nsf_talk.ppt
TRANSCRIPT
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Telepresence: Telepresence: An Umbrella Research TopicAn Umbrella Research Topic
Jim GrayMicrosoft [email protected]://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/
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NSF: Nerve Center of ScienceNSF: Nerve Center of ScienceIf it’s not broke, don’t fix it.If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.But….But….
US Science is the engine of progressBUT…..
Best and brightest are spending increasing
time fundraising Seems excessive to me. Venture capital community is
richer and more generous
than NSF
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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see & hear? The architecture revolution:
processing moves to transducers
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Microsoft Research -- 1991Microsoft Research -- 1991 Founded in 1991 Goal:
pursue strategic technologies for Microsoft
Original research groups:– Natural Language Processing– Operating Systems– Programming Languages
Overall size < 20 at the end of 1992
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Microsoft Research -- 1998Microsoft Research -- 1998 280 Researchers in 25 areas
– Operating systems to Statistical Physics Research lab locations:
– Redmond, Cambridge, San Francisco Internationally recognized research teams
– Hundreds of publications, presentations– Leadership roles in professional societies,
journals, conferences
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MS Research AreasMS Research Areas Operating systems, languages, compilers,
virtual machines, networking, wireless computing, fault-tolerance, large scale servers, security
Natural language, speech, vision, graphics, decision theory, information retrieval, UI, collaboration, statistics, signal processing
Cryptography, statistical physics and discrete mathematics
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Growing FastGrowing Fast
Grew 4x from ‘94 to ‘97 Decided in ‘97 to grow by a 3x in 3 years
– 200 in FY97 => 600 in FY00, primarily in Redmond
Major impact on MS products– Virtually all MS products shipped today use
technology from MS Research Critical role in MS growth
– Pioneering research in software that allows computers to see, hear, speak and understand
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Microsoft Research Microsoft Research PhilosophyPhilosophy
University organizational model– Flat structure, critical mass groups
Open research environment– Aggressive publication of research results
in literature and on world wide web
– Frequent visitors, daily seminars
– Over 70 visiting professors and interns in 1997
– Over 110 visiting researchers in 1998
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Some Key Senior ResearchersSome Key Senior Researchers Systems
– Rick Rashid, Butler Lampson, Gordon Bell
– Anoop Gupta, Roger Needham, Chuck Thacker Databases & Data Mining
– David Lomet, Jim Gray, Usama Fayyad Graphics
– Jim Kajiya, Jim Blinn, Alvy Ray Smith, Michael Cohen Speech & Language
– Karen Jensen, George Heidorn, X.D. Huang, Alex Acero, Hsiao-Wuen Hon, Scott Meredith
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Some Key Some Key Senior ResearchersSenior Researchers
UI Design, Intelligent Systems, IR
– George Robertson, Linda Stone, Susan Dumais, David Heckerman, Eric Horvitz, Jack Breese
Computer Vision & Signal Processing
– Steve Shafer, Rick Szeliski, P. Anandan, Rico Malvar Cryptography & Theory
– Yacov Yacobi, Jennifer Chayes, Christian Borg, Michael Freedman
Languages & Compilers
– Daniel Weise, Chris Fraser, Amitabh Srivastava, Luca Cardelli, David Hanson, Charles Simonyi, Todd Proebsting
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Microsoft ResearchMicrosoft Research 1997 BusinessWeek Poll of Academia:
– Voted #7 lab (overall) in Computer Science
– Voted #3 industrial research lab (after Bell Labs and IBM Research)
– Voted #2 most desirable lab to work (after Stanford)
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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see & hear? The architecture revolution:
processing moves to transducers
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Gordon Bell on Gordon Bell on Tele PresentationsTele Presentations
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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Motivation:Motivation:TelepresentationsTelepresentations
• Presenter and/or audience telepresent
NOT: meeting or collaboration settings
Forget the nasty social issues!
Mostly one-way
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TelepresentationTelepresentationElementsElements Slides Audio Video Script,
text comments, hyperlinks,etc.
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Telepresentations:Telepresentations:The EssentialsThe Essentials
Slide and audio a must Add some video
(low quality) to make us feel good
Storage and transmission costs low
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Telepresentations:Telepresentations:The Killer AppThe Killer App
Increased attendance & lower travel costs
Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real
space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97
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Today’sToday’sExperimentExperiment
Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? Do you wish you could have seen this
– At home?– At another time?
How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?
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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see &
hear? The architecture revolution:
processing moves to transducers
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Changing role of computationChanging role of computation Past: Computers for:
– computing (Cray)– business data processing (IBM)– “document” creation (PC)
Future: Computers for: – understanding & learning– communicating– consuming & entertaining
Requires new User Interface to machines
FlowsFlows
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Making “Flows” a RealityMaking “Flows” a Reality Computer Graphics
– Creating realistic looking environments, people
Computer Vision– Analyzing posture, gaze, gestures
Speech input/output Natural Language
– Analysis, IR Implicit requests for information
Building life-like human Building life-like human characterscharacters
Recognizing gesturesRecognizing gestures
Live videoLive videoArea of Area of motionmotion H flowH flow V flowV flow
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Generating life-like speech Generating life-like speech from textual datafrom textual data Data-driven stochastic speech
– Natural sounding– Rapid, automatic customizability
Examples– Synthetic voice w/ transplanted speech
contours
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AT&T Voder, 1962, by Homer Dudley– Daisy (Inspiration for HAL’s voice in 2001)
Microsoft Research Whistler, 1997– Scarborough Fair
Artificial singingArtificial singing
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Analyzing languageAnalyzing language Language recognition shipped in Word 97 General purpose text-critiquing,
summarization, Japanese word-breaking
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Inside The Office Inside The Office Grammar CheckerGrammar Checker
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Understanding language: Understanding language: MindNetMindNet
A huge language knowledge base
Automatically created from dictionaries
Words (nodes) linked by relationships
Millions of links Recently added
(Encarta) encyclopedia knowledge
Is_amouthLocn_of
MindNet -- “Going to the birds”MindNet -- “Going to the birds”
face
peck limbgoose
creaturemake
Is_a
Typ_obj sound
Typ_subj
preen
Is_a
Part feather
Not_is_a plant
Is_agaggle Is_a
Is_a
PartPart_of
catch
Typ_subj_ofTyp_obj
claw
wing
Is_a
turtle
beak
Is_a
Is_a
strike
Means
hawk
Typ_subj
opening
Is_a
chatter
Means
Typ_subjTyp_obj
Is_a
Is_a
clean
smooth
billIs_a
duck
Is_a
Typ_0bj_of keep
animal
quack
Is_a
CausePurpose
bird
meat
egg
poultry
Is_a
supplyPurpose Typ_obj
Quesp
hen
chicken
Is_a
Is_a
leg
arm
Is_a
Is_a
Is_a
Typ_subj_of
fly
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Changing balance between Changing balance between user & software systemsuser & software systems
Yesterday:– Applications were single programs running in
isolation– Users used to (more or less) understand systems
that they used Today:
– Componentized applications operate in concert – Sophisticated users understand only small
percentage of systems they use
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Tomorrow’s Systems and Tomorrow’s Systems and ApplicationsApplications Users will not be able to predict
– where computations will be performed, – when they will be performed or – by what software components
Gap between system capabilities and user understanding will grow to the point that the only way user will be able to use system is through assisting agents
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Examples of user agents & Examples of user agents & implicit actionsimplicit actions Lumiere (Office 97)
– Monitoring user and program events to provide user help and assistance
Implicit queries– Inferring information needs from browsing
Lookout/SpamKiller– Monitoring mail activity to auto-categorize it
User ModelingUser Modeling Models of a user’s informational goals
– User’s query (when available…)– User’s background– Acute and long-term search activity– Acute actions with objects and documents– Program data structures
Explicit and implicit information access and display
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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see &
hear? The architecture revolution:
processing moves to transducers
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Some Tera-Byte DatabasesSome Tera-Byte Databases Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
The Web: 1 TB of HTML TerraServer 1 TB of images Several other 1 TB (file) servers Hotmail: 7 TB of email Sloan Digital Sky Survey:
40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week)
– 15 PB by 2007 Federal Clearing house: images of checks
– 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history) Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program
– 10 Exabytes (???!!)
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Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
A novel
A letter
Library of Congress (text)
All Disks
All Tapes
A Movie
LoC (image)
Info CaptureInfo Capture You can record
everything you see
or hear or read. What would you do
with it? How would you
organize & analyze it?
Video 8 PB per lifetime (10GBph)Audio 30 TB (10KBps) Read or write: 8 GB (words)
See: http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html
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Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
A novel A letter
Library of Library of Congress Congress (text)(text)
All Disks
All Tapes
A Movie
LoC (image)
All Photos
LoC (sound + cinima)
All Information!
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Michael Lesk’s PointsMichael Lesk’s Points www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.htmlwww.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html
Soon everything can be recorded and kept
Most data will never be seen by humans
Precious Resource: Human attention Auto-SummarizationAuto-Search
will be a key enabling technology.
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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see &
hear? The architecture revolution:
processing moves to transducers
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Put Everything Put Everything in Future (Disk) Controllersin Future (Disk) Controllers(it’s not “if”, it’s “when?”)(it’s not “if”, it’s “when?”)
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements::
Dave PattersonDave Patterson explained this to me a year ago explained this to me a year ago
Kim KeetonKim Keeton
Erik RiedelErik Riedel
Catharine Van IngenCatharine Van Ingen
Helped me sharpen these arguments
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Remember Your RootsRemember Your Roots
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Technology Drivers: DisksTechnology Drivers: Disks Disks on track 100x in 10 years
2 TB 3.5” drive Shrink to 1” is 200GB Disk replaces tape?
Disk is super computer!
Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
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Data GravityData Gravity Processing Moves to TransducersProcessing Moves to Transducers
Move Processing to data sources Move to where the power (and sheet metal) is Processor in
– Modem– Display– Microphones (speech recognition)
& cameras (vision)– Storage: Data storage and analysis
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It’s Already True of PrintersIt’s Already True of PrintersPeripheral = CyberBrickPeripheral = CyberBrick You buy a printer You get a
– several network interfaces– A Postscript engine
cpu, memory, software, a spooler (soon)
– and… a print engine.
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Tera Byte Backplane
TODAY– Disk controller is 10 mips risc engine
with 2MB DRAM– NIC is similar power
SOON– Will become 100 mips systems
with 100 MB DRAM. They are nodes in a federation
(can run Oracle on NT in disk controller). Advantages
– Uniform programming model– Great tools– Security– economics (CyberBricks)– Move computation to data (minimize traffic)
All Device Controllers will be Cray 1’sAll Device Controllers will be Cray 1’s
CentralProcessor &
Memory
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Basic Argument for x-DisksBasic Argument for x-Disks Future disk controller is a super-computer.
– 1 bips processor– 128 MB dram– 100 GB disk plus one arm
Connects to SAN via high-level protocols– RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,…. – Commands are RPCs– Management, security,….– Services file/web/db/… requests– Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev
environment Apps in disk saves data movement
– need programming environment in controller
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The Slippery SlopeThe Slippery Slope
If you add function to server Then you
add more function to server Function gravitates to
data.
Nothing = Sector Server
Everything = App Server
Something =
Fixed App Server
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Why Not a Sector Server?Why Not a Sector Server?(let’s get physical!)(let’s get physical!)
Good idea, that’s what we have today. But
– cache added for performance– Sector remap added for fault tolerance– error reporting and diagnostics added– SCSI commends (reserve,.. are growing)– Sharing problematic (space mgmt, security,…)
Slipping down the slope to a 2-D block server
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Why Not a 1-D Block Server?Why Not a 1-D Block Server?Put A LITTLE on the Disk ServerPut A LITTLE on the Disk Server
Tried and true design– HSC - VAX cluster– EMC– IBM Sysplex (3980?)
But look inside– Has a cache – Has space management– Has error reporting & management– Has RAID 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 50,…– Has locking– Has remote replication– Has an OS– Security is problematic– Low-level interface moves too many bytes
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Why Not a 2-D Block Server?Why Not a 2-D Block Server?Put A LITTLE on the Disk ServerPut A LITTLE on the Disk Server Tried and true design
– Cedar -> NFS– file server, cache, space,..– Open file is many fewer msgs
Grows to have– Directories + Naming– Authentication + access control– RAID 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 50,…– Locking– Backup/restore/admin– Cooperative caching with client
File Servers are a BIG hit: NetWare™– SNAP! is my favorite today
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Why Not a File Server?Why Not a File Server?Put a Little on the Disk ServerPut a Little on the Disk Server Tried and true design
– Auspex, NetApp, ...– Netware
Yes, but look at NetWare– File interface gives you app invocation interface– Became an app server
Mail, DB, Web,….
– Netware had a primitive OS Hard to program, so optimized wrong thing
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Why Not Everything?Why Not Everything?
AllowAllow Everything on Disk Server Everything on Disk Server(thin client’s)(thin client’s)
Tried and true design– Mainframes, Minis, ...– Web servers,…– Encapsulates data– Minimizes data moves– Scaleable
It is where everyone ends up. All the arguments against are short-term.
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The Slippery SlopeThe Slippery Slope
If you add function to server Then you
add more function to server Function gravitates to
data.
Nothing = Sector Server
Everything = App Server
Something =
Fixed App Server
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Disk = NodeDisk = Node has magnetic storage (100 GB?) has processor & DRAM has SAN attachment has execution
environment
OS KernelSAN driver Disk driver
File System RPC, ...Services DBMS
Applications
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Technology Drivers:Technology Drivers: System on a ChipSystem on a Chip
Integrate Processing with memory on one chip– chip is 75% memory now– 1MB cache >> 1960 supercomputers– 256 Mb memory chip is 32 MB!– IRAM, CRAM, PIM,… projects abound
Integrate Networking with processing on one chip– system bus is a kind of network– ATM, FiberChannel, Ethernet,.. Logic on chip.– Direct IO (no intermediate bus)
Functionally specialized cards shrink to a chip.
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Technology Drivers: What if Technology Drivers: What if Networking Was as Cheap As Disk IO?Networking Was as Cheap As Disk IO? TCP/IP
– Unix/NT 100% cpu @ 40MBps
Disk– Unix/NT
8% cpu @ 40MBps
Why the Difference?Host Bus Adapter does
SCSI packetizing, checksum,…flow controlDMA
Host doesTCP/IP packetizing, checksum,…flow controlsmall buffers
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Technology Drivers: Technology Drivers: The Promise of SAN/VIAThe Promise of SAN/VIA:10x in 2 years:10x in 2 years http://www.ViArch.org/http://www.ViArch.org/
Today: – wires are 10 MBps (100 Mbps Ethernet)
– ~20 MBps tcp/ip saturates 2 cpus– round-trip latency is ~300 us
In the lab– Wires are 10x faster Myrinet, Gbps Ethernet,
ServerNet,…
– Fast user-level communication tcp/ip ~ 100 MBps 10% of each processor round-trip latency is 15 us
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Gbps Ethernet: 110 MBps
SAN: SAN: Standard InterconnectStandard Interconnect
PCI: 70 MBps
UW Scsi: 40 MBps
FW scsi: 20 MBps
scsi: 5 MBps
LAN faster than memory bus?
1 GBps links in lab.
100$ port cost soon
Port is computer
RIPFDDI
RIPATM
RIPSCI
RIPSCSI
RIPFC
RIP?
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Technology Drivers:Technology Drivers:
100 GBps Ethernet replaces SCSI100 GBps Ethernet replaces SCSI Why I love SCSI
– Its fast (40MBps)– The protocol uses little processor power
Why I hate SCSI– Wires must be short– Cables are pricey– pins bend
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Functionally Specialized CardsFunctionally Specialized Cards Storage
Network
Display
M MB DRAM
P mips processor
ASIC
ASIC
ASIC
Today:
P=50 mips
M= 2 MB
In a few years
P= 200 mips
M= 64 MB
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Technology DriversTechnology Drivers
Plug & Play SoftwarePlug & Play Software RPC is standardizing: (DCOM, IIOP, HTTP)
– Gives huge TOOL LEVERAGE– Solves the hard problems for you:
naming, security, directory service, operations,...
Commoditized programming environments – FreeBSD, Linix, Solaris,…+ tools– NetWare + tools– WinCE, WinNT,…+ tools– JavaOS + tools
Apps gravitate to data. General purpose OS on controller runs apps.
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Basic Argument for x-DisksBasic Argument for x-Disks Future disk controller is a super-computer.
– 1 bips processor– 128 MB dram– 100 GB disk plus one arm
Connects to SAN via high-level protocols– RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,…. – Commands are RPCs– management, security,….– Services file/web/db/… requests– Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev
environment Move apps to disk to save data movement
– need programming environment in controller
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SummarySummary Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see &
hear? The architecture revolution:
processing moves to transducers