NSF Division of Astronomical Sciences (AST) Report

November 17, 2014

Jim Ulvestad, Division Director, MPS/AST

Outline

Why are you here? Highlights, NSF and AST Budgets Progress on Previous AAAC Recommendations Decadal Survey Status Portfolio Review Status Astronomy and Astrophysics Research Grants (AAG)

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Why are you here? NSF Authorization Act of 2002, as amended by DOE High-

End Computing Revitalization Act of 2004 Duties:

“assess, and make recommendations regarding, the coordination of astronomy and astrophysics programs of the [NSF, NASA, and DOE]”

“assess, and make recommendations regarding, the status of the activities of [NSF, NASA, and DOE] as they relate to the recommendations contained in the [2001 NRC decadal survey], and the recommendations contained in subsequent [NRC] reports of a similar nature”

“not later than March 15 of each year, transmit a report to [NSF, NASA, DOE, and Congress] on the Advisory Committee’s findings and recommendations”

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Highlights,NSF and AST Budgets

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ALMA construction nearly completed HL Tau:

• Astonishing detail in planet-forming disk ~235 AU in diameter around a young Sun-like star 450 ly away.

• Planet formation underway at <1 Myr

• Rings may have been created by planet-like bodies and/or resonances.

• λ=1.3 mm, 25-30 antennas, resolution = 35 mas, ~5 AU.

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Credit: ALMA (NRAO/ESO/NAOJ); C. Brogan, B. Saxton (NRAO/AUI/NSF)

Massive Black Hole in M60-UCD1

Ultra-Compact Dwarf Galaxy M60-UCD1 observed with Gemini-N AO system, imaged with HST

Spectroscopy shows clear rotation in inner arc-second and high velocity dispersion in inner 0.1 arc-sec

Interpreted as black hole of 20 x 106 MSun in galaxy of total mass only 140 x 106 MSun

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Seth et al., 2014, Nature, 513, 398

Credit: University of Utah/Nature

Pleiades Distance Hipparcos “accepted”

distance to Pleiades is 120.2 +/- 1.5 pc closer than previously accepted distances that were >10% larger

VLBI parallax measurements of 5 stars in Pleiades give distance of 136.2 +/- 1.2 pc, consistent with pre-Hipparcos results

Implications for astrophysical models of Pleiades-age stars

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Melis et al. 2014, Science 345, 1029

Credit: NOAO/AURA/NSF

PLR/AAGS - Pioneering Astrophysical Research

South Pole Telescope

Researchers operating the South Pole 10m Telescope (SPT) in Antarctica used recent data from a 100 degree-squared patch of the sky to detect for the first time tiny fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) - known as the B-mode polarization - that were caused by "gravitational lensing" - the bending of the CMB photon trajectories through the gravitational tug of matter as they travel to Earth through massive galaxy clusters. Also reported by POLARBEAR: ApJ, 794, 171.

Vol. 342, 947, 2013

NSF-funded IceCube Neutrino Observatory at South Pole reported highest energy neutrinos from outside the Solar System

A PeV-energy electron neutrino event superimposed over UW-Madison lakefront

Up to date, over 40 neutrinos with energies above 30 trillion electron volts (TeV) have been spotted. IceCube researchers confirmed that astrophysical neutrinos (green in the figure) remain the dominant component in the Southern sky.

Highlights

ALMA construction completed except for punchlist items Spectacular science results already appearing

Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) renamed, construction well on its way

Construction award made for Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)

Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP) concluded its first round, with new awards

Completed reorganization of grant discipline areas to group Planetary and Exoplanetary Astronomy

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Major Construction Projects

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ALMA

LSST DKIST

Not-So “High”lights

AST Division budget remains stagnant President’s Budget Request of $236 million for

FY 2015, compared to $246 million appropriated in FY 2010

Astronomy and Astrophysics Research Grants (AAG) budget went from $49.4 million in FY 2010 to $43.7 million in FY 2014, with funding rate falling from 22% to 16%

Ended University Radio Observatories and Telescope Systems Instrumentation Program as standalone activities, folded into MSIP

“Open Access” time headed for reductions in both optical and radio regimes

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Issues to Watch

Merit Review oversight by Congress America Competes reauthorization Outcome of FY 2015 appropriations More sequestration in the future?

Facility divestment and increasing activities in Chile

Inspector General concerns about NSF construction projects

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Progress on Previous AAAC

Recommendations

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AAAC 2014 Recommendations to NSF Use newly drafted “Principles for Access to Large Astrophysics

Projects and Facilities” in negotiating future agreements Being used in discussions for DESI, exoplanet programs

Should budget situation improve, make more aggressive progress on decadal survey priorities Awaiting improvement

Pursue divestments in most expedient possible manner to enable decadal survey progress Have started engineering feasibility and baseline

environmental reviews for several telescopes/facilities Where possible, leverage divested facilities for community access

Many ongoing discussions, most in progress AAAC and agencies work together to clarify and quantify

questions related to individual investigator grants and mid-scale programs Ongoing, see separate agenda item

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NRC/CAA OIR System Study (AAAC 2013)

“A Strategy to Optimize the U.S. Optical and Infrared System in the Era of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)”

Committee chaired by Debra Elmegreen, Vassar College Three meetings July 31/August 1; October 12-13;

December 2-3 Community input received and under discussion October meeting had presentations from observatory

directors, GMT, TMT, adaptive optics experts, ESO, etc. NSF has noted importance of recommendations in areas

of instrumentation and data management, plus the people/training needs to support these areas

Report expected in Spring 2015 11/17/2014 16 AAAC-NSF-AST

Decadal Survey Status

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Decadal Survey (NWNH) Status Funding circumstances are substantially below those

assumed in NWNH

LSST construction approval in MREFC line was secured, with award made on August 1, 2014 (survey begins 2022)

Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP) proposals evaluated, and first awards have been made

NSF and community participating in TMT Board, Science Advisory Committee, via planning award

Only CTA and CCAT opportunities – MSIP “Small” recommendations: TCAN (Theoretical and

Computational Astrophysics Network) started with NASA, no funds available for other recommended increases

CAA O/IR System Study under way Portfolio review carried out in 2011-2012

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MSIP Awards 38 pre-proposals, requesting $398 million, 12 full

proposals invited Two full awards in FY 2014

Zwicky Transient Facility – Kulkarni, Caltech, $9.0 million Advanced ACTPol – Staggs, Princeton, $10.0 million

One development award in FY 2014 HERA: Illuminating Our Early Universe – Parsons, Berkeley, $2.1

million

ACTPOL and HERA are within the eight notable areas called out by NWNH, while ZTF is responsive to one of the NWNH “Science Frontier Discovery Areas”

Projected FY 2015 Awards Expect one full award and two partial/co-funded awards to be

made in FY 2015

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MSIP Moving Forward MSIP subsumed Telescope Systems Instrumentation

Program (TSIP) and University Radio Observatories (URO) as a component of MSIP program, which also has open access to data as a goal

FY 2013 MSIP solicitation was for FY 2014/15 funds Total AST MSIP budget started at ~$14 million/yr, hence

with ~$27 million available through first solicitation Also attracted several million dollars in co-funding and made

small out-year commitments, for total of ~$35 million

Expect similar FY 2015 solicitation for FY 2016/17 funds Discussing possible modifications regarding the funding levels,

instrumentation details, and open-access (telescopes and data) category

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Portfolio Review Status

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AST Portfolio Scenarios

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AST budget assumption: FY15=Request, 1%/yr growth thereafter

With Max. Divestment

FY19 FY17 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

AST $M

Fiscal Year

Individual Investigator+ Mid-scale DKIST

ALMA

Existing Facilities Assumes 2.5% inflation/yr for existing facilities

Facility Budget Reductions, FY10-FY13

LSST enters here

FY10 FY13 FY16 FY19

Assuming No Divestment

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Portfolio Review Status AST issued Dear Colleague Letter NSF 14-022 on

December 20, 2013 Lays out future steps for all telescopes that were either

recommended for divestment in the near term or for future consideration

NSF has begun engineering/environmental feasibility studies for a number of telescopes, while consideration of some others awaits specific external milestones

Expect next steps of environmental review to begin in FY 2015, as appropriate

Achieved schedule will be slower than hoped

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Facility Futures-I

Kitt Peak 2.1m open availability ended in FY 2014 Proposals to take over 2.1m under evaluation

Mayall 4m leaves NOAO base budget after FY 2015 Continued operation for special projects funded outside

NOAO base Expect some community access continuing during 2016-

2018 transition to DOE DESI project

NOAO share in WIYN 3.5m telescope Joint NASA/NSF exoplanet program is under development Includes development of Extreme Precision Doppler

Spectrograph under NASA solicitation

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Facility Futures-2 GBT and VLBA partitioned from NRAO management

competition Engineering and environmental baseline review taking

place for both Similar to NOAO Kitt Peak, these are outside NRAO base

budget in competition, with any operations to be funded separately

Partnerships under development

DKIST will supplant open-access NSO observatories Partnership discussions for GONG, Sac Peak, McMath-

Pierce

Arecibo undergoing baseline review similar to GBT Will lead to decision about status post-2016

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Astronomy and Astrophysics

Research Grants (AAG)

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AAG Global Budget Breakdown

Indirect Costs

Other Direct

Fringe

Personnel

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13Indirect Costs Other Direct Participant Support Travel and Equipment Fringe Personnel

Travel and Equipment

Approximately 15% Senior Personnel, 10% Postdocs, 15% Students

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18 12 13 19 41 33 36 43 41 38 32 40 31 48 64 44 60 66 57 58 52 54 60 90

136 80 89 126 134 108 126 96

112 104 119 113 104 100 112 105

115 113

135 148 160 200

227 274 239 143

62 59

49 58 50 52

73 82

58 48 41

76 107 72 74 91 122

124 91 96

91

107

102 118

145

78 88 78

87 76 72 96

119 134 128

131 124

122 138 136 170

219

223 259 242 243

270

280 311

308

1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4

PLA SAAGAL EXC

# Proposals in AAG 732

238

1990 2014

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50.4 48.0

45.1

29.5

45.1

29.3 24.9

31.2 27.6 26.7

31.2 34.3

38.1 36.8

28.8 28.5 24.4 23.9

20.7

36.3

22.4 19.9

14.8 15.4 16.7

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Proposal Success Rate, %

16.2 17.0 18.2 17.1 20.2 18.6 17.5 19.3 19.7 18.8 20.9 22.7 29.4 32.4 30.7 34.0

38.9 41.5 42.1

79.6

49.4 48.1 44.5 42.4 43.7

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

AAG Budget, $M

1

10

100

1000

1 2 3 4 5

Number of submissions per PI in FY14

Multiple Submissions in FY14

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AAG Now and Future FY14 funding rate was 16%

Higher than expected rate of ~13%, because co-funding contributions from elsewhere enabled AST to release the entire year-end reserve to AAG

Proposers reduced budgets where possible without impacting scope

Changes needed to achieve best review, reduce workload Under consideration: reducing frequency of AAG calls,

restricting numbers of proposals per investigator/institution

Strongly encouraging investigators to restrict themselves to 1 AAG proposal in FY 2015

AST needs to develop strategy for what to do when funding rates hit 12%, 10%, 8%

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Questions/Discussion

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