oecd work on food systems...oecd work on food systems co-operative research programme, 6 december...
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OECD work on food systems
Co-operative Research Programme, 6 December 2019
Koen DeconinckAgro-Food Trade and Markets Division
OECD
Food security and nutritionFeeding a world population that is expected to approach 10 billion by 2050 and providing adequate nutrition
Livelihoods and rural developmentProviding incomes to more than 500m farmers and others along the food chain, and supporting balanced development
Resource use and sustainabilityDoing so sustainably, i.e. using essentially the same amount of land and less water, while adapting to climate change and contributing to lower GHG emissions
The global food system is facing a daunting triple challenge
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Agriculture and food will increasingly be expected to contribute to lower global GHG emissions
Source: IPCC (2019) “Climate Change and Land”, Summary for Policymakers, Table SPM 1; FAOSTAT; Blandford and Hassapoyannes (2018) “The role of agriculture in global GHG mitigation,” OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 112
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1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
GtCO2eq
Livestock Rice cultivation Synthetic fertilizers Other
Direct emissions+0.5% per year
(1990-2016)
• Global cropproduction: +2.5% per year
• Global livestockproduction: +1.9% per year
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Agriculturalland usechange
Agriculture Rest of foodsystem
Total
Gigatonnes CO2 equivalent per year, 2007-16
Food and agriculture is 21-37% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions
(i.e. direct emissions)
Production growth will need to come from improved productivity
Plant breeding and improved seedBetter farm management practicesDigital technologies
Capital: machineryVariable inputs: fertiliser, pesticides
Land use change
Imagine what would have happened to land use if productivity had not increased!
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1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1960=100
Population Total agricultural land Global food production
Source: Population data from Maddison's historical statistics for 1820-1940; UN Population Division for 1950-2030; 1800 and 1810 extrapolated from Maddison. Agricultural (crops and pasture) land data for 1800-2010 from the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE 3.2), Klein Goldewijk et al. (2017). Global agricultural production data for 1960-2010 from FAOSTAT (Net Agricultural Production Index).
For the past 30 years, efficiency gains have accounted for the majority of output growth
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, International Agricultural Productivity estimates (October 2018 revision)
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1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-15
Expansion of agricultural land Extension of irrigation to croplandMore inputs per acre Improvements in total factor productivity
Sources of growth in global agricultural output, 1961-2015Annual growth rate (%)
TFP
But support to agriculture is still provided in ways that are economically inefficient and environmentally harmful
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750USD billion per year (2016-18)
Total Support to Agriculture:USD 705 bn - 29% of agricultural value-added
75% of all support to Agriculturegoes to producers individually
69% of all transfers to/from producersin the form of most distorting meaures:
MPS - 60%
Impl.Tax'ion
GSSE:15%
Cons:10%
Other producer support
Other support to agriculture
USD83 bn
Othermostdist.9%
The global food system has seen a drastic livelihoods transformation in just a few decades…
Indi
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Indo
nesia
Sout
h Af
rica
Braz
ilCh
ina
Arge
ntin
a
Mex
ico
Uru
guay
Chile
Turk
eyRu
ssia
n Fe
dera
tion
Pola
nd
Isra
el
Italy
New
Zea
land
Spai
n
Kore
a, R
ep.
Japa
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U.K.
Fran
ce
Finl
and
Belg
ium
Cana
da
Aust
ria
Aust
ralia
Ger
man
yN
ethe
rland
s
U.S.A.
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801961 2018
USD 7 859 USD 62 869
%
Countries ranked by GDP per capita, current USD PPP, 2018
Agriculture's share of total employment, 1961-2018
Open markets are increasingly important for food security…
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-50
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Agricultural trade balances by region, 1990-2027 (in constant value, bln USD)
Americas
Oceania
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Western Europe
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Middle East and North Africa
South and East Asia
Trade acts as a buffer to domestic shocks and – on balance – reduces price volatility
The regions experiencing population and demand growth are not those where supply can be increased sustainably
• Even when food prices were low, more than 800 million people were undernourished – food availability is not enough to end hunger
• A rising burden of overweight and obesity around the world –no country has succeeded in reversing the trend of rising obesity
• A triple burden of under-nourishment, over-nourishment and micronutrient deficiencies in many developing countries
• Poor nutritional outcomes are not just about food: other causes are inadequate sanitation, poor maternal and child care, disease (e.g. HIV)
• A clear need for a multi-pronged approach to nutrition:– Education and advice; soft and hard regulatory measures (e.g. on product composition);
arguably fiscal measures [OECD, 2019]
… but poor nutrition won’t be solved simply through increasing food availability
Food security & nutrition
Livelihoods and rural
development
Resource use &
climate change
Pricing natural resources versus farm incomesPaying for public goods
Higher farm incomes versus lower consumer prices
Income generation and food security
Lower livestock numbers versus protein availabilityHealthy diets and lower
emissions
What makes matters complicated are the synergies and trade-offs between these challenges
Livelihoods and rural
development
Resource use &
climate change
Food security & nutrition
Work on food security and nutrition
Work on livelihoods
Food security & nutrition
Resource use &
climate change
Livelihoods and rural
development
Work on resource use and climate change
Food security & nutrition
Livelihoods and rural
development
Resource use &
climate change
How should policymakers create coherent policies when faced with trade-offs and synergies?
Food security & nutrition
Resource use &
climate change
Livelihoods and rural
development
Some priorities can be pursued independently via targeted policies
A food systems approach becomes important when there are major spill-overs across policy areas
What does it involve?Calibration of policies (e.g. “sustainable diets”)
Mediation of policy-trade offs (e.g. livestock livelihoods vs emissions)
SubstancePolicymakers need to understand the magnitude of synergies and trade-offs and the need for calibration of policies
Scenario analysis will inform this: e.g. how “sustainable” are “healthier” diets?
ProcessPolicies need to:
(i) redress gaps between beliefs and the evidence base;(ii) provide coordination across different policy communities;(iii) achieve social acceptance for the policies that prioritise one objective over another (mediation)Three case studies will be used to examine how countries are addressing these issues: seeds (upstream), livestock, processed food (downstream)
Ongoing work will consider how policy coherence can be improved
Thank you!
Ellie Avery ([email protected]) Jonathan Brooks ([email protected]) Koen Deconinck ([email protected])