nws climate products and services to support decision makers committee for climate analysis,...
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NWS Climate Products and NWS Climate Products and Services to Support Services to Support
Decision MakersDecision Makers
Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services October 30, 2007October 30, 2007
Fiona HorsfallFiona HorsfallNOAA/National Weather ServiceNOAA/National Weather Service
Climate ServicesClimate Services
OutlineOutline
• NWS Climate ServicesNWS Climate Services
• How valuable are climate forecasts?How valuable are climate forecasts?
– Climate forecast skill Climate forecast skill
– Extrapolation of long-term trends Extrapolation of long-term trends
• What’s next?What’s next?
• NWS MissionNWS Mission• Documented customer requirements forDocumented customer requirements for
– More easily understood productsMore easily understood products– Regional and local climate products and Regional and local climate products and
servicesservices
• A comprehensive operations manualA comprehensive operations manual• PartnershipsPartnerships• Climate record stewardshipClimate record stewardship
NWS CLIMATE SERVICES
NWS has a vast and robust Climate Services Program
• Extensive staff trainingExtensive staff training– Climate variability and changeClimate variability and change– Data stewardshipData stewardship– Customer serviceCustomer service
• Standardized web pagesStandardized web pages– Data web toolsData web tools– Copious help information for customersCopious help information for customers
• New forecast productsNew forecast products– Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO), Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO),
with others coming soonwith others coming soon
NWS CLIMATE SERVICES
NWS has a vast and robust Climate Services Program
Local 3-Month Temperature Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook - Outlook - L3MTOL3MTO
L3MTOL3MTO
L3MTOL3MTO
L3MTOL3MTO
L3MTOL3MTO
L3MTOL3MTO
L3MTOL3MTO Formats Formats
L3MTOL3MTO Probability of ExceedanceProbability of Exceedance
Why is Why is L3MTOL3MTO Useful? Useful?
• If large-scale forecast has skill, uses If large-scale forecast has skill, uses forecast – downscaled to stationforecast – downscaled to station
• Adjusts forecast to take into account local Adjusts forecast to take into account local climate (micro climates)climate (micro climates)
• If no skill in large-scale forecast, adjusts If no skill in large-scale forecast, adjusts local climatology to incorporate local local climatology to incorporate local trendtrend
A Quick Note about A Quick Note about Climate Forecast SkillClimate Forecast Skill
What do we know? What do we know?
• There are important There are important long-term trends in long-term trends in the mean temperature and precipitationthe mean temperature and precipitation climates of North America.climates of North America.
• Primary sources of skill for North AmericaPrimary sources of skill for North America– TrendTrend– ENSO (El NiENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)ño-Southern Oscillation)
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature
Global Global meanmean14.0°C14.0°C
Trenberth (2004)
Weak TrendsWeak Trends
Livezey et al, 2007
a) 30-Year Hinge Temperature Trend (°C/30 yrs) - JFM
b) 30-Year Hinge Precipitation Trend (cm/30 yrs) - OND
<-2 -2 to -1.3 -1.3 to -0. 7 -0.7 to -0.4 -0.4 to -0.2 -0.2 to 0.2
0.2 to 0.4 0.4 to 0.7 0.7 to 1.3 1.3 to 2 >+2
<-11.4 -11.4 to -7.6 -7.6 to -4.6 -4.6 to -2.3 -2.3 to -0.8 -0.8 to 0.8
0.8 to 2.3 2.3 to 4.6 4.6 to 7.6 7.6 to 11.4 >11.4
Strong TrendsStrong Trends
Forecast SkillForecast Skill
• Heidke Skill ScoreHeidke Skill Score
• % improvement over expected% improvement over expected• Count EC (equal chances) as a hitCount EC (equal chances) as a hit• Forecasts become usable with score Forecasts become usable with score
> +25> +25• Smaller cost/loss ratio – can use lower scoreSmaller cost/loss ratio – can use lower score
Hits: Forecasts correctExpected: ClimatologyTotal: Total forecasts
Hits – ExpectedTotal - Expected
3-Month Temperature Forecast SkillNon-ENSO Years
Skill
Livezey and Timofeyeva, 2007
3-Month Precipitation Forecast SkillNon-ENSO Years
Skill?
Livezey and Timofeyeva, 2007
Skill - A little in places
Temperature & Precipitation SkillTemperature & Precipitation SkillStrong ENSO YearsStrong ENSO Years
Skill Skill
Livezey and Timofeyeva, 2007
A Quick Note about A Quick Note about Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Change
• In order to credibly project future scenarios of In order to credibly project future scenarios of high-impact weather-related events, a model high-impact weather-related events, a model must credibly treat them in the past must credibly treat them in the past
• Existing climate models cannot reproduce Existing climate models cannot reproduce weather scenarios adequately over the recent (30-weather scenarios adequately over the recent (30-year) historical recordyear) historical record
• Thus they cannot credibly produce future Thus they cannot credibly produce future weather scenarios of other than the gross weather scenarios of other than the gross geographic and seasonal distribution of mean geographic and seasonal distribution of mean surface temperaturesurface temperature
• This applies to all spatial scales, including This applies to all spatial scales, including regional regional
Climate Model CapabilitiesClimate Model CapabilitiesDJF JJA
? ? ?
NOAA Online Weather Data NOAA Online Weather Data NOWDataNOWData
• Data query Data query system for basic system for basic climate statisticsclimate statistics
• 30+ years30+ years
• 3,800 surface 3,800 surface observing observing stations (non-stations (non-airport)airport)
• Conterminus Conterminus U.S., AK, HI, PR, U.S., AK, HI, PR, USVI, GuamUSVI, Guam
Ref: Bob Leffler
NWS CLIMATE SERVICES
• The Training Program is available at Climate Services Professional Development Series (PDS)
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/csd/pds/index.shtml
• Instructional Components of Climate Services PDS available to non-NWS users:– Online tutorials– Webcasts – Teletraining
NWS CLIMATE SERVICESTraining
Downloadable free NWS fact sheetsDownloadable free NWS fact sheets
Available at: http://www.weather.gov/os/brochures.shtml
NWS Climate ServicesNWS Climate Services
Will be Precipitation
Will be Precipitation
Local 3-month Precipitation Outlook (L3MPO)
NWS Climate ServicesNWS Climate Services
Will be Precipitation
Will be Precipitation
For Example:For Example:
• Pacific Islands – Sea-level forecasts Pacific Islands – Sea-level forecasts
• Florida – Forecasts for “storminess” or the Florida – Forecasts for “storminess” or the number of storms expected to occur during number of storms expected to occur during the dry seasonthe dry season
• Baltimore, Maryland – Forecast for the Baltimore, Maryland – Forecast for the likelihood of a major winter snow eventlikelihood of a major winter snow event
NWS Climate ServicesNWS Climate Services
3-Month Outlook of Local El Ni3-Month Outlook of Local El Niñño/La Nio/La Niñña Impacts a Impacts (3MOLEI)(3MOLEI)
• Outlooks based on local El Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña signal
SummarySummary
• NWS has robust Climate ServicesNWS has robust Climate Services
• NWS local forecast products provide NWS local forecast products provide services to the publicservices to the public
• Climate forecasts offer some skill, but not Climate forecasts offer some skill, but not perfectperfect
• We are working on new products and We are working on new products and servicesservices
• Contact local forecast offices for more Contact local forecast offices for more informationinformation