本中心辦理「越南因應國際政經局勢變動之對 策與ttpppp 替替代 …...

29
TPP 編輯部 由本中心於 2017 4 20 日假中華經濟研 究院舉行舉辦「越南因應國際政經局勢變動之對 策與 TPP 替代方案」專題演講,邀越南工商部產 業與貿易資訊中心( Vietnam Industry and Trade Information Center, Ministry of Industry and Trade )副所長黎國方博士( Dr. Le Quoc Phuong ),以「越南因應國際政經局勢變動之對 策與 TPP 替代方案」為題,發表專題報告。 越南自 1986 年推動革新政策( Doi Moi policy ),逐漸走向市場經濟,至今 30 年之經濟 改革與開放,締造越南亮麗的經濟表現。不過, 2016 年起先有英國脫歐公投事件,後有川普 當選美國總統,就任後即刻正式退出 TPP ,使國 際經貿局勢掀起波瀾,衝擊越南經濟發展。在亞 洲方面,《區域全面經濟夥伴協定( Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP )》 P.1 ◆本中心辦理「越南因應國際政經局勢變動之對策與 TPP 替代方案」專題演 講-編輯部 P.5 中國在東協地區的高鐵外交-李瓊莉 P.11 經營權爭奪、少數股東與國際投資仲裁─新加坡商 Surfeit 控訴我國之國際 投資仲裁案淺析-羅傑 P.19 ◆臺商在越南產業投資現況與發展障礙-以汽車及其零組件產業為例-龔鈺 P.25 ◆在低碳趨勢下東協發展碳封存之政策評析以越南為例-黃柏誠、宋文惠

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  • TTPPPP

    2017 4 20

    TPP

    Vietnam Industry and Trade

    Information Center, Ministry of Industry and

    Trade Dr. Le Quoc

    Phuong

    TPP

    1986 Doi Moi

    policy 30

    2016

    TPP

    Regional

    Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP

    P.1 TPP

    P.5

    P.11 Surfeit

    P.19

    P.25

  • 2 015

    2016

    1986

    Council of Mutual Economic Assistance

    CMEA

    CMEA

    (FDI) 1986

    1987

    1989

    86

    46 40

    FTA

    2015 12

    RCEP

    1986 8

    2016 179

    225

    60%

    20162017

    TPP

    1

    TPP

    Brexit

    2016 6 23

    2018 2019

  • TPP 03

    17% GDP

    GDP

    11

    20%

    8% (ODA)

    EU-Vietnam

    Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, PCA

    EU-ASEAN Cooperation

    AgreementEU Generalized

    Scheme of Preferences, GSP +

    /

    EU-Vietnam Free Trade

    AgreementEVFTA 12 12

    2018

    20% 8%

    3%

    1.5%

    2018

    2019

    1

    23

    4

    2

    TPP

    TPP

    The Trans-Pacific

    Partnership, TPP 12

    2008

    12 2016

    2018

    2017 1 23

    TPP

    TPP

  • 4 015

    TPP TPP

    TPP

    40 25 TPP

    TPP

    TPP

    TPP

    TPP

    1. TPP TPP

    85%

    TPP GDP 40%

    TPP

    2. TPPTPP-11

    TPP

    TPP 2017 1

    TPP

    11

    3. TPP

    TPP

    TPP

    1 TPP-11

    23

    RCEP FTA 4

    RCEP TPP

    RCEP TPP

    7

    RCEP

    TPP RCEP GDP

    25% TPP GDP

    40%TPP

    RCEP

    RCEP RCEP

    TPP

    3

    TPP

  • (state-led)

    (business-driven) (strategic

    choice) (economic

    statecraft) (High Speed Rail

    Diplomacy) (Belts and Roads

    Initiative, BRI)

    1570 2006

    2010 6

    560

    GDP2016 10

    2018

    ( - -

    -)

    142.3

    2010 2015 7

    2015 9

    2015

    (China-Indonesia

    Consortium, KCIC)

    75% KCIC

    2016 1

    2019

    350 2013 2

    2014

    4 2015 9

    (MyHSR Corp.)

    2016 7

    2016 12

    2017

    2018 2026

  • 6 015

    1500

    1995

    670

    Phitsanulok,380 2019

    2023

    (NongKhai)

    873 2014 12

    (China Railway Corp.)

    (Nakhon Ratchasima) 250

    (Vientiane)

    418 2015 11

    70%

    30% 2020

    Gemas-Johor

    Bahru

    197 2015 12

    2016 2020

    620 2016 11

    (China Communications Construction Co.)

    (China EximBank) 2022

    (Preah Vihear-Koh Kong)

    400 2012

    12

    North-South Railway

    Project (NSRP)

    653 3 26

    public-private-partnership

    (Subic-Clark Railway) 65

    Surabaya

    685 Japan International

    Cooperation Agency (JICA)

    (Japan Transportation Consultant)

    -

    1920 2011 2016

    12

    2011 2014

  • 7

    2015

    OECD (Development

    Assistance Committee)

    (Official Development Assistance, ODA)

    ODA

    concessional

    (export credit)

    ODAODA

    (foreign aid)

    ODA

    ODA

    Public-Private Partnership,

    PPP

    ODA

    (China Development Bank, CDB)

    (Export-Import Bank, Eximbank)

    1994

    Chinas State Council

    (export credit)

    (concessional

    loans)

    (Silk Road Infrastructure Fund) 400

    100 65%

    15%15%

    (China Investment Corporation)5%

  • 8 015

    (China Development Bank)

    1964

    (Belt and

    Road Initiatives, BRI)BRI

    60

    (AIIB)

    (the New Development Bank), (The

    Silk Road Fund)

    (China Railway Group Ltd, CREC) 2017

    (on-site accountability)

    (degradation) (community

    displacement)

    TPP

    TPP

    2016

    Nong Khai Rayong

    Nokhon Ratchasima

    BRI

  • 9

    IMF

    1.6

    2010

    (Master Plan of ASEAN Connectivity)

    (physical connectivity)

    (ASEAN Infrastructure Fund)

    650

    2009

    (Infrastructure for a Seamless

    Asia)2010 2020

    7992

    4088 1055

    2466

    381

    3167 1762

    1620

    2230

    (poverty alleviation)

    APEC

    2013

    APEC APEC APEC

    APEC

    World Economic Forum

    Global Competitiveness

    Report 2014-2015 138

    7 6.1

    6.0

    5.8 15 5.5

    23 5.1 36 4.6

    46 4.3 60 70

    3.5

    2.1

    136

    3.5

    ODA

    60 70

    23 46

  • 10 015

  • SSuurrffeeiitt

    2014

    2016 4 27

    Surfeit Harvest Investment

    Holding Pte Ltd. Surfeit

    2013 11 7 2014 4 19

    ASTEP 9

    Surfeit

    ASTEP 2016 12

    PCA Surfeit

    1

    Investor-State

    Dispute Settlement, ISDS

    1

    2017 05 08

    15 59

    http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/201705080

    04415-260410

    2017 1 25

    http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/business/paper/1073835;

    PCA The Permanent

    Court of Arbitration Website,

    https://pca-cpa.org/en/cases/

    ISDS

    ASTEP Surfeit

    103 104 2

    2005 6

    14

    2005 7 5

    7 21

    365.68

    2005 2008

    2011

    2014

    24

    2 103 104

    103 104

    2016 4 27

    http://jirs.judicial.gov.tw/GNNWS/NNWSS002.asp?i

    d=223260

  • 12 015

    2005 7 5

    7 21

    165 5800

    40.21%

    Surfeit

    ISDS

    (

    )

    5 8 Surfeit 4 17

    ISDS

    Surfeit

    ISDS

    3

    ISDS

    ISDS

    International

    Investment Arrangements, IIAs

    IIAs

    ISDS

    ISDS

    4

    3

    2017 05 08

    15 59

    http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/201705080

    04415-260410

    2017 1 25

    http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/business/paper/1073835 4 ISDS CAMPBELL MCLACHLAN

    ET.AL., INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT

    ARBITRATION 26-34, 45-76 (2007)

    GUS VAN HARTEN, INVESTMENT

    TREATY ARBITRATION AND PUBLIC LAW

  • Surfeit 13

    ISDS

    ICSID

    Convention of the Recognition and Enforcement

    of Foreign Arbitration Awards,

    ISDS

    consent

    IIAs

    IIAs

    (offer) IIA

    5

    ASTEP 9.16 ISDS

    ( )

    ASTEP 9

    6 ISDS

    6

    UNCITRAL Arbitration rule

    ICC Arbitration rule

    (2007); ERIC DE BRABANDERE, INVESTMENT

    TREATY ARBITRATION AS PUBLIC

    INTERNATIONAL LAW 42-49 (2014) ISDS

    ASTEP 16.8

    5 Rudolf Dolzer & Christoph Schreuer, Principles of

    International Investment Law 1-19 (2012);

    Christopher Dugan et. al., Investor-State Arbitration

    11-32 (2008). 6 ISDS

    7

    90 PCA

    8 ISDS

    9

    10

    ASTEP ISDS

    Surfeit

    Surfeit

    ISDS

    11 IIAs

    IIAs

    IIA

    ISDS

    7

    6

    Zachary Douglas, 158-160 8 ASTEP 9.16 6 9 ASTEP 9.16 4 10 10 ASTEP 9.16 13 11 See generally, ZACHARY

    DOUGLAS, THE INTERNATIONAL LAW OF INVESTMENT

    CLAIMS 233-344 (2009).

  • 14 015

    12

    ASTEP

    9.2 1

    (a)

    (b)

    9.16

    1

    13

    ASTEP 9.2 5

    :Surfeit ASTEP

    12

    see MCLACHLAN ET.AL, supra note 4, at

    99-103 JAMES CRAWFORD, STATE RESPONSIBILITY:

    THE GENERAL PART 99- 113, 126-29 (2013) 13 ASTEP9.2.1 1.This Chapter applies to measures

    adopted or maintained by a Party relating to:

    (a)investors of the other Party;

    (b)covered investments; and

    (c)with respect to Article 9.9 (Performance

    Requirements), all investments in the territory of the Party.

    ASTEP9.16.1 This Article shall apply to disputes between a Party and an investor of the other Party

    concerning an alleged breach of an obligation of the

    former under this Chapter which causes loss or

    damage to the investor or its investment.

    ASTEP

    14ASTEP 9.1

    15

    ASTEP

    9

    16

    Surfeit

    ASTEP

    ASTEP

    Surfeit 2015

    6

    2014 4 ASTEP

    ASTEP ISDS

    17

    Surfeit

    14 IIAs (pre-establishment)

    15 16 16

    1718

    17

    2017 3 24 22:05

    https://udn.com/news/story/7239/2363378

  • Surfeit 15

    Surfeit

    ASTEP 9.1

    18 ASTEP

    Surfeit

    Surfeit

    ASTEP

    Surfeit

    International Court of Justice

    19 ISDS

    20

    18 19 Barcelona Traction,

    Light and Power Co. Ltd (Behgium v. Spain), 1970

    I.C.J. 3 (Feb.5)See also Ursula

    Kriebaum, The Nature of Investment Disciplines in

    THE FOUNDATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT LAW 45 (Douglas et. al., eds, 2014).

    20 AAPL v Sri Lanka,

    ICSID Case No. ARB/87/3, Award, (27 Iune 1990)

    CMS Gas Transmission Co. v. Republic of Argentina,

    21

    ASTEP

    22

    Surfeit

    Surfeit

    Surfeit 2014

    Republic of Argentina v. NML Capital,

    Ltd.23

    Surfeit

    ASTEP

    IIA

    ICSID Case No. ARB/01/8, Decision on Jurisdiction

    (17 ]uly 2003)See also Ursula

    Kriebaum, id.

    21 ASTEP 9.16 3

    22 DOUGLAS, supra note 11, at 297-99. 23 Surfeit

  • 16 015

    ASTEP 9.2 5

    2014 4 19 ASTEP

    ASTEP

    2011

    ASTEP

    24 Surfeit

    ASTEP

    IIAs

    ISDS

    ISDS

    IIAs

    25

    Surfeit

    24 20122012

    U.S. Model Bilateral Investment Treaty (2012),

    available at

    http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/188371

    .pdf; Lee M Caplan & Jeremy K Sharpe, United

    States, in Commentary on Selected Model Investment

    Treaties 774 (Chester Brown ed., 2014). 25 Mclachlan Et.Al, supra note 4, at 99-103.

    ASTEP

    ISDS

    Surfeit

    ISDS

    ASTEP

    ISDS

    ASTEP 9.3 1

    10

    26

    9.3

    1

    2

    9.12 9.13

    9.14

    Surfeit 9.12

    27

    26 ASTEP 9.3 20

    ( ) 27

  • Surfeit 17

    ASTEP 9.12 1

    28

    Police Power

    IIA

    legitimate

    expectation 29

    Surfeit

    28

    Vattenfall v.Germany

    44 3 2014 9 305-358;

    2013 7 29

    Surfeit

    Surfeit

    Surfeit 2015 6

    Surfeit

    Surfeit

    Surfeit

    ASTEP 9.16 12 (b)

    restitution of property

    (b)

    (i)

    (ii)

  • 18 015

    30

    ISDS

    31 ISDS

    32

    ASTEP

    specific performance

    33

    Surfeit

    Surfeit

    Surfeit

    30 31 See generally Borzu Sabahi, Compensation and

    Restitution in Investor-State Arbitration: Principles and Practice 72-86 (2011).

    32 Id. 33 2012

    2012 U.S. Model Bilateral Investment Treaty

    (2012), 34, available at

    http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/188371

    .pdf; Lee M Caplan & Jeremy

    K Sharpe, United States, in Commentary on Selected

    Model Investment Treaties 843-47 (Chester Brown ed.,

    2014) [general introduction on the development of

    2012 US model BIT]

    ASTEP

    Surfeit

    ASTEP ISDS

    Surfeit

    ASTEP

    Surfeit

  • Association of Southeast

    Asian Nation, ASEAN

    2015 12 31

    ASEAN Economic Community, AEC

    1

    Organization for

    Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD

    2017

    Economic Outlook for

    Southeast Asia, China and India 2017Addressing

    Energy Challenges 2017 2021

    5.1%

    6.1% 2

    1

    31-33

    http://info2.taiwantrade.com/CH/resources/MAIN/T

    C/S0/newsouth/guide.pdf 2 OECD, Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China

    and India 2017Addressing Energy Challenges

    (Preliminary Version),

    http://www.oecd.org/dev/asia-pacific/SAEO2017_P

    V.pdf.

    2016

    122 2005 2016

    3

    2017 1

    77 6

    4 4

    5

    3

    http://cus93.trade.gov.tw/fsci/ 4 4

    http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20170402

    001707-2604082017 4 21

    5 AEC

  • 20 015

    43

    53

    61 6

    2000

    7

    2002 12

    2010 2020

    8

    9

    2016

    80

    60

    160-772015 6 7 8 Viet Nam News, Incentives Urged to Boost Support

    Industries,

    http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/Industries/216

    360/incentives-urged-to-boost-support-industries.ht

    ml (last visited Feb. 15, 2017). 9 Id.

    18 38

    10 2016

    2025 2035

    2020 2030

    11

    2010 2016

    2014

    2016 24

    2015 17

    38 1 2010 2016

    2012

    2016

    27 2015

    21 29 2

    SEAN AUTOMOTIVE FEDERATION,

    http://www.asean-autofed.com/statistics.html

    1 2010 2016

    10

    https://read01.com/0kgomK.html

    2017 2 16 11

  • 21

    SEAN AUTOMOTIVE FEDERATION,

    http://www.asean-autofed.com/statistics.html

    2 2010 2016

    Truong Hai Auto Corporation, THAC

    1997 4

    Complete Knock Down, CKD

    15% 40

    Hyundai-KIAMazda

    Peugeot

    12

    100%

    13

    14

    Toyota

    12 THACO,

    http://www.truonghaiauto.com.vn/en/about-us/Overv

    iew-Introduction/. 13

    http://hochiminh.taiwantrade.com/news/detail.jsp?id

    =348&...2017 2 16 14

    HondaNissan

    Hino Isuzu

    Multi-Purpose Vehicle, MPV15

    Hyundai-KIA

    16

    General Motors, GMFord

    Mercedes- Benz

    SYM 17

    46 18

    2016

    Hyundai-KIA

    THAC

    26.3%Toyota

    18.7% Vina

    Mazda 10.5%

    15

    48-91 16 17 18

    http://www.aseancenter.org.tw/upload/files/%AAF%

    A8%F3%B0%EA%AEa%B2%A3%B7~%A4%C9%A

    F%C5%ABe%B4%BA%BBP%BBO%C6W%AB%B4

    %BE%F7%AC%E3%B0Q%B7%7C%A4T%B6%A7

    %AD%D3%AE%D7%B3%F8%A7i%C0%C9090616.

    pdf

  • 22 015

    10%SYM

    0.1%

    19

    SANYANG

    MOTOR VIETNAM Co., Ltd., SMV 2007

    SYM SMV

    Original Equipment Manufacturer,

    OEM

    20

    LED

    2

    21

    2007 1 WTO

    WTO 7

    30 22

    (Common Effective Preferential Tariff, CEPT)

    19 Automotive Industry Portal MARKLINES, Vietnam -

    Sales of locally assembled vehicles,

    https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/

    salesfig_vietnam_2016 (last visited Feb. 15, 2017) . 20

    http://www.sanyang.com.tw/global/con_show.php?o

    p=showone&cid=42017 2 16

    21

    http://info.taiwantrade.com/CH/bizsearchdetail/7842

    254/C/2017 2 16 22 5

    2015 2017 3520

    10 2018 23

    24

    25

    2015 10 28

    Special Consumption Tax, SCT

    70/2014/QH13 2016 1

    1 26

    24

    10% 60%

    27

    23 24 25 15 26 (2016) 1 1

    24

    http://info.taiwantrade.com/CH/bizsearchdetail/8074

    703/C2017 2 13 27

  • 23

    28

    29

    30

    28

    44-502016 29 15 30

    31

    32

    2020 320 350

    50 60

    2016

    35

    57.74% 30.1

    18 60

    63.03%

    33

    31 32

    http://info.taiwantrade.com/biznews/%E8%B6%8A

    %E5%8D%97%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E5%B0

    %87%E5%8A%A0%E5%BC%B7%E8%BC%94%E5

    %B0%8E%E4%B8%A6%E6%AA%A2%E6%9F%A5

    %E4%BC%81%E6%A5%AD%E5%9F%B7%E8%A1

    %8C%E8%81%B7%E5%A0%B4%E5%AE%89%E5

    %85%A8%E5%92%8C%E8%A1%9B%E7%94%9F%

    E7%9A%84%E8%A6%8F%E5%AE%9A-%E8%97%

    89%E4%BB%A5%E9%99%8D%E4%BD%8E%E5%

    8B%9E%E5%8B%95%E6%84%8F%E5%A4%96%E

    7%99%BC%E7%94%9F%E4%BB%B6%E6%95%B8

    -999293.html2017 2 13 33 United States Census Bureau, International Data

    Base,

    http://www.census.gov/population/international/data

  • 24 015

    2020

    3,200 3,500 34

    /idb/region.php?N=%20Results%20&T=12&

    A=separate&RT=0&Y=2020&R=-1&C=VM (last visited Feb. 16, 2017).

    34

    2016 2020 GDP 6.5%

    7%

    http://www.roc-taiwan.org/vnsgn/post/4414.html

    2017 2 16

  • WTO RTA

    65%

    1970

    90%1

    2015

    21 CPO

    21

    Paris

    Agreement

    1.5C

    2020

    1 US Environmental Protection Agency2016, Global

    Greenhouses Gas Emissions Data,

    https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse

    -gas-emissions-data#main-content accessed on June

    7, 2017 .

    2007

    13 9

    13

    2

    2 2017

    14 27~31

  • 26 015

    1995

    64.6% 2007 72.4%

    1995 2007

    13.0%

    6.5% 2.2% 3

    2016

    5.52%

    2000

    2010

    4%~5%

    3 Global CCS Institute2014, ASEAN CCS Strategic

    Considerations, pp.4~5,

    https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/publications/asean

    -ccs-strategic-considerationsaccessed on June 7,

    2017 .

    Carbon

    Capture and Storage, CCS

    4 International

    Energy Agency, IEA 2013 2050

    2C

    5

    ASEAN Energy Center,

    AEC 2015

    2035

    Business as Usual, BAU

    Advancing Policies Scenario, APS

    BAU

    APS

    4

    CO2

    5 IEA 2016, Energy Technology Perspectives 2016:

    towards Sustainable Urban Energy Systems,

    https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/pub

    lication/EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2016_Executiv

    eSummary_EnglishVersion.pdf accessed on June 7,

    2017 .

  • 27

    6

    CCS

    7 CCS

    Global

    CCS Institute2016Global

    Status of CCS: 2016 2016

    38 CCS

    21 6

    advanced planning

    11 2017

    CCS 20 30

    4

    IEA 2009

    2050 CCS

    14%

    6 AESEAN Center for Energy (2015), The 4th ASEAN

    Energy Outlook, p.5,

    https://app.box.com/s/tzjb0tc2yoam6tonjv0ujx0xbhnw

    ug3zaccessed on June 7, 2017 . 7 IEA, Topics: Carbon Capture and Storage,

    https://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/accessed on June 8,

    2017 .

    CCS

    CCS 8

    2012

    2020~2025

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    Natural Gas

    Combined-Cycle

    natural

    8 Global CCS Institute2014, ASEAN CCS Strategic

    Considerations, pp.7~13,accessed on June 7, 2017.

  • 28 015

    gas-processing stations

    9 CCS

    CCS CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    1 CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    50

    70

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    9 Asia Development Bank2013 , Prospects for

    Carbon Capture and Storage in Southeast Asia,

    https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/31

    122/carbon-capture-storage-southeast-asia.pdf

    accessed on June 2, 2017 .

    CCS

    2005

    Ministry of Industry

    and Trade, MoIT

    Ministry of

    Natural Resources and

    Environment,

    MoNRE

    CCS

    CCS

    EOR

    EOR

    EOR

    EOR

    CO2-EOR

    CCS

    17.5

    CCS

    Asia Development Bank2013 ,

    Prospects for Carbon Capture and Storage in

    Southeast Asia

  • 29

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS 10

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    CCS

    2020~2025

    10 Hoan Anh Nguyen Trinh, Minh Ha-Duong.

    Perspective of CO2 capture & storage (CCS)

    development in Vietnam: Results from expert

    interviews. International Journal of GreenhouseGas

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