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© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd
Enhancing investment decisions
Q4FY11 Result Update
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix
The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –
Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental
grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The
valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to
grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
CRISIL Fundamental Grade
Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade
Assessment
5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)
4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)
3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)
2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)
1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
Analyst Disclosure Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest
that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.
Additional Disclosure This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT).
Disclaimer: This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL
(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for
any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without
any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes
investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold
any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this
Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be
reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or
published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL EQUITIES | 1
The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd High material cost and breakdown of turbine affect margins
Fundamental Grade 3/5 (Good fundamentals)
Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside)
Industry Papers & Forest Products
Fair Value Rs 113 CMP Rs 86
May 26, 2011
The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd’s (West Coast’s) Q4FY11 revenues were higher
than CRISIL Equities’ expectations because of firm paper prices. However,
EBITDA was disappointing due to high power costs - resulting from a break
down in power turbine - and higher raw material prices. We lower our FY12
earnings estimate due to: (a) the spill over effect of the turbine break down,
(b) high raw material prices, and (c) slow progress of captive plantations;
however, we maintain our FY13 estimates. Considering West Coast’s
established market position and our stable outlook on the paper industry, we
maintain a fundamental grade of 3/5.
Q4FY11 result analysis
• West Coast’s Q4 revenues increased 101% y-o-y on the back of increased
production (new capacities added in Q1FY11), higher price realisation (due
to increased raw material prices) and better product mix.
• The company’s new capacity operated at ~94% due to robust demand
environment. The company sold 84,229 MT paper in Q4FY11, an increase
of 91% compared to 44,099 MT sold in Q4FY10. Average realisation
increased by 6% y-o-y to Rs 44.8 per kg compared to Rs 42.0 per kg in
Q4FY10 owing to a better product mix and increase in overall paper prices.
• EBITDA margin increased 48 bps y-o-y but declined 643 bps q-o-q to
17.8% in Q4FY11. It was lower than our expectations due to high raw
material costs and higher power costs (due to the turbine break down).
• Adjusted PAT was Rs 226 mn compared to a loss of Rs 11 mn in Q4FY10
mainly on account of higher deferred tax provisioning during Q4FY10. EPS
was Rs 3.6 per share compared to Rs (0.2) in Q4FY10.
Industry operating rates, realisations and EBITDA/tonne to firm up
With the rise in operating rates and firm global pulp and wastepaper prices,
CRISIL Research expects paper and paperboard prices to increase 5% and
13% in FY12 (y-o-y) and further by 2% and 3% in FY13 (y-o-y), respectively.
While we expect rising input costs could affect margins, EBITDA/tonne is likely
to increase. Accordingly, we factor in EBITDA/tonne of ~Rs 10k for FY13
compared to ~Rs 9k earned in FY11.
Valuations: Current market price has strong upside
We continue to use the price-to-earnings method and value West Coast at Rs
113. At the current market price of Rs 86, the stock merits a valuation grade
of 5/5.
KEY FORECAST
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E
Operating income 6,231 6,295 10,722 13,348 14,670
EBITDA 1,254 1,163 2,402 2,703 3,314
Adj PAT 905 549 901 891 1,338
Adj EPS-Rs 15.0 8.8 14.4 14.2 21.3
EPS growth (%) 2.8 (41.6) 64.0 (1.1) 50.3
Dividend yield 2.8 3.9 3.3 4.6 4.6
PE (x) 5.8 9.9 6.0 6.1 4.0
P/BV (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
RoCE (%) 8.2 5.2 7.7 9.9 13.8
RoE (%) 20.0 10.6 15.8 14.0 18.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 14.8 7.3 5.9 4.3
CMP: Current Market Price. #FY11 numbers based on abridged financials
Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies est imate
CFV MATRIX
KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 5349
NSE WSTCSTPAPR
Face Value (Rs per share) 2.0
Shares outstanding (mn) 62.7
Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 5,412/119
Enterprise value (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 17,429/384
52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 112/63
Beta 0.93
Free float (%) 48.1%
Avg daily volumes (30-days) 49,522
Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 4.5
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET
Returns
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
West Coast -9% 11% -3% 42%
NIFTY -9% 1% -8% 10%
ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]
Suhel Kapur [email protected]
Suresh Guruprasad [email protected]
Client servicing desk
+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]
1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
4
5
Valuation Grade
Fundam
enta
l G
rade
Poor Fundamentals
ExcellentFundamentals
Str
ong
Dow
nsid
e
Str
ong
Upsi
de
51.8% 51.8% 51.8% 51.9%
0.1% 0.1% 0.1%6.2% 6.7% 7.0% 7.1%
42.0% 41.4% 41.1% 40.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
Promoter FII DII Others
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL EQUITIES | 2
The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd
Q4FY11 Result Summary West Coast (Rs mn) Q4FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY10 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) FY11 FY10 y-o-y (%)
Operating income 3,441 2,958 1,714 16.3 100.8 10,686 6,289 69.9
Raw materials cost 1,471 1,055 618 39.4 138.0 3,707 2,288 62.0
Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 42.7% 35.7% 36.1% 708bps 667 bps 34.7% 36.4% -169bps
Employees cost 145 162 122 (10.9) 18.3 617 552 11.7
Other expenses 1,212 1,023 676 18.5 79.3 3,996 2,289 74.6
EBITDA 614 718 298 (14.5) 106.4 2,366 1,160 103.9
EBITDA margin 17.8% 24.3% 17.4% -643 bps 48 bps 22.1% 18.5% 369bps
Depreciation 258 254 93 1.5 176.0 961 238 304.3
EBIT 356 464 204 (23.2) 74.6 1,405 923 52.3
Interest and finance charges 129 143 41 (9.7) 245.3 510 111 357.6
Operating PBT 227 321 163 (29.2) 97.4 895 811 10.4
Other Income 12 2 1 684.8 96.7 36 4 890.5
Extraordinary Income/(expense) - - - n.m. n.m. - - n.m.
PBT 240 323 164 (25.7) 46.6 931 815 14.3
Tax 14 38 175 n.m. (91.9) 30 268 (88.8)
PAT 226 285 (11) (20.8) n.m. 901 547 64.7
Adj PAT 226 285 (11) (20.8) n.m. 901 547 64.7
Adj PAT margin 6.6% 9.6% -0.7% -308 bps 722 bps 8.4% 8.7% -27bps
No of equity shares (Mn) 62.8 62.8 62.8 - - 62.8 62.8 -
Adj EPS (Rs) 3.6 4.5 (0.2) (20.8) n.m. 14.4 8.7 64.7
Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies
For the full year, West Coast’s sales volume increased 53% to ~267,994 MT,
thanks to the capacity additions. FY11 sales revenue and PAT were Rs 10,686
mn and Rs 901 mn, - up ~41% and ~39% - respectively, over FY10.
New capacity boosts production Paper realisations continue to be firm
Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies
43 44 44 44 44 43 42 40
7 25 33
32
18%
54%
69%
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
('000 MT)
Production from Old Facility
Production from New Facility
Increase in total production (y-o-y) (RHS)
33.0
33.331.2
42.1
36.8
38.239.2
44.8
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
(Rs/Kg)
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL EQUITIES | 3
The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd
Higher material and power costs affect margins Lower EBITDA results in lower PAT margins
Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies
Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation
-indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Equ ities Source: NSE, CRISIL Equ ities
1,475
1,705
1,394
1,714
1,891
2,396
2,958
3,441
20.8% 19.8%
15.6%17.4%
21.1%
26.5% 24.3%
17.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
(Rs mn)
Revenue EBITDA margin(RHS)
206 232 121
-12
150 240 285 226
13.9% 13.6%
8.7%
-0.7%
7.9%
10.0%9.6%
6.6%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
(Rs mn)
PAT PAT margin(RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
West Coast NIFTY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
30-Jul-10
13-Aug-10
27-Aug-10
10-Sep-10
24-Sep-10
08-Oct-10
22-Oct-10
05-Nov-10
19-Nov-10
03-Dec-10
17-Dec-10
31-Dec-10
14-Jan-11
28-Jan-11
11-Feb-11
25-Feb-11
11-Mar-11
25-Mar-11
08-Apr-11
22-Apr-11
06-May-11
20-May-11
('000)(Rs)
Total Traded Quantity CRISIL Fair Value Share Price
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL EQUITIES | 4
The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd
EARNINGS ESTIMATES REVISED
With the rise in operating rates and firm global pulp and wastepaper prices,
CRISIL Research expects domestic paper prices to exceed our earlier estimates.
Considering our firm outlook on paper prices, we expect West Coast’s average
realisation to be ~Rs 43 per kg and ~Rs 44 per kg in FY12 and FY13,
respectively, higher than our earlier estimates of ~Rs 37 per kg and ~Rs 39 per
kg. However, because of the spill over effect due to the power turbine break
down, high raw materials cost and the captive plantation program going slower
than expected, we have lowered our earnings estimate for FY12; however, we
are maintaining that for FY13.
FY12E FY13E
Particulars Unit Old New %change Old New %change
Operating income (Rs mn) 11,731 13,348 14% 12,905 14,670 14%
EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,897 2,703 -7% 3,315 3,314 0%
EBITDA margin % 24.7 20.3 -445bps 25.7 22.6 -310bps
Adj PAT (Rs mn) 1,031 891 -14% 1,352 1,338 -1%
Adj PAT margin % 8.8 6.7 -212bps 10.5 9.1 -135bps
EPS Rs 16.4 14.2 -14% 21.6 21.3 -1%
Source: CRISIL Equ it ies estimate
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL EQUITIES | 5
The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd
VALUATION We value West Coast based on the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) method. We
continue to assign a PER of 5x to our FY13 EPS of ~Rs 22 to arrive at a fair
value of Rs 108 per share. Also, West Coast holds a 36.3% stake in Rama
Newsprint. Based on Rama Newsprint’s current market price of Rs 15 and a
holding company discount of 25%, it translates to Rs 5 per West Coast’s
outstanding share. Therefore, our fair value estimate for West Coast is Rs 113
per share.
One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
Source: NSE, CRISIL Equ ities Source: NSE, CRISIL Equ ities
P/E – premium/discount to NIFTY P/E movement
Source: NSE, CRISIL Equ ities Source: NSE, CRISIL Equ ities
CRISIL IER reports released on The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd
Date Nature of report
Fundamental
grade Fair value
Valuation
grade
CMP
(on the date of report)
30-July-10 Initiating coverage* 3/5 Rs 97 3/5 Rs 90
22-Nov-10 Q2FY11 result update 3/5 Rs 107 4/5 Rs 90
24-Feb-11 Q3FY11 result update 3/5 Rs 113 5/5 Rs 77
26-May-11 Q4FY11 result update 3/5 Rs 113 5/5 Rs 86
* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in
CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
(Rs)
West Coast 3x 5x 7x
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
(Rs mn)
EV 5x 7x 9x
-85%
-80%
-75%
-70%
-65%
-60%
-55%
-50%
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
(x)
1yr Fwd PE Median PE
-1 std dev
+1 std dev
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL EQUITIES | 6
The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd
FINANCIALS
#FY11 numbers based on the abridged financials
Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies est imate
Income statement Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E
Operating income 6,231 6,295 10,722 13,348 14,670 Liabilities
EBITDA 1,254 1,163 2,402 2,703 3,314 Equity share capital 121 125 125 125 125
EBITDA margin 20.1% 18.5% 22.4% 20.3% 22.6% Reserves 4,907 5,238 5,929 6,526 7,571
Depreciation 210 238 961 900 914 Minorities - - - - -
EBIT 1,043 926 1,441 1,804 2,400 Net worth 5,028 5,363 6,055 6,652 7,697
Interest 79 122 510 505 437 Convertible debt - - - - -
Operating PBT 964 804 931 1,299 1,963 Other debt 12,387 12,997 12,775 11,075 9,475
Other income 41 13 - 28 30 Total debt 12,387 12,997 12,775 11,075 9,475
Exceptional inc/(exp) 0 (2) - - - Deferred tax liability (net) 400 665 686 883 1,179
PBT 1,005 815 931 1,327 1,994 Total liabilities 17,814 19,025 19,515 18,609 18,350
Tax provision 99 268 30 436 655 Assets
Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 2,068 8,056 15,284 14,684 14,070
PAT (reported) 905 547 901 891 1,338 Capital WIP 11,200 7,469 - - -
Less: Exceptionals 0 (2) - - - Total fixed assets 13,269 15,525 15,284 14,684 14,070
Adjusted PAT 905 549 901 891 1,338 Investments 460 467 467 467 467
Current assets
Ratios Inventory 1,437 1,791 2,010 2,560 2,813
FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 434 342 732 726 798
Growth Loans and advances 1,433 1,833 2,275 2,475 2,675
Operating income (%) 5.6 1.0 70.3 24.5 9.9 Cash & bank balance 2,844 1,166 758 526 545
EBITDA (%) 8.8 (7.2) 106.5 12.6 22.6 Marketable securities - - - - -
Adj PAT (%) 8.2 (39.3) 64.0 (1.1) 50.3 Total current assets 6,148 5,132 5,774 6,287 6,831
Adj EPS (%) 2.8 (41.6) 64.0 (1.1) 50.3 Total current liabilities 2,062 2,099 2,010 2,829 3,018
Net current assets 4,085 3,033 3,764 3,458 3,813
Profitability Intangibles/misc. expenditure - - - - -
EBITDA margin (%) 20.1 18.5 22.4 20.3 22.6 Total assets 17,814 19,025 19,515 18,609 18,350
Adj PAT Margin (%) 14.5 8.7 8.4 6.7 9.1
RoE (%) 20.0 10.6 15.8 14.0 18.7 Cash flow
RoCE (%) 8.2 5.2 7.7 9.9 13.8 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E
RoIC (%) 10.3 4.4 8.2 8.3 11.0 Pre-tax profit 1,004 817 931 1,327 1,994
Total tax paid (115) (3) (9) (239) (359)
Valuations Depreciation 210 238 961 900 914
Price-earnings (x) 5.8 9.9 6.0 6.1 4.0 Working capital changes (470) (626) (1,139) 74 (336)
Price-book (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Net cash from operations 630 426 744 2,062 2,212
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 14.8 7.3 5.9 4.3 Cash from investments
EV/Sales (x) 2.4 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 Capital expenditure (8,167) (2,494) (720) (300) (300)
Dividend payout ratio (%) 16.3 38.7 20.1 28.2 18.8 Investments and others 90 (7) - - -
Dividend yield (%) 2.8 3.9 3.3 4.6 4.6 Net cash from investments (8,077) (2,501) (720) (300) (300)
Cash from financing
B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 135 115 - - -
Inventory days 108 131 88 90 93 Debt raised/(repaid) 8,325 611 (223) (1,700) (1,600)
Creditors days 134 130 78 78 78 Dividend (incl. tax) (147) (211) (209) (294) (294)
Debtor days 24 19 25 19 19 Others (incl extraordinaries) 115 (117) - - -
Working capital days 59 90 83 81 77 Net cash from financing 8,428 397 (432) (1,994) (1,894)
Gross asset turnover (x) 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 Change in cash position 981 (1,678) (408) (232) 19
Net asset turnover (x) 2.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 C losing cash 2,844 1,166 758 526 545
Sales/operating assets (x) 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0
Current ratio (x) 3.0 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.3 Quarterly financials
Debt-equity (x) 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.2 (Rs mn) Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11
Net debt/equity (x) 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.2 Net sales 1,714 1,891 2,396 2,958 3,441
Interest coverage 13.1 7.6 2.8 3.6 5.5 Change (q-o-q) 23% 10% 27% 23% 16%
EBITDA 298 399 635 718 614
Per share Change (q-o-q) 36% 34% 59% 13% -14%
FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 17.4% 21.1% 26.5% 24.3% 17.8%
Adj EPS (Rs) 15.0 8.8 14.4 14.2 21.3 PAT (11) 150 240 285 226
CEPS 18.5 12.5 29.7 28.5 35.9 Adj PAT (11) 150 240 285 226
Book value 83.3 85.5 96.5 106.0 122.7 Change (q-o-q) -110% n.m. 60% 19% -21%
Dividend (Rs) 2.4 3.4 2.9 4.0 4.0 Adj PAT margin -0.7% 7.9% 10.0% 9.6% 6.6%
Actual o/s shares (mn) 60.4 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 Adj EPS (0.2) 2.4 3.8 4.5 3.6
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
CRISIL Independent Equity Research Team
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