oecd-fao agricultural outlook 2013-2022: china fish...
TRANSCRIPT
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
2013-2022: China Fish Outlook
Stefania Vannuccini, FAO
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FISHERY SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS
• El niño will affect South American capture fisheries in 2015 and 2020
• Fishing quota under-fill will be minimal
• Aquaculture productivity gains will be smaller than in the previous decade
• New feeding technics will not prevent increase in the ratio of fish to oilseed meal price, especially in years of El niño
• The popularity of omega 3 fatty acids and growth in aquaculture production have increased the fish to oilseed oil price ratio
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CHINA: ROLE IN FISHERIES
• Leading world fisheries in both capture and aquaculture
• Leading world exporter of fish and fishery products
• Third major importer of fish and fishery products
• Leading processor of fish and fishery products
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FISHERY PRODUCTION: UTILIZATION
Fish production
(million tonnes live weight) Per capita fish supply (kg)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012
Aquaculture for human consumption
Capture for human consumption
Non-food uses
Per capita food fish supply
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STATE OF MARINE STOCKS
Moderately
exploited
Percentage of stocks assessed
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CHINA: FISHERY PRODUCTION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012
Aquaculture
Capture
Million tonnes (live weight)
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CONSTRAINTS
• Area losses because of urban development and/or for policy preference given to agriculture over aquaculture
• Water constraints (including quality of water) • Feed for fed species • Environmental challenges • Overcapacity and overfishing in the marine catches • Rising costs (labour, energy, land, etc) can lead to
rising prices • More competition from countries such as India,
Indonesia, Brazil and others
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CHINA: FISHERY PRODUCTION
Million tonnes (live weight)
Aquaculture
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Total fisheryproduction
Aquaculture
Capture
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DECLINING GROWTH RATES
Least square percent growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1983-1992 1993-2002 2003-2012 2013-2022
Aquaculture
Capture
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CHINA: SHARE IN WORLD AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
REST OF THE WORLD
CHINA
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CHINA: SHARE IN WORLD CAPTURE PRODUCTION
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Rest oftheworld
China
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CHINA: GROWING TRADE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Fish food exports
Fish food imports
Million tonnes (live weight)
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CHINA: EXPORTS OF FISH FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION (Q)
2010-2012
Africa 5%
North America
8% Latin
America and
Caribbean 10%
Europe 22%
China 21%
Other Asia and Pacific
34%
Africa 4%
North America
8%
Latin America
and Caribbean
11%
Europe 21%
China 22%
Other Asia and
Pacific 34%
2022
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CHINA: IMPORTS OF FISH FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION (Q)
2010-2012 2022
China 9%
Other Asia and Pacific
32%
Africa 10%
North America
15%
Latin America and
Caribbean 6%
Europe 28%
China 10%
Other Asia and
Pacific 31%
Africa 10%
North America
14%
Latin America
and Caribbean
7%
Europe 28%
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CHINA: IMPORTS OF FISHMEAL and FISH OIL
0
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0.8
1.2
1.6
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Million tonnes (live weight)
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WORLD FISHMEAL IMPORTS and CHINA
0
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2
3
4
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6
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Rest oftheworldChina
Million tonnes (live weight)
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GROWING FISH CONSUMPTION
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
China
Asia
World
kg per capita (live weight)
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SUMMARY
• China will maintain its key role in world fisheries
• Main capture, aquaculture producer and fish exporter
• Aquaculture, trade and consumption should continue to increase, but with a slower growth rate
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FUTURE PERSPECTIVES
• Productivity gains
• More intensive production
• Better feed conversion factors
• Improved technology
• Enhanced distribution and logistics
• Importance of continuous management of resources and of sustainability and environmental responsibility in aquaculture
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CONTACT
Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician (Commodities)
Statistics and Information Branch, Fisheries and Aquaculture Department
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