octobre 23rd, 2015 london€¦ · maize imports to the uk – main origins data: eurostat, french...

• 1

French grains

and

international market conditions

Octobre 23rd, 2015

London

• 2

� A dull demand VS plentiful availabilities

� EU market: the French production makes an exception

�French balances: a competition-related challenge

� French cereals to the UK: a flow gaining momentum

2015/16: a marketing year under maximum pressure

• 3

British

cereals import needs

and countries of origin

• 4

23 15 17 15

5792

7154

18

25 54

19

56

12

5

52

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 (pr)

1 00

0 t,

Jul

y/Ju

ne

others

PL

EE

FI

PT

DK

DE

IE

FR

BARLEY imports to the UK – main origins

data: Eurostat

125 kt

95 kt

Main origins, adding up to 80% (or over) of total imports

« Others » : per mktg year

156 kt

237 kt

96 kt

• 5

557330 276

597446

157

223

128 116

1 061

218 163

366

308 299

328

363

281

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15(pr)

1 00

0 t,

July

/Jun

e

others

US

CAN

BG

PL

IE

DK

DE

FR

Soft WHEAT imports to the UK – main origins

data: Eurostat

965 kt

2,9 Mt

2,1 Mt



843 kt

1,6 Mt

• 6

447 588 601 572 692

442

712

218

234151

313182

169

154182157

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 (pr)

1 00

0 t,

Jul

y/Ju

ne

others

UKR

CAN

ARG

PL

IE

BG

RO

FR

MAIZE imports to the UK – main origins

data: Eurostat, French Customs

1,0 Mt 1,0 Mt

1,7 Mt

2,4 Mt



1,750 Mt

• 7

The 2015/16 marketing year

on the international market

Competition at its highest

• 8

External factors… powerful factors

data: ECB / La Dépêche / IGC

Crude oil price Ocean freight rates (BDI)

>>> distant places become « nearer »

Inde

x po

ints

>>> inputs & freightcosts>>> biofuels profitability>>> oil exportingcountries revenue

Exchange rate €/$

>>> -11 % / Y-1+ 1 % / m-1

1,05

1,09

1,13

1,17

1,21

1,25

1,2921

/10/

1421

/11/

1421

/12/

1421

/01/

1521

/02/

1521

/03/

1521

/04/

1521

/05/

1521

/06/

1521

/07/

1521

/08/

1521

/09/

1521

/10/

15

1 €

= ...

$

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

15/1

0/14

15/1

1/14

15/1

2/14

15/0

1/15

15/0

2/15

15/0

3/15

15/0

4/15

15/0

5/15

15/0

6/15

15/0

7/15

15/0

8/15

15/0

9/15

15/1

0/15

Bre

nt, $

/bar

il500600700800900

1 0001 1001 2001 3001 4001 500

21/1

0/14

21/1

1/14

21/1

2/14

21/0

1/15

21/0

2/15

21/0

3/15

21/0

4/15

21/0

5/15

21/0

6/15

21/0

7/15

21/0

8/15

21/0

9/15

21/1

0/15

• 9

World WHEAT fundamentals & prices

data: IGC

0

145

290

435

580

725

06/

07

07/

08

08/

09

09/

10

10/

11

11/

12

12/

13

13/

14

14/

15

15/

16

Mt

prod.

closing st.

use

(720) 727RECORD

(707) 719

(202) 211RECORD

Closing stocks / Use ratio

29%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

06/

07

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

350

20/1

0/14

20/1

1/14

20/1

2/14

20/0

1/15

20/0

2/15

20/0

3/15

20/0

4/15

20/0

5/15

20/0

6/15

20/0

7/15

20/0

8/15

20/0

9/15

20/1

0/15

Argentina

Australia ASW

Black Sea (milling)

Canada CWRS

France FCW1

Germany B

UK (feed)

US HRW

US SRW

• 10

WHEAT world trade

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

16006

/07

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

Mt

data: IGC, 24/09/15

- 0,413,513,9Flour

<> Crops (+) in the EU & North Africa

<> Availabilities in low & medium quality wheat, feed interest in Asia (CIF price)

- 3,6115,3118,9Millingwheat

- 1,28,19,3Durum

12,0

148,8

2015/16

+ 0,711,3Feedwheat

<> Crops (+) Middle East & North Africa

- 4,6153,4Total wheat

change2014/15

•Ukrainian crop: 60 % feed (x2 / p.y.)

• Brasilian feed wheat (rain at harvest): very competitive offers

• 11

World wheat: the price war is raging

175

185

195

205

215

225

21/0

9/15

23/0

9/15

25/0

9/15

27/0

9/15

29/0

9/15

01/1

0/15

03/1

0/15

05/1

0/15

07/1

0/15

09/1

0/15

11/1

0/15

13/1

0/15

15/1

0/15

17/1

0/15

19/1

0/15

$/t,

FO

BBlack Sea(milling)

France FCW1

Germany B

US SRW

• Rising Ukr. feed wheat prices (exporters covering sales to Asian compouders)

24 200)(Prod.

13 000Forecast

43%5 6072 330Septembre

25%3 2772 201August

8%1 0761 076July

shipped / forecast

Mktg year to date2015/16

Data: UACExports, 1 000 t

data: CIC ; UAC

• French price: at parity withBlack Sea

• Rising Russian prices (firmRUB, intervention priceincrease)

• recent deals: very agressive prices out of the EU

• 12

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

FR

DE

UK PL

RO ES

HU

DK

BG CZ

2014/15 2015/16

EU – WHEAT production

Data: EC (24/09/15) except FR: FranceAgriMer

1 00

0 t

+9%

- 5%

- 8%

- 15%- 10%

(2014/15)150 Mt

(2015/16)145,7 Mt

• 13

EU – WHEAT S&D estimate

EXPORT licencesgrains – season total at week 15 (13/10/15)

4848 48

1111 11

1199

149145

135

332

4352 52

283330

15119

13/14 14/15 15/16

Mt,

Jul/J

une

Op. st. prod. Imp. Food Indus.

Feed Seeds Losses Exp. Cl. st.

Common Wheat S&D

(grains + 1st transf.)

?

Data: EC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

S1 S3 S5 S7 S9 S11 S13 S15

hebd

o, 1

000

t

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

cumul, 1 000 t

sour

ce :

CE

hebdo 15/16 hebdo 14/15

cumul 15/16 cumul 14/15

- 17 % y.o.y.

• 14

World BARLEY fundamentals & prices

(141) 140

(26) 27

(141) 139

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

Mt

Prod.

Closing st.

Use

data: CIC


21%

14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%

06/

07

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

20/1

0/14

20/1

1/14

20/1

2/14

20/0

1/15

20/0

2/15

20/0

3/15

20/0

4/15

20/0

5/15

20/0

6/15

20/0

7/15

20/0

8/15

20/0

9/15

20/1

0/15

$/t,

FO

B

Arg. feed

Austr. (Eastern St.) feed

Aust (Eastern St.) malting

Black Sea feed

France (Rouen) feed

Germ. (Hamburg) feed

• 15

World BARLEY market: what level of competition shall wesee?

8,68,09,2(April/March) barley prod.

15/1614/1513/14Data: ABARES, 15/09/15

dryness & temperatures should rise by the end of 2015

>>> decrease in grain yields (& grass)?>>> impact on exportable surplus?

8 060(Prod.

3 400Forecast

85%2 877782Septembre

62%2 0951 121August

29%974974July

shipped / forecast

Mktg yearto date2015/16

Data: UACExports, 1 000 t

� Ukraine : how much is left?Ukraine : sold out?

Russia ~ 1/3 done

Baltique: almost sold out?

>>> towards a tight world barleyS&D situation?

� Australia : how much will there be?

?

• 16

China: what level of support to the feed market in 2015/16 ?Restrictive import measures & a struggling economy

A burdensome domestic maize stock to drawdown

- Since January 2015 : Maize import licences subordinate to purchase made out of intervention stock

- 2015/16 : maize support price expected to decrease

- since September 1st, 2015 : Barley , sorghum, distillers’ grains import licences introduced

- Currently: Quality controls at ports (unloadingdelays)

Australian prices down , reflecting less Chinese demand

>>> towards a heavy barley S&D situation?

0

10

20

30

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

2014

/15

2015

/16

orge part Chine

27 %

Barley trade China imports

A game changingfactor in 2014/15

• 17

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

FR

DE

ES

UK

DK PL

CZ IE SE

RO

2014/15 2015/16

EU – BARLEY production

1 00

0 t


+6% + 1%

= - 5%

- 2% - 4%

(2014/15)61 Mt

(2015/16)59 Mt

• 18

EU – BARLEY S&D estimateEXPORT licences

grains – season total at week 15 (13/10/15)

9 9 9

4 7 7

615960

363637

9 13 97

79

13/14 14/15 15/16

Mt,

Jul

/Jun

eOp. st. prod. Imp. Food Indus.


Barley S&D(grains + 1st transf.)

Data: EC

?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

S1 S3 S5 S7 S9 S11 S13 S15

hebd

o, 1

000

t

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

cumul, 1 000 t

sour

ce :

CE



+ 56 % y.o.y.

• 19

World MAIZE fundamentals & prices

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1050

06

/07

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

Mt

Prod.

Closing st.

Use

Data: IGC

(1 005) 967

(980) 970

(203) 199


21%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

06/

07

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

20/1

0/14

20/1

1/14

20/1

2/14

20/0

1/15

20/0

2/15

20/0

3/15

20/0

4/15

20/0

5/15

20/0

6/15

20/0

7/15

20/0

8/15

20/0

9/15

20/1

0/15

$/t,

FO

B

Argentina (Up River)

Black Sea

Brazil (Paranagua)

US (3YC, Gulf)

• 20

Black Sea maize: the price of dry conditions

23 000

25 90027 000

16 500

18 80019 900

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

13/14 14/15 15/16

1 00

0 t

Prod. Exp.

Data: UkrAgroConsult

UkraineRomania

7 700

11 734

2 500

5 900

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14/15 15/16

1 0

00 t

Prod. Exp.

2 7003 000

2 0002 050

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

14/15 15/16

1 0

00

t

Prod. Exp.

Bulgaria

• 21

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

FR

RO

HU IT DE

ES PL

2014/15 2015/16

EU – MAIZE production (forecast)1

000

t


(2014/15)78 Mt

(RECORD)

(2015/16)59 Mt

- 26%

- 36%- 34%

- 18%

- 11% - 8% - 23%

• 22

EU – MAIZE S&D estimateIMPORT licences

grains – season total at week 15 (13/10/15)

1010

10

13 15 23

6758

7815

911

626061

34

3

1523

11

13/14 14/15 15/16

Mt,

Jul/J

une

Op. st. prod. Imp. Food Indus.


Maize S&D(grains + 1st transf.)

?

Data: EC

?

Shall we see a higher import interest than last

year?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

S1 S3 S5 S7 S9 S11 S13 S15

hebd

o, 1

000

t

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

cumul, 1 000 t

sour

ce :

CE



- 17 % prp N-1

• 23

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

IT FR EL

ES

2014/15 2015/16

EU – DURUM production

1 00

0 t


-2%

+22%

-11% +20%

(2014/15)7,7 Mt

(2015/16)8 Mt

• 24

French cereals – export prices

data: FranceAgriMer

155160165170175180185190195200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

21/1

0/14

06/1

1/14

25/1

1/14

11/1

2/14

30/1

2/14

16/0

1/15

03/0

2/15

19/0

2/15

09/0

3/15

25/0

3/15

10/0

4/15

28/0

4/15

19/0

5/15

05/0

6/15

23/0

6/15

09/0

7/15

27/0

7/15

12/0

8/15

28/0

8/15

15/0

9/15

01/1

0/15

19/1

0/15

$/t,

FO

B

"Supérieur" Wheat (Rouen) Barley (Rouen)Maize (Bordeaux) "Supérieur" Wheat (La Pallice)Maize (Rhin)

($/t) 170175180185190195200205

21/0

9/15

24/0

9/15

29/0

9/15

02/1

0/15

07/1

0/15

12/1

0/15

15/1

0/15

20/1

0/15

183

193

181

194

189

Price decrease:10 to 17% y.o.y.except maize

• 25

BARLEY: shipments from French ports to third-countries (season total)

0,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,41,61,82,02,22,42,62,83,03,23,43,6

July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Mt

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Data: French Customs, Infograin, Reuter’s

October 9th, 2015 : 2,1 Mt shipped

China = 96% (2 Mt on October 9th)

• 26

Common WHEAT: shipments from French ports to third-countries (season total)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Mt

2015/16 2013/14 2014/15

Data: French Customs, Infograin, Reuter’s

October 9th, 2015 : 2,3 Mt shippedAlgeria: 1,4 MtSub-Sah. Africa

1st quarter = 2 Mt + 17% / 2014/15– 15% / 2013/14

• 27

The French grain balances

in the international context

• 28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

Mt

wheat maize barley durum

French cereals exports (grains and 1st transf. products)

Source : FranceAgriMer

• 29

French DURUM exports

15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast data: French customs

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

.

grai

ns, 1

000

t

North Afr. other 3rd countr.

440 kt

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

.

grai

ns,

1 00

0 t

Italy other EU

950 kt

Non-EU countries EU countries

� 5 y. av: 1,5 Mt

� 13/14 & 14/15: decrease in durum area

• 30

French DURUM balance

0,3 0,1 0,1

0,2

1,8 1,41,7

0,10,04

0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

2,0

2,4

13/14 14/15 15/16

Mt

opening st. mktd prod. imp.

0,46 0,46 0,46

0,16 0,16 0,16

1,02 0,95 0,80

0,440,32

0,18

-0,14

0,40

0,100,09

-0,2

0,2

0,6

1,0

1,4

1,8

2,2

13/14 14/15 15/16

availablequantity

5-year averagecarry-out stock

closing st.

third-countriesexp.

EU exp.

products exp.

others

feed

semolina

P : 1,8P : 1,8

P : 1,5

Data: FranceAgriMer

� Decrease in area: -1/3 within 2 years

� 2015/16, plan to boost durum production: on our way

• 31

French MAIZE exports to EU countries

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

grai

ns, 1

000

t

ES NL BE UK DE IT IE PT other EU

� + Spain, NorthernEU

� Competition fromthe Ukraine (South EU)

� 14/15: availabilities, import duty in the EU, Ukrmaize to China

� 15/16: feed wheatavailabilities # maizeavailabilities15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast

data: French customs

• 32

French MAIZE exports to non-EU countries

0

100

200

300

400

500

60000

/01

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

grai

ns, 1

000

t

Switzerland Norway North Afr.

South Korea other 3rd countr.

� European non-EU countries

� North Africa

� Asia

15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast


• 33

French MAIZE balance ֠ grain maize (silage maize excluded)

2,5 3,02,4

11,412,5

16,1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

13/14 14/15 15/16

Mt


2,3 2,3 2,3

3,5 3,70,5 0,5

0,5

4,77,5

5,1

0,4

0,4

0,2

2,4

2,9

3,0

-0,2-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

13/14 14/15 15/16

availablequantity


closing st.

third-countriesexp.

EU exp.

semolina exp.

other dom. uses

alcohol

feed

starch

P : 14,5

P : 17,9

P : 13,0

� Area & yield down

� 2014/15: an absolute record

� Opening st.: total supply near 2013/14

� Feed: relative prices with wheat

� Estimated export consistent with estimated availabilities (updates to come)

Data: FranceAgriMer

• 34

French BARLEY exports to EU countries

0

600

1 200

1 800

2 400

3 000

3 600

4 200

4 800

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

grai

ns, 1

000

t

BE NL DE IT ES PT CY other EU

� + Northern EU

� dynamic exports, less competitive in feed rations

� 14/15:

Non-EU exports > EU exports



• 35

French BARLEY exports to non-EU countries: a dramatic change from 2014/15

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,000

/01

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

grai

ns,

Mt

Saudi Arabia North Afr. Asia other 3rd countr.

� Asia ~ China

� a traditionalmalting barleymarket for France

� the 2014/15 new deal: all about Chinese feed grains imports

� a series of restrictive measures



• 36

French BARLEY balance

1,3 1,0 1,0

8,49,9

10,8

0123456789

1011

13/14 14/15 15/16

Mt


1,2 1,0 1,0

1,5 1,6 1,6

3,5 3,0 3,1

1,6 3,61,0

1,0

3,7

1,10,6

0123456789

101112

13/14 14/15 15/16

availablequantity


closing st.

third-countriesexp.

EU exp.

malt exp.

other dom. use

feed

hum. & indus.(dom.)

P : 10,3P : 11,7

P : 12,5

� Very high level of prod.

� Feed: at a technical minimum

� Chinese demand since 2014/15

� available quantities to respond to additional demand


• 37

French WHEAT exports to EU countries

0

1 000

2 0003 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 0009 000

10 000

11 000

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

grai

ns, 1

000

t

NL BE ES IT PT DE UK other EU

� Northern & Southern EU

� Milling & feedusage



• 38

French WHEAT exports to non-EU countries:an ability to adapt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1400

/01

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

grai

ns,

Mt

North Afr. Sub-Sah. Afr. Egypt Asia other 3rd countr.

� the 2007/08 crisis: a turningpoint

� North & Sub-Sah. Africa: a growingdemand in Fr. grains

� a non-typical14/15 season: Algeria, Egypt, Asia



• 39

French WHEAT balance

2,9 2,52,3

37,4

34,034,5

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

13/14 14/15 15/16

Mt

opening st. mktd prod. imp.4,9 4,8 4,9

2,8 2,84,4 4,4 5,11,6 1,6 1,6

6,8 7,9 7,6

2,3 2,5

2,8

12,211,5

11,4

2,62,2

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

13/14 14/15 15/16

available

5y av. carry-out

closing st.

third-countriesexp.EU exp.

flour exp.

other dom. use

alcohol

feed

starch

milling (dom.)

P : 36,9 P : 37,5P : 41,0

� Unprecedented production level

� Price competitiveness in feed rations

� World competition

� An on-going balancing process


• 40

French cereals exports within the EU main destinations in 2014/15

0500

1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 0005 500

NL

UE

BL

ES IT DE

UK

PT

EL+

CY

1 00

0 t

maize barley wheat durum

5,2 Mt

4,4 Mt3,8 Mt

2,1 Mt

1,4 Mt0,8 Mt

1,1 Mt

0,140 Mt


• 41

Exports of French grains to the UK

799570593

234

351547

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

1 00

0 t

maize wheat barley durum

� 5 y av. Maize: 573 kt 2015/16 (fcst) 550 kt

Wheat: 270 kt 225 kt

Barley: 10 ky 5 kt

Durum: 48 kt

� Starch industry 2002-2008 >>> fall in UK maizeindustrial use

• 42

French maize: crop condition

yield prospects

Just about to bereleased

• 43

French maize: crop progress

Area harvested

Just about to bereleased

• 44

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octobre 23rd, 2015 london€¦ · maize imports to the uk – main origins data: eurostat, french...

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