Number 701, September 14, 2020

Trading of goods in 1H2020 ............................................................. .1

Weekly overview ............................................................................... 2

Statistics ........................................................................................... 3

Trading of goods in 1H2020

During the first half of 2020 total exports of goods reached the level of 51.6 billion kuna, posting a decrease of

5.9% compared to the same period last year, primarily owing to the decline of exports in Manufacturing (-

8.7%), hitting some of the largest components such as, in particular, Manufacture of coke and refined

petroleum products (-38.8%), then Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (-24.9%) and

Manufacture of machinery and equipment, n.e.c. (-15.6%). The introduction of lockdown, i.e. strict

epidemiological measures at the end of March, generated a strong negative impact on the economic activity

and in April and May a sharp contraction of exports was recorded, amounting to as much as 21.7%, i.e. 23.0%

yoy, while a positive growth rate was registered in June (+7.5%) amid a gradual recovery of economic activity.

From the destination perspective, exports of goods to the EU member states in the first half of 2020 dropped

by 2.6% yoy, where exports in the three states holding the largest share (over 50% of exports in the EU) within

the group (Germany, Italy and Slovenia) were respectively reduced by 7.9%, 22.0% and 9.7%. Exports to the

CEFTA member states were simultaneously reduced by 13.1% yoy, with emphasis placed on the contraction

of exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina of 21.4%. Although the registered exports yoy decline rates in April and

May were relatively high, imports of goods recorded an even sharper plunge (-35.6% and -28.5%), owing both

to the deterioration of domestic consumption and the relatively substantial export dependency on imports. In

line with the gradual recovery, in June imports also recorded a positive yoy growth rate of 2.6%. Total imports

of goods thus in the first semester reached 83.5 billion kuna, down by 11.3% yoy, where a decline with the

largest share was recorded in Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (by 3.0 billion kuna or

35.8%) and Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (by 2.7 billion kuna or 47.5%), partly under

the influence of lower crude oil market price. Over the same period imports from the EU dropped by 12.8%,

and from the CEFTA by 6.7%. Total foreign trade deficit of trade in goods in this year’s first semester thus

reached 32.0 billion kuna, down by 18.8% yoy, while the rate of coverage of imports by exports increased by

61.7% or 3.5 p.p. yoy. Along with the data for June, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics also published the

preliminary data for this year’s first seven months (contraction of exports by 7.7% and imports by 11.9%)

indicating an almost equal yoy decline rate of exports and imports (-15.9% and -15.5%) in July.

4,6 8,2

-7,1

-21,7 -23,0

7,5

-15,9

3,4

8,8

-10,0

-35,6

-28,5

2,6

-15,5

-40,0

-35,0

-30,0

-25,0

-20,0

-15,0

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

%

Foreign trade of goods by month in 2020, y/y %

change, in HRKSource: CBS

Export Import

1.500.000 2.500.000 3.500.000 4.500.000 5.500.000 6.500.000 7.500.000 8.500.000

Germany

Italy

Slovenia

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Hungary

Goods exports (HRK), top 5 coutries with largest value of exportsSource: CBS

1H2019 1H2020

Weekly overview

• Last week the domestic FX market was rather quiet and trading was conducted in the range of 7.53-7.54

kuna to the euro. At the end of the week the midpoint exchange rate amounted to 7.5302 kuna to the euro,

resulting almost unchanged in wow terms, while against the dollar the kuna strengthened by a mild 0.1%

to 6.3433 kuna to the dollar. This week we expect the steady trading to continue.

• The standstill on the money market is continued. Excess liquidity increased to almost 42 billion kuna,

interest rates recorded no changes, and there was no interest at the CNB’s regular repo auction.

• The Crobex Index closed last Friday at 1,610.09 points, up by 0.1% wow, while Crobis closed at 112.15

points (+0.1%). As concerns sector indices, CROBEXtourist advanced by 0.1% (to 2,936.53 points),

CROBEXindustriy by 1.5% (871.68 points), while CROBEXconstruct fell by 0.5% wow (to 763.73 points).

Last week the total ZSE turnover reached 272.2 million kuna, up by 84.2% wow, owing to a 2.3 times

higher turnover in bonds (reaching 237.7 million kuna), while turnover in shares dropped by 19.5% (to

34.5 million kuna).

Statistics

RESEARCH OFFICE

Ivana Jović

Ana Lokin

Ivan Odrčić

TREASURY

Eugen Bulat

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