observations of em precursors of earthquakes from ... · observations of em precursors of...
TRANSCRIPT
SCEC-CSEP Workshop on
Testing External Forecasts and Predictions
Los Angeles, May 7-9, 2013
Observations of EM Precursors
of Earthquakes from
Magnetometers and EQLs .
.
Presented by : Jorge Heraud [email protected] .
Authors : Jorge Heraud (1), Victor Centa (1)
Daniel Menendez(1), Neils Vilchez(1)
Tom Bleier (2), Clark Dunson (2)
(1) Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima, Peru
(2) QuakeFinder, Palo Alto, CA
EQLs ? (Pre-seismic, of course)
PRE-SEISMIC EQLs
The Lima Mw 8.9 (9.5 ?) EQ
October 28, 1746
Preseismic EQLs were observed by the captain
in charge of the prison and by prisoners doing
forced labor at San Lorenzo Is., an estimated
2 km from the epicenter, on October 7, 1746,
21 days before the EQ.
CASE # 1
Colonial times prison at San Lorenzo Is.
where preseismic EQLs where reported
On October 7, 1746, 21 days before the
M 8.9-9.5 (?)Mega-earthquake
COSEISMIC EQLs
The Pisco, Peru Mw 8.0 EQ
August 15, 2007
caused EQLs to be observed by literally tens
of thousands of people from ~100 km south to
~250 km north of the epicenter, locally at the
time of the EQ. Time stamped, digital color
video evidence obtained at PUCP.
CASE # 2
PRE-SEISMIC EQL
The Lima Ml 4.3 EQ
July 29, 2012, 12:30 LT
EQLs were reported above San Lorenzo Is.
on July 27, 2012, 22:35 LT ~38 hours
before the EQ by a highly qualified eye
witness. The epicenter was 2 km away.
CASE # 3
CASE EQLs OBSERVED EARTHQUAKE TIMING AND DISTANCE ------- --------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------
# DATE LOCAL TYPE DATE LOCAL MAG. LEAD EPICENTER
TIME TIME TIME ---------------- --------- ---------------- ---------------- -------- ------------- ------------ ---------------------- 1 1746-1007 02:30 Pre-seismic 1746-1028 22:30 8.9 (est.) 21 days ~2 km NE
2 2007-0815 18:41 Co-seismic 2007-0815 18:41 8.0 none ~160 km SSE
3 2012-0727 22:30 Pre-seismic 2012-0729 12:30 4.3 38 hours ~2 km NE
Observed EQLs and their
relation to earthquakes,
for San Lorenzo Is.
Lima, Peru
PULSES ?
(Magnetometers, of course)
CASE # 1
AN EARTHQUAKE WAS “PREDICTED” ONE
WEEK BEFORE THE EQ OCCURED
- EM pulses occured on October 7, 2010 and continuously recorded.
- EM pulses were first observed, after processing the recorded data,
on October 15 and communicated to our research partners,
QuakeFinder on the same day.
- The possibility of the occurence of the EQ was comunicated to the
Rector (President) and 3 vicerectors of PUCP via email on
October 18, 5 days before the EQ, with the following content:
“..we think a medium size earthquake will occur near our site in
Los Palos, Tacna, Peru, on October 22 or 23”.
- The Ml 4.2 Earthquake occurred 75 km west of our site on October 22
at 3 am LT.
- If the data had been observed earlier, lead time would have been14 days
CASE # 1 (continued)
ANOTHER EARTHQUAKE WAS OBSERVED
ALMOST TWO YEARS LATER WITH THE
SAME EPICENTER AND AZIMUTH OF THE
EM PULSES
- EM pulses occured on September 3-4, 2012, data recorded.
- EM pulses were first observed, after processing the data,
after the EQ had occured.
- The Ml 4.3 Earthquake occurred 75 km west of our site on
September 15 at 10:39 am LT, the epicenter was 400 m
from the October 22, 2010 epicenter.
- Azimuth of the EM pulses was 1.4° off from of the EQ azimuth.
Monopolar pulses that had been recorded
October 6 and 7, 2010 at the Los Palos,
Tacna, Peru site, were observed October 15
and an alert sent cober 18.
CASE # 2
FIRST CASE OF TRIANGULATION OF TWO EQs
TWO EARTHQUAKES, 8 DAYS APPART
(subcases A and B in the next slides)
OCCURED ON APRIL 04 AND 12, 2013.
THEIR EM PULSES WERE OBSERVED AT TWO
MAGNETOMETER SITES, 55.6 km APPART
4 AND 10 DAYS, RESPECTIVELY,
BEFORE THE EQs OCCURED.
-.
(A) POST OCCURRENCE
OBSERVATION
TRIANGULATION OF PULSES FROM
TWO MAGNETOMETERS 55.6 km APPART
Earthquake of April 04, 2013
EM pulses recorded March 20, 2013 (before the April 04 EQ)
at AUCALLAMA: Lat 14° 22’ 34.05” S
Lon 75° 41’ 22.61” W
SAN LORENZO: Lat 12° 05’ 3.63” S
Lon 77° 12’ 46.56” W
Azimuth at:
AUCALLAMA
MARCH 20
2013
Azimuth at:
SAN LORENZO
MARCH 20
2013
AUCALLAMA
SAN LORENZO Is.
INSTITUTO DE RADIOASTRONOMIA
PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA
DEL PERU
Signals received:
EM : 2013-0320
SEISMIC : 2013-0404
Difference: 14 days
Magnitude: Ml 4.1
(A)
55.6
km
(B) POST OCCURRENCE
OBSERVATION
TRIANGULATION OF PULSES FROM
TWO MAGNETOMETERS 55.6 km APPART
Earthquake of April 12, 2013
EM Pulses recorded April 02, 2013 (before the April 12 EQ)
at AUCALLAMA: Lat 14° 22’ 34.05” S
Lon 75° 41’ 22.61” W
SAN LORENZO: Lat 12° 05’ 3.63” S
Lon 77° 12’ 46.56” W
Azimuth at:
AUCALLAMA
APRIL 02
2013
Azimuth at:
SAN LORENZO
APRIL 02
2013
AUCALLAMA
SAN LORENZO
INSTITUTO DE RADIOASTRONOMIA
PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA
DEL PERU
Signals received:
EM : 2013- 0402
SEISMIC : 2013 -0412
DIFFERENCE: 10 days
Magnitude Ml : 3.8
(B)
THANK YOU
SPONSORS !
QuakeFinder Inc. (California, USA)
Telefónica del Perú S.A.A. (Peru)
Trimble Navigation Ltd. (California, USA)
Site hosts (Peru) (Edith Maldonado, Renato Casaretto, Jorge Mamani, Municipio de Ite, Cesar Biondi,
Marina del Peru, Julio Campos, Juan Monroy, Humberto Peña, Elias Alparcana)