortum would be approximately EUR 25 million annually.

54

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Hedging improves stability and predictability

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Achieved power price Spot price, SE&FI avg.

EUR/MWh

2009 onwards thermal and import from Russia excluded

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Efficiency programme launched to maintain and strengthen the strategic flexibility and competitiveness

56

"The core of our activities is to fulfill our strategy of long-term

business operations, the aim of which is to strengthen our Nordic

core business, create solid earnings growth in Russia and build a

platform for future growth"

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• Efficiency programme half way through

• proceeding according to plan

• Total annual cost savings visible in all divisions

• Improved working capital efficiency

• Divestments of non-core assets totalling approximately EUR 300

million

Fortum's efficiency programme 2013-2014

57

SPEED - Cash flow improved by EUR 1 billion – FLEXIBILITY

CAPEX EUR 250-350 million

DIVESTMENTS EUR 500 million

WORKING CAPITAL

Reduction

FIXED COSTS

Reduce EUR 150 million compared to 2012

WHY WHAT WHEN

2013-2014

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Facts of Distribution

MEUR Fortum’s distribution

segment 2013 without

Finnish operations

Operating profit 271

Comparable operating profit 258

Comparable EBITDA 410

Net assets (at period-end) 2,950

Comparable RONA % 8.7

Capital expenditure 134

Number of employees 515

58

Fortum Distribution (2013) • Customers: 1.6 million

• Length of network: ~156,000 km

• Nr of employees: ~ 850

• Sales: 1,075 MEUR

• Comparable operating profit: 331 MEUR

• Comparable EBITDA: 550 MEUR

• Net assets: 3,770 MEUR

January 2013:

Strategic assessment

commenced

December 2013:

Assessment has been

completed, divestment the

best alternative

– Evaluation of divestment

opportunities country by

country

Closing by the end of

Q1/2014:

Divestment of Distribution

Finland

Ongoing:

Evaluation of divestment

opportunities country by

country

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