october 30 november 19, 2015 - iri...lack of democracy hartals one-sided election violence...
TRANSCRIPT
Bangladesh Survey of Public Opinion
October 30 – November 19, 2015
Detailed Methodology• The survey was conducted by Nielsen-Bangladesh under the supervision of Mr. Rob Varsalone of Global
Strategic Partners and the International Republican Institute between October 30 – November 19, 2015.
• Data was collected using a multi-stage stratified probability sample and through in-person, in-homeinterviews. The sample was stratified by the seven administrative divisions, by district and by urbanand rural locations.
• The sample consisted of 2,550 respondents (response rate: 43 percent) aged 18 and older, and wasrepresentative of voting-age adults nationally.
• The sample was distributed into 255 primary sampling units (PSU) from all 64 districts of all sevendivisions. PSUs were defined as mouza in rural areas and as mahalla in urban areas.
• The probability-proportional-to-size method was used to select localities. After identifying a centrallylocated starting point, the Date Method was used to select the first house and then Systematic RandomSampling was used to select the appropriate household. Within each household, the Kish Grid was thenused to select respondents 18 years and older.
• Interview teams were comprised of both males and females.
• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus two percent at the mid-range with a confidencelevel of 95 percent.
• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for marketand social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due torounding.
2
A Majority Believe Bangladesh is Headed in the Right Direction
Do you believe things in Bangladesh are heading in the right direction, or are they heading in the wrong direction?
4
33%35%
56%
62%64%
62%
59%
39%36%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Sep 2014 Jun 2015 Nov 2015
Right Direction Wrong Direction
Why do you say right direction?(Those responding right direction, n=1,639)
5
1%
1%
1%
6%
18%
72%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Declining Terrorism
More Jobs
More Electricity Production
Better Economy
Development in Transportation System
Education Improvement
Why do you say wrong direction?(Those responding wrong direction, n=804)
6
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
10%
30%
48%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
One-Sided Government
Low Prices of Agricultural Products
Poor Quality of Education
Bad Law and Order Situation
Electricity Crisis
Hartals*
Corruption Increased
Personal Finances
No Jobs
Poor Transportation System
Price Hikes
Political Instability
*Hartals refer to violent protests that cause sectors of the economy to close down.
Overall, how would you rate the current security conditions in Bangladesh?
7
26%
29%
29%
41%
39%
51%
17%
14%
11%
16%
16%
9%
1%
2%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2015
Very Good Somewhat Good Somewhat Bad Very Bad Don't Know/No Response
Overall, how would you rate the current political stability in Bangladesh?
8
19%
22%
21%
40%
42%
49%
22%
11%
9%
16%
18%
13%
3%
7%
8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2015
Very Stable Somewhat Stable Somewhat Unstable Very Unstable Don't Know/No Response
Why do you think the situation is unstable?(Those responding unstable, open-ended)
3%
5%
6%
6%
9%
9%
20%
20%
21%
35%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Policy Concerns
Abductions
Political Parties are Bad
Corruption/Abuse of Power
Opposition is Under Attack
Lack of Democracy
Hartals
One-Sided Election
Violence Increasing
Fighting
Nov 2015n=551
9Multiple responses were allowed.
Thinking some more about the political stability of Bangladesh, in the year ahead do you think that it will improve, worsen or stay
the same?
10
48%
50%
15%
17%
20%
13%
17%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Jun2015
Nov2015
Improve Same Worsen Don't Know/No Response
People Are Increasingly Optimistic about Their Economic Future
Overall, how would you rate the current economic conditions in Bangladesh?
12
22%
28%
30%
47%
44%
49%
19%
14%
12%
11%
12%
7%
1%
2%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2015
Very Good Somewhat Good Somewhat Bad Very Bad Don't Know/No Response
Thinking about the personal economic situation of you and your family, in the past year has it improved, worsened or stayed the
same?
13
49%
61%
65%
21%
19%
18%
29%
19%
17%
1%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2015
Improved Same Worsened Don't Know/No Response
Thinking some more about the personal economic situation of you and your family, in the coming year do you think it will improve,
worsen or stay the same?
14
60%
63%
72%
16%
13%
10%
14%
10%
5%
10%
14%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2015
Improve Same Worsen Don't Know/No Response
Do you and your family have enough income to afford basic commodities (rice, milk, eggs, fish, dhal*, etc.) in the market?
15
78%
86%
90%
21%
13%
10%
1%
1%
Sep 2014
Jun 2015
Nov 2015
Yes No Don't Know/No Response
*Dhal is the Bengali term for lentils, a regional dietary staple.
Do you expect the price of basic commodities to be higher or lower six months from now?
16
24%
23%
12%
60%
55%
49%
9%
8%
12%
5%
5%
12%
1%
2%
2%
1%
7%
13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep 2014
Jun 2015
Nov 2015
Much Higher Slightly Higher Same Slightly Lower Much Lower Don't Know/No Response
As the Economy Improves, Democracy Endures
In Bangladesh, if you could only have one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a
prosperous economy?
18
58%
59%
43%
7%
9%
8%
20%
14%
13%
10%
13%
32%
4%
5%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2015
Democracy is Definitely More Important Democracy is Somewhat More Important
Prosperity is Somewhat More Important Prosperity is Definitely More Important
Don't Know/Refused to Answer
In Bangladesh, if you could only have one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a
prosperous economy?(Disaggregated by Age and Gender)
19
Prosperity is
Definitely More
Important to Me
Prosperity is
Somewhat More
Important to Me
Democracy is
Somewhat More
Important to Me
Democracy is
Definitely More
Important to Me
Don't
Know/Refused
Male 27% 13% 7% 49% 4%
Female 37% 12% 9% 37% 6%
18-30 33% 15% 6% 41% 5%
31-40 31% 13% 9% 43% 4%
41-50 35% 11% 8% 41% 6%
51-60 26% 10% 10% 45% 8%
61+ 33% 6% 5% 48% 8%
When you hear the word democracy, what first comes to your mind?(Open-ended)
20
Response Percent
Ensuring the Rights of All Parties 16%
Holding of Elections 15%
Freedom of Expression 11%
Bangladesh Is an Independent Country 6%
Freedom of Movement 2%
Other 10%
Don’t Know/Refused to Answer 40%
Of the following statements, would you say you agree or disagree?
21
November 2015Strongly
Agree
Somewhat
Agree
Somewhat
Disagree
Strongly
Disagree
Don’t
Know/No
Response
In a democracy the economic system
runs badly.11% 29% 36% 24% -
Democracies are indecisive & have
too much quarreling.17% 36% 32% 14% 1%
Democracies aren’t good at
maintaining law & order.10% 28% 39% 22% 1%
Democracy might have problems, but
it is still better than any other form
of government.
58% 30% 9% 3% -
Government Maintains Support
Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by the…?
23
41%
43%
46%
59%
66%
67%
72%
73%
74%
76%
80%
83%
86%
48%
42%
50%
62%
72%
77%
75%
72%
77%
81%
89%
89%
95%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Opposition
Police
Political Parties
Election Commission
Government
Prime Minister
Deputy Commissioner
High Court
Upazila Parishad
Rapid Action Battalion
Civil Society
Media
Army
(Favorability)
Nov 2015 Jun 2015
For each of the following issues, how would you rate the national government’s performance?
24
47%
56%
58%
58%
59%
59%
59%
61%
62%
65%
67%
67%
68%
70%
72%
72%
73%
78%
84%
49%
25%
37%
39%
24%
39%
19%
12%
21%
27%
27%
23%
30%
24%
23%
17%
25%
17%
13%
4%
19%
5%
3%
17%
2%23%
27%
16%
8%
6%
10%
3%
6%
6%
11%
3%
5%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Fighting Corruption
Democratic Reforms
Employment
Fighting Crime
Housing
Inflation
Land Rights
Ending Ethnic Conflict
Ending Sectarian Conflict
Poverty Reduction
Dealing with Hartals
Keeping the Peace
Electricity Availability
Water Availability
Water and Sanitation
Gender Equality
Infrastructure Development
Healthcare
Education
Good Bad Don't Know/No Response
Can you tell me which party best reflects each of the statements below?
25
38%
35%
39%
29%
30%
34%
25%
23%
22%
28%
22%
21%
20%
27%
24%
35%
21%
22%
19%
24%
41%
44%
41%
45%
47%
32%
54%
55%
59%
48%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
They Consistently Fight Corruption
Their Policies Help the Poor
They Care about People Like Me
They Support Democratic Reform
They Have Good Policies
They are More Religious
They Support Women
They Have Many Young Leaders
They Have Strong Leadership
They are Trustworthy
Awami League Bangladesh Nationalist Party Neither/Don't Know/No Response
Can you tell me which party best reflects each of the statements below?
26
29%
36%
30%
32%
24%
22%
21%
15%
24%
19%
24%
23%
25%
20%
22%
22%
46%
45%
47%
45%
50%
59%
58%
63%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
They Would Maintain Political Stability
They Would End Ethnic Conflict
They Would Strengthen the Nation
They Would Improve the Economy
They Would Improve Security
They Would Improve Healthcare
They Would Improve Infrastructure
They Would Improve Education
Awami League Bangladesh Nationalist Party Neither/Don't Know/No Response
27
What are the three most important problems facing Bangladesh?(Open-ended)
Issue First Mention Second Mention Third Mention Total
Corruption 18% 8% 6% 32%
Security/Law and Order 13% 8% 4% 25%
Unemployment 13% 13% 7% 33%
Political Instability 11% 6% 4% 21%
Transportation/Traffic 11% 10% 7% 28%
Electricity/Gas 5% 6% 4% 15%
Political Reforms 2% 3% 3% 8%
Poverty 2% 4% 5% 11%
Price Hikes 1% 1% 1% 3%
Low Prices for Commodities 1% 1% 0% 2%
Extremism 1% 1% 1% 3%
Don’t Know/Refused to Answer 9% 20% 46% -
What are the three most important problems facing Bangladesh?(Open-ended)
Comparison of Previous Survey Data
28
Issue Nov 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2014 Jan 2014 Nov 2013
Corruption 18% 24% 20% 36% 20%
Economy* 17% 11% 13% 7% 23%
Security/Law and Order 13% 15% 9% 11% 11%
Political Instability 11% 16% 13% 39% 34%
Transportation/Traffic/Infrastructure 11% 6% 17% 1% 3%
*Economy includes unemployment, poverty, price hikes, and low prices for commodities the from previous slide.
Thinking now about the problem of corruption, can you give me an example of how it impacts your daily life?
29
2%
1%
1%
1%
3%
3%
4%
4%
81%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Don't Know/No Response
In Business Sector
Bribe School
Bribe Court
To Get Government Service
To Get Healthcare
Bribe Police
To Get a Job
No Impact
Have you ever paid a bribe or given a gift to a government employee or official in order to obtain a
license, permit, or service?
30
4%
96%
4%
96%
Have you ever paid a bribe or given a gift to a government employee or official so as to receive job
consideration?
9%
91%
Have you ever paid a bribe or given a gift to the police or a court?
7%
93%
Have you ever paid a bribe or given a gift to obtain health services in a public clinic or hospital?
Yes No
Elections
Thinking now about elections, when would you like to see the next national parliamentary elections occur?
32
51%
1% 1% 1%3%
36%
40%
2% 2% 1%
5%
43%45%
2% 1% 1%4%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
The ParliamentShould
Complete ItsTerm
Within theNext Four
Years
Within theNext Three
Years
Within theNext Two
Years
Within theNext Year
As Soon asPossible
Nov 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2014
Agree or Disagree?Voting gives me a chance to influence decision-making in the
country.
33
69%
67%
69%
25%
21%
23%
2%
5%
4%
2%
5%
2%
2%
1%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2015
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree Don't Know/No Response
How likely are you to vote in the next elections?
34
84%
13%
1%1% 1%
Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely
Don't Know/Refusedto Answer
1%
2%
10%
24%
39%
44%
60%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Don't Know/No Response
Religious Group/Religious Leaders
Civil Society Organizations
Village/Community Leaders
Political Party/Candidate Platforms
Media
Family Members
Where do you get information related to candidates and political parties?
What or who influences your voting decision the most?
1%
4%
7%
8%
8%
25%
47%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Don't Know/No Response
Civil Society Organizations
Media
Village/Community Leaders
Political Party/Candidate Platforms
No One
Family Members
35
Where do you get information related to candidates and political parties? (Disaggregated by Gender and Age)
36
Male Female 18-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+
Political Party Platforms 53% 25% 36% 39% 42% 44% 42%
Civil Society 13% 8% 12% 9% 9% 9% 10%
Family 39% 80% 63% 62% 55% 54% 47%
Village/Community
Leaders33% 15% 22% 23% 24% 28% 32%
Religious Groups 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Media 49% 37% 44% 42% 47% 43% 34%
Social Media 1% 1% 2% 1%
Don't Know/No Response 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2%
What or who influences your voting decision the most?(Disaggregated by Gender and Age)
37
Male Female 18-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+
Political Party Platforms 12% 4% 6% 9% 8% 9% 12%
Civil Society 6% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4%
Family 23% 71% 51% 49% 47% 40% 28%
Village/Community
Leaders13% 2% 6% 7% 8% 11% 11%
Religious Groups 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Media 12% 3% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7%
No One 34% 18% 24% 23% 24% 30% 35%
Don't Know/Refused 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4%
From which type of media are you most likely to get your news?
38
59%
34%
2% 1% 1% 1%
TV Word of Mouth Newspapers Radio Internet Social Media
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Which TV station do you most often watch?(Those answering TV, n=1,498)
39
7%
2%
1%
2%
3%
3%
4%
6%
7%
10%
14%
18%
23%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Don't Know/Refused
Other
MyTV
Ch 24
BanglaVision
Ch 71
ETV
Ch i
RTV
NTV
ATN
BTV
Somoy
Do you believe the Bangladesh Election Commission is completely fair
and independent?
34%
38%
33%
34%
14%
23%
25%
25%
9%
14%
10%
13%
33%
16%
21%
16%
9%
9%
11%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Jan 2014
Sep 2014
Jun 2015
Nov 2015
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Don't Know/No Response40
Should a non-party, caretaker government be brought back
before the next parliamentary elections?
77%
68%
67%
68%
18%
25%
22%
23%
5%
8%
11%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Jan 2014
Sep 2014
Jun 2015
Nov 2015
Yes No Don't Know/No Response41
Women & Youth
Agree or Disagree?Women are equally represented in political decision-making
positions in Bangladesh.
43
51%
38%
38%
29%
43%
33%
11%
12%
13%
9%
7%
7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2014
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree
Agree or disagree?Politicians don’t listen to the needs and ideas of women.
44
16%
23%
28%
22%
12%
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Don't Know/NoResponse
If there are two candidates running for office and they are exactly the same aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a
woman, which candidate would you prefer?
45
58%
56%
54%
29%
23%
23%
15%
21%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sep2014
Jun2015
Nov2015
Man Woman No Difference
If there are two candidates running for office and they are exactly the same aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a
woman, which candidate would you prefer?
46
By Gender Nov 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2014
Men/Prefer Man 77% 69% 79%
Men/Prefer Woman 5% 10% 7%
Men/No Difference 16% 21% 14%
Women/Prefer Man 31% 42% 34%
Women/Prefer Woman 41% 37% 51%
Women/No Difference 24% 32% 16%
Agree or Disagree? Politicians listen to the needs and ideas of young people.
47
23%
21%
33%
21%
26%
23%
18%
19% 16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Jun2015
Nov2015
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Don't Know/Refused to Answer
Agree or Disagree? Politicians listen to the needs and ideas of young people.
Disaggregated by age
48
20%
20%
20%
24%
23%
20%
22%
23%
19%
17%
24%
24%
23%
18%
18%
20%
17%
14%
24%
26%
16%
16%
20%
14%
17%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
18-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61+
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Don't Know/No Response
Monthly Household IncomeLess Than 5,000 taka* 5%
5,001-10,000 taka 35%
10,001-15,000 taka 29%
15,001-20,000 taka 15%
20,001-25,000 taka 7%
25,001-30,000 taka 5%
30,001-35,000 taka 1%
35,001 taka or Greater 3%
DivisionDhaka 32%
Chittagong 20%
Rajshahi 13%
Khulna 11%
Rangpur 11%
Sylhet 7%
Barisal 6%
ReligionMuslim 87%
Hindu 12%
Buddhist 1%
GenderMale 50%
Female 50%
EducationIlliterate 22%
Literate/No Formal Schooling 7%
Class 1-4 15%
Class 5-9 35%
Secondary School
Certificate/Dakhil
9%
Higher Secondary Certificate 8%
Bachelor of Arts/Bachelor of
Science
3%
Graduate Degree 1%
Age18-30 years 39%
31-40 years 24%
41-50 years 18%
51-60 years 11%
61 Years and Older 8%
Area Urban 27%
Rural 73%
Demographics
*At the time of survey release, one Bangladeshi taka was equivalent to $0.013 USD.
49