Obama

• Unique background• Questions about his background• Well Educated• Harvard• Ward Politics in Chicago• Community Organizer• State Senate victory without a race

Obama

• Run for Congress in 2000Defeated in Democrat Primary31% of voteable to keep Senate seat

State Senate Career 1996-2004Help from Senate PresidentNever had serious race

Obama

• United States Senate Race– Wins multi-candidate race– Republican forced to withdraw after records

released (Jack Ryan)

• Convention Speech 2004– Instant national celebrity

Obama

• United States Senate– Talked bi-partisan but recognized the groups

needed for the presidency– Daschle’s chief of staff– Raised $$$$ for Democrat candidates

• Decision to run for President– There might not BE another chance– CHANGE

Hillary Clinton

• Can anyone defeat Hillary Clinton?

Early Actions

• Fundraising• Iraq War• “New Campaign”• Learn a lot in 2007• “Why I am running for President• CHANGE!!!!!• Early Debates

Early Results• Strategy• Hillary- overwhelming force win early and run

the table• Invested BIG in Iowa• LOST• New Hampshire comeback• War of attrition• Different strategy– PARTY RULES

Clinton vs. Obama• South Carolina–Bill Clinton hurts campaign–Black vote strongly with Obama now

• Super Tuesday– Split Verdict

• Clinton out of money

Clinton vs. Obama

• Caucus States go with OBAMA big time• Even wins in CA, OH, TX not enough for

Clinton• Super Delegates slowing, but solidly going to

Obama• Clinton finally gives in• Agreement to end her campaign debt

• Obama improves as a candidate• Gets better at debates• Speeches are the key• Survives difficulties• New Money, New Volunteers, builds on the

Howard Dean run from 2004• Media Darling…even more than McCain

McCain• Early Front-runner– Spent too much…too broad– Traveled alone– No to Iowa….on to New Hampshire

• Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, Huckabee…• Thompson

Big 3

Results

• Iowa• New Hampshire• Michigan• South Carolina• Florida- key

McCain vs. Obama

• McCain fails to take advantage of time• Does not build organization• Relies on tactics as opposed to strategy• Debate challenge and Public Finance

challenges fail• Obama continues to build money and

organization• Early Voting, more states to compete

McCain vs. Obama

• New States– FL, OH, PA of course– Now…

• NC, VA, IN, GA, TN, LA, AR,….makes McCain spend money he does not have…

• Most often on TV where McCain cant…FL

VP

• Obama picks safe…older white guy…with foreign policy

• Lieberman was his choice, feared a floor fight

• McCain takes a chance to gain womens vote and shake up the race– Good-bad…

Obama vs. McCain

• Economic Crisis (Sept 15) Lehman Brothers– Different reactions– “fundamentals of the economy are strong”

• PA, Michigan?

• McBUSH

• Debates reveal nothing

• Democrats have better machine for 1st time

Obama- 365-173…FL, NC, VA, CO, NM, NV, IA, IN, OH

What we learned?

• America not racist• Democrats compete in all 50 states• Emergence of the internet• Return to person to person contact• Get in race early…organize, learn…• WHY YOU ARE RUNNING for PRESIDENT!• Early Voting• MONEY, MONEY, MONEY

• RE-ALIGNMENT?

Democrat Gains 2008• Democrat Republican

• White Vote 43% (+2) 55%• Black Vote 95%(+7) 4%• Hispanic 67% (+7) 31%

OBAMA

• Approval…falling

• 46%-53% disapprove• High Mark was 69%-26%

• Health Care• Stimulus• Debt• Big Government…• Where is transparency?

American Voter

•White 74% (-3)•Black 13% (+2)•Hispanic 9% (+1)• other 4%

Trends

• Fewer White Voters– 1976 9 of 10 voters– 2008 3 of 4 voters

• Hispanic Voters going Democrat– Influential in more states

• Youth Vote (18-29)- up 12 pts to 66% Democrat

Trends

• New Voters made up 1 of 10 voters– 69% Democrat

• Male Vote shrunk from 55 to 48% for Republicans

• Wealthy Voters up 8% to 49-49

Interesting

• Wealth is UP in 2008

• Under $50k 45% now 38%• 50-100k 37% now 36%• Over 100k 18% now 26%

• Wealth did increase…with no inflation