NRC Study on Human Spaceflight

Michael H. Moloney, Ph.D. Director

Space Studies BoardAeronautics and Space Engineering Board

National Research Council

Outline

>> The National Academies and the ASEB & SSB >> Quick look at some NRC reports of relevance to a human spaceflight

>> Committee on Human Spaceflight

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The National Academy of Science (NAS) was established on March 3 1863 by Act of Congress, signed into law by President Lincoln in the midst of the Civil War.

NAS was established to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science or art" whenever called upon to do so by any department of the government. The National Academy of Engineering (NAE) was established in 1964 and the Institute of Medicine in 1970.

The National Research Council serves as the principal operating arm of the NAS and NAE in providing services to the government, the public, & the scientific & engineering communities.

Together these are the National Academies.

Space and Aeronautics at the NRC

Space Studies Board and the

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

One of the larger units in the NRC. Conducts studies for NASA, USGS, USAF,

NOAA, etc. Encompasses all of Space Science, Space

Engineering, and Aeronautics.

SSB’s Signature product are the decadal surveys in space science—including planetary science and life/physical sciences.

ASEB prioritizes NASA’s technology development

Outline

>> The National Academies and the ASEB & SSB >> Quick look at some NRC reports of relevance to a human spaceflight

>> Committee on Human Spaceflight

6

NRC and Human ExplorationWill look at some salient advice from:

•The Human Exploration of Space (1997)

•Science in NASA's Vision for Space Exploration (2005)

•America's Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (2009)

•Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science (2011)

•Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (2011)

•NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA's Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in Space (2012)

•NASA's Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (2012)

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The Human Exploration of Space (1997)SCIENTIFIC PREREQUISITES FOR THE HUMAN EXPLORATION OF SPACESCIENTIFIC OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HUMAN EXPLORATION OF SPACE

SCIENCE MANAGEMENT IN THE HUMAN EXPLORATION OF SPACE

• “Exploration" does not exist in isolation from scientific research. There are, however, two distinctly different categories of science that must be considered. There is the "enabling" science required if we are to conduct human exploration at all. Then, there is the ''enabled'' science made possible, or significantly enhanced, because it is carried out in conjunction with a program of human exploration.

• Science permeates all aspects of human exploration, no matter which architecture is finally selected and regardless of which set of candidate goals and objectives evolves. The involvement of the scientific community is needed to help set the goals for purely robotic missions, to analyze both scientific and engineering data, to structure appropriate tasks for humans, and to assist in the optimal integration of human and robotic activities. …… Success will require a technical and programmatic approach that eliminates the historical dichotomy between the "manned" and "unmanned" spaceflight programs.

• The International Space Station program offers an opportunity to experiment and to begin forging a consensus on an optimal management approach. This could lead to a closer integration of the science and human exploration communities than has been achieved in the past, with a commensurate increase in both the likelihood of a human exploration program and the ultimate scientific return from it.

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Science in NASA's Vision for Space Exploration (2005)

• The appropriate science in a vibrant space program is nothing less than that science that will transform our understanding of the universe around us, and will in time transform us into a space-faring civilization that extends the human presence across the solar system.

• Human spaceflight presents a clear opportunity to change our sense of our place in the universe. “It surely will be a transformative event to place humans on Mars.”

• However……the committee noted that we do not know with confidence today how to sustain humans in microgravity and how to protect them from the effects of space radiation for long periods.

• The committee recommended that “NASA identify scientific and technical areas critical to enabling the human exploration program and that it move quickly to give those areas careful attention in a process that emphasizes crosscutting reviews to reflect their interdisciplinary scope, generates rigorous priority setting like that achieved in the decadal science surveys, and utilizes input from a broad range of expertise in the scientific and technical community.”

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America's Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (2009)

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• The committee identified six strategic goals that it regarded as basic for guiding program choices and resources planning for U.S. civil space activities. One was…

o To expand the frontiers of human activities in space. Human spaceflight continues to challenge technology, utilize unique human capabilities, bring global prestige, and excite the public’s imagination. Space provides almost limitless opportunities for extending the human experience to new frontiers.

• Report noted that it is “reasonable to expect that, in this century, humans will again surpass previous limits and will visit asteroids, travel to the moons of Mars, and establish a martian base similar in scale to those in Antarctica”.

• In the committee’s view, the leadership and inspiration achieved by expanding the frontiers of human spaceflight are worth the dangers faced in such exploration; lesser objectives may not be worth the same risk.

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Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science (2011)

• The human exploration of space is undertaken to serve a variety of national and international interests……. but science is not the primary motivation.

• Measurements using remote sensing across the electromagnetic spectrum, atmospheric measurements, or determinations of particle flux density are by far best and most economically conducted using robotic spacecraft. But there is an important subset of planetary exploration that can benefit from human spaceflight and humans can realistically explore the surfaces of only the Moon, Mars, Phobos and Deimos, and some asteroids.

• Mars is the only planet in the solar system that is realistically accessible to human exploration.

• On the basis of the importance of questions relating to the search for past or present biological activity on Mars, the committee concluded that for the more distant future, human explorers with robotic assistance may contribute more to the scientific exploration of Mars than they can to any other body in the solar system.

• Robotic missions to Mars, either purely for science or as precursors to a human landing, can provide the basic scientific data and lay the groundwork for a human presence. Humans will then take exploration to the next steps by making sense of the complex Martian environment, rapidly making on-the-spot decisions to choose the right spots for sampling, performing the best experiments, and then interpreting the results and following up opportunistically.

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Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era

(2011)• This report examines the fundamental science and technology that underpin developments whose payoffs for human exploration programs will be substantial.

o Example: The critical ability to collect or produce large amounts of water from a source such

as the Moon or Mars, which requires a scientific understanding of how to retrieve and refine water-bearing materials from extremely cold, rugged regions under partial-gravity conditions. Once cost-effective production is available, water can be transported to either surface bases or orbit for use in the many exploration functions that require it. Major cost savings will result from using that water in a photovoltaic-powered electrolysis and cryogenics plant to produce liquid oxygen and hydrogen for propulsion.

• The report identifies priority research areas in a diverse set of areas – human health, plant biology, fundamental and applied physical research, etc. The priorities can be renormalized based on whatever policy decision is made on destination. So for a Mars mission some priority research areas are (no particular order):

• Dust mitigation.

• How do plants and microbes adjust to partial gravity after a long duration microgravity transit?

• The affect of partial gravity on decompression sickness mitigation protocols

• The affects of strong decelerations on a human crew, with aerocapture for instance.

• The challenge of a food supply plan for a 3 year mission to Mars.

• Etc. Etc.

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NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA's Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in

Space (2012)• The technology priorities recommended were generated with an awareness of NASA’s then (2011) current mission plans, but the priorities are not closely linked to any particular set of future NASA missions because the goals and schedules of individual missions frequently change.

o Technology Objective A: Extend and sustain human

activities beyond low Earth orbit. Technologies to enable humans to survive long voyages throughout the solar system, get to their chosen destination, work effectively, and return safely.

A5) Rapid Crew TransitA6) Lightweight Space StructuresA7) Increase Available Power A8) Mass to SurfaceA9) Precision LandingA10) Autonomous Rendezvous, and Dock

A1) Improved Access to SpaceA2) Space Radiation Health Effects A3) Long-Duration Health EffectsA4) Long-Duration Environmental Control and Life Support SystemsA5) Rapid Crew Transit

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NASA's Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (2012)

• A human mission to Mars has been the ultimate goal of the U.S. human spaceflight program. This goal has been studied extensively by NASA and received rhetorical support from numerous U.S. presidents, and has been echoed by some international space officials, but it has never received sufficient funding to advance beyond the rhetoric stage. Such a mission would be very expensive and hazardous, which are the primary reasons that such a goal has not been actively pursued.

• There also is no national consensus on what would constitute an appropriate mix of NASA’s capability-driven and mission-driven programs. While a capabilities-driven approach may be the most reasonable approach given budget realities, such an approach still has to be informed by a clear, consistent, and constant path to the objective.

• There is no national consensus on strategic goals and objectives for NASA. Absent such a consensus, NASA cannot reasonably be expected to develop enduring strategic priorities for the purpose of resource allocation and planning.

• The administration should take the lead in forging a new consensus on NASA’s future that is stated in terms of a set of clearly defined strategic goals and objectives. This process should apply both within the administration and between the administration and Congress and should be reached only after meaningful technical consultations with potential international partners. The strategic goals and objectives should be ambitious, yet technically rational, and should focus on the long term.

• If the United States seeks to undertake a human mission to Mars, such a mission will undoubtedly require the efforts and budgets of many nations.

Outline

>> The National Academies and the ASEB & SSB >> Quick look at some NRC reports of relevance to a human spaceflight

>> Committee on Human Spaceflight

15

Committee on Human SpaceflightRequested by Section 204 of the NASA Authorization Act 2010, to “review the long-term goals, core capabilities, and direction of the U.S. human spaceflight program and make recommendations to enable a sustainable U.S. human spaceflight program.” The following is a summary of the task:

•Consider the goals for the human spaceflight program as set forth in various policy documents and the law.

•Solicit broadly-based, but directed, public and stakeholder input.

•Describe the expected value and value proposition of NASA’s human spaceflight activities.

•Identify a set of high-priority enduring questions that describe the rationale for and value of human exploration in a national and international context.

•Consider prior studies examining human space exploration, and NASA’s work with international partners, to understand possible exploration pathways.

•Examine the relationship of national goals to foundational capabilities, robotic activities, technologies, and missions authorized by the NASA Authorization Act of 2010 by assessing them with respect to the set of enduring questions.

•Provide findings, rationale, prioritized recommendations, and decision rules that could enable and guide future planning for U.S. human space exploration.

Study committee is being assisted by a Technical Panel and a Public and Stakeholder Opinions Panel

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Committee on Human SpaceflightSubmitting an Input Paper to the Committee on Human Spaceflight

A request for input papers has been open to any and all interested individuals and groups wishing to submit their own ideas on the role of human spaceflight and their vision for a suggested future.

In developing their papers, respondents are asked to carefully consider the following broad questions.

• What are the important benefits provided to the United States and other countries by human spaceflight endeavors?

• What are the greatest challenges to sustaining a U.S. government program in human spaceflight?

• What are the ramifications and what would the nation and world lose if the United States terminated NASA's human spaceflight program?

Deadline is July 9th - today! • White papers already submitted can be viewed at

http://bit.ly/13mEg1i

More information at www.nationalacademies.org/humanspaceflight

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