ny-Ålesund symposium, svalbard – june 10, 2009 elements of a good post-kyoto agreement. what...
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Elements of a good post-Kyoto agreement. What could business deliver if these elements were adopted?
Björn Stigson, WBCSD PresidentNy-Ålesund Symposium 2009
June 10, 2009Svalbard
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Society
Economy Environment
The World in Transition to Sustainability
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
The Future Society: A Growth Story
© 2
008
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N
RE
FE
RE
NC
E B
UR
EA
U
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Development: The Poverty Challenge
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Income poverty:Over 2 billion people live on less than $2/day
Energy poverty: 1.6 billion people today without access to electricity
Mobility poverty: 900 million people without access to transport
Water poverty: 1.8 million deaths per year due to lack of sanitation, poor hygiene and unsafe drinking water.
Sanitation poverty: 2.5 billion people without access to hygienic sanitation
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
The Future Society: Shifting Fortunes
% Share of GDPFrom The Economist print edition. “Wrestling for influence.” July 3rd 2008.
Emerging Economies more than half of Global GDP
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
The Future Society: Urban
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47% urban
60% urban
3.2 3.32.9
5.0
1970 2000 2030
(Billions of inhabitants)
36% urban
1.3
2.4
urban
rural
70% urban
2.8
6.4
2050
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Mindsets
Priorities
Equity
Share
d vis
ion
ValuesSociety
Economy Environment
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The World in Transition to Sustainability
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Solutions
Markets
Regulations
Infrastructure
Tec
hnol
ogy
Institutions
Financing
Mindsets
Prioriti
esEquity
Share
d vis
ion ValuesSociety
Economy Environment
The World in Transition to Sustainability
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Efficiency
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Geography
Local
RegionalNational
GlobalSolutions
Markets
Regulations
Infrastructure
Tec
hnol
ogy
Institutions
Financing
Mindsets
Prioriti
esEquity
Shared visio
nValues
Society
Economy Environment
Efficiency
Transition to a Low Carbon Economy
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008
Current energy trends are patently unsustainable – socially, environmentally, economically.
To avoid “abrupt and irreversible” climate change we need a major decarbonization of the world’s energy system.
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Global emissions scenarios
11Source: IEA. ETP 2008
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions in the climate policy scenarios
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Source: IEA. WEO 2008. Presentation by Dr. Fatih Birol
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
0%
1%
2%
3%
1973 - 1990 1990 - 2004
Ave
rag
e an
nu
al p
erce
nt c
han
ge
Actual energy use
Energyefficiency
improvements
Actual energy use
Energyefficiency
improvements
Hypothetical energy use without energy efficiency improvements
Source: Energy Use in the New Millennium (IEA, 2007)
Energy Efficiency
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Low price of energy due electricity and fuel subsidies
Absence of performance standards or lack of regulatory incentives
Lack of environmental awareness Lack of information about:
– Potential savings
– Options
– Expected life cycle cost
Fragmented value chains and lack of cooperation between parties involved
Barriers to energy efficiency
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Existing technology
Technology deployment– Key for energy efficiency and short/medium
term emission reductions
Technology transfer to developing countries– Lack of understanding of how technology
diffusion happens– Lack of capacity/capability to absorb technology– Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) – an issue?
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
New technology
Technology development– Need for huge increase of R&D funding to achieve
technical breakthroughs for key technologies– CCS– Next generation of nuclear– Renewables
– This will require a new public-private partnership
Technology acceptance?– Nuclear– Big hydro– Biofuels
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Key objective: Establish a price for carbon
Carbon market doubled from 2007 to 2008– Total value in 2008: 126 BUSD– Allowances and derivatives under EU ETS:
92 BUSD– Secondary market for CERs: 26 BUSD
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)?– Re-design or complement with new,
dedicated, flexible market mechanisms?
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Carbon markets
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A global carbon market?
Cap & trade established in the EU and debated in US, Japan & Australia
How to link national carbon markets?
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Carbon markets
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Major opportunity for companies to provide systems solutions, products, and services for “smart” and resource efficient infrastructure:
Buildings Transport Energy Water Communications Waste
Infrastructure
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Final energy use by sector in the Baseline, ACT Map and BLUE Map scenarios
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Source: IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2008
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
First phase:Facts & Trends Report published 2007
Second phase:A plan for transformation of the building sector and a roadmap for reduced energy use in buildings. – Launched in April
Next stepAn EEB Manifesto to mobilize all WBCSD members for EEB actions
Energy Efficiency in Buildings (EEB) Project
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
“Energy Efficiency in Buildings: Transforming the market”
• Key conclusions:– Market forces alone will not achieve what is
required.
Too few incentives and too little awareness and desire to change.
– Current policies are insufficient
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Project recommendations summary
A holistic approach
1. Strengthen codes and labeling
2. Incentivize energy efficient investments
3. Encourage integrated design approaches
4. Develop and use advanced technology to enable energy saving behavior
5. Develop work force capacity
6. Mobilize for an energy aware culture
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
What will it cost to realize the EEB objectives?
• Objective 2050:– 50% reduced energy use in buildings in the six “EEB
regions”
• Costs– 150 BUSD net investments/year to reduce energy use by
40% with payback time of less than 5 years– A further 150 BUSD net investments/year to reduce
energy use by an additional 12% with payback time of 5-10 years
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Launched Power to Change: A business contribution to a low-carbon electricity future at COP 14 in Poznan
Outlines a roadmap of sector specific national and international policy recommendations to address climate change.
Electricity Utilities Project
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
CO2 reduction within the power generation sector by contributing factor based on ACT Map and BLUE Map scenarios
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GtC
O2 r
edu
ctio
n to
20
50
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Initiated in 2000, 18 leading cement companies
Represent some 60% of global cement manufacturing outside of China
However, 50% of global cement production is in China
Cement Sustainability Initiative
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Model reviewed by IEA, LBNL and RITE
Comparison of scenario outputs: CO2 emissions projections • Emissions increase in all cases from 2005-2030
• Impacts occur late in the scenarios, if at all• Only ‘Global caps’ ‘Global goals’ & ‘a sectoral approach’ show impact on emissions
Cement demand forecast from International Cement Review and JP Morgan
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
20% of global carbon emissions come from cutting down forests.
Reducing and/or preventing deforestation is an important climate mitigation option.
Under CDM, developing countries can implement afforestation and reforestation project activities. – But avoided deforestations is not eligible for
carbon credit.
Sustainable Forest Products Industry
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Finance I
85% of global investment flows come from the private sector
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Finance II
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ure
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urc
e:
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: IE
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rice
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rs.
Financing the electricity needs of the developing world through 2010
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Finance III
Actions to increase financial flows to developing countries– Reform of the Clean Development
Mechanism– Establishment of new market
mechanisms – Increased ODA
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
GHG Protocol – a tool for implementation
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Tool for measuring & reporting GHG emissions developed with WRI since 1998
MOU with ISO
Activities Capacity building programs in China (ongoing),
Brazil (August 2008) Multi-stakeholder process to develop new
supply chain accounting guidance and standards: business, government, academics and organizations
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Advocacy: UNFCCC process
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COP14 – Poznan (Dec 2008)– Business Day– Business Ministerial Breakfast– Side events
Yvo de Boer
"A new framework must make business sense if it is to succeed."
"What policies do you, as Business, want to see in a new global framework?”
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Towards a Low Carbon Economy
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WBCSD Low-carbon Economy report launched at Bonn UNFCCC Meeting in March 2009
Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
Climate Change – A transformational challenge for society
A society that emits 50% less GHG emissions by 2050 will look very different
Major impacts on lifestyles, consumption patterns and infrastructures are likely
The transformation will not be easyThere will be winners and losers
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
A World in Transition to Sustainability
The world cannot succeed without Business as a committed solution provider to sustainable societies and ecosystems.
Business cannot succeed in societies that fail.
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Ny-Ålesund Symposium, Svalbard – June 10, 2009
www.wbcsd.org