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Ground Truth:Ground Truth:Using Data to Explore What’s Really Happening at the Using Data to Explore What’s Really Happening at the

Local LevelLocal Level

Hall County Justice for Children Summit

October 9, 2008October 9, 2008Beth LockerBeth Locker

Deputy Project DirectorGA Supreme Court Committee on Justice for Children)

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The New Child Welfare EnvironmentChild and Family Services Review, aka the

CFSR, aka the “Federal Review”– Transforming from a compliance-driven system to an

outcome-driven system.• Process Target: 80% of investigations completed in 90 days.

• Outcome Target: 94.6% of victims are safe from re-abuse within 6 months.

– This requires the field to learn to use data to manage toward positive outcomes for children and families.

– 7/16/2001: GA’s first on-site review– 5/14/2007: GA’s second on-site review

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Is Georgia adequately measuring outcomes now?Is Georgia adequately measuring outcomes now?

How do you think Hall County is doing compared How do you think Hall County is doing compared to other parts of the state? to other parts of the state?

Is Hall County?Is Hall County?

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So what data are we focusing on today?

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• AFCARS: Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System– Federal DHHS/ACF requirement– Cover the Foster Care half of the business– Adoption & foster care data records for “most recent removal

episode”

• NCANDS: National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System– Covers the Child Protection side of the business (sometimes called

the Safety data)– Data records of children with disposed maltreatment reports– As of 2005(?) “Child File” (certain fields) Federal DHHS/ACF requirement– 45 out of 52 (states+DC+PR) sent Child File to DHHS in 2005

AFCARS & NCANDS Datasets

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• Advantages:– Already being collected

(Most states sending data every 6 months, March/September, since 1997)

– Can calculate outcome measures, beyond process measures.

– Gives us standardized definitions, e.g.:• Date of Latest Removal: Date the child was removed from his/her home for

the purpose of being placed into foster care

• Discharge Reason #1: Reunified with parent or primary caretaker (child returned to his/her principal caretaker’s home)

– We are able to compare across geographies (county, state) and many years -- the value of that is HUGE.

Why Use AgencyAFCARS & NCANDS Data?

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• Georgia DFCS provided us (FCI, OCA & J4C) with data from 10/1998 through 3/2008

• Processed into a longitudinal file and reported for major geographic regions: counties, DHR regions, court circuits and districts– 231 geographic regions, 1400 web pages 231 geographic regions, 1400 web pages

containing 15000 charts (and that’s just Georgia)containing 15000 charts (and that’s just Georgia)

• The website is for building these presentations. It is not user-friendly, not for a general audience, does not have technical explanations.

How Do We Use the Agency Data?

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FCI Summary StatisticsHall County stats on handout ...

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A Child’s Contact Points with Hall’s Child Welfare System• Raw Reports

• Investigation

• Substantiation as Victim

• Removal to Foster Care

• Time in State Custody

• Discharge from Foster Care

• Re-Report• Re-

Substantiation(Re-Victimization)

• Reentry to Foster Care

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Child Welfare Dashboard

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Child Protective Services ...

•CPS

•Entries

•In Care

•Exits

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Investigations of Investigations of MaltreatmentMaltreatment

• Hall County Hall County investigates investigates 23.323.3 children per 10,000 children per 10,000 in the population in the population (per (per month)month)

• Peak: nearPeak: near 8080 in Q1 in Q1 20042004

• 7-Year Average: 397-Year Average: 39

• Statewide, we Statewide, we investigate a similar investigate a similar number, number, 22.922.9 children per 10Kchildren per 10K

Hall: Children Investigated

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Victims of MaltreatmentVictims of Maltreatment

• Hall County DFCS Hall County DFCS substantiates substantiates 10.710.7 children per 10,000 in children per 10,000 in the population the population (per (per

month)month) as victims as victims• Peak: near Peak: near 3535 in Q1 in Q1

20042004

• 7-Year Average: 177-Year Average: 17

• Statewide, we Statewide, we substantiate at the substantiate at the same rate (10.7)same rate (10.7)

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Victims of Repeat Victims of Repeat MaltreatmentMaltreatment

• First 6 months of CY2007:First 6 months of CY2007:32 of Hall’s 744 32 of Hall’s 744 victims of victims of maltreatment (maltreatment (4.3%4.3%) ) were re-victimized were re-victimized within 6 months.within 6 months.

• Statewide, Statewide, 3.2%3.2% are are re-victimized within 6 re-victimized within 6 months.months.

• National Std. <= National Std. <= 5.4%5.4%

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Victims of Repeat Victims of Repeat MaltreatmentMaltreatment

• Another look at this: Another look at this: % re-victimized by % re-victimized by months from initial months from initial victimizationvictimization

• Slightly different time Slightly different time frame, and frame, and historicalhistorical vs. vs. most recentmost recent data.data.

• Re-victimizationRe-victimization in in Hall is much lower Hall is much lower than in the previous 6 than in the previous 6 years.years.

Hall Historical

Hall Recent

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Victims of Repeat Victims of Repeat MaltreatmentMaltreatmentRemoval StatusRemoval Status• Yet another look at Yet another look at this:this:

• Comparing Comparing removedremoved (to foster care)(to foster care) vs. vs. non-non-removedremoved children’s children’s rates of re-rates of re-victimization during victimization during latest 12 months.latest 12 months.

• The 2 groups are re-The 2 groups are re-victimized at similar victimized at similar rates. Is removal rates. Is removal more protective?more protective?

Hall Non-RemovedHall Removed

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On to Foster Care Entries ...

•CPS

•Entries

•In Care

•Exits

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Removals to Foster CareRemovals to Foster Care

• Hall County removes Hall County removes about 4 children per about 4 children per month, that’s month, that’s 0.80.8 per per 10,000 in the 10,000 in the population per monthpopulation per month• Lowest among the larger Lowest among the larger

countiescounties

• Hall substantiates at the Hall substantiates at the state rate, but removes state rate, but removes only 8% of their only 8% of their substantiated victims.substantiated victims.

• Statewide, we Statewide, we remove remove 2.52.5 children children per 10Kper 10K

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Reentry to Foster CareReentry to Foster Care• Of the 49 children Of the 49 children

removed from April removed from April 2007 to March 2008:2007 to March 2008:

– 8.2%8.2% (4 children), (4 children),had been previously had been previously discharged from foster discharged from foster care during the preceding care during the preceding 12 months12 months

– 12.2%12.2% (6 children), (6 children),had had everever been previously been previously discharged from foster discharged from foster carecare

– Both lower than Both lower than statewide rates of statewide rates of 8.5%8.5% and and 16.4%16.4% respectivelyrespectively Chart shows full calendar year data, to minimize

variability, but numbers are most recent 12 months

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Length of Stay of New Length of Stay of New EntriesEntries

• Here’s some Here’s some perspective:perspective:

• A Hall child entering A Hall child entering care in early 1999 care in early 1999 could expect to spend could expect to spend close to close to 40 months 40 months in foster care.in foster care.

• Today, new entries Today, new entries can expect a stay of can expect a stay of 12 months12 months..

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On to the In-Care Cohort ...

•CPS

•Entries

•In Care

•Exits

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Foster Care PopulationFoster Care Population

• Hall County had Hall County had 101 children in 101 children in care on 3/31/2008care on 3/31/2008

• That’s 20 children per That’s 20 children per 10,000 in the 10,000 in the population in foster population in foster carecare– 43 per 10K statewide, 43 per 10K statewide,

so Hall is less than halfso Hall is less than half

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Foster Care Length of StayFoster Care Length of Stay

• Minimizing not just the number, Minimizing not just the number, but also the time children spend but also the time children spend in care ...in care ...

• Hall: 36 of the 111 children in care on 3/31/2007 (32%) achieved permanency by 3/31/2008.– Statewide = 42%

• Below state since late 2005

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Foster Care Placement Foster Care Placement SettingsSettings

• Congregate Care Congregate Care Utilization:Utilization:– Group Homes + Group Homes +

InstitutionsInstitutions– Hall =Hall = 30% 30%, well , well

above state rate of above state rate of 19%19%

– Has been higher than Has been higher than state for many yearsstate for many years

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Foster Care Placement Foster Care Placement SettingsSettings

• Young Children in Young Children in Group Settings:Group Settings:– Group settings mostly Group settings mostly

for teensfor teens• 83% are over 12 years 83% are over 12 years

old (79% statewide)old (79% statewide)– In 1999-2000 less In 1999-2000 less

than half of children in than half of children in group settings were group settings were teens.teens.• Huge improvement in 8 Huge improvement in 8

yearsyears

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Foster Care Placement Foster Care Placement StabilityStability

• Two or Fewer Two or Fewer Placement Placement Settings:Settings:– Assessment + Assessment +

Recommended Recommended Placement = 2Placement = 2

– Stability of new entries Stability of new entries dipped below the dipped below the national 75th national 75th percentile but is back percentile but is back up in last year.up in last year.

– Stability of long term Stability of long term care placements is well care placements is well above state and above state and national 75national 75thth percentile. percentile.

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And Finally, Exits from Foster Care ...

•CPS

•Entries

•In Care

•Exits

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Exits to PermanencyExits to Permanency

• Hall reunifies and adopts Hall reunifies and adopts near state rate.near state rate.

Exits without Permanency?Exits without Permanency?• Hall emancipates Hall emancipates (11% vs. (11% vs.

8%)8%) and discharges to and discharges to runaway runaway (4% vs. 1%)(4% vs. 1%) above above state rates.state rates.– Actual numbers are small Actual numbers are small

but potentially at great but potentially at great cost to those childrencost to those children

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ReunificationReunification

• Last year, Hall Last year, Hall reunified 29 reunified 29 children children (out of 61 (out of 61 discharged, 48%)discharged, 48%)– Start slow, Start slow,

accelerate after 6 accelerate after 6 monthsmonths•0 within 72 hours0 within 72 hours•20 (69%) within 12 20 (69%) within 12

months months (s.w. 71%, nat. (s.w. 71%, nat. target 75%)target 75%)

– Median time to Median time to reunificaition = reunificaition = 10.4 months 10.4 months (s.w. 7.1)(s.w. 7.1)

Termination of Parental Rights (TPR)

• 16% of those with TPR 16% of those with TPR on 3/31/2007 achieved on 3/31/2007 achieved permanency w/i 12 permanency w/i 12 months (vs. 32% s.w.)months (vs. 32% s.w.)

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• 72% of children in 72% of children in non-relative care over non-relative care over 24 months have both 24 months have both TPRs (vs. 38% s.w.)TPRs (vs. 38% s.w.)

Major Public Policy Major Public Policy DebateDebate

• Median time to TPR = Median time to TPR = 12.1 months (22.4 12.1 months (22.4 s.w.)s.w.)

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AdoptionAdoption

• Last year 7 DFCS Last year 7 DFCS children were children were adopted in Hall adopted in Hall County County (out of 61 (out of 61 discharged, 11%)discharged, 11%)..– 3 (43%) within 24 3 (43%) within 24

months months (s.w. 22%, nat. (s.w. 22%, nat. target 37%)target 37%)

– All were adopted All were adopted within 48 months within 48 months

– Median time = 25.0 months Median time = 25.0 months (s.w. 33.4 months)(s.w. 33.4 months)

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Hall CountyHall CountyData SummaryData Summary

StrengthsStrengths ChallengesChallenges

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Data and charts (including Data and charts (including semi-annual updates) semi-annual updates) available at:available at:www.FosteringCourtImprovement.org/gawww.FosteringCourtImprovement.org/ga

Contact Beth anytime for assistance with interpreting them…

Beth Locker404-463-5227lockerb@gaaoc.us