ocean ecosystem restoration with co2 sequestration. · market cap 2020 (trillions) listed companies...
TRANSCRIPT
Philip W. Kithil, CEOOcean-based Climate Solutions, [email protected]
© 2020 Ocean-based Climate Solutions, Inc. * Patents pending.
Ocean Ecosystem Restoration with CO2 Sequestration.Motivation: there are many CO2 drawdown technologies and a few ocean restoration ideas, but no new funding models. We offer all three.
Part A: New funding model: Stock For Carbon™* - 3M Corporation Case Study.
Part B: The Oxygenator ™* wave-powered upwelling/downwelling device & system to restore the ocean ecosystem while sequestering CO2 in the deep ocean.
3M Case Study
Philip W. Kithil, CEOOcean-based Climate Solutions, [email protected]
© 2019 Ocean-based Climate Solutions, Inc. * Patents pending.
Part A. STOCK FOR CARBON™ *
IPCC climate models require massive drawdown to stay below 2° warming.
40 gigatons for 80 years = 3,200 billion tons (Prof. Klaus Lackner, ASU).
Today? Barely above zero.
Take nominal price $100 per ton, = $320,000 billion = $320 trillion, $4 trillion/year.
Global GDP 2019 $86 trillion before COVID19.
Drawdown cost ~4.7% of GDP (and going up, the longer we delay).
2006 Stern Report on cost to mitigate climate change: 1% if act then. Up to 20% if do nothing.
Drawdown - How Much CO2?
Stock For Carbon (SFC)1. Paying for CO2 Drawdown with carbon tax/fee/trading schemes are ineffective: differ across
jurisdictions; admin is complex & expensive; impact on business will soak up cash, reduce jobs and GDP, but may not proportionally reduce emissions.
2. A CO2 tax/fee is paid out of annual net income, whereas SFC leverages the stock value, about ~20x annual net income (historic average P/E ratio).
3. SFC is direct contract between corporate emitter & CO2 remover; paid in stock, no cash outlay, no job losses.
4. Tons removed belong to corporation, are not tradeable. The data is public.
5. Shareholders’ dilution is quickly recovered as investors bid up price, due to higher ESG ratings.
6. Corporate subscriber gains substantial strategic and marketing competitive advantages.
Markets/CustomersStock
ExchangeMarket Cap 2020
(trillions)Listed
Companies
NYSE $25.6 2,400
NASDAQ $11.2 3,300
Tokyo $5.1 2,300
Shanghai $4.7 1,000
Hong Kong $4.2 2,000
Euronext $3.7 1,300
Shenzen $3.3 2,700
London $2.9 3,000
Toronto $1.8 2,200
Bombay $1.5 5,700
Total $64.0 29,900
Recent Corporate Initiatives
Microsoft – carbon negative by 2030, drawdown all emissions thereafter.
Amazon/Bezos - $10b commitment, carbon negative 2040.
Starbucks – “resource positive” within 10 years.
STRIPE - $1 million funding of negative emissions technologies at any price per ton.
Case Study Using Public Data for 3M Corporation
3M Corporate Snapshot
• $32 billion net sales.• 96,000 employees.• 200 facilities in 70 countries.• 55,000 products• 4 segments: Safety, Trans/elec, Health, Consumer• $1.9 billion annual R&D (“1/3 of sales come from products
created in the past five years.”)
• score “B” in 2019, 2018; “A-” in 2017, 2016.
Actual: https://s24.q4cdn.com/834031268/files/doc_downloads/2020/Sustainability-Report-2020-Complete.pdfTrend: calculated by Ocean-based Climate Solutions, Inc.
3M Energy Use & CO2 Emissions.
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Actual data
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3M Historic Data - Qrtly Avgs.
Cash + equivalent Working capital Percent cash to working capital
3M Cash and Working Capital
1 year’s CO2e emissions at $75
per ton =
$450M
7.6x
$(10,000)
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Impact on 3M If It Paid IMF $75/ton For CO2 Drawdown
Change in cash vs free CO2
Cash + equivalent with "free" CO2
Cash + equivalent IMF $75/ton by 2030
What-if: 3M Paid IMF’s $75/t*?
* IMF estimate of carbon tax by 2030 to meet 2 degrees C. target.
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O2
3M Ambition: NegativeCumulative CO2 2015 - 2035
3M Cumulative Tons CO2 Emitted Oxygenator Net Cumulative Tons Removed3M Net Cumulative Emissions 3M share price increase for breakeven
What-if: 3M Paid In Stock?
The OTHER CO2 Problem.
Personal CO2 footprint due to consumption & lifestyle.
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Per Capita Annual CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuels
http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/co2-emissions-by-country/
Sustainable = 3 t
How does 3M corporate CO2footprint compare to its employees’ CO2 footprint ?
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3M Corporate CO2e vs. Employees'/Dependents' CO2e
Employees + dependents cumulative CO2 emitted 3M Cumulative Tons CO2 Emitted
Region 3M RevenuesEstimated 3M
Employees
CO2 annual tons per capita
3M employees CO2 emissions
Sustainable emissions
3M employees' excess CO2
Americas $ 16.1 39,662 16 634,592 118,986 515,606
Asia Pacific $ 9.8 34,545 8 276,362 103,636 172,726
EU MidEast Africa $ 6.2 21,956 6.5 142,712 65,867 76,845
Total $ 32.1 96,163 1,053,666 288,489 765,177
0.00%
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3M Ambition Employees+Dependents' Net
Negative CO2 By 2035
Employees + dependents cumulative CO2 emitted Oxygenator cumulative CO2 removed
Employee net CO2 balance 3M share price increase for breakeven
What-if: 3M Paid In Stock To Achieve
Sustainable Employees’ Emissions?
2015 2022
2035 cum. net negative CO2 (t) (3,394,446) (3,385,444)
Breakeven stock price 8.4% 5.7%
2035 cum. net negative CO2 (t) (2,924,823) (1,081,223)
Breakeven stock price 3.4% 2.4%
Breakeven Total 3M+Empl/Dep 11.8% 8.1%
3M Corporation CO2e Emissions Reduction Opportunities
3M Employees' and Dependents' CO2e Emissions Reduction Opportunities
Ambition (lookback year)
$68.00
$69.00
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IMF Ocean-based
Co
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Cost Comparison (Ambition = 2022 to 2035)
3M Ambition Examplesa. Lookback year.b. Employees’/dependents’ sustainability.
Long Term Projections.We can remove up to 1,800 gigatons, 56% of what is needed.
Funded under Stock For Carbon by corporate sponsors.
Corporate initial commitment = 1,000 units (output of 1 factory), increasing ~40% annually until it achieves net-negative CO2.
Typical duration 15 years, shareholder breakeven 5% to 10% share price increase.
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Cumulative CO2, PPM, and Temperature
Gigatons with fossil phase-out, no CO2 removalGigatons with fossil phase-out and Ocean-based BGC CO2 removal2 degree C1.5 degree CAtmospheric cumulative gigatons: do-nothingPPM - do nothingPPM with fossil phase-out and Ocean-based BGC CO2 removalPPM with fossil phase-out, no CO2 removal
Part B. Technology Description:
The Ocean Oxygenator ™ pat. pending
Restores ocean ecosystems and naturally sequesters CO2
Oxygenator: wave-powered upwelling & downwelling 1/3 scale Oxygenator Dec 2018
Ocean scientists’ statements"... in times of climate change artificial up/downwelling can serve as a conservation and/or restoration measure. This relates to - among other factors - the projected decline in ocean productivity due to enhanced water column stratification via surface ocean warming. As declining primary production will likely be amplified via the food web, those changes will be felt much stronger at higher trophic levels. Artificial upwelling can contribute to counteracting this trend". Dr. Ulf Riebesell, GEOMAR.
"There is essentially no environmental risk associated with small-scale field trials. For hypothetical large-scale deployment, local oxygenation of subsurface waters by translocation of surface waters and deeper waters will be accompanied with a translocation of nutrients and heat, likely leading to a cooling and enhanced biological productivity of surface waters. Enhanced productivity will eventually be followed by enhanced respiration and oxygen consumption that may to some extent offset the initial oxygen gain. Enhanced biological productivity will likely enhance the productivity of higher trophic levels including fish. There will be shifts in the ecosystem, the valuation of which is difficult, but with higher productivity in normally not over-productive waters, these will most likely be viewed positively. Mechanisms of such ecological shifts are poorly understood and based on current knowledge there is little expectation that shifts will differ from natural shifts observed when moving from oligotrophic to more eutrophic conditions, such as usually found further onshore.“ Dr. Andreas Oschlies, GEOMAR
Oxygenators Restore Ecosystems, Create Jobs
Ecosystem Benefits.• Enhance primary production.• Restore the ocean food chain
including fish, mammals, seabirds.• Re-oxygenate the mid ocean.• Cool the upper ocean.
Social Benefits:• Create jobs in port cities worldwide.
Sequester CO2 for 5,000 years in deep ocean.
1. Low cost, renewably powered Oxygenator.
2. Natural processes: biological carbon pump, microbial carbon pump.
3. Long term.
4. Large scale-open ocean.
5. Safe.
Ramp-up, Cost
Fully scaled up by 2044
Restores 300ppm by 2100
Long term cost as low as $6.30 per ton $-
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Cumulative CO2 Removed
Cumulative Gigatons removed Total operating
ProjectionsPer corporate subscriber.
Factory production year one = 1,000 Oxygenators.
This projection assumes production increases 50%/year.
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OBCS Projected P & L perEach Corporate Subscriber
Net revenues Direct cost Gross profit
Philip Kithil is our Founder and CEO. He has a
BA/MSBA in economics and has been a serial
entrepreneur since 1972, founding six startups and
securing a dozen patents in his previous automotive
safety business sold in 2004 to NYSE-listed supplier.
CEOPhilip Kithil
Philip Fullam is our Chief Engineer. With a
BSME, an MBA, and 40+ years experience in
design and production, he ensures that
everything works right, from computer screen
to shop floor to ship deck to ocean depths.
Consulting Chief EngineerPhilip Fullam
Amal Bhattarai is our West Coast Representative
and Technical Director. He has an MSEE and is
Silicon Valley startup lead.
Consulting Technical DirectorAmal Bhattarai
Chris White is our COO. He has a BS and MS
Oceanography and Limnology and is a trilingual
(English Spanish Dutch) EMT Dive Master. Chris
has overseen our tests and operations in USA,
Peru, and Newfoundland.
Consulting COOChris White
Corporate Profile & Team
• Delaware C corporation founded February 2018. Raised $256k from angels.
• Testing under the parent company (Atmocean, Inc.) since 2005. Raised $3.9m in-kind and from angels.
• Science advisory: Woods Hole Group (div. CLS/IFREMER); Prof’s Ulf Riebesell & Andreas Oschlies – GEOMAR. Dr. Ian Walsh, Seabird Scientific.