Proposal of ASPAQ(Asian Science Panel on Air Pollution) 

Japanese Research Team on  Atmospheric Management

Presented by:Hajime AkimotoAsia Center for Air Pollution Research

S‐7‐3/IGES Side Event at BAQ2012, Hong Kong, 2012.12.6

ERTDF S‐7 Project  (FY2009‐2013): Scientific Analysis of Regional Air Pollution and

Promotion of Air Pollution Management in East Asia Considering Co‐benefits

(Project Leader: H. Akimoto)

Theme 3: Research on Possible Regional Framework To Strengthen Atmospheric Management

and the Science‐Policy Interface(Theme Leader: K. Suzuki)

The proposal was made by:Research Team on  Atmospheric Management

(not by Governmental )    

Background 

Why Air Pollution in (East) Asia now?

Emissions of air pollutants in Asia have exceeded those of Europe and North America after the year of 2000.

Even emissions in East Asia (Northeast and Southeast Asia) alone is comparable to Europe and North America as of 2005.

This situation prompted us to concern with the Asian air pollution locally, regionally, hemispherically and globally.

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Recent NOx Emission Trends by Continent  

Akimoto, Science 2003 HTAP Report 2010

2005

High Emissions of Air Pollutants in East Asia Causes Many Aspects of Environmental Problems

Different Aspects of Air Pollutants

Air Toxicants:

Photochemical oxidants (O3), Particulate matter (PM2.5)

Biogeochemically Active Species:

Acidic and nitrogeneous species

Radiatively Active Species (Short-Lived Climate Pollutants):

Black carbon, Tropospheric ozone (CH4, NOx, VOC)

We concerns:

Bad air quality and health problems in megacities

Transbounday air pollution by O3 and PM2.5

Air pollution/climate interaction and SLCP co-benefit approach

Proposal of ASPAQ

Aims

To establish an epistemic community of Asian scientists;

To reach a common understanding among scientists and policy makers;

To develop an international initiative for an integrated

approach to air pollution and climate change reflecting

the views of Asian scientists.

However, we don’t have any international convention like CLRTAP, and don’t have any framework of scientific discussion (in both natural and policy science) on these issues.

Needs for Integration of Asian scientists Viewon hemispherical or global issues treated by 

TF‐HTAP and CCAC (Climate and Clean Air Coalition)

For example in CCAC:

Which should be controlled for O3 reduction, NOx/VOC or CH4? 

Situation is different between Asia and Europe/North AmericaUNEP Report and CCAC:  Solely CH4 Control

Asian policy:     NOx/VOC Control should be prioritized.

Because NOx/VOC control is more effective to reduce very high concentration of regional ozone in East Asia. 

In contrast, CH4 control is effective for reducing global ozone.

1996 - 2002

A. Richter et al., Nature, 2005

Changes of Tropospheric Column of NO2 Observed by Satellite (GOME)

Europe and US has already reduced NOx but not in East Asia! 

Evaluation of Observed O3 in terms of USEPA‐AQS 2008

Ox<=25: 0, 0%

25<Ox<=50: 0, 0%

50<Ox<=75: 241, 22.4%

75<Ox<=100: 701, 65.2%

100<Ox: 133, 12.4%

25<O3<=50: 050<O3<=75: 241 (22 %)75<O3<=100: 701(65 %)

100<O3: 133 (12%)

More than 75% of the sites in Japan exceed USEPA AQS 2008

Northeast Asia including Japan is the highest O3 concentration region in the world

Annual 4th

value of 3 year average 2005-2007

Serious Surface Ozone Pollution in Japan as Compared to US and Europe

Should not exceed 75 ppb in 8 hour average

Simulated Ozone Pollution in East Asia

East Asia is the highest ozone pollution area in the world.Considering economic cost of premature deaths due to O3 and PM2.5, co‐benefit approach by controlling NOx and VOC together with CO2 may have  high incentive in East Asia.

10Nagashima et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. (2011)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

年

NOx (M

t)

REASREAS_PSCREAS_REFREAS_PFCZhang et al. (2007,2009)Hao et al. (2002), Tian et al. (2005)GAINSBaseline+ACT

Low carbon

● REAS◆ Zhang et al. (2007, 2009)▲ Hao et al. (2002), Tian et al. (2005)■ GAINS

PFC

PSC

REF

BASE

BASE+ACT

LC

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Past and Future Emission of NOx in China（1980～2020）

Ohara, 2010

Co‐benefit approach may reduce the emission of O3 precursors in 2020‐2030.

Possible Contents of ASPAQ (1)

While the concept of ASPAQ is still in the infant stage, the preliminary research identified several important issues to be considered/discussed: 

(i) Plausible major functions of ASPAQ Synthesis of newly emerging scientific findings for consensus 

building among scientists (and policy makers) The scope of targeted area or research?

Atmospheric scienceImpact studiesShort‐term/long‐term mitigation measures

Not only the review of existing research, but also including enhanced research collaboration and joint research activity?

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Possible Contents of ASPAQ  (2)Geographical scope

Asia as a whole  East Asia any other geographical scope

Creation of a new body?  Reform of an existing body? Existing frameworks may include:  Joint Forum on Atmospheric 

Environment in Asia and the Pacific, EANET, Malé Declaration, Asian Co‐benefits Partnership (ACP), CAI‐Asia, NEASPEC, LTP, Any others?

Organizational structure of ASPAQ, including the secretariatPossible funding sources

National contributions international funding use of existing funding mechanisms such as climate funding? 

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Thank you for your attention!