october 2013 greater boston real estate market trends report
DESCRIPTION
Buyers maintained their momentum through the summer and into the fall as interest rates continued to stay low after ticking up in the spring. Prices continue to move up because demand for available homes to buy is outpacing supply. Inventory continues to shrink from the same time the year before. What the market needs are homeowners to commit to selling to get us to full recovery. –October single-family home sales – Up 12.2% over last year. Seventh straight months of increases. Most October closed sales since 2004 –October Single-family median prices were UP 12.3% to $320,000. Thirteen straight months of increases. –September condo sales UP 8.8% and median prices UP 11.3% ($295,000) –Inventory in October Down 19.96% to 20,716 and Condominium homes available Down 26.1% to 5,582 SF listings added to the market in October UP 10.9% over last year. (5,975 from 5,387 in 2012) –Condo listings added to the market up 17.7% over last year. (2,153 from 1,829 in 2012).TRANSCRIPT
Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
October 2013 Quick Facts
+ 7.9%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales
Single-Family Only
Now that the baton is in grasp of the final quarter of our annual relay, it's a good time to look back and reflect. This year has been spectacular for residential real estate. Robust gains in sales and prices were felt in many markets. More homes sold in less time for closer to asking price. While consumers have felt empowered by low prices and interest rates, sellers are starting to regain their footing. Seller confidence is crucial to refilled inventory bins – which are still relatively sparse.
+ 4.5%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales
Condominium Only
+ 6.3%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed SalesAll Properties
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10111213
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of November 16, 2013. All data from MLS PropertyInformation Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
New Listings in the Greater Boston region were up 18.0 percent for detached homes and 16.3 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales increased 7.9 percent for detached homes and 4.5 percent for condominiums.
The Median Sales Price was up 7.9 percent to $465,500 for single-family properties and 13.8 percent to $416,500 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 33.3 percent for single-family units and 34.3 percent for townhouse-condo units.
The economy continues to snail forward. The government shutdown had a modest impact on borrowing – mostly centered on USDA and VA borrowers. Consumer confidence is central to ongoing recovery, and confidence was hindered by the shutdown. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic activity and impacts the likelihood for big-ticket purchases like homes and cars. Future shutdowns are unwelcome.
Single-Family Market Overview
Condominium Market Overview
Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Click on desired metric to jump to that page.
Months Supply of Inventory
Days On Market Until Sale
Percent of Original List Price Received
City of Boston Overview
Pending Sales
New Listings
Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Oct-2012 Oct-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / –
Median Sales Price
- 28.0% -- --
- 12.6% 114 99 - 12.8%
--
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
$431,250 + 8.0%
120 105
3,530 2,541
$465,500 + 7.9% $460,000
9,725 + 8.2%Closed Sales 786 848 + 7.9% 8,986
$496,850
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
94.3% 97.2%
- 31.1%
+ 3.0%Percent of OriginalList Price Received
Days on Market Until Sale
94.3%
- 34.3%
+ 3.0%
59
97.2%
Pending Sales + 8.8%10,535874 1,031 + 18.0% 9,685
Months Supply of Inventory 4.5
90 68
-- -- --3.0 - 33.3%
99
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings 1,047 1,235 + 18.0% 13,407 13,657 + 1.9%
10 2010 10 2011 10 2012 10 2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Oct-2012 Oct-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / –
+ 8.9%
Median Sales Price $365,883 $416,500 + 13.8% $378,500 $404,000 + 6.7%
Closed Sales 712 744 + 4.5% 8,132 8,853
- 11.9%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 2,340 1,606 - 31.4% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 139 116 - 16.6% 135 119
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
--
Days on Market Until Sale 84 47 - 44.5% 88 53 - 39.6%
Months Supply of Inventory 3.3 2.2 - 34.3% -- --
+ 3.3%
Pending Sales 790 862 + 9.1% 8,757 9,581 + 9.4%
Percent of OriginalList Price Received
95.8% 99.0% + 3.3% 95.7% 99.0%
+ 3.3%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
New Listings 861 1,001 + 16.3% 11,371 11,741
10 2010 10 2011 10 2012 10 2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 902 + 31.7% 757 + 34.5%
Dec-2012 819 + 11.3% 766 + 19.1%
Jan-2013 601 + 15.1% 513 + 24.5%
Feb-2013 428 - 7.6% 434 + 13.0%
Mar-2013 622 - 4.0% 628 + 3.5%
Apr-2013 778 + 4.9% 806 + 6.5%
May-2013 1,109 + 10.6% 1,067 + 5.7%
Jun-2013 1,489 - 0.9% 1,247 - 1.3%
Jul-2013 1,488 + 17.2% 1,254 + 20.8%
Aug-2013 1,438 + 11.4% 1,273 + 5.9%
Sep-2013 924 + 21.7% 887 + 18.6%
Oct-2013 848 + 7.9% 744 + 4.5%
614
512
786712
848
744
October
20132012 20132012
7,5386,710
8,9868,132
9,7258,853
Year to Date
20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Total 11,446 + 10.0% 10,376 + 11.1%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Single-Family Condominium
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
+4.5%+39.1%+28.0%
Single-Family Condominium+8.9%+21.2%+19.2%+7.9% +8.2%
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 $446,550 + 5.7% $380,000 + 8.2%
Dec-2012 $470,000 + 6.7% $380,500 + 10.3%
Jan-2013 $430,000 + 6.2% $368,500 + 3.8%
Feb-2013 $429,850 + 8.8% $350,000 - 5.4%
Mar-2013 $425,100 + 2.5% $405,000 + 19.1%
Apr-2013 $476,500 + 14.2% $387,500 + 4.5%
May-2013 $499,432 + 7.4% $410,000 + 7.6%
Jun-2013 $542,000 + 7.9% $420,000 + 5.0%
Jul-2013 $532,500 + 4.4% $400,000 + 3.4%
Aug-2013 $520,000 + 6.1% $416,250 + 9.5%
Sep-2013 $500,500 + 16.4% $410,000 + 9.3%
Oct-2013 $465,500 + 7.9% $416,500 + 13.8%
$391,250
$348,500
$431,250
$365,883
$465,500
$416,500
October
20132012 20132012
$459,900
$360,000
$460,000
$378,500
$496,850
$404,000
Year to Date
20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Median $490,000 + 7.7% $399,950 + 6.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Single-Family Condominium
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium
+13.8%+5.0%+10.2%
Single-Family Condominium+6.7%+5.1%+0.0%+7.9% +8.0%
Housing Affordability Index
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 117 + 6.9% 135 + 4.6%
Dec-2012 113 + 6.9% 137 + 3.7%
Jan-2013 125 + 3.7% 143 + 5.8%
Feb-2013 122 - 2.0% 146 + 11.2%
Mar-2013 123 + 4.5% 128 - 8.8%
Apr-2013 112 - 5.3% 136 + 2.7%
May-2013 104 - 4.9% 124 - 5.0%
Jun-2013 90 - 11.6% 114 - 9.2%
Jul-2013 92 - 9.5% 120 - 8.4%
Aug-2013 93 - 11.6% 114 - 13.9%
Sep-2013 98 - 19.0% 118 - 14.0%
Oct-2013 105 - 12.6% 116 - 16.6%
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
116
129120
139
105116
October
101
126114
135
99
119
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Average 108 -4.6% 128 -4.0%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Single-Family Condominium
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium
-16.6%+7.9%+3.3%
Single-Family Condominium-11.9%+7.8%+12.4%-12.6% -12.8%
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 3,029 - 28.2% 2,015 - 40.6%
Dec-2012 2,335 - 31.6% 1,531 - 43.0%
Jan-2013 2,330 - 30.9% 1,592 - 42.4%
Feb-2013 2,438 - 32.9% 1,702 - 41.9%
Mar-2013 2,403 - 41.0% 1,730 - 47.5%
Apr-2013 2,786 - 35.5% 1,965 - 40.7%
May-2013 3,044 - 31.7% 2,056 - 35.9%
Jun-2013 3,028 - 28.0% 1,997 - 33.1%
Jul-2013 2,824 - 27.3% 1,804 - 34.6%
Aug-2013 2,674 - 26.9% 1,646 - 32.7%
Sep-2013 2,826 - 26.0% 1,797 - 29.4%
Oct-2013 2,541 - 28.0% 1,606 - 31.4%
4,942
3,8733,530
2,3402,541
1,606
October
20132012 201320122011 2011
Average 2,688 - 30.7% 1,787 - 38.1%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Single-Family Condominium
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium
-31.4%-39.6%-28.6% -28.0%
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 3.4 - 45.4% 2.7 - 55.8%
Dec-2012 2.9 - 38.5% 2.0 - 52.2%
Jan-2013 3.9 - 40.0% 3.1 - 53.8%
Feb-2013 5.7 - 27.4% 3.9 - 48.6%
Mar-2013 3.9 - 38.5% 2.8 - 49.2%
Apr-2013 3.6 - 38.5% 2.4 - 44.3%
May-2013 2.7 - 38.2% 1.9 - 39.4%
Jun-2013 2.0 - 27.4% 1.6 - 32.3%
Jul-2013 1.9 - 37.9% 1.4 - 45.8%
Aug-2013 1.9 - 34.4% 1.3 - 36.4%
Sep-2013 3.1 - 39.2% 2.0 - 40.5%
Oct-2013 3.0 - 33.3% 2.2 - 34.3%
8.07.6
4.5
3.33.0
2.2
October
20132012 201320122011 2011
Average 3.0 - 39.6% 2.2 - 47.9%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Single-Family Condominium
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium
-34.3%-56.6%-44.2% -33.3%
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 89 - 17.8% 77 - 29.7%
Dec-2012 97 - 12.7% 84 - 30.0%
Jan-2013 109 - 16.4% 88 - 29.4%
Feb-2013 111 - 17.0% 96 - 22.5%
Mar-2013 107 - 17.8% 71 - 39.1%
Apr-2013 94 - 22.1% 63 - 35.1%
May-2013 74 - 22.2% 51 - 40.2%
Jun-2013 56 - 37.6% 43 - 42.3%
Jul-2013 47 - 41.8% 38 - 46.3%
Aug-2013 49 - 44.3% 40 - 47.5%
Sep-2013 58 - 35.1% 50 - 40.9%
Oct-2013 59 - 34.3% 47 - 44.5%
109
9590
84
59
47
October
103 10499
88
68
53
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Total 72 - 28.4% 54 - 35.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Single-Family Condominium
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium
-44.5%-11.4%-17.3%
Single-Family Condominium-39.6%-15.2%-3.9%-34.3% -31.1%
Percent of Original List Price Received
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 94.6% + 2.4% 96.2% + 2.5%
Dec-2012 94.2% + 2.3% 96.2% + 3.4%
Jan-2013 93.8% + 3.7% 95.8% + 3.1%
Feb-2013 94.1% + 3.1% 96.6% + 3.4%
Mar-2013 95.2% + 2.4% 97.6% + 3.8%
Apr-2013 96.7% + 3.4% 98.8% + 3.3%
May-2013 97.8% + 2.6% 99.5% + 3.5%
Jun-2013 98.4% + 3.2% 99.7% + 3.5%
Jul-2013 98.1% + 2.4% 99.9% + 3.5%
Aug-2013 97.9% + 3.2% 99.6% + 3.5%
Sep-2013 97.3% + 2.9% 98.9% + 2.6%
Oct-2013 97.2% + 3.0% 99.0% + 3.3%
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
91.8% 93.6%94.3% 95.8%97.2% 99.0%
October
93.3% 94.1%94.3% 95.7%97.2% 99.0%
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Average 96.8% + 2.9% 98.5% + 3.3%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Single-Family Condominium
89%
91%
93%
95%
97%
99%
101%
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium
+3.3%+2.4%+2.8%
Single-Family Condominium+3.3%+1.8%+1.2%+3.0% +3.0%
Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 686 + 11.7% 596 + 8.4%
Dec-2012 504 + 6.3% 459 + 10.6%
Jan-2013 630 + 3.3% 657 + 18.8%
Feb-2013 713 - 5.8% 713 - 4.4%
Mar-2013 1,184 + 2.8% 1,169 + 9.6%
Apr-2013 1,394 + 12.8% 1,274 + 9.1%
May-2013 1,501 + 16.4% 1,268 + 7.5%
Jun-2013 1,292 + 9.8% 1,096 + 10.4%
Jul-2013 1,002 + 6.1% 962 + 20.7%
Aug-2013 913 + 16.9% 772 + 5.8%
Sep-2013 875 + 1.2% 808 + 10.2%
Oct-2013 1,031 + 18.0% 862 + 9.1%
742
591
874790
1,031
862
October
8,005
6,988
9,6858,757
10,5359,581
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Total 11,725 + 8.8% 10,636 + 9.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Single-Family Condominium
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
+9.1%+33.7%+17.8%
Single-Family Condominium+9.4%+25.3%+21.0%+18.0% +8.8%
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Nov-2012 631 - 3.4% 553 - 10.4%
Dec-2012 355 - 20.6% 308 - 19.6%
Jan-2013 882 - 5.5% 907 - 2.5%
Feb-2013 998 - 21.8% 952 - 14.7%
Mar-2013 1,357 - 30.5% 1,343 - 21.2%
Apr-2013 2,010 + 14.3% 1,664 + 13.7%
May-2013 2,001 + 14.2% 1,540 + 13.0%
Jun-2013 1,523 + 15.2% 1,226 + 8.2%
Jul-2013 1,136 + 13.4% 994 + 12.1%
Aug-2013 1,046 + 6.5% 866 + 10.9%
Sep-2013 1,469 + 6.4% 1,248 + 10.3%
Oct-2013 1,235 + 18.0% 1,001 + 16.3%
1,108
882
1,047
861
1,235
1,001
October
13,70112,402
13,407
11,371
13,657
11,741
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Total 14,643 + 0.9% 12,602 + 1.9%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
Single-Family Condominium
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium
+16.3%-2.4%-5.5%
Single-Family Condominium+3.3%-8.3%-2.1%+18.0% +1.9%
City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Oct-2012 Oct-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / –
+ 5.6%
Median Sales Price $420,000 $458,750 + 9.2% $400,000 $435,000 + 8.7%
Closed Sales 370 388 + 4.9% 4,557 4,813
- 12.8%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,174 894 - 23.9% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 120 105 - 12.6% 114 99
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
--
Days on Market Until Sale 70 42 - 39.3% 84 46 - 44.9%
Months Supply of Inventory 3.2 2.3 - 27.4% -- --
+ 3.3%
Pending Sales 431 484 + 12.3% 4,871 5,237 + 7.5%
Percent of OriginalList Price Received
96.0% 98.7% + 2.8% 95.6% 98.8%
+ 3.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13
New Listings 501 595 + 18.8% 6,379 6,597
10 2010 10 2011 10 2012 10 2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013
10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 10-2013