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OESAAutomotive Supplier BarometerFocus on Financial Outlook
Detroit – Washington D. C.
July 13-15, 201596 Survey Responses
The OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer is published with the support of Deloitte LLP.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer Executive Summary
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.
OESA received 96 responses to this Barometer survey.
The Supplier Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to remain positive, and shows improvement with the SSI coming in 4 points higher than the May index to a July level of 57. Suppliers are feeling better about global business opportunities and new business in diversified markets. Concern comes from the expected leveling-off of production and sales volumes, pricing pressures and world events, particularly noted was China and Greece. (See pages 7-12)
To meet 2016 production volumes, companies continue to make capital equipment purchases their priority (consistent with results from 2014 and 2013. Hiring of direct hourly employees is next in importance. (See pages 13-14)
Eighty-seven percent of respondents expect revenue to increase for next year with 24 percent of responding suppliers anticipating 20 percent or more growth. Seventy-one percent of companies are forecasting higher year-over-year EBIT levels for 2016, down from 84 percent last year. More than half of all respondents indicate increasing budgets for investments in plant and equipment, advanced research, information technology and talent and training; fewer than expect increases in SG&A. (See pages 15-16)
Assuming constant production volumes for 2016, respondents indicated utility budgets will increase the most followed respectively by customer specific product development, transportation/logistics, purchased components, tooling, direct metallic materials then direct resin materials. (See pages 17-18)
As automotive suppliers plan business strategies over the next five years, 71 percent expect to increase their value add content through vertical integration. (See pages 19-20)
2
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer Executive Summary
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.
There is little change anticipated in company sales mix over the next 5 years compared to current mix. (See pages 21-22)
With regard to days receivables and day payables, the average number of days sales outstanding (DSO) is improving compared to the last two years. The median DSO is now 48 compared to 50 in 2014 and 2013. The median number of days payable outstanding (DPO) is unchanged over three years at 45. (See pages 23-25)
The continued likelihood of companies making acquisitions over the next 12 months remains front of mind for most suppliers with 55 percent indicating a moderate or high likelihood of occurrence. (See pages 26-27)
Strategic priorities for acquisitions are broad. The strategies that rated above neutral include (in order of priority) are accelerating access to new technologies, accessing new customers through expansion into new geographic markets, building market share, following an existing customer into new geographic markets and vertically integrating supply chain or product offerings. (See pages 28-30)
By far, the most significant short-term internal challenges that suppliers face in reaching 2015/2016 business plans are HR related; talent acquisition, retention and training. (See pages 31-34)
Paralleling the short-term challenge related to HR, this concern is also the primary response from suppliers for long-term internal challenges. (See pages 35-38)
3
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer Summary Details The July OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer theme is financial outlook. OESA received 96 responses
to this Barometer survey.
The Supplier Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to remain positive, and shows improvement with the SSI coming in 4 points higher than the May index to a July level of 57. The improving outlook stems from a slight increase in the significantly more optimistic view and an even larger increase in the somewhat more optimistic view as compared to May levels. Optimism is more prevalent with supplier companies having less than $50 million in revenue and in companies with revenue greater than $1 billion. The mid-range companies indicate a bit more pessimism. Suppliers are feeling better about global business opportunities and new business in diversified markets. Concern comes from the expected leveling-off of production and sales volumes, pricing pressures and world events, particularly noted was China and Greece. (See pages 7-12)
To meet 2016 production volumes, companies continue to make capital equipment purchases their priority (consistent with results from 2014 and 2013. Hiring of direct hourly employees is next in importance, overtaking the hiring of salaried employees in 2014 and 2013. Opening additional facilities was rated lowest of the set of actionable priorities. Gaining efficiencies and utilizing open capacity are additional focal points (See pages 13-14)
The 2016 outlook for financial performance remains strong though budgeted revenue and EBIT is down slightly compared to last year. Eighty-seven percent of respondents expect revenue to increase for next year with 24 percent of responding suppliers anticipating 20 percent or more growth. Seventy-one percent of companies are forecasting higher year-over-year EBIT levels for 2016, down from 84 percent last year. More than half of all respondents indicate increasing budgets for investments in plant and equipment, advanced research, information technology and talent and training; fewer than expect increases in SG&A. (See pages 15-16)
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.4
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer Detailed Summary (continued)
Assuming constant production volumes for 2016, respondents indicated utility budgets will increase the most followed respectively by customer specific product development, transportation/logistics, purchased components, tooling, direct metallic materials then direct resin materials. (See pages 17-18)
As automotive suppliers plan business strategies over the next five years, 71 percent expect to increase their value add content through vertical integration. Twenty-four percent will remain unchanged while 5 percent will decrease value add. (See pages 19-20)
There is little change anticipated in company sales mix over the next 5 years compared to current mix. D3 customers remain primary with tier automotive suppliers second. Interestingly, when this survey question was asked in 2011, the forecasts for 2015/2016 sales mix very closely predicted current sales mix values. (See pages 21-22)
With regard to days receivables and day payables, the average number of days sales outstanding (DSO) is improving compared to the last two years. The median DSO is now 48 compared to 50 in 2014 and 2013. The median number of days payable outstanding (DPO) is unchanged over three years at 45. (See pages 23-25)
The continued likelihood of companies making acquisitions over the next 12 months remains front of mind for most suppliers with 55 percent indicating a moderate or high likelihood of occurrence. Year-over-year interest in an acquisition for companies with revenue of $150 million or less declined from 60 percent 47 percent. Mid-range suppliers (revenue is $151-$500 million show increased interest. Larger companies with more than $500 million remain largely unchanged in acquisition interest. Divestitures on the other hand, remain a low likelihood with 91 percent of all respondent companies indicating an unlikely event. (See pages 26-27)
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.5
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer Detailed Summary (continued)
Strategic priorities for acquisitions are broad. The strategies that rated above neutral include (in order of priority) are accelerating access to new technologies, accessing new customers through expansion into new geographic markets, building market share, following an existing customer into new geographic markets and vertically integrating supply chain or product offerings. Diversification into markets outside of light vehicle or transportation are not considered a priority for most companies. (See pages 28-30)
By far, the most significant short-term internal challenges that suppliers face in reaching 2015/2016 business plans are HR related; talent acquisition, retention and training. Additional challenges include margin protection, capital planning and launch capabilities. Short-term external challenges noted include (and more balanced among suppliers) pricing/competition, economy, growth, global markets, and customer management. (See pages 31-34)
Paralleling the short-term challenge related to HR, this concern is also the primary response from suppliers for long-term internal challenges. Maintaining profit margins, capacity/footprint/capital planning, productivity, products/technology are other noted challenges. Suppliers identify the predominant long-term external challenge as globalization/competition followed closely by market demand. Other concerns include customer management, economy, sales/profitability. (See pages 35-38)
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.6
Describe the general twelve month outlook for your business. Over the past two months, has your opinion become:
9%
24%
53%
13%
1%5%
15%
67%
14%0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Significantlymore optimistic
Somewhat moreoptimistic
Unchanged Somewhat morepessimistic
Significantlymore
pessimisticJul-15 May-15
No. of Responses = 94 OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.7
Barometer Results By Company Revenue
23%
17%
6% 7% 8% 10%
32%
33%
19%
7% 25%
10% 20
% 8%
25%
19%
36%
25%
38%
71%
65%
81%
80%
67%
55%
74%
5%
25%
38%
14% 10
%
10%
17% 10
% 7%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Significantly more pessimistic
Somewhat more pessimistic
Unchanged
Somewhat more optimistic
Significantly more optimistic
<$50 million
$50-$150 million
$151-$500 million
$501 million –$1 billion
>$1 billion
Global AutomotiveRevenue
# of responses
in July
# of responses
in May
<$50 million 22 12
$50-$150 million 16 14
$151-$500 million 20 21
$501 million -$1 billion 10 12
>$1 billion 20 27
MayJuly
No. of Responses = 88
MayJuly MayJuly MayJuly MayJuly
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.8
Significantly More Optimistic New product gaining acceptance, I do not have the same optimistic view of the overall market. Business is growing due to strong dollar allowing us to import more and strengthens competitiveness. Due to the big investments from the OEM in Mexico it seems there will be a lot of opportunities to grow. Several new programs and development opportunities. Launching new program in Asia.
Somewhat More Optimistic Higher SAAR than the initial forecast. We continue to win additional programs and we continue discussions on further expansion. The strong US dollar has been hurting our international sales, but we won a few key projects in the
past two months. Growth in non-core business and more application of core business in vehicles. Material costs continue to moderate. OEMs insourcing product engineering work. Many of new technologies are being implemented. Second quarter releases had come in lower than expected. However, we finished very strong. Outlook
is positive. Our product market overall looking good for Tier1 and Tier2 brands due to Chinese product tariffs. In
regards to OEMs, the competition is getting more intense and harder for new suppliers to enter. Market continues to thrive but capital purchases are slow. Increased business prospects for more diversified products than what had been forecasted and
volumes of present business either staying consistent or increasing. More RFQs from a variety of industries besides just automotive coming into our organization.
Describe the general twelve month outlook for your business. Over the past two months, has your opinion become…comments:
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.9
Unchanged Slow growth for the next three years, possible market correction at end of 2016. Customers delay decision making as long as possible, jeopardizing successful new launches and the
viability of incoming business. Still worried about labor market and how it affects product planning and global manufacturing plans at
OEMs. China is a great concern along with the prolonged economic issues in Brazil and Argentina. Concerned with China and EU "hot spots", while optimistic about NA. As equipment suppliers, we have seen a rather robust twelve months. Based on discussions with our
customers, this looks to continue through this year. Every day is one more step closer to the next dip. The question is, how big of a dip? Outlook continues to be optimistic. US based automotive manufacturing is holding up well. There are some global issues, China and
Greece in particular that need to be watched closely. Business is good, but risks remain significant that world events could disrupt economic growth in NA. Volumes steady, and adding new customers which is our priority. Concerns remain regarding the UAW negotiations. I think we are in for a flat period of years ahead, especially for domestic producers.
Describe the general twelve month outlook for your business. Over the past two months, has your opinion become…comments: (continued)
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.10
Somewhat More Pessimistic Much more pricing pressure. No growth change in N.A., EU and China outlook down. Volumes have plateaued if not reduced. New launch delayed, not many new opportunities. Negative world events. Seeing a slight slow-down in volume for the next two to three months but expect it to return to normal
later in the year. Watching China and Greece situations. Concerns over China volumes. Strange mix of small car versus truck sales - going against CAFE requirements - driven by gas prices.
Significantly More Pessimistic Declining sales due global commodity prices.
Describe the general twelve month outlook for your business. Over the past two months, has your opinion become…comments: (continued)
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.11
OESA Automotive Supplier Sentiment IndexCompared to two months ago,
how has your 12 month outlook changed?Po
sitiv
eN
egat
ive
52
61
7166
50 51
37
52
66 6460
55
4651
55 5562 60
6660 60
56 59 6156 56
6155 53
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
No. of Responses = 94 OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.12
2015 Rating
2014 Rating
2013 Rating
3.48 3.49 3.59
4.00 3.64 3.98
3.83 4.03 4.23
4.79 4.79 5.11
5.35 5.23 4.89
6.15 5.74 6.34
6.34 6.39 6.41
5.28 6.49 5.83
7.36 7.73 7.48
Rate the following actions your company is budgeting for in North America to meet expected 2016 volume increases
Percent of respondents
13%
11%
12%
15%
2%
7%
4%
7%
5%
28%
20%
22%
19%
6%
9%
3%
11%
9%
21%
28%
21%
10%
17%
12%
11%
16%
8%
3%
10%
7%
18%
7%
7%
11%
17%
15%
15%
7%
14%
5%
17%
12%
14%
1%
3%
4%
6%
9%
3%
5%
5%
4%
9%
9%
7%
9%
6%
5%
9%
4%
5%
2%
10%
9%
11%
14%
10%
9%
3%
6%
5%
18%
16%
39%
33%
20%
64%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Purchase capital equipment
Hire direct salaried employees
Hire direct hourly employees
Expand current facilityfootprint
Hire temporary/contractemployees
Open additional facilities
Acquire companies
Partner with companies (JVs,licensing, mfg outsourcing)
Other (specify below)
Highest Priority = 1 Rating = 2 Rating = 3Rating = 4 Neutral = 5 Rating = 6Rating = 7 Rating = 8 Lowest Priority = 9
No. of Responses = 94-95 OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.13
Rate the following actions your company is budgeting for in North America to meet expected 2016 volume increases (continued)
Other Actions: Focusing on using open capacity. Continue to tackle inefficiencies and open capacity with existing resources. Upgrade training of current employees to meet and exceed additional expectations of our customers. Diversify customer base.
Comments New product rollout. 2016 equipment mostly purchased already. We have room to grow without expanding our footprint. Our main constrain to grow is lack of capital so we are looking for partners that can help us in this matter.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.14
For your next fiscal year, what is your budgeted percentage change in each of the following financial metrics (compared to current year budget)?
Percent of respondents
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
4%
5%
17%
16%
12%
6%
2%
11%
32%
20%
19%
23%
13%
12%
23%
32%
32%
34%
29%
40%
37%
45%
6%
17%
25%
38%
41%
37%
13%
4%
10%
2%
12%
4%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Revenue
EBIT
Plant and Equipment
Advanced Research
IT
SG&A
Talent and Training
>30% Increase 21-30% Increase 11-20% Increase 6-10% Increase 1-5% Increase No Change1-5% Decrease 6-10% Decrease 11-20% Decrease 21-30% Decrease >30% Decrease
49% of respondents are increasing budget compared to 68% in 2014, 66% in 2013, 74% in 2012
71% of respondents are increasing budget compared to 84% in 2014, 80% in 2013, 92% in 2012
87% of respondents are increasing budget compared to 93% in 2014, 88% in 2013, 97% in 2012
No. of Responses = 91-95
72%
60%
56%
82%
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.15
For your next fiscal year, what is your budgeted percentage change in each of the following financial metrics (compared to current year budget)? (continued)
Comments Driven by OEMs. New product rollout. Training and apprenticeships efforts dramatically increasing. 2016 appears to be similar to 2015 for us. That may be optimistic. Revenue increase due to sales strength. Building new plants and increasing R&D investments. Key focus on research and enhancing our IT tools/systems to align to changing business complexities. We are establishing offsite training center to increase the talent pool in Michigan. 2016 we are in between programs. We will be preparing for 2017. Because of our current condition we need to concentrate in improving our profitability. Continue to fill/maximize open capacity with no other changes to assets/labor. Also working to increase
favorability of our customer mix. Plan to increase revenue and EBIT faster than other supporting costs, as have increased such costs in
2015 to support upcoming growth in 2016. New ERP and project management IT. New training programs. Expansion of some manufacturing sites. Spend more money on improving our current employee skills. We see 2016 as a carryover of 2015. We anticipate more new launches in 2017. Capital investments made in plant and equipment. Rest of business running in-line to plan. Estimated as we have not budgeted for 2016 yet. The market is so unstable it is premature to define 2016.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.16
To better understand inflation, assuming constant 2015 production volumes for 2016, what is your budgeted percentage change in USD from 2015 in each of the following metrics for 2016?
8%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
10%
19%
17%
11%
15%
9%
10%
49%
26%
34%
37%
23%
31%
24%
30%
32%
32%
32%
40%
35%
25%
5%
3%
6%
13%
7%
3%3%
8%
4%
2%
4%
13%
35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Utilities
Customer specific product development
Transportation/Logistics
Purchased components
Tooling
Direct material inflation-Metalics
Direct material inflation-Resins
>6% Increase 5-6% Increase 3-4% Increase 1-2% IncreaseNo Change 1-2% Decrease 3-4% Decrease 5-6% Decrease>6% Decrease Not applicable
Percent of respondents
No. of Responses = 90-93 OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.17
To better understand inflation, assuming constant 2015 production volumes for 2016, what is your budgeted percentage change in USD from 2015 in each of the following metrics for 2016? (continued)
Comments Commodities with higher increases. With growth we have volume pricing on core materials that will help in 2016. Steel prices separating from historical metrics. Why costs decline and price rises is a total mystery. Insourcing tooling. We are taking a conservative approach on raw material, transportation and utilities. We believe that there
is more upside potential on a calendar year basis year-over-year. China weakening demand is causing commodity prices to drop. Europe is next up to weaken its currency
in the QE global dance. We think the economy in Mexico will not have drastic changes. Company is not impacted by most cost elements, given the industry we are in. However, we expect some
impact of plastics cost on packaging materials cost and also in transportation and utilities. Purchased components for our company reflect primarily other raw materials purchases including base oils.
Because of the dollar strength against other currencies, our overall direct metallic costs are expected to continue to decrease.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.18
Within North America, over the next 5 years, how is your total value add (vertical integration) expected to change?
Will increase
6771%
Will stay the
same23
24%
Will decrease
55%
No. of Responses = 95
“Will increase” comments: Becoming less diversified in product so we are the best at what we do. Starting a new product line has required partners. We will look to bring some
processes back in house once cash flow allows. Increase value add assembly content. Driven by supplier consolidation. We are going to try to move some purchased material from mandated to
managed. Integrating secondary operations such as heat treat and final machining. Two new foundries to vertically integrate the production process. Expanding resources domestically to manage global supply base. Increase
imports from China and India. We are planning more original content by adding proprietary intellectual value. As part of our strategy to grow we are integrating our processes to have more
value added and better serve our customers, having at the same time better margins.
Seeking to bring sub- and secondary operations in-house through organic expansion and acquisition.
We will continue to vertically integrate through increased use of automation. Plan to increase the percentage of sales related to in-house manufactured
products, thereby increasing our value add within our supply chain to our customers.
Vertical integration will be our focus as well as localization of components. We get continued requests for small niche products through a single-stop shop. Insourcing stampings and plastics. Possibly insource component manufacturing. Light assembly work being insourced.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.19
Within North America, over the next 5 years, how is your total value add (vertical integration) expected to change? (continued)
“Will stay the same” comments: We do not see much change at all in what we produce today. This will only change if there is a dramatic drop in
volumes. We would then look to fill any open capacity in our facilities. Fill capacity, outsource unless new capital can be fully or near fully utilized. We are already highly vertically integrated and see that as an advantage for our business.
“Will decrease” comments: Car companies buy on price so we are outsourcing more of our traditional operations done in North America. Our EBIT to
Beginning Invested Capital is increasing.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.20
Estimate the percent of your company sales mix in 2015/2016.Estimate the percent of your company sales mix in 2020/2021.
2008/2009Average Mix
2013/2014Average Mix
35% 31% 37% 34% 36% 35%
10% 14%
17% 17%27% 29% 22% 25%
21% 21% 23% 21%25% 21%
17% 19% 18% 20%12% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Detroit Three OEM EU-Parented OEM Asian-Parented OEMForeign-Parented OEM Automotive Supplier Non-Automotive Related
2010/2011Average Mix
2015/2016Average Mix
From 2009 From 2011 From 2015
2015/2016Average Mix
2020/2021Average Mix
No. of Responses = 90 OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.21
Estimate the percent of your company sales mix in 2015/2016.Estimate the percent of your company sales mix in 2020/2021.(continued)
“2015/2016” comments: FCA and GM are the largest customers. Will be diversifying to J3 OEMs. Light trucks market will continue to growth. Cars will continue to lose market share. We only a small percentage of light vehicle. The majority of our equipment is integrated with a larger system before being sold to the OEMs. We are only focused on commercial vehicles. Our product is used exclusively on Detroit 3 vehicles. Otherwise we are expanding in the performance aftermarket. We are working more openly and easily with Asian and European related companies. Our primary business is replacement/aftermarket. Majority of business is production parts with Detroit 3 OEMs, primarily Ford. Our focus is diversification adding additional automotive suppliers and non-automotive related customers. Chrysler was put as part of Detroit 3 OEMs; Fiat was included in European-parented OEMs. Balance is aftermarket.
“2020/2021” comments: Increases with Asian OEMs. Continue J3 diversification efforts. EU OEMs will continue to struggle to penetrate US production market. Focus and growth expected in markets outside of automotive. Moving to Tier1. Hoping to move from Tier1 into Tier2/3 on select items. Anticipate increased diversification of customers, including slight growth in sales to Tier1 suppliers and non-automotive
customers. Increased business with Asian-parented OEMs primarily due to increased presence in Asia. Growth of new product direct to OEM, high revenue product. Growing profitability operating outside of the OEMs (unsustainable profitability solely operating inside OEMs). Current strategies point to this mix being attainable.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.22
Days Sales Outstanding
2015 2014 2013Upper
Quartile Value
MedianValue
Lower Quartile Value
Upper Quartile Value
MedianValue
Lower Quartile Value
Upper Quartile Value
MedianValue
Lower Quartile Value
57 48 45 60 50 45 59 50 45
No. of Responses = 72
2015 2014 2013
Increased Stayed Same Decreased Increased Stayed
Same Decreased Increased Stayed Same Decreased
19 44 7 21 46 7 16 53 11
On average, over the past 12 months, has this DSO number increased, stayed the same or decreased? (number of responses)
Considering the last 12 months, for your U.S. customers representing the top 80% of your business (by dollar volume), what is the average number of your Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)?
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.23
Days Payable Outstanding
2015 2014 2013Upper
Quartile Value
MedianValue
Lower Quartile Value
Upper Quartile Value
MedianValue
Lower Quartile Value
Upper Quartile Value
MedianValue
Lower Quartile Value
60 45 37 55 45 35 55 45 40
No. of Responses = 74
2015 2014 2013
Increased Stayed Same Decreased Increased Stayed
Same Decreased Increased Stayed Same Decreased
13 58 2 9 60 5 13 64 3
On average, over the past 12 months, has this DPO number increased, stayed the same or decreased? (number of responses)
For your U.S. suppliers representing the top 80% of your purchased material (by dollar volume), what is the average number of your Days
Payable Outstanding (DPO)?
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.24
DSO and DPO (continued)
Comments We actively manage cash metrics to ensure an adequate spread exists between DSO and DPO. We
have gained supplier cooperation to this end. Auto customers like to pay late, suppliers demand timely payment creating an uncomfortable bank-
effect. Want to lower costs? Pay bills in a timely manner. No changes. One of our larger customers has early payment discount and always takes advantage of it. This keeps
DSO down. Typical payment terms balanced, sometimes DPO stretches or trends a bit farther than DSO. A major bankruptcy of one of our Tier1 customers hurt our collections. Primary customer terms are N45 payment (AR), while typical AP terms are N30, and we typically pay a
couple days early on average due to AP process. New customers are pushing for extended terms. We have some success pushing back. Current
customers have maintained terms.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.25
Over the next 12 months, what is the likelihood that your company will make acquisitions and/or divestitures?
18%13%
10%8%
4%
2%9%
37%45%
48%34%
4%9%
9%9%
46%42%42%
58%
91%91%89%
82%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Acquisitions2015201420132012
Divestitures2015201420132012
High Likelihood Moderate Likelihood Unlikely
No. of Responses = 90
Percent of respondents
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.26
Over the next 12 months, what is the likelihood that your company will make acquisitions and/or divestitures?
Percent of respondents Percent of respondentsAcquisitions Divestitures
21%11%
21%
10%12%
17%
9%
8%12%
26%53%
41%
50%35%
49%
42%36%
62%
54%37%38%
40%54%
34%
48%56%
26%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2015$150 million or less
$151-$500 millionMore than $500 million
2014$150 million or less
$151-$500 millionMore than $500 million
2013$150 million or less
$151-$500 millionMore than $500 million
High LikelihoodModest LikelihoodUnlikely
5%7%
3%
3%
3%5%
7%
7%4%15%
6%4%
15%
97%89%86%
93%96%
85%
91%96%
82%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2015$150 million or less
$151-$500 millionMore than $500 million
2014$150 million or less
$151-$500 millionMore than $500 million
2013$150 million or less
$151-$500 millionMore than $500 million
High LikelihoodModest LikelihoodUnlikely
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.27
Rate each of the following strategies in terms of priority for acquisitions.
Percent of respondents
21%
13%
13%
6%
8%
4%
6%
16%
24%
16%
16%
12%
7%
11%
21%
19%
22%
18%
10%
11%
5%
5%
9%
11%
12%
16%
5%
5%
14%
9%
8%
11%
17%
16%
6%
2%
8%
4%
8%
8%
11%
8%
6%
6%
4%
6%
8%
8%
9%
9%
4%
7%
7%
8%
16%
15%
6%
8%
15%
16%
12%
22%
35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Accelerating access to newtechnologies
Accessing new customers throughexpansion into new geo. markets
Building market share
Following an existing customer intonew geographic markets
Vertically integrating your supplychain or product offering
Diversifying into transportationmarkets outside of light vehicles
Diversifying into markets outside ofall transportation
Highest Priority = 1 Rating = 2 Rating = 3 Rating = 4 Neutral = 5Rating = 6 Rating = 7 Rating = 8 Lowest Priority = 9
No. of Responses = 85-86
Note: 34 survey respondents indicated they are not planning for acquisitions over the next 12 months.
Rating
3.86
3.94
4.36
4.87
4.91
6.05
6.45
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.28
Please elaborate on the various trends and drivers in general that are impacting the automotive supplier M&A activity.
North America: Migration into southern USA or to Mexico.Europe: European exchange rate.Asia: Expansion in Asia. Slow down in China.Globalization-General Looking to diversify geographically, The need to be more diverse and large enough to support our customers' global needs. Globalization. With OEMs sourcing more and more on a global basis, the automotive supply base is leaning towards
M&A to obtain that footprint.Technologies: Light-weighting focus. Weight reduction, mass to engage in highly engineered proprietary technology. Processes.Financial: Capital costs. Valuations too high! Further emphasis on economies of scale and/or improved vertical integration via acquisition, to improve
cost position for the acquiring firm. Strong balance sheets.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.29
Please elaborate on the various trends and drivers in general that are impacting the automotive supplier M&A activity. (continued)
Markets/Customers: Markets served. (2 responses) New customer expansion. Customer driven needs and wants. Reduced platforms. Increased presence of C3 OEMs in the US market.Consolidation-General Consolidation of large automotive suppliers are requiring us to renegotiate existing agreements. Consolidation of the supply base seems to be the driving force. Significant roll-up of suppliers of all sizes. Feel a need to become significantly larger, or we will become
rolled up by someone else as the industry's supply base shrinks. This is lead by changes in technology and part consolidation / integration.
Valuations high for those who want to sell. markets strong for those who want to continue consolidationOther: Expand for security. There are no specific trends driving the acquisitions. We are always searching for opportunities that will
allow us to grow profitability in our core business groups. Desire for growth in a flattening production environment. Not interested in exposing more to OEM cycle. We will need more engineering resources to support our growth. Diversification. Higher value added electronic content. Success of mega-Tier1s, deconstruction of integrated systems by OEMs and re-sourcing as
components with third-party assemblers.OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.30
What is the most significant short-term (12 months) challenge or issue that your company faces internally in reaching its overall 2015/2016 business plan?
Human Resources (41 responses in 2015, 29 responses in 2014) Human resources - 8 Acquiring talent – 7 Proper training - 6 Employee retention – 6 Skilled trades - 4 Engineering resources- 3 Succession planning/talent management - 3 Skilled assembly workers - 2 Targeted hiring Labor productivity
Margin Protection (12 responses in 2015, 4 responses in 2014) Improve EBIT- 3 Containing costs - 3 LEAN manufacturing implementation - need
for lower costs (productivity) - 3 Product development New cost benefit analysis to reduce costs Increasing margins
Capital Planning (8 responses in 2015, 6 responses in 2014) Capital for growth - 4 Working capital ROCE Cash flow during growth Capital controls
Launch Capabilities (7 responses in 2015, 6 responses in 2014) Launch success - 6 Meeting SOP production volumes consistently
Operations/Processes (4 responses in 2015, 8 responses in 2014) New facilities - 3 Operational improvement
Production Capacity (4 responses in 2015, 10 responses in 2014) Capacity constraints - 2 Open capacity Meeting capacity
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.31
What is the most significant short-term (12 months) challenge or issue that your company faces internally in reaching its overall 2015/2016 business plan?Managing Growth (3 responses in 2015, 9 responses in 2014) Executing the sales and marketing plan Longer-term growth plan for business
increase Supporting rapid global growth
Other (7 responses in 2015, 6 responses in 2014) Integrating new technologies into our
existing business - 2 Infrastructure support - shared services - 2 Deployment of new IT/ERP systems Discipline to procedures for quality Narrow product breadth
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.32
What is the most significant short-term (12 months) challenge or issue that your company faces externally in reaching its overall 2015/2016 business plan?
Pricing/Competition (17 responses in 2015, 10 responses in 2014) Pricing pressures – 7 Cost competitiveness - 4 Competition - 2 Adjusting customer give back expectations Increased productivity requirements Foreign competition pricing Competitive threats due to shifts in focus or
level of vertical integration
Economy (14 responses in 2015, 4 responses in 2014) Market volumes - 7 Economy - 4 Currency exchange rate risk - 3
Managing Business/Growth (11 responses in 2015, 8 responses in 2014) New product launch - 2 Increasing competition capacity Adaptability to new product manufacturing
locations Choice of markets to expand into
Managing Business/Growth (continued) Growing revenue and entry into light vehicle
market Mergers Vertical integration Improve market share Maintaining performance New product quality
Global Markets (10 responses in 2015, 10 responses in 2014)New competition - 4Uncertainly in global markets - 2Start-up in ChinaVenezuela and BrazilEU and China economic situationNew competitors coming to the USA and Mexico
Customer Management (10 responses in 2015, 14 responses in 2014) Increasing breadth of products sold to existing
customers - 2OEM terms
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.33
What is the most significant short-term (12 months) challenge or issue that your company faces externally in reaching its overall 2015/2016 business plan?
Customer Management (continued)Customer buy-inNew customersProgram launch delaysUnannounced shut-downsCustomer commitmentBreaking into more of the Asian and European
transplantsOpen new opportunities with current customers
Forecasting/Capacity Planning (5 responses in 2015, 16 responses in 2014)Customer scheduling capability - 2Forecast accuracyCapacityAll customers pulling over capacity
Raw Material Markets (3 responses in 2015, 5 responses in 2014) Purchase price variance Raw material volatility Stable commodity prices
Other (9 responses in 2015, 10 responses in 2014)Finding talent - 3Availability of skilled technical resources in the
marketplaceRecruitment engineeringRetaining current employees / hiring talented
peopleVISA issuesCreating stronger brand imageEngaging new technologies
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.34
What is the most significant long-term challenge or issue that your company faces internally in reaching its overall 2-5 year business plan?Human Resources (22 responses in 2015, 20 responses in 2014) Training - 4 Talent acquisition - 3 Employee retention -3 Competitive wage rate versus foreign
competition Human resources Health benefits Skilled trades / engineering Mechatronics engineers Succession planning for key executives Executive turn over Skilled resources Employees Global management HR needs Engineering and quality planning Talent
Maintaining Profit Margins/Growth (13 responses in 2015, 19 responses in 2014) Executing the sales and marketing plan Sales growth Controlled growth
Maintaining Profit Margins/Growth (continued) Properly timing growth Manage successfully the growth Expansion Adding enough resources to support growth
plans Operating performance Become a medium-sized company Retaining the corporate culture during growth Achieving proactive, profitable growth and
diversification strategy Integration of major acquisition Size/scale
Capacity/Footprint/Capital Planning (12 responses in 2015, 20 responses in 2014) Open capacity New facilities - 2 Facility in Mexico Expansion Handling several major expansion projects in
different regions The next cycle
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.35
What is the most significant long-term challenge or issue that your company faces internally in reaching its overall 2-5 year business plan?
Capacity/Footprint/Capital Planning (continued) Growth into new geographic regions Capacity, capital equipment Global footprint development Capital expenditure and R&D investment versus
dividends for shareholders Raising capital
Cost Containment/Productivity (11 responses in 2015, 6 responses in 2014) Improve operating OEE Operational improvements Productivity improvement Increasing productivity Maintain internal costs Reducing costs Driving down costs to meet market demands Consolidate our operation Manufacturing flexibility Maintaining productivity levels and fixed cost Instilling LEAN culture through out the
organization
Products/Technology(11 responses in 2015, not a category in 2014) Product development - 3 Innovation - 2 Technology Finding and developing new technologies Launching new products Successfully carrying out numerous launches of
new products R&D Competitive and niche offerings to maintain/win
OEM business
Other (8 responses in 2015, 9 responses in 2014) Infrastructure support - shared services Identifying M&A Getting a share of the investment dollars Consolidate the strategy of the group Prioritization and focus Ownership transition to another generation of
family members IT support Global structure
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.36
What is the most significant long-term challenge or issue that your company faces externally in reaching its overall 2-5 year business plan?Globalization/Competition (21 responses in 2015, 20 responses in 2014) Increased competition - 5 Asian competition - 2 Global competition - 2 Industry consolidation Growth opportunities in China and Europe Competition with private equity mentality
(grow share at expense of profit) New competitors coming to the USA and
Mex Possible consolidation among big players Competitive threats to current or future
business based on price competition in select segments
Cost competitive design OEM is shrinking supply base Global expansion Expanding global footprint Geographic shift of current customers Market share growth amongst larger players
Market Demand (18 responses in 2015, 14 responses in 2014) Expanding into new markets Managing business in the emerging markets Acquisitions and market growth Growth in Mexico and Asia Whether central Mexico achieves what
everyone is projecting Creating demand Gaining acceptance in new markets External market change Breaking into the performance aftermarket Finding new customers outside of
automotive Establishing worldwide marketing efforts
from a US based manufacturing location Successful penetration of A/P markets Market penetration Market fluctuations Market slow downs Uncertainty in global markets Keeping up with technology Engaging new technologies
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.37
What is the most significant long-term challenge or issue that your company faces externally in reaching its overall 2-5 year business plan?
Customer Management (9 responses in 2015, 5 responses in 2014) Long-term agreements Commodity pricing as opposed to technology/support
based pricing Firing poor customers Price wars External pricing Shorter customer lead-times to launch new programs Customer pressure to invest Make our customers understand our potential as a
group Stability of demand from the OEMs
Economy (8 responses in 2015, 9 responses in 2014) Economy - 3 Macro economics Fed rate increase and international economy Overall economy staying positive (recession) New home construction, access to financing for
consumers Stable commodity prices and stable economy along
with obtaining new business awards as budgeted
Sales/Profitability (5 responses in 2015, 11 responses in 2014) Maintaining volumes Developing contacts Growing revenue Customer diversification Finding new customers
Other (9 responses in 2015, 11 responses in 2014) Safety regulations in EU and Asia US trade agreements with EU and Asia Retaining current employees/hiring
talented people Regulations Develop an strategic alliance Hiring Successful launch of new programs Product integration Body material changes
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.38
Thank you for your participation
The OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer survey is published every other month. The next survey will be launched on Monday, September 14, 2015 and will be released Friday, September 18, 2015.
For media questions For content questionsand comments, contact: and comments, contact:Dave Andrea Kathy ReissSenior Vice President DirectorIndustry Analysis and Economics Research and Industry Analysis248.952.6401 ext 228 248.952.6401 ext [email protected] [email protected]
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Please note: The information and opinions contained in this report are for general information purposes. Comments are edited only for spelling and may contain grammatical errors due to their verbatim nature. Responses to this survey are confidential. Therefore, only aggregated results will be reported and individual responses will not be released or shared. These results that have been reviewed and approved by outside counsel.
Antitrust Statement: This survey content is exclusively about historical data, and respondents/participants should not contact each other to discuss responses, or to discuss the issues dealt with in the survey. It is an absolute imperative to consult legal counsel about any contacts with competitors. All pricing decisions and negotiating strategies should be handled on an individual company basis.
OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer- July 2015Published with the support of Deloitte LLP.39