obuchi miami2015 english

8/9/2019 Obuchi Miami2015 English

1/18

Venezuela's economic results of 2014

The economy went into recession even when oil prices averaged US$100

PIB Var% PI

General

Oil related activities

Non-oil related activities

Mining

Manufacturing

Electricity and waterConstruction

Trade and repair services

Transport and storage

Communications

Financial institutions and insurance

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GDP Growth Rate (quarterly)

Source: BCV


2/18


Key sectors in recession

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2010 2011 2012 2013 201

Manufacturing GDP (quaterly)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Construction GDP (quaterly)

Manufacturing and construction employ about 20% of the workforce

Source: BCV, INE, ODH Grupo Consultor


3/18

If we look back in time...

In 2013, the per capita GDP was similar to the one from 1974 and

Source: BCV, Menpet, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, ODH Grupo Consultor

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

1

9 5 8

1

9 6 1

1

9 6 4

1

9 6 7

1

9 7 0

1

9 7 3

1

9 7 6

1

9 7 9

1

9 8 2

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 8

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 4

1

9 9 7

2

0 0 0

2

0 0 3

2

0 0 6

2

0 0 9

2

0 1 2

G D P

p e r c a p i t a

( M M B

s F , 1 9 9

7 c o n s t a n t p r i c e s )

Real GDP per capita 2013 real GDP per capita Venezuela's oil basket price


4/18


Inflation continued to grow

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

E n e 2 0 0 9

M a r 2 0 0 9

M a y 2 0 0 9

J u l 2 0 0 9

S e p 2 0 0 9

N o v 2 0 0 9

E n e 2 0 1 0

M a r 2 0 1 0

M a y 2 0 1 0

J u l 2 0 1 0

S e p 2 0 1 0

N o v 2 0 1 0

E n e 2 0 1 1

M a r 2 0 1 1

M a y 2 0 1 1

J u l 2 0 1 1

S e p 2 0 1 1

N o v 2 0 1 1

E n e 2 0 1 2

M a r 2 0 1 2

M a y 2 0 1 2

J u l 2 0 1 2

S e p 2 0 1 2

N o v 2 0 1 2

E n e 2 0 1 3

M a r 2 0 1 3

M a y 2 0 1 3

J u l 2 0 1 3

S e p 2 0 1 3

N o v 2 0 1 3

E n e 2 0 1 4

M a r 2 0 1 4

M a y 2 0 1 4

J u l 2 0 1 4

Annualized inflation (INPC)

sep-14 64,1%

oct-14 63,9%

nov-14 63,7%

Source: BCV


5/18


Food inflation approached the 3 digits

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

E n e 2 0 0 9

M a r 2 0 0 9

M a y 2 0 0 9

J u l 2 0 0 9

S e p 2 0 0 9

N o v 2 0 0 9

E n e 2 0 1 0

M a r 2 0 1 0

M a y 2 0 1 0

J u l 2 0 1 0

S e p 2 0 1 0

N o v 2 0 1 0

E n e 2 0 1 1

M a r 2 0 1 1

M a y 2 0 1 1

J u l 2 0 1 1

S e p 2 0 1 1

N o v 2 0 1 1

E n e 2 0 1 2

M a r 2 0 1 2

M a y 2 0 1 2

J u l 2 0 1 2

S e p 2 0 1 2

N o v 2 0 1 2

E n e 2 0 1 3

M a r 2 0 1 3

M a y 2 0 1 3

J u l 2 0 1 3

S e p 2 0 1 3

N o v 2 0 1 3

E n e 2 0 1 4

M a r 2 0 1 4

M a y 2 0 1 4

J u l 2 0 1 4

Annualized Food inflation (INPC)

sep-14 93,7%

oct-14 94,6%

nov-14 92,8%

Source: BCV


6/18


After a 12 year oil boom, the price of oil began to fall ...

Source: Menpet

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

J a n - 9 9

J u n - 9 9

N o v - 9 9

A p r - 0 0

S e p - 0 0

F e b - 0 1

J u l - 0 1

D e c - 0 1

M a y - 0 2

O c t - 0 2

M a r - 0 3

A u g - 0 3

J a n - 0 4

J u n - 0 4

N o v - 0 4

A p r - 0 5

S e p - 0 5

F e b - 0 6

J u l - 0 6

D e c - 0 6

M a y - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

M a r - 0 8

A u g - 0 8

J a n - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

N o v - 0 9

A p r - 1 0

S e p - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

M a y - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

M a r - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

Venezuela’s oil basket price (US$)


7/18


...and oil exports began to fall...

Source: BCV, Menpet, ODH Grupo Consultor

* Note: the 2014 figure is an annual estimate of ODH Grupo Consultor.

22,1 28,57 37,01 50,46 60,19 67,47 86,49 57,01 71,97 101,06 103,42 98,08 8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2

B i l l i o n U S $

Oil exports Non-oil exports Venezuela's oil basket price (US$/barrel)


8/18


...and imports also began to fall

Source: BCV, ODH Grupo Consultor

* Note: the 2014 figure is an annual estimate of ODH Grupo Consultor.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2

B i l l i o n U S $

Total imports


9/18


International Reserves remain fairly low

Source: BCV

* Defined by Rafael Ramírez (Minci, 10.18.2013).

19.808

Oct 24, 2003

43.127

Dic 31, 2008

22

Febr

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 2 / 0 1 / 2 0 0 3

1 5 / 0 4 / 2 0 0 3

3 0 / 0 7 / 2 0 0 3

0 5 / 1 1 / 2 0 0 3

1 6 / 0 2 / 2 0 0 4

0 1 / 0 6 / 2 0 0 4

1 0 / 0 9 / 2 0 0 4

2 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 0 4

0 4 / 0 4 / 2 0 0 5

1 8 / 0 7 / 2 0 0 5

2 5 / 1 0 / 2 0 0 5

0 2 / 0 2 / 2 0 0 6

1 8 / 0 5 / 2 0 0 6

3 1 / 0 8 / 2 0 0 6

0 8 / 1 2 / 2 0 0 6

2 3 / 0 3 / 2 0 0 7

1 0 / 0 7 / 2 0 0 7

1 8 / 1 0 / 2 0 0 7

2 8 / 0 1 / 2 0 0 8

1 3 / 0 5 / 2 0 0 8

2 2 / 0 8 / 2 0 0 8

2 7 / 1 1 / 2 0 0 8

1 2 / 0 3 / 2 0 0 9

2 6 / 0 6 / 2 0 0 9

0 5 / 1 0 / 2 0 0 9

1 5 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

3 0 / 0 4 / 2 0 1 0

1 2 / 0 8 / 2 0 1 0

1 9 / 1 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 8 / 0 2 / 2 0 1 1

1 3 / 0

6 / 2 0 1 1

2 3 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 1

0 3 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 2

1 7 / 0 4 / 2 0 1 2

0 1 / 0 8 / 2 0 1 2

0 9 / 1 1 / 2 0 1 2

2 2 / 0 2 / 2 0 1 3

1 1 / 0 6 / 2 0 1 3

2 0 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 3

0 2 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 4

1 5 / 0 4 / 2 0 1 4

I n t e r n a t i o n a l

R e s e r v e s ( B i l l i o n U S $ )

"Optimum"*


10/18

The problem lies within the economic model

More control... What results is it generating?


* Nota: up to November 2014.

Since the first price controls were implemented in February 2003:

GENERAL INFLATION*

1,706.51%

FOOD INFLATION*3,911.74%

In 2000 and 2001, years in which there were no price controls, inflation wa13.4 and 12.3%: THE lowest levels of the past 16 years.


11/18




Distorted exchange rate: the parallel dollar exceeds 180 BsF/US$,while Cencoex is 6.3 BsF/US$, that of Sicad 1 is 12 BsF/US$ and Sicais 52 BsF/US$.

Allocative inefficiency: some estimate that the debt to the privatesector ranges between US$ 8,000 and US$ 12,000 million, while othe

take it up to US$ 14,000 million.International Reserves broke the US$ 20,000 million floor andremain near that number. Between 2002 and 2014, the largest oil boin history, Venezuela received close to US $ 800,000 million from oilexports.


12/18




jan-08; 24,7%

au

apr-05; 5,1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%40.0%

J a n - 0 5

J u n - 0 5

N o v - 0 5

A p r - 0 6

S e p - 0 6

F e b - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

D e c - 0 7

M a y - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

M a r - 0 9

A u g - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

N o v - 1 0

A p r - 1 1

S e p - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

M a y - 1 3

S c

a r c i t y I n d e x

Scarcity Index "Normal" scarcity levels 20% barrier


13/18

The Central Government avoided unpopular measures in 2014But failed to prevent the loss of popular support

* Datanálisis

November/2013 November/

Inflation (annualized) 58.2%

Scarcity 23%

GDP 1.3%(2013)

Oil price 94 US$/b 7

Black Market Exchange Rate 60.5 BsF/US$ 114,3

Negative perception of the country situation* 72.8%

Negative assessment of NM administration* 53.5%

Source: BCV, Menpet, Datanálisis, ODH Grupo Consultor


14/18

A year before the 2010 parliamentary elections

Datanálisis, Oct 2009 – Aug 2010 BCV

38.746.2

36

51

59.2

46.2

63

40

Situación país AprobacióngestiónChávez


2009 2010

Positiva Negativa

2010 parliamentary elections results (CNE)

Pro government Opposition Participation48% 52% 67%

2009

Inflation 25%

Scarcity 13%

Growth rate -3%

Oil Price US$/b 57

(US$/b 29less than 2008) le

Imports US$ 40,669 MM.(US$ 10,821 MM less

than 2008)

US$ 3(US$ 2

Countrysituation

Approvallevels

Chávez

ApprovallevelsChávez

Countrysituation


15/18

A year before presidential electons 2012

Datanálisis, Oct 2011 – Aug 2012 BCV

2012 presidential elections results (CNE)

Pro government Opposition

Participation

55% 45% 80%

40.9

5155.8 55.857.6

44.641.2

33.9



2011 2012

Positiva Negativa

2011

Inflation 28%

Scarcity 13%

Growth rate 4.2%

Oil Price US$/b 101(US$/b 29

more than 2010) m

Imports US$ 46,813 MM.(US$ 18,274 MMmore than 2010)

US$ 59(USmo

Countrysituation

Approvallevels

Chávez

ApprovallevelsChávez

Countrysituation


16/18

A year before presidential electons 2013

Datanálisis, Apr 2011 – Apr 2013 BCV

Resultado presidenciales 2013

Oficialismo Oposición Participación51% 49% 80%

67.2 65

50.8 55.2

31.8 29.2

46.3

34.3


Situación país AprobacióngestiónMaduro

2012 2013

Positiva Negativa

2012

Inflation 20%

Scarcity 14.2%

Growth rate 5.6%

Oil Price US$/b 103(US$/b 2

more than 2011) le

Imports US$ 59,339 MM.(US$ 12,526 MMmore than 2011)

US$ 5(US$ 7

Countrysituation

Approvallevels

Chávez

ApprovallevelsMaduro

Countrysituation


17/18

A year before legislative electons 2015

Datanálisis, Oct 2014 BCV, ME

18.2

30.2

81.6

67.5

Situación país Aprobación gestiónMaduro

Positiva Negativa

20

Inflation 6(Aug

Scarcity 3(Aug

Growth rate -2,

Oil Price US$/b 88(US$/b 9.7 less than 2

Imports US$ 17,351 M(1st semester, US$ 4

MM less than 20

Countrysituation

Approval levelsMaduro


18/18

ODH Grupo Consultor, C.A.

Email: [email protected] Teléfono: 955.22.85 – 952.11.36

Richard Obuchi

Email: [email protected] @RichardObuchi
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

obuchi miami2015 english

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