nrel state and local solar technical assistance -...
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NREL State and Local Solar Technical Assistance
Elizabeth Doris
September 19, 2017
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Transforming Energy through Science
NREL advances the science and engineering of energy
efficiency, sustainable transportation, and renewable
power technologies and provides the knowledge to
integrate and optimize energy systems.
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40 Years of Clean Energy Research
Nearly 1,700 employees, including more
than 300 early-career researchers and
visiting scientists
World-class facilities, renowned
technology experts
Nearly 750 partnerships
Campus operates as a living laboratory
National economic impact of $872 million
annually
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Complex Problems and Forward Looking Solutions
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Cutting Edge Analytic Approach
Advanced
Energy System
Designs
Credible and Data and Modeling • Early Stakeholder engagement and design
• Peregrine computer, 2.25 Petaflops
• Immersive, interactive visualization provides insight into complex systems
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Spot Assistance
Specific questions
accessing lab resources
Funded by DOE or internal funds
PartnershipPilots
Broader questions in
national interest
Funded by outside parties (co-proposal)
Partnership/ Technology
Services
Tailored questions, new
research
Funded by end users
Working with NREL
https://www.nrel.gov/technical-assistance/states.html
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By the Numbers
749 active partnerships with
industry, academia, and
government
• 259 new partnership
agreements in 2016
• $43 million value of 2016 new
partnership agreements
• 266 unique new partners
• 503 unique active partners
Technical Assistance Programs
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Jurisdictional Access to Laboratory Resources
NREL brings world class decision grade information to jurisdictions: • Six currently available programs by jurisdiction and
technology type• Over 1,500 completed requests since 2009• Impact measurement built in• Integrated into measured capacity building pipeline
Jurisdictions inquiries inform research agenda.• City carbon abatement potential (new!)• Policy development strategies (Energy Policy)• National Community Solar Guidebook (2012)
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Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) Network
The Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is a network of solar technology and implementation experts who provide timely, unbiased expertise to assist policymakers and regulators in making informed decisions about solar programs and policies.
STAT has supported over 80 jurisdictions in 40 states since 2013.
2016-2018 STAT Network partners:
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STAT TA: Summary
Source: NREL, 2016
https://www.nrel.gov/technical-assistance/states.html
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Like what?
Partners Topic
New Mexico – Office of U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich
Policies and programs to support solar development at the state and municipal levels.
Minnesota – Region Five Development Commission
LMI community solar financing options and program design considerations.
Kentucky – Department for Energy Development and Independence
Using NREL’s dGen model to produce state and utility-level distributed generation baselines and projections under different scenarios
Charleston County – Office of the County Administrator
Solar-ready building design, potential financing mechanisms, and government solar procurement strategies
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CELICA Workshop
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TA Evolves as Solar Markets Develop
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• STAT Blog
• Policy Basics Pages
• Webinars
Accessible, Digestible Resources
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• What is your question?
• How would you like to receive technical information from the lab?
Let’s get together!
Data and Tools
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Range of Tools (Solar as Example)
Maps/Data
Analysis
Policy Application
MapSearch
Open PV
PV Watts
System Advisor
Model
Scenario Jedi
RE Atlas
CREST
COMMON QUESTIONS
1 What are the energy efficiency measures that are likely to yield the biggest savings in my jurisdiction?
2 What are the high priority RE projects for my jurisdiction?
3 What is the sector level breakdown of energy and emissions data for my jurisdictions (or sub jurisdictions)?
4 What is the makeup of low income housing in my jurisdiction? What is the energy burden?
5 Is solar technology affordable for my jurisdiction? What’s the Savings to Investment ratio for my people?
6 What are the costs and outputs of renewable facilities under different financial structures?
7 What are the jobs and other economic development impacts of renewable energy projects in my jurisdiction?
8 What are the costs and benefits to various audiences of a single community solar project?
9 What incentive levels are necessary to improve system economics?
10 What are the market impacts of different policy scenarios?
11 Other:
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Jurisdiction Based Questions Drive Solutions
ResStock What residential energy efficiency measures are likely to yield the highest savings in my jurisdiction?
Cities-LEAP What is the sector level breakdown of energy and emission data for my jurisdiction (or sub jurisdictions to me)? What is the makeup of low income housing in my jurisdiction?
SIRCalculations
What is the savings to investment ratio for solar in my jurisdiction?
Data (Planning, M&V)
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Jurisdiction Based Questions Drive Solutions
SAM What are the costs and outputs of renewable facilities under different financial structures?
JEDI What are the jobs and other economic development impacts of renewable energy projects in my jurisdiction?
Community Solar Business Case
What are the costs and benefits to various audiences of a single community solar project?
CREST What incentives/policies are necessary to improve system economics?
dGen What are the market penetration impacts of different policy scenarios?
Tools (Program implementation, understanding tradeoffs)
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Credibility in Decision Support: Connecting to NREL’s Tools
The dGen family of models forecasts state, utility, or city-specific customer adoption of distributed generation technologies for residential, commercial, and industrial entities.
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Utilization of NREL/DOE Tools and Resources in TA
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Alternative Fuels Data Center
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Dat
a (P
lan
nin
g, M
&V
)ResStock(Eric Wilson)
What are the measures that are likely to yield highest savings in my jurisdiction?
Cities-LEAP(Megan Day)
What is the sector level breakdown of energy and emission data for my jurisdiction (or sub jurisdictions to me)? What is the makeup of low income housing in my jurisdiction?
SIR Calcs(Monisha Shah)
What is the savings to investment ratio for solar in my jurisdiction?
Too
ls
(Pro
gram
imp
lem
enta
tio
n,
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
trad
eo
ffs)
SAM(Nathan Blair)
What are the costs and outputs of renewable facilities under different financial structures?
JEDI(David Keyser)
What are the jobs and other economic development impacts of renewable energy projects in my jurisdiction?
CommunitySolar Business Case (Amy Hollander)
What are the costs and benefits to various audiences of a single community solar project?
CREST(Paul Schwabe)
What incentives/policies are necessary to improve system economics?
dGen (Pieter Gagnon)
What are the market penetration impacts of different policy scenarios?
You can reach NREL staff listed via email: [email protected]. To navigate tools, use [email protected]
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CITIES-LEAPCities Leading throughEnergy Analysis and Planning
Identified market need:
City decision makers need standardized, localized dataand analysis to make more strategic energy decisions.
Research and analysis:
Developed new, replicable methodology and estimated electricity, natural gas, andfuel consumption,vehicle miles traveled, andactual vehicle fuel types inmore than 23,400 U.S cities.
Newest additions:
PV potential, building stock characterization, top five energy consuming industries, GHGconversions for each city.
Light-Duty Alternative Fuel and Conventional Vehicles in Oakland, California
Emissions Summary for Golden, Colorado in 2013
apps1.eere.energy.gov/sled, www.energy.gov/eere/cities
City Energy Profiles
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How can we get to 100% RE?
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62490.pdf
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Resiliency, Storage, and Cost: Oh My!
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What happens when I…?
The dGen family of models forecasts state, utility, or city-specific customer adoption of distributed generation technologies for residential, commercial, and industrial entities.
Tools
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What are the energy efficiency measures that are likely to yield highest savings in my jurisdiction?
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ResStock
Census
Data
Climate
LocationsNREL supercomputer
or Amazon Cloud
Baseline
Buildings
Efficiency
Upgrades
10s–100s of thousands of
statistically representative
models
Building
Characteristics
Costs
Problem Solution
Typical, non-granular analysis of
energy efficiency potential can
lead to incorrect “all-or-
nothing” cost-effectiveness
results.
Typical Approach High-Granularity
ResStock’s highly granular
approach leads to more nuanced
results—and enables
identification of opportunity
targets within the building stock
for particular efficiency measures.
(The heatmaps above show the payback period for insulating wall cavities in
various segments of the housing stock in Washington and Oregon.)
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Actionable results for
states and cities
- 5,000 10,000 15,000
Per-HouseElectricity Savings
[kWh/yr] - 1 2 3 4
Upgrade Electric Furnace (and AC) toHigh-Eff. Heat Pump at wear out
Drill-and-Fill Wall Cavities
Ductless Heat Pump (displaces electricbaseboard)
LED Lighting
Smart Thermostat
Upgrade Electric WH to HPWH (80 gal)
Duct Sealing & Insulating
Foundation Wall Ins.(Bsmt, Crawl)
R-49 Attic Ins.
Air Sealing
Statewide Electricity Savings
[TWh/yr]
Upgrade Electric WH to HPWH
Utility bills
1.5billion dollars per year
Cost-effective
savings for
Virginia
Top 10 Upgrades
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Pennsylvania Resi Supply Curve
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What are the high priority RE projects for my jurisdiction?
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Renewable GenerationSolar PVWindBiomass, etc.
Energy StorageBatteriesThermal storageWater tanks
Conventional GenerationElectric GridFuel SupplyConventional Generators
Dispatchable TechnologiesHeating and CoolingWater Treatment
GoalsMinimize Cost
Net ZeroResiliency
EconomicsFinancial Parameters
Technology CostsIncentives
Utility CostsEnergy Charges
Demand ChargesEscalation Rate
OperationsOptimal Dispatch
REoptEnergy Planning PlatformTechno-economic Optimization
REopt Inputs and Output
Energy Conservation Measures
Technologies Technology MixTechnology Size
Project Economics CapEx, OpExNet Present Value
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Miami University of Ohio
• Evaluate low-carbon, cost effective master plans for the campus
• Technologies included: PV, GSHP, thermal and electrical storage, CHP/HRSG
• Evaluated staged implementation of the technologies to meet progressing carbon reduction goals and future load profiles
• Required modeling of existing steam plant, detailed load analysis, evaluation of multiple detailed engineering reports, and detailed modeling of PJM large customer tariff
Year Project Coal Carbon Goal
2014 GSHP Western Ph. 1 (done)
2015 East Quad SHC
2016 North Quad SHC 7000 ton max
2017 GSHP Western Ph. 2
2020 80% of 2008
2025 GSHP Western Ph. 3 No coal 70% of 2008
GSHP North Campus
New boilers, CHP
2030 50% of 2008
2040 25% of 2008
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What is the sector level breakdown of energy and emission data for my jurisdiction (or sub jurisdictions)?
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Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning
FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCHCity-Level Energy Decision Making: Data Use in Energy Planning, Implementation, and Evaluation in U.S. Cities
CITY ENERGY FUTURESAggregate, national economic and GHG impact of suites of city energy actions
FUNDING OPPORTUNITY ANNOUNCEMENTThree awardees pursuing innovative approaches to incorporatingenergy data in city decision makingrecently announced
CITY ENERGY PROFILES
Developed new, replicable methodology and generated a publicly available city energy profile for every U.S. city
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Cities-LEAP City Energy Profile Coverage
23,400+ U.S. Cities
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City Energy Profiles: Electricity, Natural Gas
Learning about
the energy
market in your
city and similar
cities can lead to
more strategic
energy decisions
toward a clean
energy future.
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City Energy Profiles: Fuel Use, VMT
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City Energy Profiles: Fuel Type, PV Potential
Light-Duty Alternative Fuel and Conventional Vehicle, Oakland, CA
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City Energy Profiles: Building Stock Characterization
http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/sled/#/.
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City Energy Profiles: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Summary
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Local Energy Action Toolbox
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What is the makeup of low income housing in my jurisdiction? What is the energy burden?
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Cities-LEAP Energy Burden Estimates – Carrboro, NC
(Preliminary, unpublished analysis. Do not circulate.)
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Cities-LEAP: Number of Housing Units by Type, Carrboro, NC
(Preliminary, unpublished analysis. Do not circulate.)
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Cities-LEAP: Percentage of Housing Units by Fuel Type, Carrboro, NC
(Preliminary, unpublished analysis. Do not circulate.)
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Cities-LEAP: Avg. Monthly Energy Expenditures by Heating Fuel Type, Carrboro, NC
(Preliminary, unpublished analysis. Do not circulate.)
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Cities-LEAP: Number of Housing Units by Housing Type, CT
(Preliminary, unpublished analysis. Do not circulate.)
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Cities-LEAP: Average Annual Energy Expenditures ($/yr), CT
(Preliminary, unpublished analysis. Do not circulate.)
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Is Solar Tech Affordable for my Jurisdiction? What is the Savings to Investment Ratio for my people?
Savings to Investment Ratio for PV Systems
What is an SIR?
Lifetime Present Value of: 1) Electricity bill savings 2) O&M costs, 3) State incentives, if any ($/kWh)
1) Upfront PV system investment 2) tax credit, if any, 3) state grant
• Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) calculates whether a PV system owner recovers its investment through electricity savings and federal and state incentives
• NREL has built an analysis tool to calculate the SIR for a residential PV system in all 50 states using the following formula:
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• The tool is designed to allow stakeholders the ability to explore the cost-effectiveness of solar in their communities
How is the Electricity Savings Calculation made?
Savings on your Electricity Bill
State Average Annual Electricity Production of Residential PV System X Average State Residential Electricity Rate)
– Annual O&M Costs
+ Annual State Incentives
Σ( )
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Default Assumptions
Category Assumptions
Net Metering Credits
Assumes customers receive full net-metering credit at the state residential average electricity prices from EIA.
System CostsDefault residential PV system price range of residential of $2/W-$4/W based on costs reported in both the NREL Benchmark Report and the GTM report for distributed PV systems.
System LifetimePV system useful life is estimated to have a range between 25 - 40 years based on research from NREL.
System O&M Costs
Default O&M costs and degradation rate from NREL technical report
State Capacity Factors
Average Residential state-level capacity factors are based on NREL internal analysis for the ReEDS model
State Residential Electricity Rates
Default electricity escalation rate based on EIA AEO 2016, National Average Residential End-Use Electricity Price increase from 2015-2040.
Discount RateA 3% social discount rate was assumed to capture the time value of the savings over the lifetime of the system.
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SIR Results of Two Cost Scenarios
Note: Uses a 30 year analysis period and a 30% federal tax credit
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Customize Your Own Assumptions
Each state can customize any of the assumptions in the grey cells on the “Summary” tab, including:• System and O&M costs,
analysis period, discount and escalation rates
• Federal and state incentives,
• State solar resource (capacity factor) and average electricity rate
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What are the costs and outputs of renewable facilities under different financial structures?
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System Advisor Model
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
These calculations are done using detailed performance models, a detailed cash flow finance model, and a library of reasonable default values for each technology and target market.
Technologies SAM can model:- Photovoltaics (Flat plate, CPV)- Solar Water Heating- Concentrating Solar Power
(Trough, Tower, Linear Fresnel, Dish Stirling)
- Geothermal- Wind (Small + Utility scale)- Biomass Power
The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free user-friendly computer program that calculates a renewable energy system’s hourly energy output over a single year, and calculates the cost of energy for a renewable energy project over the life of the project.
Weather Data
System Specs
Energy Production Cost Data
Financing Options
Utility Rates &
Incentives
+ » + + + »Annual, Monthly,
and Hourly Output, LCOE, NPV,
Payback, Revenue, Capacity Factor
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System Advisor Model (SAM)
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What are the jobs and other economic development impacts of renewable energy projects in my jurisdiction?
JEDI PV – Jobs and Economic Development
http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/download.html
PURPOSE: Estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating photovoltaic power generation at the local and state levels.
TYPE: Spreadsheet-based impact model
TAKEAWAY: Economic impacts for one, or, a portfolio of projects
CONTACT: [email protected]
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What are the costs and benefits to various audiences of a single community solar project?
Community Solar Scenario Tool
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www.nrel.gov/tech_deployment/tools_community_solar.html
• PURPOSE: Evaluate economics of a community solar project from a customer’s perspective as well as the sponsoring utility
• TYPE: Spreadsheet-based model
• TAKEAWAY: “First cut” analysis of different community solar options for utility, state and local advocates.
• CONTACT: [email protected]
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What incentives/policies are necessary to improve system economics?
Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool (CREST)
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https://financere.nrel.gov/finance/content/crest-cost-energy-models
• PURPOSE: Cash flow model to assess solar projects, design cost-based incentives, evaluate impacts of tax incentives and other support structures
• TYPE: Spreadsheet based
• TAKEAWAY: Less technical, back of the envelope LCOE estimates without engaging a detailed SAM run.
• CONTACT: [email protected]
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What are the market impacts of different policy scenarios?
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Policy and Program RE Impacts: dGen
The dGen family of models forecasts state, utility, or city-specific customer adoption of distributed generation technologies for residential, commercial, and industrial entities.
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Other!
NREL’s Focus on Solar Adoption in Low-Income Communities
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• Annual solar PV installations have risen from 79 megawatts (MW) in 2005 to 14,762 MW in 2016, representing more than a 18,000% increase. The majority of these installations was not in low income applications.
• Low-income customers make up close to one-third of the nation’s households, these customers also account for over 20 percent of residential energy use in the U.S. 2
• SIR analysis for all 50 states demonstrated cost-effectiveness in ½ of the U.S. at $3.00/watt for households without any state or local incentives.3
Why Solar in Low Income Communities?
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NREL Low- and Moderate-Income (LMI) Solar Work
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Solar Technical Assistance Team: Colorado LMI Evaluation
Summary
NREL is assisting Colorado Energy Office with an evaluation of a portfolio of low-income community solar demonstration projects (LICS Projects) which will serve to inform future policy development specific to community solar and energy burdened households. The portfolio of 10-12 LICS Projects will be developed over a two-year timeframe (from November 2015 – October 2017) and will serve to reduce household energy burden for low-income subscribers and demonstrate the viability and scalability of developing community solar projects solely for low-income households. Once complete, a minimum of 1 MW of solar power will be installed and a cumulative total of 300 low-income households will be subscribed to the demonstration projects.
Duration Partners Major Planned Outcomes
October 2016-December 2017
• Colorado Energy Office
• Lotus Engineering and Sustainability
• Grid Alternatives
1) Financial analysis of each LICS project2) Subscriber-focused cost-benefit analysis of
LICS project3) Presentation of findings at the National
Association of State Energy Officials’ (NASEO) 2017 annual conference.
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Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) Online Education
The LMI Solar Policy Basics page covers: o Implementation Issueso Design Best Practiceso Potential Financing
Mechanismso Potential Funding
Sources for Stateso Community Solaro Challenges and Next
Stepso Additional Resources
• NREL’s Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) provides information on solar policies and issues for state and local government decision-makers.
• STAT received several requests relating to LMI solar issues in 2016. • In addition to providing targeted state-level assistance, STAT developed an LMI Solar
Policy Basics page, available at http://www.nrel.gov/technical-assistance/lmi-solar.html.
Low- and Moderate-Income Solar Policy Basics Page
NREL employees volunteered with GRID Alternatives to install solar PV systems in Grand Junction, CO in 2015.
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• Get in touch!
• What else do you want to see from NREL/STAT?
• What information and resources would be helpful?
Next Steps
