nuclear energy 2014: status and outlookleg.wa.gov/jointcommittees/archive/nejstf/documents/14 09...
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Nuclear Energy 2014:Status and Outlook
Paul GenoaNuclear Energy Institute
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0
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40
60
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1990 1996 2002 2008
U.S. Nuclear Industry … At a Glance
Sustained Reliability and Productivity:U.S. Nuclear Plant Capacity Factors
91.8% in 200791.1% in 200890.5% in 200991.2% in 201088.9% in 201186.4% in 201290.9% in 2013
2013
• Consistently high levels of safety, reliability
• Increased safety and ability to handle extreme natural events
• Halfway through a 30-billion-dollar-plus construction program
• Used fuel: Legislation to restructure program introduced in Senate; court ordered Nuclear Regulatory Commission to resume review of
Source:Energy Information
Administration
Yucca Mountain license application; ordered Department of Energy to stop collecting nuclear waste fee
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Global Outlook for Nuclear Energy
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Global Nuclear Energy Development
Countries with operating commercial reactors
Emerging nuclear countries with planned reactors
Emerging nuclear countries with proposed reactors
70 new reactors under construction
172 new nuclear plants on order or planned
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$6.7 $11.1 $18.50
1020304050607080
Global Market 15% Market Share 25% Market Share
U.S. Market Share Tied Directly to Jobs
$50-$74 billion each
year
Sources: Department of Commerce, Government Accountability Office
Current U.S. 9% share: 66,600 jobs
111,100 jobs
$ bi
llion
s
185,000 jobs
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U.S. Exports = U.S. JobsNew Plants
• Consulting Services- Engineering - Legal and Regulatory - Project Management
• Construction• Workforce Development
• Power Plants- Design- Major components- Sub-components- Consumables
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U.S. Exports = U.S. JobsOngoing Operations
• Plant operations - Services- Replacement components - Maintenance and repair
services• Fuel
- Natural uranium- Conversion- Enrichment- Fabrication- Used fuel management
• Modifications and upgrades
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U.S. Exports = U.S. JobsDecommissioning
• Decommissioning- Clean-up- Remediation- Waste management- Environmental
services
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Nuclear Plant Shutdowns:The Situation
• Reactor shutdowns- Four in 2013- One at the end of 2014
• Crystal River 3, San Onofre 2 and 3 were unique events- Over 110 PWRs (57 in the U.S.) have replaced steam
generators• Kewaunee, Vermont Yankee shut down because of adverse
market conditions• Others at risk
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Market Issues … At a Glance• Price signals inadequate to support operating capacity, or
investment in new capacity (except gas-fired)• Prices suppressed by RTO policies and actions, and by
state and federal mandates and subsidies• Fuel/technology diversity is taken for granted and
undervalued• Failure to address problems will:
- Compromise resource adequacy and reliability- Expose consumers to increasing price volatility- Frustrate efforts to reduce carbon emissions
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The Cost of Premature Nuclear Power Plant Shutdown
$50.86 $46.60 $50.10 $53.70 $57.30 $60.80 $64.40
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70
Small single-unit nuclear
plant
Gas at $3.50 Gas at $4.00 Gas at $4.50 Gas at $5.00 Gas at $5.50 Gas at $6.00
($ per MWh)
Sources: 2010-2012 average total generating cost of seven small (approx. 600 MW) nuclear plants from Electric Utility Cost Group (EUCG). Gas-fired combined cycle plant costs from NEI financial model: Debt at 5.0%, 15% return on equity, debt/equity structure of 50/50. Capital, O&M assumptions for natural gas are from the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013.
• Kewaunee 2009-2011 capacity factor: ∼ 95%
• Vermont Yankee 2010-2012 capacity factor: ∼ 90%
• Nothing wrong with the plants; something wrong with the markets
New combined cycle gas plant
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A Straightforward Policy Approach• Goods and services only produced when priced and valued
in the market• All electricity has certain attributes, depending on how it
is produced- if markets do not value those attributes in market design and
market policies, then suppliers will stop providing them
• Nuclear power plants have a number of attributes that have value to the grid
• Most of these attributes not monetized by competitive markets
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Nuclear Energy: A Solid Value PropositionSafe, Reliable Electricity 24-by-7-by-365 Plus …
SupportsGrid
Stability
Provides Price
Stability
Provides Clean Air
Compliance Value
Contributes to Fuel and Technology
Diversity (Portfolio
Value)
Anchors the Local
Community: Jobs, Tax
Base
Avoids Carbon
Emissions
Runs When
Needed (Fuel on
Site)
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Fuel Diversity• Existing diversity in the
electric system saves $93 billion for consumers
• Reduced diversity case results in:- 75% increase in wholesale
power prices; 25% for retail- $200 billion reduction in GDP- Loss of 1 million jobs- $2,100 reduction in household
disposable income
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-1500
-1000
-500
0Year 0 Year 4 Year 8 Year 12 Year 16 Year 20
GSP Output
Nuclear Power Plant Retirement:Impact on the State
Lost Gross State Product and Output (dollars in 2013 millions)
Source: Analysis of shutdown of 600-megawatt nuclear power plant using model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
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Nuclear Power Plant Retirement:Impact on the State
(Shutdown-Related Job Losses and Population Migration)
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0Year 0 Year 4 Year 8 Year 12 Year 16 Year 20
Direct jobs Secondary jobs Population
Source: Analysis of shutdown of 600-megawatt nuclear power plant using model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
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Signs of Progress• FERC Commissioners now
recognize the problem• Some RTOs seem to
recognize that baseload nuclear, coal deserve additional compensation because they have fuel on site and will run when called
• Policy community increasingly alarmed
• Awareness growing in the states (e.g., Illinois)
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U.S. New Nuclear Plant DevelopmentWatts Bar 2
• Completion September 2015 - June 2016• Cost: $4 billion - $4.5 billion• Large-scale construction largely complete, testing of individual plant
systems beginningVogtle 3 and 4
• On line late 2017 (Unit 3), late 2018 (Unit 4)• Verification, approval of all capital costs ($2.21 billion) to date by
Georgia PSCSummer 2 and 3
• On line 4Q 2017 - 1Q 2018 (Unit 2), 4Q 2018 - 1Q 2019 (Unit 3)Still to come
• NRC reviewing eight applications for combined licenses that represent 12 additional new reactors
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Watts Bar 2 – Tennessee
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Vogtle 3 & 4 - Georgia
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Summer 2 & 3 – South Carolina
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Advanced Designs: Small Modular Reactors
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Nuclear Energy and Carbon• Nuclear energy essential in any credible program to reduce
carbon emissions• EPA proposed rule under 111(d) recognizes compliance value
of nuclear energy• Two nuclear components to 111(d) rule
- For every state with nuclear capacity, 6% of 2012 nuclear kilowatt-hours (“at risk” capacity) added to denominator
- Output from five nuclear units under construction added to denominator in GA, SC, TN
• Treatment of nuclear energy lowers states’ carbon intensity targets
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588.5
203.0128.6
12.7 7.1
Nuclear Hydro Wind Geothermal Solar
U.S. Electric Power Industry CO2 Avoided
Sources: Emissions avoided are calculated using regional and national fossil fuel emission rates from the Environmental Protection Agency and plant generation data from the Energy Information Administration.
Million Metric Tons in 2013
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California Energy ComparisonGWh
18,097 16,985
San Onofre 2 & 3 generation in last fullyear of operation (2011)
California wind and solar generationlast year (2013)
Sources: San Onofre – Energy Information Administration; California – California Energy Commission
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-80
-40
0
40
80
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Chan
ge in
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
(mill
ion
met
ric to
ns)
Emissions Drop: Gas Displaces Coal, Load
Contraction Emissions Drop: MATS Coal
Retirements
Emissions Increase: Nuclear
Retirements
U.S. Power Sector CO2 Emissions(From 2013 Level)
Despite ∼ 60 GW of coal retirements, the addition of over 6 GW of new nuclear, and the continued build-out of renewable energy, power sector CO2 emissions increase between now and the end of the decade due to the retirement of 10.3 GW of nuclear energy in AEO 2014.
Emissions Increase: Load Growth,
Nuclear Retirements
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2030 and Beyond:The Nuclear Energy/Carbon Challenges
• To sustain carbon reductions beyond 2030, must (at a minimum) maintain existing nuclear capacity- Develop techniques to finance new nuclear build in
merchant markets- Ensure multiple technology options (Small Modular
Reactors) a strategic imperative- Second license renewal period (operation beyond 60
years) a valuable option