nylon caprolactam nylon chips nylon filament - ccfei · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and...

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Issue Number 132 September 2013 Catalogue of CCFEI China Report (Monthly) Nylon Polyester Acrylic Viscose Spandex Caprolactam Nylon Filament Paraxylene MEG Fiber Grade PET Polyester Staple Propylene Acrylic Fiber Viscose Feedstock Viscose Filament MDI/PTMEG Nylon Chips PTA Bottle Grade PET Polyester Filament R-PET Fiber Acrylonitrile ABS Viscose Staple Spandex

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Page 1: Nylon Caprolactam Nylon Chips Nylon Filament - CCFEI · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips

Issue Number 132September 2013

Catalogue of CCFEI China Report (Monthly)

Nylon

Polyester

Acrylic

Viscose

Spandex

Caprolactam Nylon Filament

Paraxylene

MEG

Fiber Grade PET

Polyester Staple

Propylene

Acrylic Fiber

Viscose Feedstock

Viscose Filament

MDI/PTMEG

Nylon Chips

PTA

Bottle Grade PET

Polyester Filament

R-PET Fiber

Acrylonitrile

ABS

Viscose Staple

Spandex

Page 2: Nylon Caprolactam Nylon Chips Nylon Filament - CCFEI · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips

China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net Sep 2013 [CPL]

- 1 -

Caprolactam Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton)

Month Change Range Prev. Month

Sep Settled ↑175 19000-19280 18800-19000 RMB

Oct Listed ↑ 19200-19400 19000-19200

Sep Settled ↑ 2380-2390 2340-2350 USD

Oct Listed ↑ 2450-2500 2400-2450

17000

21000

25000

29000

33000

Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep

150020002500300035004000

Domestic USD

Y/T $/T

Asian caprolactam contracts for Sep in mainland China were settled at $2,380-2,390/ton, $405/ton higher than previous month. Producers aim at raising prices and list prices for Oct haven’t come out, which are expected to rise slightly.

Sinopec announced settlement prices for Sep contracts in late Sep, at 19,000 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days, liquid, AA grade), increasing by 200 yuan/ton from Aug settlement. DSM Nanjing settled Sep contracts at 19,280 yuan/ton (solid, D/A, self-lifting, AA grade), increasing by 280 yuan/ton from Aug. List prices for Sep caprolactam from domestic producers were expected to roll over.

Average Spot Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) Week Time Domestic USD-based

Week 1 2Sep-6Sep 18400 2352

Week 2 9Sep-13Sep 18500 2356

Week 3 16Sep-20Sep 18500 2360

Week 4 20Sep-27Sep 18500 2374

Week 5 29Sep-30Sep 18500 2380

Monthly Ave. in Sep 18477 2362

2100

2300

2500

2700

12Apr 24May 5Jul 16Aug 27Sep

Domestic spot market: Market continued to see a weak rebound amid firm raw material values and modest downstream demand.

Week 1: Market bounced back weakly, with offers for mid-to-low-end spot materials at 18,700-18,000 yuan/ton and mainstream deals for the low-end at 18,300-18,600 yuan/ton.

Week 2: Market rebounded, with offers for mid-to-low-end spot materials at 18,700-18,000 yuan/ton and mainstream deals for the low-end at 18,400-18,600 yuan/ton.

Week 3: Pricees were firm during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with mainstream trading numbers for the low-end at 18,500-18,700 yuan/ton.

Week 4: Prices stabilized, with offers for mid-to-low-end spot materials at 18,700-18,000 yuan/ton and mainstream deals for the low-end at 18,400-18,600 yuan/ton, while those for hgh-end ones were higher.

Week 5: Market saw small-volume replenishments ahead of the Natinal Day Holiday amid stable prices, with mainstream ones at 18,400-18,700 yuan/ton.

USD-based spot market: Prices edged up on benzene firmness and slightly tigher supply. Week 1: Prices edged up, with a few offers at $2,360-2,380/ton and mainstream prices at $2,330-2,360/ton,

while those for bonded cargoes were higher. Week 2: Prices edged up amid limited offers, with a few at $2,380-2,400/ton and mainstream prices at around

$2,350-2,400/ton. Week 3: Market was stable during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with mainstream numbers at $2,380-2,400/ton and

offers higher. Week 4: Market saw limited quotes at $2,400-2,420/ton. Mainstream prices were at around $2,380-2,400/ton,

while offers were higher. Week 5: Replenishments came to an end ahead of the Natinal Day Holiday, with mainstream prices at $2,390-

2,400/ton.

Monthly International CPL Value Trend

Asia ($/ton, CFR) Europe ($/ton, FOB)

Aug Sep Oct est. Aug Sep Oct est.

2320-2350 2370-2390 ↓ 2280-2320 2300-2350 ↑

Asian CPL contract prices for Sep climbed by $45/ton than Aug, with most settlement prices at $2,370-2,390/ton in Chinese Taiwan and mainland China. Asian list prices for Oct are expected to inch up from Sep. As spot market showed mild rises in Sep, CPL export values for Sep in Europe were slightly higher than that for Aug, and Oct export values are expected to rebound mildly.

Page 3: Nylon Caprolactam Nylon Chips Nylon Filament - CCFEI · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips

China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net Sep 2013 [CPL]

- 2 -

Statistics on Caprolactam Imports in China (ton, $/ton) Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Jan-Aug 2013 Jan-Aug 2012

Origin Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.

Belarus 2591 2313 2592 2339 22299 2366 36768 2632

Poland 1500 2276 1000 2342 16860 2302 24800 2665

Russia 13425 2357 10475 2319 78313 2341 126090 2644

USA 2791 2296 3559 2347 22862 2365 70181 2595

Mexico 5040 2364 5040 2330 31488 2385 31377 2738

Japan 9165 2366 11886 2350 71951 2432 82844 2637

Others 9259 2370 9567 2344 65555 2412 152648 2654

Total 43770 2353 44120 2338 309328 2383 524707 2645

According to the Customs, China imported 44,100 tons of CPL in Aug, sharply higher than Jul. Total import volume from Jan to Aug was at 309,000 tons, down by 41.3% from the same period in 2012. The largest import volume in Aug is from Japan, reaching 11,886 tons. The volume from Russia ranks the second at 10,475 tons, followed by that from Mexico at 5,040 tons.

Average import price in Aug is at $2,338/ton, mildly down from Jul. The highest number for Aug is at $2,355/ton for the cargoes from Thailand, followed by $2,353/ton from Belgium. The number for Germany-origin goods is at $2,264/ton, the lowest one in Aug.

Inventory Volume and Operation of Caprolactam Producers

1. Hubei Sanning’s 100kt/yr CPL unit was running at reduced rates on cyclohexanone supply problem, with daily output less than 100tons since mid-to-late Aug, and then baked up to 250tons since mid-to-late Sep.

2. Luxi Chemical Group delayed startup of its 100 kt/yr CPL unit due to explosion of its hydrogen peroxide unit on 27 July, which saw outputs in late Sep.

Plant Operation

3. Baling Petrochemical’s line 1 and line 2 were under normal operarion while line 3 was closed, of which the restart time was delayed from post-holiday to mid Oct due to hydrogen peroxide issues.

Domestic producers Jul Aug Sep est.

Operating rate 77.6% 75.2% 74.3%

Production (kt) 91.5 95.0 100.0

China imported 44.1 kt of CPL in Aug, and domestic production totaled around 95.0 kt, so China’s apparent consumption in Aug is 139.0 kt, an increase from Jul. The production in Sep is estimated to be around 100.0 kt.

In Sep, Hubei Sanning ramped up the run rate of its CPL unit and Luxi Chemical Group’s line came on stream. Thus, overall CPL production in China will increase from Aug. Inventory of domestic CPL suppliers is low amid low rates at new lines.

CCFEI Comment

Supply: CPL market supply is expected to increase in the future. Luxi Chemical Group saw outputs and DSM Nanjing’s units will come online in Oct, so market supply showed signs of increasing despite the maintenance abroad in Oct. Generally speaking, CPL market is balanced in the short run but supply will increase in forward market.

Demand: Terminal demand was better. As run rates of downstream nylon chip units were higher to around 75% due to the end of maintenance shutdowns of several units, chip inventory at the producers were at about 5-10 days’ worth. Textile yarn producers were running at around 80-90% capacity, with inventory generally at 15-30-day’s worth. Cord fabric plants run at around 70% capacity. Looking forward, with terminal demand improving, CPL converters are likely to purchase raw materials on a hand-to-mouth base next month and weak purchasing sentiment.

Cost: Raw material market witnessed a firm rangeboud. Asian benzene closed the month at $1,280/ton FOB Korea, and European benzene closed at $1,252/ton FOB Rotterdam. It is expected that raw material support for CPL market will be seen.

To sum up, feedstock market rolls over; demand is passable and supply of low-end materials will move up, while that of high-end ones will tighten up because of maintenance. CPL market is expected to see corrctions in Oct.

Page 4: Nylon Caprolactam Nylon Chips Nylon Filament - CCFEI · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips

China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net September 2013 [PA-6 CHIP]

- 3 -

Nylon Chip Average Price (yuan/ton, $/ton)

Month Up/down Range Prev. Month

Conventional (cash)

Sep ↓50 19,350 19,400

Sep ↑30 20,530 20,500 High-speed (D/A 90 days)

USD ↑20 2,660 2,640

18000

20000

22000

24000

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Conventional High-speed

CPL market saw diverged prices in September, leaving a similar sentiment in nylon chip sector. In supply and demand, producers saw inventory of conventional spinning chips piling up in mid/late Sep, and prices

started to dip lower; while high-end high-speed spinning chips gained higher in tandem with firm USD-based market. Meanwhile, polymer units were running at higher rates and supply was increasing from the earlier days, and buyers were also showing decent trading interest, supporting prices to rebound a bit.

As for homemade nylon-6 chip sector, CPL prices diverged with high-end values firming but low-end ones in a downslide, leaving a big spread in chip prices. Average price for homemade high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips closed higher at 20,530 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days, self-lifting), with those from Zhejiang and South China up by 150 yuan/ton to 21,000-21,200 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days, delivered) and those from Jiangsu and Shandong up by 200 yuan/ton to 19,900-20,300 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days, self-lifting). Downstream textile-yarn producers were showing improved buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips generally gained from $2,620-2,650/ton in early month to $2,650-2,700/ton, with customers buying from hand to mouth.

On the conventional spinning nylon-6 chip market, mainstream talks in East China lost 50 yuan/ton on average to 19,350 yuan/ton (cash), with monofilament grade offered at 19,500-19,700 yuan/ton as high end and fishing net yarn grade at 18,800-19,000 yuan/ton as low end. Participants in downstream fishing net yarn, staple fiber and engineering plastics segments saw low stocks of feedstock, but their buying interest softened citing unfavorable NFY sentiment.

Weekly Spot Average Price (yuan/ton) Week Time Price

Week 1 2Sep–6Sep 20,000

Week 2 9Sep–13Sep 20,000

Week 3 16Sep–20Sep 20,000

Week 4 23Sep–27Sep 20,000

Week 5 29Sep–30Sep 20,000

Monthly Ave. in Sep 20,000

18000

20000

22000

24000

7Dec 18Jan 1Mar 12Apr 24May 5Jul 16Aug 27Sep

In September, prices remained stable for nylon chip but were polarized, with numbers for high-speed spinning chips staying firm but those for conventional spinning chips softening a bit.

Pushed by firm high-end CPL prices and the uptick in Taiwan market, trading values for homemade high-speed spinning semi-dull chips spiraled up, with discussions in Jiangsu/Zhejiang and Shandong markets gaining from 19,800-20,100 to 19,900-20,300 yuan/ton (cash, self-lifting). Prices for high-end goods from Zhejiang and South China also closed higher at 21,000-21,200 yuan/ton, up by 100-200 yuan/ton from early month. In Taiwan market, trading prices gained from $2,630-2,650/ton to $2,650-2,680/ton, with offers higher at $2,700/ton.

As for conventional-spinning market, prices for low-end bright chips retreated from 19,100-19,300 yuan/ton in early month to 18,800-19,000 yuan/ton (cash) by month end, while high-end chips for monofilament use traded stably at 19,500-19,700 yuan/ton citing spot sentiment, but producers were also lowering their offers given selling pressure.

Monthly International Nylon Chip Value Trend Taiwan ($/ton)

Jul Aug Sep Oct est.

2,660 2,640 2,665 ↑

Prices for nylon chip inched up, tracing the gains of high-end CPL, with numbers up from $2,620-2,650/ton of last

month to $2,650-2,670/ton. CPL sentiment is expected to maintain the uptick in October, and prices of nylon chips are

also likely to nudge up in the coming month, which will largely depend on the actual demand in downstream.

Y/T

Weekly Spot Average Prices

Page 5: Nylon Caprolactam Nylon Chips Nylon Filament - CCFEI · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips

China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net September 2013 [PA-6 CHIP]

- 4 -

Statistics on Nylon Chip Imports into China (kt, $/ton) Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Jan-Aug 2013

Origin Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.

Taiwan 31.16 2,704 21.53 2,685 198.08 2,723

Russia 3.75 2,475 3.94 2,443 27.09 2,457

Belgium 2.74 2,654 1.54 2,630 15.67 2,677

Germany 1.55 3,309 1.32 3,112 14.5 3,041

S. Korea 4.89 2,884 4.2 2,777 32.64 2,831

USA 3.6 2,734 3.94 2,681 30.25 2,720

Total 59.34 2,755 48.49 2,725 405.03 2,766

In August 2013, China mainland imported 48,490 tons of nylon-6 chips, down 10,850 tons or 18.3% from July’s 59,340 tons. The average import price in August is at $2,725/ton, down $30/ton from July’s $2,755/ton.

The imports from Chinese Taiwan totaled 21,530 tons in August, down 9630 tons or 30.9% over July’s 31,160 tons and accounting for 44.4% of the total volume, a lower proportion as compared with July’s 52.4%. The average import price for Taiwan-origin cargoes is at $2,685/ton, $19/ton lower than July’s $2,704/ton.

Operation of Nylon Chip Producers in China

In September, run rates of major nylon-6 chip and nylon-6 cord fabric producers were at around 70-80%, with average number above 75-80% based on overall capacity in the industry at 2.15 million tons/yr.

As for new capacity, Tongxiang Fangyuan’s 70kt/yr project is divided into 2 phases, and the first phase of 35kt/yr capacity has come onstream, with a daily output of 80 tons; the second phase will be taken on line in October. The start-up of Hunan Jinbo’s 70kt/yr semi-dull chips unit is delayed. Plant News

As for major producers with capacity above 100kt/yr, Jinjiang Technology ran at 80-85%, Meida and Chang'an Polymer Material at 85% and 60%, witnessing a lower note for run rates. Operation rates at small producers were mainly maintaining at 70-80%. Shandong Fangming restarted its 50kt/yr bright chip unit in the month.

Jun Jul Aug Sep est.

Output (kt) 125 126 134 ↑

According to CCFEI estimate, China produced about 134kt of nylon-6 chips in August 2013, and China’s nylon-6 chip production is expected to increase in September after the restarts of T/A plants.

CCFEI Comment Cost: CPL supply increased this month, and is expected to sustain in October. Holding pessimistic thoughts over

the future market, downstream showed limited buying interest, and producers maintained their values firm, with prices for high-speed spinning chip inching up a bit. Looking forward, CPL supply is likely to expand with new lines on stream, and textile market is expected to show improved demand with NFY producers eyeing on price hikes. Diverged prices are expected to sustain in the short run.

Supply: Buying confidence was decent in early month but later retreated in month-end. Producers saw inventory at 5-8 days’ worth as low end and 12 days’ worth as high end, with run rates mostly at 78%. Inventory was tentatively controllable, but is likely to pile up during the upcoming holidays, so outlook of supply is not so optimistic.

Demand: End-users both at home and abroad kept on showing limited interest for textiles, resulting in a muted offtake volume, and whether producers can carry out the price hikes will depend on further movements. Holding bearish expectations on future trends, buyers were showing limited demand, and NFY prices will post an increase only on the back of bullish end-user markets. As for non-textile products, the profit of cord fabric was decent, and producers may maintain the demand for CPL and chips. However, fishing net yarn makers were yet to follow up citing unfavorable trading volumes and values. All in all, demand was still muted in September as downstream market was bearish and consumers were unable to purchase too much raw materials, and October market is expected to draw the same curve.

In general, the polarization in CPL market will cause a same sentiment for nylon-6 chips, and low-end prices are

likely to keep the downslide while high-end values to sustain the upticks. As for the market fundamentals, the upcoming holidays will go against the de-stocking at polymer plants, and it is also too early to make comment for future demand. So, nylon chip market is expected to range bound if with balanced sale/production sentiment.

Page 6: Nylon Caprolactam Nylon Chips Nylon Filament - CCFEI · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips

China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net Sep 2013 [NFY]

- 5 -

Nylon Filament Average Price (yuan/ton)

1Sep-30Sep Change Price Prev. Month

FDY70D/24F Sep ↑100 23900 23800

DTY70D/24F Sep → 26000 26000

23000

25500

28000

30500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

FDY70D/24F DTY70D/24F

In nylon textile yarn market, cost support strengthened amid continually bouncing-up USD-based market as CPL and nylon chips improved in Sep. So prices from yarn producers were mainly stable-to-firm. Liquidity in terminal textile market edged up in Sep, leading to price surges, but fabric producers saw tight budgets in defaults amid increasing run rates. Therefore, the market saw decent support by ample supply. In non-textile market, prices ceased trending down on higher raw material values. In plant operation, run rates of nylon textile yarn producers inched up from 65-80% to 70-85%. Looking forward, with firm raw material values and improved demand, nylon market is increasingly likely to rebound in Oct.

Weekly Spot Price Week Time FDY70/DTY70

Week 1 2 Sep -6 Sep 23850/26000

Week 2 9 Sep -13 Sep 23900/26000

Week 3 16 Sep -20 Sep 23900/26000

Week 4 22 Sep -27 Sep 23900/26000

Week 5 29 Sep -30 Sep 23900/26000

Monthly Ave. in Sep 23890/26000

23000

26000

29000

30Apr 30May 30Jun 30Jul 30Aug 30Sep

FDY: In Sep, as demand from downstream weaving and warp knitting sectors swelled in line with the raw materials,

nylon producers withdrew some low-leveled nominations amid limited increase in prices slackened by large-amount debts. In plant operation, with most producers producing fine denier yarns, run rate climbed high to 80-90%, leaving inventory at 15-25 days’ worth, which means a decreasing inventory pressure. In Shengze and Jiaxing markets, mainstream semi-dull FDY70D/24F was generally traded at 23,900-24,000 yuan/ton (D/A 180 days) by the month end, firm as a whole and some nominations for Oct at 24,200 yuan/ton (D/A 180 days). As for fine denier yarns, mainstream values for 40D were lower at 26,000-26,500 yuan/ton (D/A 180 days), with those for full-dull ones generally at 26,500-27,500 yuan/ton, cautiously firm.

DTY: In Sep, demand from knit goods market remained moderate because of tight budgets and insufficient orders, so customers purchased on a need-to basis only. SD chip and POY prices were stable-to-firm, so mainstream prices stabilized after ceasing falling. Stock levels at major producers were still at 15-30 days’ worth, while run rates went up to 80-90% and outputs increased. Mainstream prices for high-end DTY70D/24F were still stable at 26,500-27,000 yuan/ton (D/A 180 days) by the month end. Prices for mid-end materials also remained stable at 25,500-26,000 yuan/ton (D/A, 180 days). Low-quality DTY70D/24F stood on floor at 24,500-24,800 yuan/ton (cash), up by 400 yuan/ton. High-end fine-denier 30D/10F softened at 31,000-32,500 yuan/ton.

In cord fabric sector, mainstream prices were at 27,200-29,000 yuan/ton (D/A, delivered), with those in Jiangsu/Zhejiang higher and in Shandong lower. Prices were supported to get raised amid growing raw material values. For monofilament, mainstream prices for low-end 30D were weak at 24,000-24,500 yuan/ton, while some semi-dull ones were offered at 25,500 yuan/ton. For staple fiber, mainstream values for 1.5D were soft at 22,000 yuan/ton, with lower deals at 21,500 yuan/ton. Insipid demand was considered as the main cause for weak price.

International Monthly Prices for Nylon Filament Taiwan FDY70D/24F ($/ton)

Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013

3,170-3,270 3,140-3,210 3,130-3,190

Taiwan: Demand from textile sector was still thin, while the prices of nylon yarns were stable under inventory pressure and run rate was only 60%.

Europe: Demand for knit goods remained tepid but woven fabric improves, while that for weft/warp knitted fabrics

was insufficient and BCF market saw expanding improvement.

Y/T

Y/T

Page 7: Nylon Caprolactam Nylon Chips Nylon Filament - CCFEI · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips

China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net Sep 2013 [NFY]

- 6 -

China Nylon Filament Import Statistics (Unit: ton, $/ton) Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Jan-Aug 2013

Origin Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.

Taiwan 5815 3644 5117 3508 47193 3622

S. Korea 891 4634 964 4481 6798 4623

Malaysia 900 3016 1175 3031 6244 3132

Thailand 133 4328 137 4383 1140 4613

Total 9829 3857 9498 3773 78963 3830

According to Customs Statistics, China mainland imported 9,498 tons of nylon 6 filament yarns in Aug, down by 331 tons from 9,829 tons in Jul 2013, with an average price at $3,773/ton, down by $84/ton from $3,857/ton in Jul 2013. Of them, 5,117 tons came from Chinese Taiwan, 698 tons less than 5,815 tons in Jul 2013 and accounting for 54% of total import volume, with average import price at $3,508/ton, down by $136/ton from $3,644 in Jul. Meanwhile, 964 tons was imported from South Korea, 1,175 tons from Malaysia, and 137 tons from Thailand.

Nylon Filament Industrial News

Plant News

In Sep, run rates at nylon yarn producers inched up to 70%-85%, among which, textile filament producers mainly produced fine denier yarns with operation rate at 80-90%, while non-textile producers ran at a rate of 70%.

Plant news: nylon yarn producers are active in capacity expansion. Xinqin Fiber’s number of spinning position of nylon POY line has increased to 210, meaning the capacity of 44 kt/yr. Shumeier Fiber’s 30 kt/yr nylon POY project will start up between Sep-Oct. This company used to produce spandex. Changle Liheng will add the spinning position of FDY line by 260, totalizing the number to 1,500.

Domestic Jun Jul Aug Sep est.

Output (Kt) 132 135 144 ↑

According to CCFEI statistics, nylon filament production in China is around 144kt in Aug as expected. It is expected that run rates will improve next month and production in Sep may be higher a bit.

CCFEI Comment

In Sep, as upstream CPL and nylon chips saw prices edging up, nylon yarn values flattened out amid swelling cost pressure at producers. Nylon textile yarn witnessed limited bounce-backs, with some stable and others up mainly by 100-200 yuan/ton only. Non-textile prices were modest and only cord fabric rebounded, with those for staple fiber and fishing-net stable. Looking forward, the factors affecting nylon yarn prices are as follows:

Cost: CPL and nylon chip markets were firm, which contributed to the stabilization in nylon yarn market after downslides. But CPL and nylon chip prices are expected to be stable in Oct amid ample supply of CPL and with higher feedstock costs, the profit margins in nylon yarn industry will be squeezed further to breakeven point or even negative territory, so the expectation of prices climbing will last.

Supply: Buying interest from downstream textile and non-textile sectors improved a bit in Sep, making run rates inch up. However, Nylon producers with inventory at 15-30 days’ worth had limited increase in running enthusiasm. Furthermore, with limited improvements in margins at nylon producers despite higher raw material values, it’s expected that overall run rates will be unlikely to go up in Oct. Meanwhile, some new nylon plants had plans for production, so the total may surpass the expectation still. In non-textile sectors, with moderate margins, producers will run units at 70% capacities despite limited inventory.

Demand: Because of high inventory and tight budgets, nylon converters became cautiously positive about replenishments, especially for large-volume ones and purchasement on a need-to basis saw only limited improvement, leading to insufficient sales in textile yarn market and barely balanced sales/production performance at the yarn producers on the back of increasing run rates. It’s expected that the industry is cautiously positive about demand outlook under better economic conditions. In non-textile nylon market, demand for staple fiber and fishing net yarn will be moderate, and that for cord fabric is estimated as passable, so restocking sentiment will remain steady on the whole.

To sum up, nylon yarn market rebounded as values for CPL and nylon chips inched up. It is expected that prices for major textile and non-textile products will unlikely go up broadly amid limited improvements in raw material market, only partly instead. On the supply-demand side, growing run rate at nylon producers in Sep and ample supply on the back of the start-up of new plants should have been unfavorable for sale/production performance and inventory digestion. Meantime, cautious demand left small improvements on sales/production performance as a whole. Generally, nylon market will be likely to stabilize because of high cost pressure and modest supply/demand fundamental in Oct, while some specs will see prices inching up under cost pressure.

Page 8: Nylon Caprolactam Nylon Chips Nylon Filament - CCFEI · 2013-10-24 · buying interest, and producers were eyeing on a hike. In Taiwan, high-speed spinning nylon-6 semi-dull chips

Disclaimer:Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither responsibility nor liability will be accepted by China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network (CCFEI) for commercial decisions claimed to have been based on the content of the report.

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