nuclear energy in the near future in mexico · lspee 2014 (electric service law) production should...
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ININ
Nuclear Energy in the Near Future in Mexico
L. Paredes-Gutiérrez, G. Alonso-Vargas, C. J. Palacios-HernándezInstituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares
mailto:[email protected]
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ININNuclear Power in Mexico
Milestones
Construction of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant
Creation of theNational Nuclear Energy Commission
Commercial operation Laguna Verde Units I & II
Nuclear Lawmodification
National NuclearEnergy Institute
Extended PowerUprate (EPU) projectat Laguna Verde
Start Up TRIGA Mark III
August 14th Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE)
Ley Reglamentaria del Artículo 27 Constitucional en materia nuclear (currently in force)
•CNSNS (Regulatory Body)
•ININ (R&D)
•Uramex (Extinguished)
Nuclear energyconsiderd clean energyNuclear Power remains
state owned
New CFE LawNew law for electricity
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Institutional Framework for nuclear energyHead of Nuclear
Sector
- Energy Policy
- Energy Strategy (ENE)
- Electricity Outlook (PSELEC)
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Research and development
CNSNS
RegulatoryBody
Federal ElectricityCompany
- Planning(POISE)- Generation
- Transmission- Nuclear Power
Head of Nuclear Sector
- Energy Policy
- Energy Strategy (ENE)
- Electricity Outlook (PSELEC)
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Research and development
CNSNS
RegulatoryBody
Federal ElectricityComission
- Planning(POISE)- Generation
- Transmission- Nuclear Power
Head of Nuclear Sector
- Energy Policy
- Energy Strategy (ENE)
- Planning ElectricitySector
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Research and development
CNSNS
RegulatoryBody
Federal ElectricityCompany- Generation
- Transmission- Distribution- Nuclear Power
New 2014 Law
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ININ Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant
• Owner /Operator CFE
• Two identical BWR GE BWR/5
• Unit 1 since july 1990
• Unit 2 since april 1995
• Thermal Capacity 2027 MW
(Original 1931 MW, now 2317 MW at 120%)
• Reference Power 665 MWe (each reactor).
• Net Desgin capacity 810.00 MWe
CNLV represents 3.08% as total installed capacity in the country, and represents 4.6% of the country's generated electrical energy on 2013.
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ININLaguna Verde participation in the
electricity system
3,8%3,7%
3,5%3,3%
3,1%2,9% 2,9%
2,8%2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,6%
3,1%
2,6%
5,5%
4,3%4,4%
4,9%
5,2%
4,4%
5,0%4,9%
4,5%
4,2%
4,5%
2,4%
3,9%
3,4%
4,6%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% de Capacidad Instalada %de Generación Nacional
ININ from SENER -CFE data “Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico”
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ININElectricity Generation in Mexico
2002-2013
Inhabitants 103 millions
Users 26 millions
Inhabitants 117 millions
Users36 millions
x0.4x0.1
1.2% p.a.
Users are growing more and faster than inhabitants
USERS POPULATION
Fuente: CONAPO, CFE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Electricity Generation
Termoeléctrica Ciclo combinado Dual Carboeléctrica Hidroeléctrica Nucleoeléctrica Geotermoeléctrica Eoloeléctrica Solar Fotovoltaica
201,059 MWh 287,859 MWh
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ININTechnologies in the Mexican
Electric System 2013
Hydro21,45% Wind
1,11%Solar PV
0,01%
Coal4,84%
Nuclear3,00%
Geoth1,53%
Thermal26,05%
CC36,82%
Dual5,18%
INSTALLED CAPACITY53,664 MW
Hydro10,64%
Wind0,70%
Solar PV0,01%
Coal6,22% Nuclear
4,58%Geoth2,35%
Thermal20,43%
CC49,02%
Dual6,04%
GENERATION 257,860 MWh
ININ data from CFE
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NUCLEAR ENERGY IN MEXICO
NEP 2007-2012
ENE 2012 -2026
ENE 2013-2027
POISE 2014-2028
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National Energy Program 2007-2012, Electricity Sector
II.2.2 Strategy. "Analyzing the feasibility of extending the nuclear electricity generation, under international standards of safety and operational reliability, contributing to the sustainable development of the country".
Action line: “Develop studies to determine whether to implement a program that drives the expansion of generating electricity including nuclear technology".
Based on the work carried out by the Committee of support for decision-making in the field of nuclear energy. Integrated by the SENER (who presides over it), the CFE, the ININ, CNSNS and IIE.
II.2 Objective "Balancing the portfolio of primary energysources in order to increase energy security."
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ININDiversify energy mix giving priority to non fossil
fuels
ENE 2012-2026ENE 2013-2028
Economic and productive efficiencyEnvironmental SustainabilityEnergy SecurityIncrease the participation of non-fossil fuels in electricity
generation to 35%.
LAERFTE 2012(Law for Renewables and
Energety Transition)
Fossil fuels in electricity generation should have a maximumof 65% in 2024, 60% in 2035 and 50% in 2050.
LSPEE 2014(Electric Service Law)
Production should take advantage of lower electricity cost(considering environmental externalities), stability andsecurity on service.
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ININ ENE 2012-2026
Diversify energy mix giving priority to non fossil fuels
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Combined Cycle Wind Nuclear
Bussines as
usual
49,837 MW installed
capacity
7,667 MW MW installed
capacity
1,590 MW de installed
capacity (same as now)
ENE1
Excludes 10,661 MW of CC
(15 o 16 proyectos de alrededor de
700 MW)
Addition of 28,413
MW (248 wind farms
100 MW each).
Backup: Adding 7,857
MW gas turbine
Same capacity installed that in the BAU
scenario
ENE2Same capacity installed
that in the BAU scenario
Addition of 10,753 MW
(equivalent to 7 to 8
nuclear plants)
ENE3
Addition of 20,968 MW
(209 wind farms 100 MW
each)
Backing: 5,792 MW gas
turbines are added
Adding 2,790 MW
(equivalent to two
nuclear power plants)
Technology
Wind power stations replace combined
cycles.
Nuclear power plants replace combined
cycle.
Nuclear and wind power replace
combined cycle .
Scenario
ENE 2012-2026 Planning scenarios
Installed Capacity2012: 52,534 MW2026: 93,502 MW
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ININ ENE 2012-2016 Analisys
Scenarios comparison
363
338
319
333
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
2026Inercial
2026ENE1
2026ENE2
2026ENE3
Gramos de CO2/kWh
1.123
3.215
1.5571.278
1.476
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2010 2026Inercial
2026ENE1
2026ENE2
2026ENE3
5,79%
6,94%
5,44% 5,09% 5,34%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2010 2026Inercial
2026ENE1
2026ENE2
2026ENE3
.
Scenario Cost fuel supply security
CO2 Emissions
Increasing nuclear energy share in the power generation portfolio could be necessary to meet the goals of the energy policy in Mexico.
EmissionsEnergy Security
PriceFuel
supply
Better ENE-2 ENE-2 ENE-2
ENE-3 ENE-3 ENE-3
ENE-1 ENE-1 ENE-1
Less acceptable BAU BAU BAU
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Strategic Theme 10 Diversify and optimize the generation park
Strategic Theme 16. Define the scope of the nuclear program to expand nuclear capacity in Mexico
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Net Electricity Generation CFEPlanning Scenario
CC64.75%
Turbogas0,23%
Combustión interna0,23%
HYDRO10.38%
COAL7.35%
NUCLEAR2.92%
GEOTH2.10%
WIND3.15%
THERMO conventonal
1.75%
Coque0,58%
NGL 2/2,68%
TCL 1/3,85%
Solar0,01%
CC45.60%
Turbogas2,40%
Combustión interna0,40%
HYDRO12.00%
COAL13.00%
NUCLEAR3.30%
GEOTH2.20%
WIND0.50%
THERMO conventional
20.60%
1 Tecnología de carbón Limpio2 Nueva Generación Limpia. Nucleoeléctrica o renovable
2027 Planeación458,784 GWh
2012 Real261,895 GWh
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Strategic Theme 16. Define the scope of the nuclear program to expand nuclear capacity in Mexico
Capacity building according to a nuclear program
ININ, CNSNS, UNIVERSITIES
DIFFERENTENTITIES
Planning Oriented to Diversification
TOPIC
• To elaborate a technical proposal in orderto implement a nuclear program that allows the diversity in the generation mix
ACTION LINE
SENER, CFE
RESPONSIBLE
Strengthening Regulatory
• Strengthen regulatory commissions, both the CRE as CNSNS
SENER
• Sufficient experienced a qualified human resources.
• Strengthen existing national industry and technological capabilities in the nuclear field
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Strategic Theme 16. Define the scope of the nuclear program to expand nuclear capacity in Mexico
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PRODESEN 2016-2030
Se adicionarán 3 reactores nucleares 2028, 2029 y 2030
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PRODESEN 2016-2030 Mezcla de Generación
Convencional80%
Hidroeléctrica10%
Eólica3%
Geotérmica2%
Solar Fotovoltaica
0%
Nucleoeléctrica4%
Bioenergía0%
Cogeneración eficiente1%
Frenos regenerativos0%
Outra5%
2015309.5 GWh
Convencional59%
Hidroeléctrica11%
Eólica11%
Geotérmica3%
Solar Fotovoltaica
3% Nucleoeléctrica9%
Bioenergía0%
Cogeneración eficiente4%
Frenos regenerativos0%
Outra13%
2030443.6 GWh
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PRODESEN 2015-2029; Programa de instalación de centrales eléctricas 2015-2029.
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ININ Remarks
• Increasing nuclear energy share in the power generation portfolio couldbe necessary to meet the goals of the energy policy in Mexico
• An early decision on increasing nuclear capacity will mean:
– More likely to succeed reaching the 35% participation of clean technologies.
– Let this be a real alternative in the supply of electricity in Mexico.
• The construction of nuclear power plants may be simultaneous, inaccordance with best international practices (less time, lower coststhrough economies of scale).
• Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant has area for two new units, and wouldbe possible to immediately start the process of site licensing.
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Nuclear Energy in the Near Future in Mexico
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