oea team threat report oea team g-2g2 suicide …...attack at an awami national party political...

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U.S. UNCLASSIFIED REL NATO, GCTF, ISAF, MCFI, ABCA//For Official Use Only


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OEA Team Threat Report OEA TEAMTRISATRADOC

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US Army TRADOC G2

TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) – Threats

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Publication Date: 27 January 2011

Information Cut-Off Date: 27 January 2011

US Army TRADOC G2

TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) – Threats

Suicide Attacks: Pakistan

27 January 2011

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Flag_of_Pakistan.svg

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Purpose

To inform deploying units, scenario developers, and trainers of the

threat from suicide attacks in Pakistan.

To provide examples of tactics, techniques, and procedures employed

by suicide bombers in Pakistan.

Product Caveat: This presentation has been developed from multiple unclassified sources and is

primarily intended for use as a training product for the Department of Army. This briefing should

not be considered a finished intelligence product, nor used in such a manner.

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JANUARY 2011

12 January – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Bannu

District, a SVBIED attack on Miryan police station killed 18 people and

wounded 15 others.

25 January – Punjab Province, Lahore, a teenage suicide bomber detonated

explosives after being challenged by police near a Shiite procession

commemorating the 40th day of Ashura. The bombing killed 13 people and

wounded at least 52 others. Tehrik-e-Taliban claimed responsibility for the

attack.

25 January – Sind Province, Karachi, a motorcycle SVBIED at a security

checkpoint outside a Shiite festival killed three people, including two police

officers. Tehrik-e-Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.

27 January – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Bajaur Agency, Saramain

village, a suicide bomber was shot dead and another blew himself up when

confronted by security forces.

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*As of 27 January 2011

SUICIDE ATTACKS 2011*

ATTACK LOCATIONS

NWFP (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) 1

SIND 1

PUNJAB 1

FATA 1

BALUCHISTAN

KASHMIR

ISLAMABAD

TOTAL ATTACKS 4

FATA

1

1

1

1

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SVBIED ATTACKS 2011*

ATTACK LOCATIONS


SIND 1

BALUCHISTAN

FATA

PUNJAB

ISLAMABAD

KASHMIR

TOTAL ATTACKS 2

FATA

*As of 27 January 2011

1

1

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BODY-BORNE SUICIDE ATTACKS 2011*

ATTACK LOCATIONS

PUNJAB 1

FATA 1

NWFP (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa)

KASHMIR

SIND

BALUCHISTAN

ISLAMABAD

TOTAL ATTACKS 2 *As of 27 January 2011

1

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JANUARY 2010

01 January – Northwest Frontier Province, Lakki Marwat, Shah Hasan Khel

village, a suicide attacker drove a SVBIED into an area between houses

where spectators were watching a volleyball game and detonated explosives,

killing at least 99 people and injuring 87.

The village had recently formed an anti-Taliban militia and had received

threats.

06 January – Kashmir, Rawalakot, a suicide bombing at a Pakistani military

barracks killed three soldiers and wounded 11.

09 January – Northwest Frontier Province, Peshawar, Matni, Taliban

commander Irfan Ullah blew himself up when Pakistani police raided his

hideout. At least seven policemen were wounded in the explosion.

16 January – Kashmir, Rawalakot, a suicide bomber jumped onto a military

vehicle as it was turning on a road and detonated explosives, injuring two

soldiers.

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JANUARY 2010

01 January - Northwest Frontier Province, Gomal, a suicide attacker

exploded a SVBIED outside a police station, killing at least four people

and wounding 11 more.

30 January - Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Bajaur Agency, Khar,

a suicide bomber attempting to proceed past a security checkpoint

towards nearby government buildings and military barracks detonated

explosives when stopped by soldiers. The blast killed 16 people and

wounded at least 20 others.

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FEBRUARY 2010

03 February – Northwest Frontier Province, Lower Dir, a SVBIED attack on a

vehicle carrying U.S. Soldiers killed at least eight people, including three

Americans, a Pakistani paramilitary soldier, and three girls at a nearby school,

while wounding approximately 100 people. The Taliban claimed responsibility

for the attack.

05 February – Sindh Province, Karachi, a motorcycle SVBIED attack on a bus

traveling to a Shiite procession killed at least 12 people. An estimated 55 people

were brought to the Jinnah hospital for treatment. As doctors tended to the

wounded, a second suicide bomber blew himself up outside the emergency

ward, killing 11 people and injuring rescue workers.*

10 February – Northwest Frontier Province, Wazirdand, a SVBIED attack on a

tribal police patrol killed 12 people and wounded 15 people.

* Analyst comment: As the 05 February attack involved two suicide attackers utilizing different delivery

methods at different locations, for statistical purposes this complex attack will be considered as two

suicide bombings (one vehicle borne and one body borne).

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FEBRUARY 2010

11 February – Northwest Frontier Province, Bannu, a suicide attack at a police

center killed at least 15 people and wounded at least 24 people.

18 February – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, two suicide bomb attacks

killed at least 41 people and injured more than 60 others.

The first attack occurred near a mosque in a crowded market place of Tirah Valley

in Khyber and targeted a compound used by the local militant group Lashkar-e-

Islam (Army of Islam), which is at war with rival group Ansar-ul-Islam

(Companions of Islam). Lashkar-e-Islam commander Amir Azam was among 27

people killed; more than 40 were injured.

A few hours after the first attack, a suicide bomber killed 14 people and injured

more than 20 at a cattle market in the Darmela area of Khyber.

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FEBRUARY 2010

20 February – Northwest Frontier Province, Mansehra District, Mansehra and

Balakot, coordinated suicide attacks at two police stations killed a police chief

and wounded at least four people. Media reports were contradictory on details

of the attacks.*

22 February – Northwest Frontier Province, Swat District, Mingora, a suicide

attack against military vehicles at the Nishat Chowk market killed eight people.

27 February – Northwest Frontier Province, Karak District, a SVBIED attack

against a police station killed four people and wounded 26 more.

*Analyst comment: Though there were apparently multiple bombers at one or perhaps both of the

police stations on 20 February, for statistical purposes these attacks will be considered two body

borne attacks – one in Mansehra and one in Balakot.

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MARCH 2010

05 March – Northwest Frontier Province, Hangu District, Hangu, a suicide attack

on two buses carrying Shiites killed at least 12 people and wounded 30 others.

08 March – Punjab Province, Lahore, a SVBIED attack at an intelligence agency

office killed at least 13 people and wounded more than 70 others.

11 March – Northwest Frontier Province, Peshawar, an attempted complex

suicide attack against a Frontier Corps convoy failed when a bomber

unintentionally detonated his explosives, killing himself and two other bombers,

and wounding three children playing nearby.

12 March – Punjab Province, Lahore, a pair of suicide bombers targeting army

vehicles detonated explosives within seconds of each other, killing at least 43

people and wounding approximately 100 others.

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MARCH 2010

13 March – Northwest Frontier Province, Swat District, Mingora, a suicide attack

against a security checkpoint killed at least 14 people and wounded at least 52

others.

According to District Police Chief Qazi Ghulam Farooq, the bomber was walking

toward a crowded legal court when he was challenged by security guards. The

guards opened fire and the attacker detonated explosives.

21 March – Baluchistan, Quetta, a bicycle SVBIED attack near the home of

Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami party leader Mehmood Khan Achakzau killed at

least four people and wounded at least a dozen others.

29 March – Northwest Frontier Province, Tank District, Tank city, a suicide

bomber detonated explosives as anti-Taliban volunteers were leaving a meeting,

killing one and wounding two others.

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MARCH 2010

31 March – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Khyber, a suicide attack against

Jansi fort near Bara town killed at least six Pakistani soldiers and wounded at

least 20 others.

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APRIL 2010

05 April – Northwest Frontier Province, Lower Dir District, Timergarah, a suicide

attack at an Awami National Party political rally killed 43 people and wounded at

least 100 others.

05 April – Northwest Frontier Province, Peshawar, six militants in two vehicles

attacked U.S. consulate security checkpoints with grenades and gunfire. Six

people outside the consulate were killed and at least 20 were wounded.

At least one SVBIED was used in the attack. Police discovered and defused

suicide jackets after the attackers were killed by security forces.

16 April – Baluchistan, Quetta, a suicide bomber detonated explosives while the

relatives of a Shiite Muslim killed in a drive-by shooting in the early hours of the

morning were assembled outside a hospital emergency department, killing 11

people and wounding 28 others. Nasir Shah, a member of the national

parliament from the ruling Pakistan People's Party, was among the wounded.

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APRIL 2010

17 April – Northwest Frontier Province, Kohat District, Kacha Pukka, two suicide

bombers dressed in burqas struck six minutes apart at a food distribution

center, killing 41 people and wounding at least 62 others.*

18 April – Northwest Frontier Province, Kohat District, a SVBIED attack on the

Saddar police station killed seven people and wounded 26 others.

19 April – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Peshawar, a

teenage suicide bomber struck near a protest rally sponsored by Jamaat Islami,

Pakistan’s oldest Islamic political party, killing at least 21 people and wounding

as many as 24 others. Among the dead were Gulfat Hussein the deputy

superintendent of Peshawar police and a Shiite; and Dost Muhammad, a local

Jamaat-e-Islami leader.

*Analyst comment: Though there were two suicide attackers in the 17 April incident, since they

utilized the same delivery methods at the same location, for statistical purposes this complex

attack will be considered as one suicide bombing (body borne).

**Analyst comment: On 15 April 2010 the Pakistani Senate, in the 18th amendment to the

Constitution of Pakistan, changed the name of the Northwest Frontier Province to Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa with a unanimous 90 votes.

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APRIL 2010

24 April – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Lower Dir

District, Timergara, a SVBIED exploded near a prison van, wounding at least 10

policeman.

28 April – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Peshawar, a

SVBIED attack at a security checkpoint killed five policemen and wounded eight

more.

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MAY 2010

01 May – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Swat District,

Mingora, security forces, using two recently captured insurgents, located two

other militants and asked them to surrender. One of pair detonated explosives,

killing all four militants and three civilians while wounding seven soldiers and

five civilians.

18 May – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Dera Ismail Khan,

a bicycle SVBIED attack on a police patrol killed 11 people and wounded 15

others.

28 May – Punjab Province, Lahore, Model Town and Garhi Shahu, two groups of

Taliban fighters entered two mosques during Friday prayers, opened fire and

hurled grenades at worshipers of the Ahmadi sect of Islam. According to

reports, three of the attackers detonated explosives vests at Garhi Shahu

mosque. Approximately 70 people were killed and 78 wounded in the attacks.*

*Analyst comment: While the 28 May mosque attacks involved multiple attackers at two separate

locations, it appears from media reports that only the Garhi Shahu attack involved suicide

bombers. Thus, for statistical purposes, these complex attacks will be considered as one suicide

bombing (body borne).

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JUNE 2010

30 June – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Upper Orakzai Agency, an

explosion occurred at a security checkpoint. Reports were conflicted as

whether the explosion was from a suicide attack.

* Analyst comment: As the cause of the explosion on 30 June cannot be determined from media

reports, this incident will not be counted for statistical purposes. The report is included for information

purposes.

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JULY 201001 July – Punjab Province, Lahore, two suicide bombers struck at the shrine of

the 11th century Persian Sufi saint, Syed Ali Hajwairi, commonly known as Data

Gunj Bakhsh, killing at least 45 people and wounding over 200.

The first attacker struck in an underground area where visitors sleep and prepare

themselves for prayer. As people fled the scene of the first bombing, a second

bomber detonated explosives among the crowd.

* Analyst comment: Though there were two suicide attackers in the 01 July incident, since they utilized

the same delivery methods at the same location, for statistical purposes, this complex attack will be

considered as one suicide bombing (body borne).

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JULY 2010

05 July – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Lower Dir

District, Timargarah, multiple suicide bombers conducted an attack against a

Frontier Corps post. The attack was initiated by a SVBIED. The bomber shot at

guards and detonated his car bomb at the base’s gate. Guards killed the driver

of a second SVBIED before he could detonate his explosives. Two more suicide

bombers, who were on foot, were killed by police before they could detonate

their explosives.*

One soldier was killed by the SVBIED blast. Reports of the number of wounded

varied, ranging from seven to twelve.

09 July – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Mohmand Agency, Yakaghund, a

motorcycle SVBIED and a suicide bomber attacked at a market area near a local

government office. At least 102 people were killed and at least 115 wounded.**

*Analyst comment: While there were four suicide attackers involved in the 05 July incident, they utilized

only two delivery methods at the same location. For statistical purposes, this complex attack will be

considered as two suicide bombings (one vehicle borne and one body borne).

**Analyst comment: For statistical purposes, the 09 July attack will be counted as two suicide

bombings (one vehicle borne and one body borne).

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JULY 201015 July – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Swat District,

Mingora, a suicide bombing near a bus terminal killed five people and wounded

at least 58.

18 July – Punjab Province, Sargodha District, Sargodha, a suicide bomber

detonated explosives at a Shiite mosque, wounding at least 12 people.

20 July – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) , Mardan District,

Mardan, seven militants, including three suicide bombers, attempted to enter

the Punjab regiment training area. Two of the attackers were killed by security

forces, the three bombers’ explosives detonated before they reached their

targets and two attackers escaped. Four soldiers suffered minor injuries in the

attack.*

26 July – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Nowshera

District, Pabbi, a motorcycle SVBIED exploded after being intercepted by

security forces near the home of Mian Iftikhar Hussain, information minister of

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. His son, Rashid Hussain, had been shot to

death two days earlier. Seven people were killed and 25 wounded in the

bombing. * Analyst comment: Though there were three suicide attackers in the 20 July incident, since they utilized the same delivery methods at the same location, for statistical purposes, this attack will be

considered as one suicide bombing (body borne).

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AUGUST 2010

04 August – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Peshawar, a

suicide bomber walked up to a vehicle carrying Sifwat Ghayur, the head of the

Frontier Constabulary, while it was stopped at a traffic light and detonated

explosives. Ghayur, his driver, and three bodyguards were killed and 11 people

were injured in the blast.

23 August – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, South Waziristan, Wana, a

teenage suicide bomber shook the hand of former lawmaker Mullah Noor

Muhammad, who had just finished a speech at a mosque, and detonated

explosives. Muhammad and 25 other people were killed while at least 30 people

were injured.

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SEPTEMBER 2010

01 September - Punjab Province, Lahore, three suicide bombers attacked at

three separate locations as 45,000 Shias marched in a traditional mourning

ceremony for the assassination of Ali, the Prophet Muhammad's cousin.

The first two attacks occurred in close proximity near Karbala Gamay Shah

Imambargah, just as the procession was ending. The third detonation was

in the Bhatti Chowk area.

Media accounts varied as to when the third blast occurred, with some

saying it was within a half hour of the first two bombings and others saying

there were only brief intervals between the blasts.

Media reports also varied on casualty numbers but at least 25 people were

killed and at least 180 injured.

* Analyst comment: As it appears there were three suicide attackers at three locations separated by at

least short time intervals, for statistical purposes, these will be considered as three suicide bombings

(body borne).

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SEPTEMBER 2010

03 September – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Mardan

District, Mardan, Muslimabad Canal, a suicide bomber armed with an assault

rifle attempted to enter an Ahmadi mosque but was stopped by security guards.

The bomber detonated his explosives after being shot. One person was killed

and four wounded in the attack.

03 September – Baluchistan Province, Quetta, a SVBIED detonated in the midst

of a Shia Qods Day protest, killing 54 people and wounding 197 others.

06 September – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Lakki

Marwat, a SVBIED struck a school van before hitting the rear wall of a police

station and detonating. The explosion killed 19 people, including nine

policemen and two children, while wounding 34 people, including 20 police.

07 September – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), a SVBIED

exploded at the gates of a police residential area, killing at least 17 people and

injuring at least 45 others. The blast destroyed at least 25 homes.

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SEPTEMBER 2010

12 September - Kashmir, Rawalakot District, a suicide bomber, identified as a

local resident, died when his explosives detonated while he was traveling in a

car to a target location.

30 September - Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Khajori,

security forces arrested a young man wearing an explosive-filled jacket driving

a vehicle loaded with explosives. The driver was traveling from North Waziristan

to Bannu district in southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province when he was

stopped at a checkpoint in Khajori.**

* Analyst comment: As the suicide bomber in the 12 September incident was killed in an unintentional

detonation prior to reaching his target, this incident will not be counted for statistical purposes and is

included for information purposes only. **As there was no attempt to detonate the explosives in the 30

September incident, it will not be counted in the statistical assessment but is included here for

information purposes.

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OCTOBER 2010

07 October – Sind Province, Karachi, two suicide bombers detonated within

minutes of each other at the Abdullah Shah Ghazi shrine, killing eight people

and wounding more than 60 others. Large numbers of Sufi Muslims gather at

the shrine every Thursday.

18 October – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Lakki Marwat

District, when the teenage driver of a Toyota Surf attempted to avoid a security

checkpoint, police opened fired and the vehicle exploded, killing the driver and

injuring three passers-by.

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NOVEMBER 2010

01 November – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Swabi

District, Shah Mansoor, a suicide bomber detonated explosives after being

stopped while attempting to enter a police compound. Two policemen were

killed and 12 people, including six policemen, were injured in the attack.

05 November – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Darra

Adam Khel, a suicide bomber detonated explosives among a crowd of

worshippers at a mosque, collapsing the roof. The blast killed at least 40 people

and wounded at least 60 others.

11 November – Sindh Province, Karachi, militants engaged police with small

arms before detonating a SVBIED at a Crime Investigation Department building,

killing at least 15 people and wounding at least 115 others. Taliban spokesman

Azam Tariq claimed responsibility for the attack.

14 November – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, South Waziristan District,

Shakai Village, a suicide bomber wounded nine people at a market.

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NOVEMBER 2010

26 November – Islamabad, police arrested two suicide bombers, linked to the

Pakistani Taliban, planning to attack a mosque and a government building.*

30 November – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Bannu

District, a suicide bomber detonated explosives near a police van, killing six

people and wounding 19 others.

* Analyst comment: As the suicide bombers in Islamabad were arrested prior to attempting to attack

their targets, they will not be included in the statistical analysis. This report is included simply for

informational purposes.

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DECEMBER 2010

06 December – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Mohmand Agency,

Ghalanai, two suicide bombers on motorcycles attacked a government

compound as officials met with anti-Taliban tribal elders. A man on a motorcycle

drove up to an area where meeting participants were seated and detonated

explosives. Seconds later, another bomber on a motorcycle attacked the gate of

the compound. Some reports stated the attackers were dressed in police

uniforms. At least 40 people were killed and 60 wounded.

07 December – Baluchistan Province, Quetta, a suicide bomber attacked a

convoy carrying Baluchistan Chief Minister Nawab Aslam Raisani. Raisani was

unhurt but nine people were injured in the attack.

08 December – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Kohat

District, a teenage suicide bomber detonated explosives near a minibus next to

Tirah Bazar market, killing 18 people and injuring 33 more.

* Analyst comment: While there were two suicide attackers involved in the 06 December incident, they

utilized the same delivery method at the same location, within seconds of each other. For statistical

purposes, this attack will be considered as one suicide bombing (vehicle-borne).

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DECEMBER 2010

10 December – Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Hangu

District, a SVBIED attack at a hospital building under-construction killed at least

15 people and wounded over 20 others.

25 December – Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Bajaur District, Khar, a

female suicide bomber wearing a burqa killed at least 47 people and wounded

more than 100 at a food distribution point. When she was challenged at a police

checkpoint the woman ran toward a group of 300 people waiting for food

distribution and threw two hand grenades before she detonated explosives she

was carrying beneath her clothing.

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SUICIDE ATTACKS 2010

ATTACK LOCATIONS


FATA 10

PUNJAB 8

BALUCHISTAN 4

SIND 4

KASHMIR 2

ISLAMABAD

TOTAL ATTACKS 66

FATA

38

210

4

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SVBIED ATTACKS 2010

ATTACK LOCATIONS


BALUCHISTAN 2

SIND 2

FATA 2

PUNJAB 1

ISLAMABAD

KASHMIR

TOTAL ATTACKS 23

FATA

16

2

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BODY-BORNE SUICIDE ATTACKS 2010

ATTACK LOCATIONS


FATA 8

PUNJAB 7

KASHMIR 2

SIND 2

BALUCHISTAN 2

ISLAMABAD

TOTAL ATTACKS 43

2

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SUICIDE ATTACKS 2009

ATTACK LOCATIONS

NWFP 52

PUNJAB 15

FATA 9

ISLAMABAD 6

KASHMIR 2

BALUCHISTAN 1

SIND 1

TOTAL ATTACKS 86

52

15

69

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SVBIED ATTACKS 2009

ATTACK LOCATIONS

NWFP 31

PUNJAB 7

FATA 6

ISLAMABAD 3

TOTAL ATTACKS 47

31

7

6

FATA

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BODY-BORNE SUICIDE ATTACKS 2009

ATTACK LOCATIONS

NWFP 21

PUNJAB 8

FATA 4

ISLAMABAD 3

KASHMIR 2

BALUCHISTAN 1

SIND 1

TOTAL ATTACKS 40

21

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CONCLUSIONS

All data used in this presentation was derived from open sources. The

intent of this presentation is not to cover every suicide bombing incident

in Pakistan but to discuss common TTP and identify trends.

Details on the numbers of suicide bombings vary among sources.

Casualty numbers vary between sources as well.

For statistical purposes, multiple suicide attackers at the same location

have been counted as one suicide attack unless the attackers utilized

different delivery methods. For example, if a SVBIED was detonated and

two suicide bombers wearing explosive vests then attacked the same

location, it would be counted as two suicide attacks (one SVBIED and one

body-borne attack).

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TRISATRISAG-2

CONCLUSIONS Pakistan suffered 161 deaths from a total of seven suicide attacks in 2006.

Pakistani government figures show 3,433 Pakistanis were killed in 215

suicide attacks between July 2007 and July 2010.

According to the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, suicide attacks fell 22%,

from 87 in 2009 to 68 in 2010.

After President Pervez Musharraf ordered security forces to storm the Lal

Masjid (Red Mosque) on 10 July 2007, suicide attacks began to increase.

Before the incident, 75 people had been killed in 12 attacks; by the end of the

year, an additional 44 suicide attacks had killed 567 people.

Six of 86 suicide bombings (07%) occurred in Islamabad in 2009. In 2010, 0

of 66 (0%) suicide bombings occurred in Islamabad. As of 27 January 2011, 0

of 4 (0%) suicide bombings in 2011 occurred in Islamabad.

Forty-seven of 86 suicide bombings (55%) were vehicle-borne in 2009. In

2010, 23 of 66 (35%) suicide bombings were vehicle-borne. As of 27 January

2011, 2 of 4 (50%) suicide bombings in 2010 were vehicle-borne.

OEA TEAM



TRISATRADOC

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TRISATRISAG-2


G2

TRISATRISAG-2

CONCLUSIONS

Number of suicide attacks in Pakistan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Att

ac

ks

(2010 figures until Aug. 8)

OEA TEAM



TRISATRADOC

G2

TRISATRISAG-2


G2

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CONCLUSIONS

Fatalities in suicide attacks in Pakistan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

De

ath

s

(2010 f igures until Aug. 8)Source: South Asia Terrorism

OEA TEAM



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G2

TRISATRISAG-2

Variable Implications(Using PMESII-PT OE Variables)

Political:

• Pakistan faces a crisis of governance as bombing becomes a favored tactic of anti-

government militants. The recent wave of suicide bombing highlights the fault lines

between Taliban linked elements and the Pakistani establishment.

Military:

• Pakistan security forces, intelligence personnel and/or government personnel and/or

facilities were targeted in 61 of 86 (71%) suicide attacks in 2009. In 2011, at least 38 of 66

(58%) suicide attacks were directed against government targets. As of 27 January, at

least 3 of 4 (75%) suicide attacks in 2011 were directed against government targets.

Economic:

• Continued indiscriminate attacks can only have a negative economic outcome.

Social:

• Suicide bombings which kill civilians incite anger in the population. After a suicide

attack at a mosque Hayagai Sharqai (Northwest Frontier Province, Upper Dir District) on

05 June 2009, villagers attacked Taliban members.

42

OEA TEAM



TRISATRADOC

G2

TRISATRISAG-2


G2

TRISATRISAG-2

Variable Implications(Using PMESII-PT OE Variables)

Information:

• Pakistani Taliban portray suicide bombings as jihad against infidels.

• The Pakistan government could exploit attacks directed against civilians to elicit public

support against militants.

Infrastructure:

• Security forces have made many attempts to reduce access to possible targets but

these measures have not prevented continued suicide attacks.

Physical Environment:

• The physical environment of Pakistan does not limit the use of suicide bombs.

Time:

• The jihadist is patient and dedicated, even until death; governments are not as patient

and dedicated.

43

OEA TEAM



TRISATRADOC

G2

TRISATRISAG-2


G2

TRISATRISAG-2

POCs

OEA Team

913-684-7920 (COMM)

552-7920 (DSN)

TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA)

700 Scott Ave, Bldg 53

Ft Leavenworth, Ks 66027

44

OEA TEAM



TRISATRADOC

G2

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G2

TRISATRISAG-2

BCKS https://dcsint-threats.leavenworth.army.mil/default.aspx

45

https://dcsint-threats.leavenworth.army.mil/default.aspxhttps://dcsint-threats.leavenworth.army.mil/default.aspxhttps://dcsint-threats.leavenworth.army.mil/default.aspx

OEA TEAM



TRISATRADOC

G2

TRISATRISAG-2


G2

TRISATRISAG-2

AKO https://www.us.army.mil/suite/portal/index.jsp

46

https://www.us.army.mil/suite/files/11318389 (directlink)

https://www.us.army.mil/suite/portal/index.jsphttps://www.us.army.mil/suite/files/11318389https://www.us.army.mil/suite/files/11318389https://www.us.army.mil/suite/portal/index.jsphttps://www.us.army.mil/suite/portal/index.jsp

110127_SuicideAttacksPakistan_TRISA

oea team threat report oea team g-2g2 suicide …...attack at an awami national party political...

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