Nuclear Weapons

Nick McGreivy

June 2020

Nick McGreivy Nuclear Weapons June 2020 1 / 25

Part I: Background

”You have to be an incredible optimist to think that we can keep 14,000nuclear weapons in fallible human hands and think that something terrible

is not going to happen.” -Joe Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund

“The panic, the absolute political and economic chaos that would followsuch an exchange - there’s no way to prepare for that. The fact that it

hasn’t happened in 75 years is largely a matter of luck. The longer we go,the more likely is that our luck will run out.” -Alexandra Bell, CACNP

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Nuclear weapons kill people in three ways

1. Primary deaths from explosion2. Secondary deaths from radiation

3. Tertiary deaths from climate change, nuclear winter, and massstarvation

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Primary Deaths from Explosion

See Nukemap, an easy-to-use website which estimates the number ofprimary deaths for a given explosion.

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Secondary Deaths from Radiation

Radiation in low doses, i.e. below 1 rem, is effectively harmless. However,radiation in high doses, above 100 rem, is extremely dangerous. 500 rem is a

50/50 chance of death. Nuclear weapons release enormous amounts of radiation.Source: BEIR-VII report on health effects of radiation.

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Assumes wind is blowing east.

Tertiary deaths from climate change and mass starvation

After a nuclear war, smoke from the fires could cover the planet blocking out thesun and making the earth cold and dark. Although climate science is not settled

on the effects of a nuclear war, our best estimates suggest that even a smalllimited nuclear war (most likely between India and Pakistan) would lead to rapid

cooling of global temperatures and massive starvation of 1-2 billion people. Amajor nuclear war would lead to the death of the vast majority of the global

population and the end of civilization.

Hiroshima in 1945, destroyed by massive fires after the bombing.Sources: Nature

Alan Robock, Professor of Environmental Sciences

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How many nuclear weapons does the US have?

There are about 13,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, the US and Russiahave 90%. The US nuclear force can roughly be divided into three types of

weapons, known as the “nuclear triad”. These are: (1) land-basedintercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), (2) submarine-launched ballistic

missiles (SLBMs), and (3) strategic bombers carrying gravity bombs or cruisemissiles.

Sources: FAS, CACNPNick McGreivy Nuclear Weapons June 2020 7 / 25

Nuclear Triad: LandIntercontinental Ballistic Missiles or ICBMs

The US ground-based ICBM (the Minuteman III) is a rocket launched intoorbit from IBCM fields in Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Nebraska,

and Wyoming.

These ICBMs are kept on high-alert, ready to launch within minutes andon warning of an enemy attack. These cannot be called back once

launched.

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Nuclear Triad: Air

Planes can either drop gravity bombs or launch jet-powered cruise missiles.

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Nuclear Triad: Sea

From the DOD website: “Ballistic missile submarines serve as anundetectable launch platform for submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

These submarines are designed for stealth and are on constant patrol, withenough firepower on board to make just one submarine the sixth most

powerful nuclear power in the world.”

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How much does the US spend on nuclear weapons?

Today, we spend about 35 billion USD peryear (and rapidly increasing) on nuclearweapons. This money goes primarily to theDepartment of Energy (DOE) to build thebombs and to the Department of Defense(DOD) to build the planes, submarines, andground-based launchers. The B2 bombersand B61 gravity bombs cost more thantheir weight in gold.

whiteThe US is beginning a nuclear modernization effort that will cost an

additional 1.2 trillion USD (1.7 trillion inflation adjusted) over the next 30years and dramatically increase the amount of spending on nuclear

weapons.Source: ACA, ACA

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Why do we have a nuclear triad?

According to the Department of Defense:

“The purpose of the nuclear triad is to reduce the possibility that anenemy could destroy all the nation’s nuclear forces in a first-strike attackby retaining a second-strike capability.”

This logic doesn’t hold up. Nuclear submarines alone are sufficient. Theyare virtually undetectable and contain missiles that can strike any targetaround the globe, providing both effective deterrence and a second-strike

capability.

Nuclear Historian Stephen I. Schwartz:

“But the triad as we know it was not the result of any sort of systematicplan. It simply evolved as the Air Force and the Navy built weapons in nosmall measure to deny the budgetary advantage to each other.”

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A brief history of nuclear weapons

1938: Discovery of fission by Lise Meitner and Otto Frisch

1942-1946: Manhattan Project to build the first nuclear weapons

1945: Fission bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki

1952: First test of Hydrogen Bomb

1950s-1980s: Cold War, nuclear arms race between US and Russia.

1962: Cuban Missile Crisis, in which “the Joint Chiefs of Staff unanimously agreed that a full-scale attack and invasionwas the only solution.” Kennedy disagreed.

1991: Fall of the Soviet Union

1990s and 2010s: massive reduction of US and Russian nuclear stockpiles after START treaty

2010: New START treaty between US and Russia

2010s-: Stagnation of arms reductions

2015-: Modernization of US arsenal

2015-: Iran Nuclear Deal limiting Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons.

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Theory of Deterrence and Mutually Assured DestructionLogic from the Cold War

The intellectual justification for the theory of mutually assured destruction(MAD) came out of a series of Harvard-MIT faculty seminars from

1958-1966. They developed game-theoretic models of nuclear deterrenceassuming rational decision-makers and identified three criteria for stability:

A high stigma against the use of nuclear weapons compared to conventionalweapons

A second-strike capability, so that either actor can still retaliate against anall-out nuclear attack

Prevention of the spread of nuclear weapons outside US/Soviet Union

Getting this right is critical

The security of civilization rests upon the theory of deterrence. Deterrence theoryis a flawed theory, for many reasons.

Source: The American Approach to Nuclear Arms Control: A RetrospectiveNick McGreivy Nuclear Weapons June 2020 14 / 25

Nuclear Close Calls

1960: US warning system detected dozens of Soviet missiles launched at the United States, fooled by moonrise overNorway. Fortunately the Soviet leader was in NYC at the time, which led to belief of a possible false alarm.

1961: A bomber carrying two 3 megaton bombs broke up mid-air over Goldsboro, NC. Five of the six safety mechanismsin one of the bombs failed, the single switch which did not fail is the reason we still have North Carolina.

1962: At the height of the the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2 of the 3 Soviet commanders of a Russian submarine agreed tolaunch a 10kt nuclear weapon at the US navy, which very likely would have triggered a massive war between the US andthe Soviet union. Second-in-command Vasily Arkhipov disagreed, his decision “saved the world”.

1968: Bomber carrying four nuclear bombs crashed in Greenland, contaminating area with Plutonium.

1979: A mistakenly inserted training tape led to President Carter being told he had 3-7 minutes to decide whether toretaliate. US ICBMs and bombers prepared for takeoff. The National Emergency Airborne Command Post (the planedesigned to allow the U.S. president to maintain control in case of an attack) took off, without the president. After 6-7minutes, satellite systems determined it was a false alarm.

1983: A Soviet early warning satellite showed that the United States had launched five land-based missiles at the SovietUnion during a period of high tension. Officer Stanislov Petrov, based on an intuition that the US would not fire onlyfive missiles in an attach, disobeyed military orders and proclaimed the warning to be a false alarm. “This decision isseen as having prevented a retaliatory nuclear attack against the United States and its NATO allies, which would haveresulted in an immediate and irrevocable escalation to a full-scale nuclear war.”

1995: Norwegian scientific rocket on a mission to study the aurora borealis triggered Russian full alert and activation ofthe “nuclear football” by Russian President Boris Yeltzin.

Source: Union of Concerned Scientists

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Part II: Policy

“These policies have impact. You can’t argue that policy matters and then seeterrible policy be put into effect and think something terrible isn’t going to

happen.” -Joe Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund

“The story of nuclear weapons will have an ending, and it is up to us what thatending will be. Will it be the end of nuclear weapons, or will it be the end of us?”

-Beatrice Fihn of ICAN, accepting the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

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1. Presidential Sole Authority

President Harry Truman, shortly after the bombings of Hiroshima andNagasaki, decided (correctly) that the military should not have the

authority to use nuclear weapons, that power was eventually placed in thepresident himself. Today, the president has the power to launch the entirenuclear arsenal with a single command, ending civilization. So long as the

military decides such a launch is not illegal, there are no checks orbalances in place to stop them from taking such an action.

Action: First use should require the shared authority of the legislative andexecutive branches. Congress should pass legislation that requires a

declaration of war by Congress that specifically authorizes a nuclear attackbefore the president can use nuclear weapons.

Sources: See Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, also William J. Perry Secretaryof Defense under Clinton

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2. Launch on Warning

See 2 minute video.

US nuclear policy is still heavily influenced by the cold war, when thebiggest concern was of a surprise attack by the Soviet Union. This meansthat nuclear weapons are kept on hair-trigger alert, ready to launch withinminutes. Today, the risk of a false nuclear alarm greatly outweighs the risk

of a surprise nuclear attack. We should never rush into nuclear warwithout complete information.

Action: Hair-trigger alert status greatly increases the risk of bothaccidental nuclear war and rapid escalation and is not necessary for aneffective nuclear deterrent. The US should remove it’s nuclear weapons

from hair-trigger alert status and eliminate the ability of weapons tolaunch on warning.

Sources: Union of Concerned Scientists, The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

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3. Retirement of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles(ICBMs)

“Retiring ICBMs would solve a number of problems for US nuclear policy. Itwould reduce the pressure to launch on warning and “use them or lose them”;

make US no-first-use policy more credible; and save hundreds of billions of dollarsthat could be redirected to higher-priority projects. Without first use, ICBMs

would have no legitimate purpose. Most of them would be destroyed by a Russianfirst strike and would be unnecessary in any other scenario. The ICBMs aresimply not needed for an effective response, which would be carried out by

submarine-based weapons. . . . US plans to spend about $150 billion to build anew generation of ICBMs are not only a waste of taxpayer money, but deployingthose weapons would make us less safe. The ICBMs are, at best, extra insurancethat we do not need; at worst, they are a nuclear catastrophe waiting to happen.”

-William Perry, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Action: ICBMs increase the risk of an accidental nuclear strike, are not necessaryfor an effective deterrent, and make us less safe. The US should immediately take

ICBMs off high alert and retire all ICBMs.

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4. Diplomacy and Arms Control Agreements

The US was the first country to develop atomic weapons, the US is theonly country to have used nuclear weapons, and the US is the country best

suited for leading negotiations on global arms reductions. Negotiations,communications, and inspections have led to progress in reducing both the

number of nuclear weapons and the risk of a nuclear war and nuclearproliferation. The US can and should engage in diplomacy with both our

allies and our adversaries to reduce the nuclear threat.

Action: The US needs to continue it’s nuclear agreements and take thelead on significantly reducing the number of nuclear weapons. At a

minimum, the US should extend the New START treaty with Russia andre-enter the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA). The US should then engage with

Russia on additional talks to further reduce the number of nuclearweapons.

Source: Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists, Bulletin of The AtomicScientists

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Part III: Effecting Change

“We like to think of nuclear weapons and the threat of nuclear war as issue zero,because if nuclear war breaks out tomorrow all of our work on other social issuesends, we can’t work on equality, we can’t work on advancing civil rights, we can’tfocus on ending racism if all we can focus on is the fact that the world is ending

around us.” - Tristan Guyette, Beyond the Bomb

“When I go around and talk to people, particularly younger people, my experienceis when they know a little more, they’re actually horrified. They’re horrified by

how many weapons their are, the potential for something to go wrong so quickly,but they’re also horrified they didn’t know about it.” -Emma Belcher, MacArthur

Foundation

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Why does the US still have so many nuclear weapons?

1. A belief in deterrence theory and the nuclear triad

Many in Washington believe in the importance of our nuclear deterrenceand the nuclear triad. From the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review by the USGovernment: “Given the diverse threats and profound uncertainties of thecurrent and future threat environment, U.S. nuclear forces play thefollowing critical roles in U.S. national security strategy. They contributeto the deterrence of nuclear and non-nuclear attack; assurance of alliesand partners; achievement of U.S. objectives if deterrence fails; andcapacity to hedge against an uncertain future.”Source: Carnegie Moscow Center

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Why does the US still have so many nuclear weapons?

2. Special Interests: Defense Contractors and Weapons Jobs“There is, in fact, a dirty little secret behind the massive US arsenal: It has more to dowith the power and profits of this country’s major weapons makers than it does with anyimaginable strategic considerations.” In 2019, there were 681 defense lobbyists.“When traditional lobbying methods don’t get the job done, the industry’s argument oflast resort is jobs—in particular, jobs in the states and districts of key members ofCongress. This process is aided by the fact that nuclear weapons facilities are spreadremarkably widely across the country.”“Another way the nuclear weapons industry (like the rest of the military-industrialcomplex) tries to control and focus public debate is by funding hawkish, right-wing thinktanks.”“The Senate has a little known entity called the ICBM Caucus. The ICBM Caucus ismade up of senators from the northern states that contain the majority of the UnitedStates’ intercontinental ballistic missile silos. Any attempt to mothball that aging fleetof weapons aimed at Russia is met with flag waving, and stern rebuke. Those efforts atrationality always die in committee.””Unnecessary or outmoded defense projects are difficult to get rid of because defensecontractors have strategically placed research-and-development jobs, as well asmanufacturing plants, in nearly all of the 435 congressional districts.”Sources: The Nation, Joe Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund, and Senator Mike Enzi

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Why does the US still have so many nuclear weapons?

3. Public Disinterest

Because representatives rarely hear from their constituents about nuclearweapons, their stances on nuclear weapons have very little impact on theirchances of re-election. This public disinterest allows the defense lobby toact largely unchecked by the public, and reinforces the existing nuclearsystem.

Key Message

If significant and lasting change is to come on nuclear weapons, it has tocome through increased public awareness, interest, and visibility.

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How to get involved

Join ICAN, the international campain to abolish nuclear weapons.

Get involved with Beyond the Bomb, a grassroots movement to stopnuclear war.

Donate to organizations like The Ploughshares Fund which promotethe elimination of nuclear weapons and prevent the emergence of newnuclear states.

Urge action and increase awareness on social media

Write to your elected officials

Get informed through podcasts, books, and a Netflix documentary“The Bomb”.

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