oakland chamber poll powerpoint
TRANSCRIPT
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Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce Breakfast
October 2, 2013
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Methodology
Telephone survey of Likely November 2014 voters in
Oakland
500 completed interviews
City-wide margin of error of +/- 4.73 percentage
points
Oversampling in Council Districts 2, 4, & 6 in order to
reach a sample size of 95 in each of these districts
Margin of error in Districts 2, 4, 6 +/- 10.0
percentage points
Conducted September 24 29, 2013
Trained, professional interviewers
As with any opinion research, the
release of selected figures from this
report without the analysis that
explains their meaning would be
damaging to EMC. Therefore, EMCreserves the right to correct any
misleading release of this data in
any medium through the release of
correct data or analysis.
Please note that due to rounding,
percentages may not add up to
exactly 100%
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Key Findings: Quality of Life in Oakland
Direction of the City
Only one-quarter of voters feel the City is headed in the right direction
Over half feel less safe than they did a year ago
Even so, voters like Oakland and think its a good place to live
Some of the best things about living in Oakland are the culture, diversity,
and the weather The worst thing about living in Oakland is the crime
Voters in Oakland frequently ride BART, visit parks and open spaces, libraries,and shop/dine in Uptown and Downtown
Voters are generally favorable toward new business (national retail stores
too!), and encouraging companies to move to Oakland Support for renewing Measure Y is below necessary threshold, but voters are
very favorable toward components of measure (indicating that they just mightnot know that much about it)
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Key Findings: Quans destiny
Mayor Jean Quansvitals are weak
One-quarter of voters feel favorable toward her,
compared to almost two-thirds who feel unfavorable
(and her ratings have gotten worse since last year)
More than three-quarters of voters give her anegative job rating
Less than one-fifth of voters would reelect her if the
election were today
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Voter Mood
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Just over one-quarter (27%) of voters think the City is headed
in the right direction
Do you think things in the City of Oakland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel
that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? (Q6)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Right direction Wrong track
47%
27%
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
The number of voters who feel unsafe continues to rise
Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland than you did a year or two ago, or would you say
you feel less safe? (Q7)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Safer Less Safe
55%
13%
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Voters in District 6 are most pessimistic
27% 28% 22% 24%
25%35%
24%12%
47%37%
54%
64%
Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6
Right direction Don't know Wrong track
13% 12% 13% 13%
32% 39% 30% 29%
55%49%
57% 59%
Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6
Safer Same/Don't know Less safe
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Priority Issues
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80%
75%
69%
57%
44%
39%
38%
35%
35%
34%
28%
18%
11%
12%
20%
35%
30%
39%
33%
34%
31%
44%
36%
33%
4%
3%
4%
2%
10%
6%
11%
6%
22%
4%
12%
6%
2%
3%
4%
4%
11%
9%
9%
10%
8%
10%
10%
21%
4%
6%
4%
2%
6%
7%
9%
15%
4%
8%
14%
22%
Public education (Q19)
Police services (Q11)
Economic development and job creation (Q20)
Road repair and maintenance (Q13)
Preventing illegal dumping (Q15)
Libraries (Q12)
Neighborhood blight (Q17)
Graffiti prevention and removal (Q16)
Senior services (Q14)
Parks and recreation (Q9)
Fire services (Q10)
Festivals and cultural events (Q18)
Great need Some need (Should be less/DK) Little need No real need
Eighty percent of voters say public education is in GREAT need of
additional funding
I am going to read a short list of public services in Oakland. For each one, please tell me if you think there is a
great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for that
service. (Q9-Q20)
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78%
81%
64%
67%
88%
88%
78%
80%
92%
88%
66%
66%
4%
2%
12%
11%
3%
3%
6%
4%
2%
1%
22%
18%
18%
17%
24%
22%
9%
9%
16%
15%
6%
11%
12%
16%
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
Parksand
recreation
(Q9)
Fire
serv
ices
(Q10)
Police
services
(Q11)
Libraries
(Q12)
Road
repairand
maintena
nce(Q13)
Senior
services
(Q14)
Great/some need (Less/DK) Little/no need
Need for police funding is same as last year, but intensity has
increased
I am going to read a short list of public services in Oakland. For each one, please tell me if you think there is a
great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for that
service. (Q9-Q20)
*In 2012, 79% of voters rated public education as VERY important to the future of Oakland
(66% great need, 22% some need)
(75% great need, 12% some need)
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Attitudes toward business
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53%
45%
38%
28%
26%
34%
32%
38%
4%
4%
6%
7%
10%
12%
14%
20%
7%
5%
11%
8%
Requiring affordable housing be part of
any new housing development project
(Q24)
Offering tax incentives to encourage
companies to move to Oakland (Q25)
Allowing more national retail stores to
locate in Oakland (Q22)
Allowing more parking structures to be
built to accommodate new
development (Q23)
Strongly favor Somewhat favor (DK) Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose
Voters are favorable toward affordable housing, and bringing new
business to Oakland
Next some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat
favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose(Q22-Q25)
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
70%
58%
66%
72%
79%
88%
6%
5%
7%
6%
4%
3%
25%
36%
28%
23%
17%
10%
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
A
llowingmore
nationalretail
sto
restolocatein
O
akland(Q22)*
Allowingmore
parkingstructures
tobebuiltto
accommodate
newdevelopment
(Q23)
Offeringtax
incentivesto
encourage
companiesto
movetoOakland
(Q25)
Total Favor (DK) Total Oppose
Voters are more favorable to national retail stores (rather than
chain stores)
Next some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat
favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose(Q22-Q25)
*In 2012, this item read Allowing more chain stores to locate in Oakland.
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
70%
61%
67%
84%
66%62%
65%
73%
79%
83%
79%
74%
79%
77%
81%
89%
6%
9%
6%
7%
7%2%
6%
7%
4%
1%
5%
4%
2%
5%
2%
25%
30%
27%
10%
28%35%
29%
20%
17%
17%
20%
20%
17%
21%
14%
9%
Citywide
CCD 2
CCD 4
CCD 6
CitywideCCD 2
CCD 4
CCD 6
Citywide
CCD 2
CCD 4
CCD 6
Citywide
CCD 2
CCD 4
CCD 6
Allowing
morenational
retailstores
tolocatein
Oakland
(Q22)
Allowing
moreparkin
g
structuresto
bebuiltto
accommodate
new
developmen
t
(Q23)
Re
quiring
aff
ordable
housingbe
partofany
new
housing
development
proj
ect(Q24)
Offeringtax
incentivesto
encourage
companiesto
moveto
Oakland
(Q25)
Total Favor (DK) Total Oppose
District 6 is especially favorable toward national retail stores
Next some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat
favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose(Q22-Q25)
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Quality of life in Oakland
O kl d di it th d lt b t thi
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Oaklands diversity, weather, and culture are best things
about living here
23%
19%
11%
9%
6%
5%
5%
4%
2%
1%
3%
8%
1%
3%
Diversity
Weather
Proximity/Location
The people
Love living here
Cultural events
It's beautiful
Affordable/Home ownership
Restaurants/stores
Public transit
Nothing good to say
Other
No/None/Nothing
Don't Know
What would you say is the BEST thing about living in Oakland?(OPEN ENDED, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE) (Q4)
M th t thi d l t d i t thi b t
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
More than two-thirds volunteered crime as worst thing about
living in Oakland
69%
6%
3%
2%2%
2%
1%
1%
1%10%
2%
1%
Crime
City Government
Lack of police
City finances
Bad reputation
Poverty
Everything
Drugs
ParkingOther
No/None/Nothing
(DK)
What would you say is the WORST thing about living in Oakland?(OPEN ENDED, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE) (Q4)
S t t f t O kl d i ll t d
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Seventy percent of voters say Oakland is an excellent or good
place to live
21% 49% 2% 20% 8%
Excellent Good (Don't know) Only fair Poor
How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair,
or poor place to live? (Q8)
70%
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Voters in District 2 are especially happy to live in Oakland
21%
31%
25%
14%
49%
45%
45%
44%
2%
1%
2%
1%
20%
17%
19%
28%
8%
5%
8%
14%
Citywide
CCD 2
CCD 4
CCD 6
Excellent Good (Don't know) Only fair Poor
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Support is mixed for keeping local sports teams in the area
Extremely
important, 29%
Very important,
21%
Somewhat
important, 24%
Not at all
important, 24%
Thinking about the future of Oakland, how important is it to you that we keep the As, Raiders,
and Warriors in Oaklandextremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at
all important? (Q21)
Important
50%
Not
Important
48%
Nearly two thirds of voters in District 6 support keeping
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Nearly two-thirds of voters in District 6 support keeping
teams here
51% 48% 48%
63%
1% 2%
2%
48% 50% 52%
35%
Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6
Somewhat/Not at all
(DK)
Extremely/very
important
Thinking about the future of Oakland, how important is it to you that we keep the As, Raiders,
and Warriors in Oaklandextremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at
all important? (Q21)
Many voters have experience with taking BART visiting parks
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Many voters have experience with taking BART, visiting parks,
and shopping/dining in Downtown & Uptown
M th h lf (52%) f t id th h t k BART t l t 12
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15%
11%
36%
15%
33%
25%
9%
11%
11%
15%
15%
16% 6%
23%
32%
19%
40%
26%
32%
52%
46%
34%
29%
26%
21%
Rode BART (Q54)
Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)
Read the Oakland Tribune online or in print (Q53)
Shopped or dined in Downtown Oakland (Q52)
Used Oakland public libraries or their services (Q48)
Shopped or dined in Uptown (Q44)
Never 1 or 2 times (DK) 3 to 12 times More than 12 times
In the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household
member has done each of the following activities? (Q40-Q57)
More than half (52%) of voters said they have taken BART at least 12
times in the last year; 46% have visited a park or open space area
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
32%
23%
29%
26%
85%
55%
15%
26%
24%
25%
5%
20%
35%
38%
36%
35%
4%
19%
17%
13%
12%
12%
6%
5%
Hosted a visitor for an overnight stay (Q56)
Shopped or dined in Jack London Square (Q43)
Flown into or out of Oakland Airport (Q57)
Attended a cultural event in Oakland (Q45)
Used Oakland senior services (Q49)
Attended an As game (Q40)
Never 1 or 2 times (DK) 3 to 12 times More than 12 times
In the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household
member has done each of the following activities? (Q40-Q57)
Fifty-five percent of voters have never been to an As game
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58%
67%
53%
82%
80%
85%
24%
20%
26%
9%
13%
12%
14%
10%
18%
6%
6%
2%
4%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
Visited the Oakland Zoo (Q51)
Used services in person at Oakland City Hall (Q50)
Attended Oaklands First Fridays Art Festival (Q55)
Attended a Raiders game (Q41)
Attended a Warriors game (Q42)
Attend the Childrens Holiday parade in Oakland
(Q46)
Never 1 or 2 times (DK) 3 to 12 times More than 12 times
In the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household
member has done each of the following activities? (Q40-Q57)
Attendance at NFL and NBA games is low
Voters under 50 are more likely to ride BART and shop/dine
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50%
41%
38%
26%
Rode BART (Q54)
Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)
Read the Oakland Tribune online or in print (Q53)
Shopped or dined in downtown Oakland (Q52)
67%
56%
40%
31%
Rode BART (Q54)
Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)
Shopped or dined in downtown Oakland (Q52)
Used Oakland public libraries or their services (Q48)
Voters under 50 are more likely to ride BART, and shop/dine
downtown
% Who does each activity frequently
18-49 years old (44%)
50-64 years old (31%)
49%
34%
29%
25%
Read the Oakland Tribune online or in print (Q53)
Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)
Rode BART (Q54)
Used Oakland public libraries or their services (Q48)
Over 65 (25%)
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Attitudes toward public safety
Support for Measure Y renewal is at 48% but components of
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48%
75%
84%
76%
57%
21%
4%
4%
5%
13%
30%
22%
13%
20%
30%
Measure Y renewal
Raises revenue to hire more police officers (Q27)
Expand violence prevention social programs for youth
(Q28)
Increase paramedics and emergency fire personnel
(Q29)
Reauthorizes the PT rate of $88/yr for a single family
residential property and maintains the 8.5% comm.
pkg surcharge (Q30)
Total Yes (Undecided/Don't know) Total No
Support for Measure Y renewal is at 48%, but components of
measure are popular
There are a few different components to Measure Y. I will read some of those components and please tell meif you would vote yes to approve or no to reject each one. (Q27-Q30) (DO NOT RANDOMIZE)
As you may know, in 2004 Oakland voters approved a parking lot and parcel tax, called Measure Y to reduce
crime and increase public safety. Based on what you know now, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject
a renewal of Measure Y at the current tax rates? (Q26)
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More than half (55%) of voters in District 4 support Measure Y
48% 45%55%
43%
21% 27%
22%
19%
30% 28%23%
39%
Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6
Total No
(Und)
Total Yes
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Attitudes toward elected officials
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17%
23%
26%
18%
75%
69%
67%
57%
7%
8%
7%
26%
Oakland City Auditor Courtney Ruby (Q33)
Oakland City Council Member Pat Kernighan (Q34)
Oakland City Council Member Libby Schaaf (Q35)
Oakland City Council Member Desley Brooks (Q36)
Favorable (DK) Unfavorable
NowIm going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.
(Q31-Q36)
Local leaders mostly unknown citywide
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23%
48%
26%
54%
18%
31%
69%
40%
67%
39%
57%
42%
8%
12%
7%
8%
26%
27%
Citywide
CCD 2
Citywide
CCD 4
Citywide
CCD 6
OaklandCity
Council
Me
mberPat
Ke
rnighan
(Q34)
OaklandCity
Council
MemberLibby
Schaaf(Q35)
OaklandCity
Council
MemberDesley
Brooks(Q36)
Favorable (DK) Unfavorable
NowIm going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.
(Q31-Q36)
But are popular within their districts
Three-quarters of voters give the City Council a negative job
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14%
13%
11%
20%
11%
11%
11%
7%
75%
76%
78%
74%
Citywide
CCD 2
CCD 4
CCD 6
Excellent/Good (DK) Only Fair/Poor
Three quarters of voters give the City Council a negative job
rating; ratings similar across the City
How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing? (Q38)
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24%
36%
14%
11%
62%
53%
2013
2012
Favorable Never Heard/DK Unfavorable
Mayor Quans favorable rating continues to worsen
NowIm going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.
Mayor Jean Quan
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24%
28%
26%
29%
14%
12%
15%
11%
62%
60%
60%
60%
Citywide
CCD 2
CCD 4
CCD 6
Favorable Never Heard/DK Unfavorable
Little difference in her favorable rating by District
NowIm going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.
Mayor Jean Quan
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4% 16% 4% 32% 45%
Excellent Good (DK) Only Fair Poor
More than three-quarters (77%) give Quan a negative job rating
How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? (Q37)
77%
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19%
21%
17%
22%
4%
3%
2%
77%
79%
80%
76%
Citywide
CCD 2
CCD 4
CCD 6
Excellent/Good (DK) Only Fair/Poor
Voters in District 4 are especially unimpressed
How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? (Q37)
More than two-thirds (69%) of voters would elect someone else if the election were
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More than two thirds (69%) of voters would elect someone else if the election were
today, including nearly half who said definitely someone else
As you may know, Jean Quan is running for re-election as Mayor of Oakland. If the election were held today
would you definitely vote for Quan, probably vote for Quan, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote
for someone else? (Q39)
5%
13%
23%
46%
13%
Definitely Quan
Probably Quan
Probably Else
Definitely Else
(Dont know/not sure)
18%
69%
Q l i l h h h Ci
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Quans reelect is low throughout the City
18% 21%23% 23%
13%
20%10% 7%
69%
59%
67% 70%
Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6
Reelect Quan (DK/Refused) Else
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24% 20% 18%
15%
4%13%
62%
77%
69%
Favorable Rating Job Rating Re-Elect
Negative
for Quan
Neutral
Positive
for Quan
By every measure, Quansvitals are weak
O kl d M l f bilit th h th
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Oakland Mayoral favorability, through the years
24%
30%
81%
58%
14%
8%
4%
8%
62%
63%
14%
35%
Quan (2013)
Dellums (2009)
Brown (2000)
Harris (1997)
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable
Source: EMC past polling
O kl d M l j b ti th h th
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Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992
Oakland Mayoral job rating, through the years
20%
73%
36%
4%
4%
3%
77%
23%
62%
Quan (2013)
Brown (2000)
Harris (1997)
Excellent/good (DK) Only fair/poor
Source: EMC past polling
O kl d M l l t th h th
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Oakland Mayoral reelect, through the years
18%
18%
33%
13%
13%
20%
69%
69%
48%
Quan
(2013)
Dellums
(2009)
Harris
(1997)
Reelect (DK/Refused) Else
Source: EMC past polling
Voter demographics
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Voter demographics
45% Men
55% Women
Lived in Oakland
Less than 2
years (1%)
2-5 years
(12%)
6-10 years
(14%)
11-20 years
(19%)
More than
20 years
(53%)
Employed 57%
Unemployed 7%
Retired
27%Other 9% 43% of those
employed work
in Oakland
(25% of
electorate)
71% Democrats
6% Republicans
23% NPP/Others
44% are 18-49 years old
31% are 50-64
25% are over 65
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Discussion