oe energy market snapshot...source: eia natural gas monthly and drilling productivity report;...
TRANSCRIPT
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
OE ENERGY
MARKET SNAPSHOTNational – Data Through April 2019
Office of Enforcement
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
May 2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2018 State of the Markets
Report
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Highlights
• Natural gas markets experienced record high demand and supply.• Natural gas storage fell to a multi-year low.• Pipeline additions helped to reduce Marcellus bottlenecks.• Higher average prices were seen nationally for both gas and electric markets.• Capacity additions were led by natural gas-fired and wind-powered generation.
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Natural Gas Prices Increased in 2018
Source: S&P Global Platts
2018 Average
Spot Natural Gas
Prices
>=5.15<=1.95
$/MMBtu
(Percent
change since ’17)
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Natural Gas Storage Hit Multi-Year Low
Source: EIA
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Natural Gas Production Reached Record Highs in 2018
Source: EIA Natural Gas Monthly and Drilling Productivity Report; denotes average daily dry production
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13 Bcfd of Interstate Pipeline Capacity Added in 2018
Source: Office of Energy Projects
1.8 Bcfd302 mi.
6.6 Bcfd109 mi.
0 Bcfd0 mi.
4.7 Bcfd270 mi.
Total 2018 Gas Pipeline Infrastructure AdditionsCapacity: 13.1 BcfdMiles: 689 mi.
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Power Burn Drove Natural Gas Demand Increase
Source: EIA, Bentek Energy; bars denote average daily demand by sector
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U.S. Position As Net Exporter of Natural Gas Grew in 2018
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; denotes average daily imports and exports
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Reported Index Volumes Nearly Doubled
Source: S&P Global Platts
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Natural Gas Pipeline Outages Had Electric Market Impacts
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite
Westcoast BC
Outage
Sumas Border
Hub
Northwest
Pipeline
GTN
RubyPG&E
Westcoast BC
Paiute
PG&E TransWestern
El Paso
Kern River
SoCal System
SoCal
Outages
Aliso Canyon Restriction
Los Angeles
San Diego
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Day-Ahead Power Prices Generally Increased
Average Annual
DA On-Peak
Prices
Nodal Prices: $/MWh
(2018)
<=2
5
>=5
5Hub Prices:
$: $/MWh (2018)
%: Percent
change since ‘17
Source: Nodal prices from ABB Velocity Suite. ISO hub prices from SNL’s ISO Day-Ahead On Peak Prices data. Mid-Columbia, Palo Verde, and Into Southern prices from SNL’s S&P Global Market Intelligence Day-Ahead – Annual On Peak Prices data.
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Capacity Market Prices Held Steady
Source: ISO/RTO webpages
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Most Generation Capacity Additions Were Natural Gas & Solar
Source: EIA- Form 860M. Data do not cover additions or retirements in Alaska or Hawaii.
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Electricity Demand Remained Steady
Source: EIA Forms 826 & 861
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gig
awat
tho
urs
Electric Consumption by Sector
Residential Commercial Industrial
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The Western Energy Imbalance Market Continued to Evolve
Source: Derived from ABB Velocity Suite.
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Northwest Led Daily and Hourly Transactions in Bilateral Markets
Source: Derived from Electric Quarterly Reports (EQR)
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Summer 2019 Reliability and
Energy Market Assessment
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Highlights• Higher than average temperatures are expected in the West, South and East.
• Reserve margins are expected to be adequate in all regions except ERCOT.
• Aliso Canyon natural gas storage inventories remain an item of interest for electric reliability within the Western Interconnection.
• Natural gas futures price movements are mixed when compared to 2018 summer levels.
• Battery storage and wind and solar capacity will exceed previous summer levels.
• New LNG export capacity will drive natural gas demand growth.
• High natural gas injections are predicted to return storage to average levels.
• High hydroelectric power production is expected in California but below-average levels are expected in the Pacific Northwest.
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Summer Temperatures Expected to be Above Normal
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Modest Growth of Forecast Generation Capacity
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation
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Reserve Margins Adequate in All Regions Except ERCOT
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation
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Source: InterContinental ExchangeNote: Summer futures prices are the average July and August futures contract hub price added to the Henry Hub for April 1, 2019.
2019 Summer
Natural Gas
Futures Prices
>=5.88<=1.11
$/MMBtu
(Percent
change from
2018 settled
futures)
Summer 2019 Natural Gas Futures Price Changes Mixed
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LNG In-Services Drive Demand Growth
Source: S&P Global, Inc. forecasts as of March 20, 2019
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Natural Gas Storage to Return to Average Levels
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Natural Gas Has the Highest Share of Generation Capacity
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
Capacity MixCoal
Hydro
NaturalGasNuclearOil
Other
3561 101 171 41 81 386 Total GW200
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Power Burn Expected to Increase
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Narrow Coal-Natural Gas Spread Promotes Diverse Generation
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CME Group
Sept2019
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Strong Hydro Expected in California but Moderate in Other Western States
Source: Natural Resources Conservation Service, US Department of Agriculture
Mid-C
Grand Coulee Dam
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Import Restrictions to Affect Pacific Northwest
Source: ABB Velocity Suite
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Battery Storage Capacity Continuing to Grow through the Summer
Source: US Energy Information Administration Form 860M
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(throughAugust)
MW
Current and Planned Battery Storage by Year
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Wind & Solar Capacity Continue Increasing
Source: US Energy Information Administration Form 860M
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(throughAugust)
MW
Cumulative Net Capacity of Wind and Solar Photovolatic
Solar Photovoltaic Wind
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National Slides
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
NOAA June 2019 Through August 2019 Outlook
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
Pittsburgh
Boston
Calgary
City Location
Chicago
NYC
OklahomaCity
DallasLos
Angeles
Sacramento
Denver
Portland
Houston New
OrleansMiami
Vancouver
2019
2018
2012 - 2017
Cumulative HDDs by CityApril 2019
Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)
Atlanta
Updated
423
589513
0
00
278
472362
325
571400
86
202122
22
3419
440
711509
133
339179
69
13164
38
4317
383
523406
441
516500
238
267249
870
343348
570
196146
84
10690
Apr-2019
35
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
Pittsburgh
Boston
Calgary
City Location
Chicago
NYC
OklahomaCity
DallasLos
Angeles
Sacramento
Denver
Portland
Houston New
Orleans Miami
Vancouver
2019
2018
2012 - 2017
Cumulative CDDs by CityApril 2019
Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)
Atlanta
Updated
5
04
9
612
389
363390
6
129
91
1152
172
93181
5
04
40
2338
110
67126
190
110187
0
00
1
10
0
00
0
96
0
1021
12
1724
Apr-2019
36
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
ColumbiaTCO
AlgonquinCitygate
AECO
Pricing Point
BOLD – This Year
Green – % increase from
previous year
Red – % decrease from
previous year
ChicagoCitygate
TranscoZ6-NY
NGPLMidcon
El PasoPermian
SoCal
Border
PG&ECitygate
CIG
HSCHenry
Hub
FGT-Z3
Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)April 2019
Source: Platts Updated
$2.59
-49%$2.37
-15%
$2.56
-6%
$2.35
-5%
$2.59
-6%
$2.45
-11%
$1.88
-15%$0.22
-87%
$2.55
-10%
$0.83
-37%
$1.78
-8%
$3.20
19%
$1.72
-18%
NW Stanfield
$1.97
1%
Apr-2019
37
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
$ = Average 2019 Spot Price*% Decrease/Increase from 2018*Average Monthly On-Peak Day-Ahead
from January to AprilSPP Price is an average of the North and South Hubs Source: S&P Global Intelligence and ISO/RTO Data
NP 15
Palo Verde
Mid-Columbia Indiana
Hub
SPP
ERCOTNorth
PJM WestNYISO ZJ
Mass Hub
Into Southern
2019 Spot Power Prices ($/MWh)
$46.34
122%
$45.94
46%
$38.17
46%
$33.03
-9%
$28.32
8%
$28.23
-10%
$30.53
0%
$42.93
-31%
$42.24
-25%
$32.72
-28%
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
U.S. NG Supply and Demand
November 2017 – March 2018 vs November 2018 – March 2019
National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption
Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data2163
39
Updated
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017/2018 2018/2019
Average D
aily S
upply
(B
cfd
)
US Natural Gas Supply
LNG Imports
Canadian Imports
Net Dry GasProduction
-26.3%
-16.5%
10.8%
Total Change in Supply: 8.9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017/2018 2018/2019
Av
era
ge
Da
ily
Vo
lum
e (
Bcfd
)
US Natural Gas Demand
Power Generation
Total Change in Demand:
Industrial
4.3%
Residential/ Commercial
7.0%
1.1%
4.6%
Mexican Exports
LNG Exports 49.1%
11.7%
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports
Regional Imports from Canada
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data
40
Updated
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May
-18
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
Bcf
d
Northwest Net ImportsMidwest Net ImportsNortheast Net Imports
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.20009
41
Updated
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf
d
2014-18 Range 2019
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation
National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20024
42
Updated
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bcf
d
2014 - 2018 Range
2019
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
EIA National Storage Inventories
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory
Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data
Notes:
Updated
43
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Sto
rage
(B
cf)
5 Year Range 2019-2020 2018-2019
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
EIA Regional Storage Inventories
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory
Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data
Notes:
Updated
44
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
EAST 0
500
1,000
1,500
WEST
0
100
200
300
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
5 Year Range 2019-2020 2018-2019
PRODUCING
0100200300400500
PACIFIC0
500
1,000
1,500
SOUTH CENTRAL
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production
Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20021
45
Updated
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Bcf
d
Dry Production
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Rigs by Type
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated
46
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000M
ay-1
7
Au
g-1
7
No
v-1
7
Feb
-18
May
-18
Au
g-1
8
No
v-1
8
Feb
-19
May
-19
Bak
er H
ugh
es R
ig C
ou
nt
(Rig
s)
Oil Rigs Gas Rigs
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Competing Fuels
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Competing Fuels
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated
47
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Fuel
Pri
ce (
$/M
MB
tu)
Nymex Henry HubBig Sandy Barge (Low Sulfur Coal)WTI Crude Oil
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities
National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout
Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston
Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and
9 power plants.
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data3007
48
Updated
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Dai
ly L
NG
Sen
do
ut
(MM
cfd
)
Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GatewayExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Modeled)Neptune
0
1,000
2,000
3,000 Monthly Average
Apr-2019
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U.S Exports of LNG
National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Exports
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data3007
49
Updated
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
Bcf
dSabine Pass Cove Point Corpus Christi
Apr-2019
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu
Note: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.
Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.
World LNG Estimated Landed Prices:
National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices
Cove Point
$4.50
India
$11.55
UK
$8.75
Spain
$9.05
Belgium
$8.84
Japan
$12.40
Korea
$12.40Lake Charles
$3.96Altamira
$4.60
Cove Point
$4.40
India
$11.55
UK
$8.75
Spain
$9.15
Belgium
$8.99
Japan
$13.10
Korea
$13.10
Lake Charles
$3.93Altamira
$4.57
Cove Point
$4.50
India
$11.55
UK
$8.75
Spain
$9.05
Belgium
$8.84
Japan
$12.40
Korea
$12.40Lake Charles
$3.96Altamira
$4.60
Cove Point
India
UK
Spain
Belgium
Korea
Lake Charles
Altamira
Bahia Blanca
Canaport
China
50
Updated
5.03$
4.99$ 5.00$
4.99$
4.88$
4.61$
2.60$ 2.70$
2.48$
4.75$
5.03$
Apr-19
Apr-2019
50
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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Historical and World Gas Futures Prices
National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated
51
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20M
ay-1
7
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
No
v-1
9
Jan
-20
Mar
-20
May
-20
$/M
MB
tu
Henry Hub TZ6 NY
Algonquin Citygates UKNBP
Japanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices
Apr-2019
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National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated
WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price
52
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100O
il P
rice
s ($
/Bar
rel)
WTI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Price
Apr-2019
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National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated
Nymex Futures Curves
53
$2.45
$2.55
$2.65
$2.75
$2.85
$2.95
$3.05
$3.15
$3.25
$3.35
Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20
Nym
ex F
utu
res
Cu
rves
($
/MM
Btu
)
5/7/2018 4-9-2019 12-7-2018 5-7-2019
Apr-2019
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Infrastructure Report
Office of Energy Projects Energy
Infrastructure Update
http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp
(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab)
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Natural Gas Highlights
55
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Electric Generation Highlights56
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Electric Transmission Highlights57
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Installed Generating Capacity and Proposed Additions
58