O C T O B E R 1 5 , 2 0 1 2 |I S O N E W E N G L A N D

ISO Staff

Energy-Efficiency Working Group

2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast Data Review

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AGENDA2:00 PM Introduction to Workgroup & Welcome

ISO New England

5 min EE Forecast Updated Data Collection Form ReviewISO New England

30 min EE Program Data SummaryDave Ehrlich, ISO New England

45 min Direction of EE Programs and Costs - Program AdministratorsUpdate from each PA focusing on recent data submission including insights on future of program mix, percent of budget spent and production costs

10 min EE Submitted Budget SummaryDave Ehrlich, ISO New England

30 min Direction on EE Funding and Sources - State AgenciesUpdates on amount of funding and sources for EE programs

30 min Considerations for Forecast Data Inputs and Next StepsDiscussion of EE forecast model process

4 :30 PM Adjourn

UPDATED DATA FORM & INSTRUCTIONS

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Data Form Updates for 2013 EE Forecast

• Addition of separate fields for (up to 10) specific Program Measures/End Uses and corresponding % of total program kWh

• Changes to Sectors, Program Type and Measure Type

• Addition of Adjusted Gross section, used for informational purposes input to Regional Energy Efficeincy Database (REED)

• Data input for these fields are not going to be used by ISO-NE for EE Forecast

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Detail of Changes Sector Types

• Residential

• Commercial and Industrial

• Low Income

* Must Select Sector Type first to be able to select appropriate Program Type

Detail of Changes to Program Types

Commercial/Industrial Low Income Residential

Behavior Behavior Behavior

Demand Response Demand Response Demand Response

Education Education Education

Lighting/Appliances Lighting/Appliances Lighting/Appliances

Loans Loans Loans

Lost Opp Small - C&I Lost Opp - Low Income Lost Opp - Residential

Lost Opp Large - C&I Retrofit - Low Income Retrofit - Residential

Retrofit Small - C&I

Retrofit Large - C&I* Must Select Sector Type first to be able to select appropriate

Program Type6

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Detail of Changes to Measure Types

Appliances Hot Water

Building Envelope HVAC

Compressed Air Lighting

Consumer Products Motors/Drives/VFD

Cooling Process

Custom Refrigeration

Education Small Motors

Heating

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Data Input Update for 2013 EE Forecast

• For the 2013 EEF, PAs were provided the new EE Forecast 2013 Data Form.

• Forms pre-populated with the data submitted in previous years for consistency.

• PAs will need to add distribution of measures in the 10 new measure type fields.

• PAs can add adjusted gross values to prior programs submitted.

• PAs may delete old Programs that have expired.

• PAs may also add new Programs they have implemented.

Budget Updates needed for 2013 EE Forecast

• System benefit charges

• FCM dollars allocated to EE

• RGGI dollars allocated to EE

• Dollars budgeted beyond SBC/FCM/RGGI

• Approved EE budgets where available

• States were requested to provide this data

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ENERGY-EFFICIENCY PROGRAM DATA COLLECTION SUMMARY

Program Data Summary

• 15 Program Administrator Reports

• 4 years of data

• 547 EE Programs Reported

• 136 Unique Program Names

• 4 Unique Customer Classes (prescribed)

• 18 Unique Program Types (prescribed)

• 14 Unique Measure/End Uses (prescribed)

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2013 EE FORECAST DATA REVIEW

2013 EEF Data Summary TotalTotal Achieved Achieved Peak to Achieved Lifetime

Budget Costs Annual Dollars Summer Dollars % Energy % Budget % Peak Energy Ratio Lifetime Dollars$1000s $1000s Energy (MWh) per MWh Peak (MW) per MW Achieved Spent Achieved MW/GWh Energy per MWh

NEW ENGLAND2009 357,939 352,546 942,017 374 152 2318694 83 98 94 0.161404 10,730,060 332010 524,415 501,121 1,381,006 363 195 2575414 103 96 95 0.140896 14,681,110 342011 665,087 518,865 1,582,073 328 202 2570368 91 78 77 0.127595 18,046,920 29

Average 515,814 457,511 1,301,699 351 183 2502392 93 89 87 0.140454 14,486,030 32CONNECTICUT

2009 102,183 73,411 222,500 330 34 2,150,156 60 72 63 0.153449 2,464,777 302010 143,543 144,938 405,043 358 50 2,907,364 113 101 105 0.123079 3,533,541 412011 129,909 119,426 381,974 313 43 2,769,483 93 92 87 0.112893 3,163,706 38

Average 125,212 112,592 336,506 335 42 2,657,211 88 90 84 0.125918 3,054,008 37MAINE

2009 0 13,977 63,391 220 9 1,596,299 383 0 238 0.138127 561,025 252010 0 16,989 84,007 202 10 1,637,432 101 0 101 0.123506 758,528 222011 0 22,817 152,663 149 18 1,248,321 117 0 100 0.119730 1,447,766 16

Average 0 17,928 100,020 179 12 1,437,685 130 0 116 0.124674 922,440 19MASSACHUSETTS

2009 183,782 192,362 424,652 453 70 2,751,527 81 105 99 0.164631 5,075,858 382010 294,315 253,086 619,638 408 92 2,757,025 99 86 91 0.148146 7,336,580 342011 432,796 283,898 783,870 362 102 2,783,216 88 66 70 0.130128 10,586,520 27

Average 303,631 243,116 609,387 399 88 2,765,698 90 80 83 0.144250 7,666,319 32NEW HAMPSHIRE

2009 18,286 17,988 59,691 301 10 1,889,480 139 98 137 0.159488 750,030 242010 21,866 21,763 73,710 295 12 1,759,992 121 100 117 0.167759 894,648 242011 17,667 18,904 58,042 326 10 1,910,676 123 107 121 0.170458 673,064 28

Average 19,273 19,552 63,815 306 11 1,845,694 127 101 124 0.165998 772,580 25RHODE ISLAND (NECO)

2009 24,555 26,211 81,543 321 15 1,702,261 103 107 123 0.188828 899,330 292010 30,366 27,581 81,275 339 13 2,163,690 107 91 78 0.156838 929,242 302011 48,649 36,495 96,009 380 14 2,673,394 94 75 71 0.142185 1,076,778 34

Average 34,523 30,095 86,276 349 14 2,160,175 100 87 87 0.161481 968,450 31VERMONT

2009 29,134 28,597 90,240 317 14 1,997,246 92 98 104 0.158666 979,041 292010 34,326 36,764 117,334 313 17 2,107,774 88 107 93 0.148653 1,228,575 302011 36,066 37,325 109,514 341 15 2,502,506 72 103 69 0.136192 1,099,092 34

Average 33,175 34,228 105,696 324 16 2,200,005 83 103 86 0.147199 1,102,236 31

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2013 EEF Data Summary by Class

Total Achieved Achieved Peak toCosts Annual Dollars Summer Dollars % Energy % Budget % Peak Energy Ratio % 0F % 0F % 0F

$1000s Energy (MWh) per MWh Peak (MW) per MW Achieved Spent Achieved MW/GWh Costs MWh MW

NEW ENGLAND Total

2009 352,546 942,017 374 152 2,318,694 83 98 94 0.1614 100.0 100.0 100.02010 501,121 1,381,006 363 195 2,575,414 103 96 95 0.1409 100.0 100.0 100.02011 518,865 1,582,073 328 202 2,570,368 91 78 77 0.1276 100.0 100.0 100.0

Commercial & Industrial2009 197,954 606,261 327 111 1,781,707 93 101 100 0.1833 56.1 64.4 73.12010 266,853 788,989 338 125 2,128,803 93 96 87 0.1589 53.3 57.1 64.42011 280,840 906,532 310 135 2,080,146 85 70 72 0.1489 54.1 57.3 66.9

Low Income2009 41,968 35,566 1180 4 11,229,580 79 98 83 0.1051 11.9 3.8 2.52010 49,275 40,447 1218 4 12,180,450 70 84 75 0.1000 9.8 2.9 2.12011 55,874 47,360 1180 4 14,339,490 85 85 73 0.0823 10.8 3.0 1.9

Residential2009 112,623 300,190 375 37 3,027,182 69 95 79 0.1239 31.9 31.9 24.52010 184,993 551,570 335 65 2,838,195 128 104 119 0.1182 36.9 39.9 33.52011 182,151 628,181 290 63 2,893,226 103 96 88 0.1002 35.1 39.7 31.2

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2013 EEF Data Summary - Percent of Achieved Annual Energy by Class and Measure

2009 2010 2011

Total C&I LowInc Residl Total C&I LowInc Residl Total C&I LowInc Residl

NEW ENGLAND

Total 100.00 63.69 3.81 32.50 100.00 56.28 2.99 40.73 100.00 56.47 3.02 40.51

Appliances 0.38 0.00 0.01 0.37 0.45 0.02 0.03 0.41 0.45 0.00 0.02 0.43

Building Envelope 0.58 0.01 0.12 0.44 0.40 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.03 0.07 0.07

Compressed Air 0.34 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.76 0.00 0.00 1.31 1.31 0.00 0.00

Consumer Products 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.28

Cooling 2.57 2.44 0.01 0.12 2.48 2.16 0.00 0.32 1.50 1.37 0.00 0.12

Custom 1.59 1.54 0.00 0.05 1.04 0.90 0.02 0.12 2.02 1.80 0.05 0.17

Education 0.91 0.90 0.01 0.00 2.64 0.73 0.01 1.91 2.77 0.05 0.01 2.71

HVAC 8.28 7.16 0.26 0.86 10.34 9.26 0.14 0.94 9.35 8.42 0.13 0.80

Heating 1.29 0.61 0.20 0.48 1.54 0.52 0.20 0.83 1.31 0.36 0.46 0.49

Hot Water 0.51 0.00 0.22 0.29 0.51 0.02 0.13 0.35 0.66 0.01 0.40 0.25

Lighting 73.43 42.98 2.04 28.40 69.88 34.51 1.49 33.88 64.91 30.17 1.13 33.62

Motors/Drives/VFD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Process 3.92 3.89 0.00 0.03 3.72 3.66 0.00 0.05 9.77 9.74 0.00 0.04

Refrigeration 4.01 1.66 0.93 1.42 3.81 1.51 0.78 1.52 3.63 1.32 0.77 1.54

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54.1

10.8

35.1

2011 NE % of Total Costs by Class

Commercial&IndustrialLowIncomeResidential

57.7

3.0

39.4

2011 NE % of Annual Energy by Class

Commercial&IndustrialLowIncomeResidential

67.1

1.9

31.0

2011 NE % of Summer Peak by Class

Commercial&IndustrialLowIncomeResidential 0.1481

0.0823

0.1002

2011 NE Peak to Energy Ratios by Class

Commercial&IndustrialLowIncomeResidential

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NE CT ME MA NH RI VT0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2013 EEF Annual Energy production Costs: Dollar per MWh

2009 2010 2011 Average17

NE CT ME MA NH RI VT0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

2013 EEF Summer Peak to Annual Energy Ratio: MW/GWh

2009 2010 2011 Average18

NE CT ME MA NH RI VT-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

2013 EEF Percent of Annual Energy Goal Achieved

2009 2010 2011 Average19

NE CT ME MA NH RI VT0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 EEF Percent of Budget Spent

2009 2010 2011 Average

Maine does not report a budget goal

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NE CT ME MA NH RI VT0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2013 EEF Percent of Summer Peak Goal Achieved

2009 2010 2011 Average21

UI CL&P MPUC MEFT CLC FITCH MECO WMECO NSTAR PSNH GSECO UNITL NECO VTEFT BED0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2013 EEF Annual Energy Production Costs by Utility: Dollars per MWh

2009 2010 2011 Average22

UI CL&P MPUC MEFT CLC FITCH MECO WMECO NSTAR PSNH GSECO UNITL NECO VTEFT BED0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0.180

0.200

0.220

2013 EEF Summer Peak to Annual Energy Ratio by Utility:MW/GWh

2009 2010 2011 Average23

NE CT ME MA NH RI VT0.00

25.00

50.00

75.00

100.00

2013 EEF % of Annual Energy by Measure for 2011

OtherCoolingCustomEducationRefrigerationProcessHVACLightingRESLighting LILightingC&I

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ENERGY-EFFICIENCY BUDGET SUMMARY

Budget Data Summary

• Only three states submitted budgets to date– MA– CT– VT

• None of the submitted budgets are substantially different from last years submitted budgets

• Need the rest of the budgets no later than October 26, 2012 in order to incorporate revised values into model

• For states that do not submit budgets, the forecast will use last years submitted budgets as basis

CONSIDERATIONS FOR FORECAST DATA INPUTS AND NEXT STEPSDiscussion of EE forecast model process

Model Implementation Next Steps

• Resolve any outstanding data issues

• Model Considerations– Shift in portfolio offerings– Escalator for production costs– Budget expansion or contraction– Realization and spending rates

• Draft revised forecast and post for review and comment by EEFWG

• Review and discuss comments with EEFWG

• Finalize EE Forecast

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2013 EE Forecast Schedule

*Dates subject to modification