nrc live - energydrive - kitty vd heijden

8/18/2019 NRC Live - EnergyDrive - Kitty Vd Heijden

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NATIONAL COMMITMENTS

Source: CAIT Paris Contributions Map/WRI

187 INDCs 99% GHG emissions


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STEDEN GAAN VOOROP

45cities joiCompac

Source: Compact of Mayors


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PRIVATE SECTOR LOOPT VOOROP

Photo: COP Paris/Flickr


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FROM DOING BETTER TO DOING ENOUGH124 COMPANIES COMMIT TO SCIENCE BASED TARGE

Source: http://sciencebasedtargets.org/

Acciona

Aditya Birla Chemicals

Alpro

ASICS

AstraZenecaAtos SE

Australian Ethical

Investment

Autodesk

Avery Dennison

AXA Group

BanColombia

Bank Australia

Bank J. Safra Sarasin AGBillerudKorsnäs AB

Broad Group

Brown-Forman Corporation

BT Group

Caesars Entertainment

Carrefour

China Steel Corporation

CLP Holdings Limited

Coca-Cola Enterprises

Coca-Cola HBC

Colgate Palmolive

Company

Commerzbank AGCompass Group USA

Correos (Grupo SEPI)

Coway Co.

CTT - Correios de Portugal

SA

Danone

Dell Inc.

Delta Electronics, Inc

Dentsu Inc.Diageo Plc

EDP - Energias de Portugal

Eneco

Enel

Exxaro

Gamesa Corporación

Tecnológica

Gas Natural Fenosa

General Mills

Gestamp

Givaudan SA

GlaxoSmithKline

Green Coast Rubbish Inc.GreenStep Solutions Inc

H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB

Hewlett Packard Enterprise

Honda Motor Company

Iberdrola SA

ICA Gruppen AB

Ikea

Infigen Energy

ING

International Web exPress

Inc.

KAO Corporation

Kellogg Company

Kering

Kingfisher

Konica Minolta, Inc.

Koninklijke KPN NV (Royal

KPN)

L'Oréal

Mars, Incorporated

Mills Office Productivity

Morgan Sindall Group plcMVV Energie AG

National Express Group

National Grid

Natura

Nestlé

Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.

Novartis

Novex Delivery Solutions

NRG Energy Inc

OpenConcept Consulting

Inc.

Origin Energy

Panalpina

Pfizer

Philip Morris International

(PMI)

Pick 'n Pay Stores Ltd

Principal Financial Grou

Procter & Gamble

Company

Proximus

Pukka Herbs LtdPUMA SE

Recollective

RELX Group

Renault

Ricoh Co., Ltd.

Royal Philips

Safaricom Limited

Senior plc

Sharp Six ServicesSodexo

Sofidel

Sony

Sopra Steria Group

SSE plc

Stora Enso

Suez Environnement

TAV Airports

http://sciencebasedtargets.org/http://sciencebasedtargets.org/


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WHAT TO WATCH:57 COMPANIES HAVE COMMITTED TO 100%RENEWABLE ENERGY


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EEN NIEUWE ENERGIE(KE) COALITIE

Breakthrough Energy Coalition27 Billionaires to invest personalwealth to bring clean energyinnovations to market

Image: Sustainable Brands


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RESULTATEN COP21


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REACTIES OP PARIS AGREEMENT

Barack Obama

“a turning point for

the world”

Angela Merkel

“it is a sign of hope…

for the billions”

Jean-Claude Juckner, ECPresident

“will steer the worldtowards a global cleanenergy transition”

Tony de Brum,Marshall Islands Minister

“our chance for surv

is not lost”

Xia Zhenhua,China Special RepresentativClimate Change

“a historical step

forward”

Narendra Modi

“climate justice won”


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PARIS AGREEMENT’S ‘ENTRY INTO FORCE’


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PARIS AGREEMENT’S ‘ENTRY INTO FORCE’


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RAMPING UP AMBITION - RESPONSIVE TO SCIENC

• ‘Global Stocktake’ over voortgang in uitvoering elke 5 jaar

• Updated NDCs van elk land, elke 5 jaar

• Meer ambitie in mitigatie, adaptatie, en ondersteuning in uitvoerin


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MEER AMBITIE NODIG

Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates


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MEER AMBITIE NODIG



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MEER AMBITIE NODIG


NET ZERO EMISSIONS LONG TERM GOAL


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NET ZERO EMISSIONS LONG-TERM GOAL

• Agreement includes the long-term goal to limit temperature risbelow 2°C (3.5°F) and pursue efforts to limit increase to 1.5

• The long-term goal also commits countries to end carbon-intenpractices and ramp up efforts to reach net zero GHGs as soopossible


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KEY MILESTONES


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Source: “ The Global Risks Report 2016.” Figure 1.2. World Economic Forum

.

Global Risks of Highest Concern: For the Next 18



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Source: “ The Global Risks Report 2016.” Figure 1.2. World Economic Forum



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DE UITDAGING: UITVOERING


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Source: OECD/IEA 2016

Mtoe

-300

0

300

600

900

1 200

European

Union

United

States

Japan Latin

America

Middle

East

Southeast

Asia

Africa China India

Energy use wo rldwid e grows by one third to 2040, dr iven by As ia;

EU energy demand decl ines by 15% over the period

TRENDS: VRAAG NAAR ENERGIE, PER REGIO, 201

TRENDS MONDIALE ENERGIE GERELATEERDE EMIS


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IEA analysis shows renewables, led by win d, and imp rovemen

in energy eff ic iency w ere key to keeping em ission s f lat for a second ye

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Gt

1975 1980 1990 2000 2010 201

Global economic

downturn

Dissolution of

Soviet UnionSecond

oil shock

1985 1995 2005

TRENDS: MONDIALE ENERGIE-GERELATEERDE EMISSTABILISEREN

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

TRENDS: 20+ COUNTRIES HAVE DECOUPLED ECONOMIC


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TRENDS: 20 COUNTRIES HAVE DECOUPLED ECONOMIC FROM GHG EMISSIONS

US RGGIGDP +9.2%

Emissions -18%(2009-2013)

BritishColumbia

GDP +8%Emissions -4%

(2008-2013)

BrazilGDP +101%

Emissions -15%(1990-2013)

*including land use

change

UnitedStatesGDP +28%

Emissions -6%

(2000-2014)

UkraineGDP +49%

Emissions -29%

(2000-2014)

UnitedKingdom

GDP +27%Emissions -20%

(2000-2014)

FranceGDP +16%

Emissions -19%

(2000-2014)

GermanyGDP +16%

Emissions -12%

(2000-2014)

UzbeGDP

Emissi

(2000


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TRENDS: KOLEN BLIJVEN DOMINEREN

Source: BGR (2013). Note: Reserves refer to the amount that is technically and economically recoverable. The totalphysical amount of non-renewable energy (“resources”) is about ten times higher than the amount of reserves.

0 1,000 2,0 00 3,0 00 4,0 00 5,0 00 6,00 0 7,00 0 8,00 0 9,000 1 0,00 0

Africa

Europe

Latin America

North America

Austral-Asia

CIS

Middle East

Reserves of non-renewable energy sources across regions in 2012 (E


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TRENDS: NIEUWE KOLENCENTRALES (VOORAL IN ZUID E

Proposed global coal-fired generating capacity at different stages of plaaccording to regions (GW, 2014)

Source: Sierra Club (2015) Boom and Bust.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

390

16

124

6

77

1031

650

33

EU28Latin America

Eurasia otherEurope

Southern Africa

East Asia

Canada& US

South Asia

Southeast Asia

C

P

A

P

TRENDS PEAK COAL ?


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TRENDS: PEAK COAL ?

Source: Global Coal Plant Tracker (2015), Sierra Club (2015) Boom and Bust.

Outcome of coal-fired capacity in the developmentpipeline since 1.1.2010 (MW)

300,000

100,000

400,000

800,000

200,000

600,000

0

500,000

700,000

East Asia WorldTotal

Halted(shelved orcancelled)

Completed

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

JapaChina Taiwan

SouthKorea

Permitted

Announced

Pre-permit de

Construction

Proposed coal-fired generating capacity in Eas

TRENDS: UPSTREAM INVESTERINGEN IN OLIE EN GAS BLIJV


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-16%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$ b i l l i o n ( n o m i n a l )

Upstream oi l and gas investment cont inu es to fall , part icularly in high-co

this raises the prospect of increasing rel iance on the Middle East in th

TRENDS: UPSTREAM INVESTERINGEN IN OLIE EN GAS BLIJV

CARBON BUBBLE


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Source: World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA

G t C O 2

CARBON BUBBLE

DE FINANCIELE RISICO’S VAN EEN CARBON BU


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DE FINANCIELE RISICO’S VAN EEN CARBON BU

Image: Angela Radulescu/Flickr

FSB Appoints Michael Bloomberg to lead Task Force

WILL G20 EMBRACE SYSTEMIC REFORM


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WILL G20 EMBRACE SYSTEMIC REFORM

Photo: Alex Proimos/Flickr

• Disclosure guidelines• Environmental stress tests

• Lenders liability

• Green bond regulations

• Etc.

TRENDS: INVESTERINGEN 2008 2015


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TRENDS: INVESTERINGEN, 2008-2015

BNEF, april 2016, UNEP

TRENDS: GROEI IN HERNIEUWBARE ENERGIE ZET D


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TRENDS: GROEI IN HERNIEUWBARE ENERGIE ZET DRenewable power is changing our energy future

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

More capacity for renewable energy is being added each year thagas, and coal combined—and the gap is only going to grow

VERSNELLING ENERGIETRANSITIE IS ESSENTIEE


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Energy eff ic iency & renewables accoun t for the bulk of the addit ional

reduct io ns required for a 2 ° C pathway, but al l forms of clean energies a

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

G t

Trend post-COP 21

2 °C Scenario

17.9 Gt

Energy effi

Fuel & tech

switching i

Renewable

Nuclear

CCS

Other

VERSNELLING ENERGIETRANSITIE IS ESSENTIEE

ENERGIE EFFICIENTIE VERGT EXTRA INZET


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IEA, 2014. Capturing the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency. International Energy Agency,

Paris. Available at: http://www.iea.org/bookshop/475-Capturing_the_Multiple_Benefits_of_Energy_Efficiency.

http://www.iea.org/bookshop/475-Capturing_the_Multiple_Benefits_of_Energy_Efficiencyhttp://www.iea.org/bookshop/475-Capturing_the_Multiple_Benefits_of_Energy_Efficiency


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KOST LOW CARBON GROWTH MEER?


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KOST LOW CARBON GROWTH MEER?

2015-2030

$89 trillion: Global infrastructure investment

+$9 trillion: Additional energy efficiency investments+$5 trillion: Additional low carbon power technology

-$7 trillion: Reduced spending on fossil fuels inves

-$3 trillion: Savings from compact cities---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

$93 trillion: Low carbon global infrastructure investm

-$5 trillion: Operating costs reductions---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

$88 trillion: Real low carbon scenario

Source: New Climate Economy

KOST KLIMAATACTIE GROEI EN BANEN


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KOST KLIMAATACTIE GROEI EN BANEN

Nee, integendeel:

• Forces Resource Efficiency

• Promotes New Technology

• Helps Close the Infrastructure Gap

• Provides Long-term Predictable Policy

• Reduces Pollution and Congestion

New Climate Economy


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7.7mln banen inHE sector

16mln

KOSTEN HERNIEUWBARE ENERGIE DALEN STERK


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Wind power costs over time

Note: Assuming coal price of 70 USD/tonne and gas price of 10 USD/Mmbtu. Assuming a 35% capacity factor for wind power i.e. 35% utilisation, and a 15%

capacity factor for solar power

USD/MWhUSD/MWh

Solar power costs over time

1995 201020001990 2005

Fossil fuel

range, indicative

Solar PV, historical

Best utility-scale

project, 2014

C

Nat

2014

Sources: Citi Research 2012; G. F Nemet, “Beyond the learning curve”, Energy Policy 34, 3218 -3232 (2006);Bloomberg NEF (Turner 2013); IEA World Energy Outlook 2013, WEO 2012


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164

Latenna

tar


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IRENA 2016

INNOVATION IN MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES


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(WRI chart using OECDstat data, 2013)

P a t e n t s

a p p l i c a t i o n s

i n d e x e d t o 2 0 0 0 l e v e l s

Total renewable &non-fossil techno

Solar PV

WindSolar thermal

Hydro (excludingconventional)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

All Patents

STOP SUBSIDIZING THE WRONG THING


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1990

(IEA 2013; IMF 2015)

Fossil fuels vs. renewable energy

Fossil fuelsubsidies

Renewable ensubsidies

$5.3t(includingexternalities)

$500b $100b


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CARBPRICINLEADECOALI

NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY


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GROEI HERNIEUWBARE ENERGIE VOORAL IN EMERGING MA


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Shares of net additional renewable power capacity, 20

Source: Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Report 2015. International Energy

Agency. https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2015sum.pdf

As the OECD slows,countries account for renewable growth, dr

growing power d

diversification needpollution conc

CHINA DE GROOTSTE INVESTEERDER IN

https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2015sum.pdfhttps://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2015sum.pdfhttps://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2015sum.pdf


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1/3

Photo: The Climate Group/Flickr

HERNIEUWBARE ENERGIE

van dmondinves

CHINA’S NIEUWE VISIE


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"China's development shouldnot just be focused on growth

pace, but, more importantly,on growth quality”

– President XiSource: http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/11/03/191s902485.htm ;

Image: UN Photo/Loey Felipe/Flickr

DE KOSTEN VAN MILIEU DEGRADATIE

http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/11/03/191s902485.htmhttp://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/11/03/191s902485.htm


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Photo: V.T. Polywoda/Flickr

0

2

4

6

8

10

C O S T O F E N V I R O N M E N T A L

D E G R A D A T I O N A S

% O F G D P E Q U I

V A L E N T

CHINA: 9.2% OF GDP

CHINA’S NIEUWE ONTWIKKELINGSPAD


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• Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 (or earlier)

• Double non-fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2030

• Reduce carbon intensity 60 –65% from 2005 levels b

• Carbon market in 2017

Source: UNFCC; Photo: Peter F/Flickr


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INDIA’S BOLD RENEWABLE ENERGY


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Image: WRI visual

ATLANTA BARCELONA

DIFFERENT MODELS, VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES


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Atlanta’s built-up area Barcelona’s built-up area

Population: 2.5 millionUrban area: 4,280 km2

Transport carbon emissions: 7.5 tonnes CO2 perperson (public+ private transport)

Population: 2.8 millionUrban area: 162 km2

Transport carbon emissions: 0.7CO2 per person (public+ private

ATLANTA BARCELONA


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Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)

Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012

HUGE OPPORTUNITY


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75%of 2050 urban

infrastructure inIndia not yet built

IS DE EU EEN LEIDER?


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Note: Annual total investment in clean energy. Source; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

China USA Eu

$ U S

B i l l i o n s

Renewable Energy Investment2014

NEDERLAND HEKKENSLUITER


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Notes: 2013 estimates; (‘) Legally binding targets for 2020. Source: Eurostat (online data code t2020_31)ttp://ec.europa.eu/

eurostat/statisticseplained/index.php/File:Share_of_renewables_in_gross_final_energy_consumption,_2013_and_2020_(%25)_YB15.png

Share of Renewables in Gross Final Energy Consumpt

2013 and 2020 targets (%)

EU AMBITIONS GOING FORWARD

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticseplained/index.php/File:Share_of_renewables_in_gross_final_energy_consumption,_2013_and_2020_(%)_YB15.pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticseplained/index.php/File:Share_of_renewables_in_gross_final_energy_consumption,_2013_and_2020_(%)_YB15.pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticseplained/index.php/File:Share_of_renewables_in_gross_final_energy_consumption,_2013_and_2020_(%)_YB15.pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticseplained/index.php/File:Share_of_renewables_in_gross_final_energy_consumption,_2013_and_2020_(%)_YB15.pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticseplained/index.php/File:Share_of_renewables_in_gross_final_energy_consumption,_2013_and_2020_(%)_YB15.png


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PRIVATE SECTOR – FRIENDS OR FOES?


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Source: InfluenceMap http://influencemap.org/filter/List-of-Companies-and-Influencers

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

As Bs Cs Ds Es

P e r c e n t o f c o r p o r a t i o n s i n a G i v e n R e g i o n

Ranking

Corporations and the Degree to Which They Influence Climate Policy and LegOrganized by Region

North America

Europe

HOW DO TRADE ASSOCIATIONS LOBBYCorporations and the Degree to Which They Influence Climate Policy and Le

http://influencemap.org/filter/List-of-Companies-and-Influencershttp://influencemap.org/filter/List-of-Companies-and-Influencers


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Source: InfluenceMap http://influencemap.org/filter/List-of-Companies-and-Influencers

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Cs Ds Es

P e r c e n t o f T r a d e A s s o c i a t i o n s i n a

G i v e n

R e g i o n

Ranking

Corporations and the Degree to Which They Influence Climate Policy and LeOrganized by Region

North America

Europe

WE MUST TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOME

http://influencemap.org/filter/List-of-Companies-and-Influencershttp://influencemap.org/filter/List-of-Companies-and-Influencers


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Image: Flickr/British Mens Road Race Cycling Championships

“Homework” in energy se

1. Phase out coal

2. Enhance energy efficientransport, buildings

3. Phase out fossil fuel sub

4. Realistic price on carbon5. Boost investment in rene

power generation

6. Reduce methane emissgas production


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NOT A WALK IN THE PARK


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Source:, Rob Mcqueary, 2013


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KITTYV

Thank You

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