october 2016 - investmentreview.com · 2015 technology predictions report card the internet of...
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October 2016
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TMT Predictions was first published in 2001
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2015 Technology Predictions report card
The Internet of Things really is things, not people
Drones: high-profile and niche
3D printing is a revolution: just not the revolution you think
Click and collect booms in Europe
Smartphone batteries: better but not breakthrough
Nanosats take off, but they don’t take over (We were too high!)
The Re-enterprization of IT
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
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2015 Media Predictions report card
Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television
The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending a lot in media content
Print is alive and well – at least for books
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
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620 635 653
0
100
200
300
400
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700
2013 2014 2015
Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
US unit sales of print books, 2013–2015 (millions)
Source: Nielsen BookScan (captures 80% of US print book sales)
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2015 Telecom Predictions report card
One billion smartphone upgrades
The connectivity chasm deepens: the growing gap in broadband speeds
Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
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Total prediction accuracy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ
Mobile is eating the world BENEDICT EVANS
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Daily time spent per media platform (minutes)
Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Source: David Pakman blog on Medium.com
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Laptop and smartphone adoption among 18-24 year olds
Which of the following devices do you own or have ready access to?
Weighted base: Respondents aged 18-24: Australia (265), Canada (253), Finland (120), France (242), Germany (212), Italy (193), Japan (185),
Netherlands (253), Norway (130), Singapore (327), Spain (193), UK (510), US (279)
Source: Deloitte members firms’ Global Mobile Consumer Survey, developed countries, May-July 2015
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Intent to purchase a laptop and smartphone within the next 12 months
among 18-24 year olds
Which of the following devices are you likely to buy in the next 12 months?
Weighted base: Respondents aged 18-24: Australia (265), Canada (253), Finland (120), France (242), Germany (212), Italy (193), Japan (185),
Netherlands (253), Norway (130), Singapore (327), Spain (193), UK (510), US (279)
Source: Deloitte members firms’ Global Mobile Consumer Survey, developed countries, May-July 2015
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Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy survey, US only, 2014
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It’s not either/or, it’s BOTH
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Q2'10
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Quarterly shipments Rolling 4Q total
Global tablet shipments in millions of units
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Communications and marketing > It’s not always mobile
Mobile apps: Not for all Millennials
Insight Millennials (at 26%) are far more likely to use a bank’s mobile
application than Generation X (12%) or Boomers (3%). However,
when looking at the preferred way that Millennials want to
transact with their bank, the website plays a more important role.
Interestingly, 30% of Millennials with smartphones don’t use any
banking apps (from their bank, or 3rd-party banking apps). Of
those that don’t use banking apps, 45% said they prefer not to
conduct banking-related activities on their mobile device.
Opportunity One might expect a text heavy generation like Millennials to
exclusively prefer SMS or mobile app notifications for
communications, but that isn’t always the case. Often email
trumps both text and mobile app notifications as the preferred
digital means for push notifications. Banks need a
comprehensive and analytic-based communications
infrastructure to understand each consumer, and deliver the right
messages via the right channels.
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Customer channel usage to research and apply for bank products (global)
Source: Capgemini World Retail Banking Report 2015 and CIBC World Markets Inc.
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Daily media minutes for US 18-24 year olds, 2009-2016 in Q1
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Source: Nielsen Total Audience Report
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Time spent watching video content by device, US, among 14-25 year olds
Base: Respondents aged 14-25 (424 respondents)
Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy Survey US, Ninth edition, November 2014
Of the time you spend watching movies/TV shows/sports/user-generated content,
what percentage do you watch on the following devices?
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Traditional television remains resilient, even in the US US TV is approaching a plateau, not a fall; it is eroding, not imploding
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US Pay TV subscribers (millions)
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100.3 100.4 100.4 100.3 100.1 99.3 98.1
0
20
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120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
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Pay TV penetration (US only)
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Sample Pay TV monthly rates in Brooklyn, 1992-2014
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50
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2014 2015 2016
US Daily Traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q1
Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Source: Nielsen
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Source: Nielsen Three Screen Report Q1 2010, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014,
Nielsen Total Audience Report Q1 2015, and Deloitte Global estimate for Q1 2016
Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
-30%
-20%
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US TV viewing by 18-24 year olds 2010-2016
Daily live + time shifted minutes of TV Annual change - right hand axis
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
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Widely used cognitive technologies
Graphic: Deloitte University Press | DUPress.com
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Global 2016: 71%
Canada 2016: 68%
Weekly use of standard voice calling among smartphone owners (2012-2015)
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Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, 2015
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-75
‘Data exclusive’ mobile users, by age group, developed countries, 2015
Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, 2015
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0% 20% 40% 60%
Text
Phone Call - Dial Number
Social Network
Phone Call - Using an App
Video call
Preferred Method of Communication on Smartphone
(Among Smartphone Owners/Users n=672) MIL GX BMR
49% 56% 49%
28% 28% 37%
6% 7% 6%
10% 5% 5%
4% 2% 2%
4% 2% 1%
Source: Ipsos Reid Custom Deloitte Study (data collected Jan 2016)
Among those who own/use a Smartphone (Mil. n=67 / Gen Xers n=330 / Boomers n=234)
Q8. What is your preferred method of communicating with your friends and family on your Smartphone? Select
one
OVERALL Milenials
(19 - 33)
Gen X
(34 - 50)
Boomers
(51 - 69)
672 67 330 234
Text 51% 49% 56% 49%
Phone Call – Dial
31% 28% 28% 37%
Email 6% 6% 7% 6%
Social Network
6% 10% 5% 5%
Phone Call – App
3% 4% 2% 2%
Video Call
2% 4% 2% 1%
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$360
$1,040
2016 - $1.4T
FCM Traditional
IT spending market for data centers, software and IT services
($ billions)
$530
$970
2018 - $1.5T
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TMT Predictions tailored events
Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation
for your office/industry.
• Email Duncan: [email protected]
• Follow him on Twitter: @dunstewart
• Connect on LinkedIn
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• Read his blog: dunstewart.wordpress.com
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