of ukraine

Energy Resources Availability and Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine till 2100

Leonid Benkovskyi – National Nuclear Energy Generating Company

(NNEGC) “ENERGOATOM”

Наименование мероприятия и докладчик

1

Nuclear power plants There are 4 NPPs in operation in Ukraine, namely:

Zaporizhzhya NPP

Rivne NPP

Khmelnitsky NPP

South-Ukraine NPP

Ukrainian NPPs in operation

Rivne NPP

Khmelnitsky NPP

South Ukraine NPP

Zaporizhzhya NPP

Head office of NNEGC “ENERGOATOM”

Legend: Type of reactors

WWER-1000 WWER-440

KYIV

National Nuclear Energy Generating Company “Energoatom”

3

The State Enterprise

“National Nuclear

Energy Generating

Company ‘Energoatom”

was established in 1996

NNEGC “Energoatom”

comprises all Ukrainian

NPPs in operation

Рівненська АЕС

Rivne NPP

РІВНЕ

RIVNE Хмельницька АЕС

Khmelnitsky NPP

Южно-Українська АЕС

South Ukraine NPP Запорізька АЕС

Zaporizhzhya NPP

Дирекція НАЕК “ЕНЕРГОАТОМ”

Head office of NNEGC “ENERGOATOM”

Умовні позначки

Legend:

Типи реакторів

Type of reactors

ВВЕР-1000

WWER-1000

ВВЕР-440

WWER-440

ХМЕЛЬНИЦЬКИЙ

KHMELNITSKY

МИКОЛАЇВ

MYKOLAYIV

ЗАПОРІЖЖЯ

ZAPORIZHZHYA

КИЇВ

KYIV

NNEGC “Energoatom” is entrusted with functions of an Operating Organization responsible for safety of all operating NPPs of Ukraine

Electricity Generation in Ukraine Installed Capacities

HPP and other 12,2%

NPP 43,1%

TPP 44,7%

NPP 44,4%

TPP 40,3%

HPP and other 15,3%

Supply to SE “Energorynok” of Ukraine

HPP and other 10,5%

NPP 26,0%

TPP 63,5%

SE “NNEGC “Energoatom” in the energy system of Ukraine (for 2013)

4

• There are uranium deposits and mining capacities in Ukraine. The extracted uranium is used for fuel fabrication for the Ukrainian NPPs. The local uranium covers about 30% of nuclear fuel demand for Ukrainian NPPs (about 800 t per year).

• A decision was made to build a nuclear fuel fabrication plant. Its commissioning is scheduled in two stages. First stage in 2012-2015 and the second one – in 2016-2020. Design capacity of the plant will make up 800 fuel assemblies per year.

(FRONT END) Current status of nuclear power program in Ukraine

• Spent nuclear fuel of Rivne NPP, South-Ukraine NPP and Khmelnitska NPP is sent for reprocessing to Russian Federation.

• Spent nuclear fuel of Zaporizhzhya NPP is being stored in dry SNF storage facility at the site of Zaporizhzhya NPP.

Current status of nuclear power program in Ukraine (BACK END)

• A centralized SNF storage facility for spent nuclear fuel of VVER type reactors is under construction in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. The commissioning of CSNFSF is scheduled in 2015. (A resolution # 131-r dated 4.02.09 approved the feasibility study on investments and in 2012 a Law on nuclear installation siting and (construction) deployment was adopted). The design capacity of the CSNFSF is 16529 spent nuclear fuel assemblies, including 12010 spent nuclear fuel assemblies of VVER-1000 and 4519 spent nuclear fuel assemblies of VVER-440).

• Waste management. Waste treatment (evaporation of liquid radwaste, sorting and compaction of solid radwaste) is performed on-site. Facilities on deep reprocessing of radwaste is under deployment. In future radwaste may be transported to the enterprise “Vector” which is specialized in waste management.

Current status of nuclear power program in Ukraine (BACK END cont’d)

Forecast of Power Consumption in Ukraine

Forecast of Power Consumption in Ukraine

Subject to extensive use of non-conventional and renewable energy sources (NCRES) capacity the highest development rates could be observed in systems based on wind and solar energy.

The difference in electricity consumption rate with using for the options considered till 2100 makes up less than 1 % and is insignificant when building forecast for long-term period.

ОП НТЦ 10

Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine till 2100

Demand/consumption energy structure of Ukraine

Ukraine energy structure is based on HydroPP, NPP and TPP. Among the

prevailing ones are NPP and TPP.

Ukraine has the excessive energy generation power.

The current structure of generation is not to change till 2020.

Ukraine has different types of natural resources covering 10-20% of self demand.

The most resource-consuming branches are metallurgy and chemical industry

accounting for 80%.

Производство электроэнергии, млрд кВт ч

11.5

6%

91.2

47%

89.8

47% ГЭС

Тепловые

Атомные

ОП НТЦ 11


Natural Resources of Ukraine

Certain Prognostics Annual demand

Coil

mill. ton 56 700 117 500 64

mill.ton.eq.fuel 42 560 88 130 48

Oil mill. ton 117 725 10

mill.ton.eq.fuel 174 1081 14

Gas bill.м3 1200 5400 21,02

mill.ton.eq.fuel 1457 6559 24

Uranium thousand. tU 274 500 2,4

mill.ton.eq.fuel(for 235U)

5 350 9 800 47

ОП НТЦ 12

Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine till 2100 Natural Resources of Ukraine. Uranium

Ukraine uranium reserves are estimated to be

500 thousand ton.

Till 2015 – 30% of own consumption

After 2015 to 2030 – 100%.

30% of annual consumption for 15 units is

800 ton.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

2030

Годы

Про

изво

дств

о ко

нцен

трат

а пр

ирод

ного

ура

на, т

ыс.

тонн

н

Потребности в концентрате природного урана

Проектные показатели производства уранового концентрата

ОП НТЦ 13

Most mines have been operated for more then 40 years.

Structure of coal demand:

- Energy generation – 46%;

- Metal industry – 29%;

- Heating – 3%;

- Other – 20%.

According to different assessments, coal resources are estimated to be depleted in 400 years.

Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine to 2100

Natural Resources of Ukraine. The coal

ОП НТЦ 14

Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine to 2100 Natural Resources of Ukraine. Gas and Oil

Oil

The oil consumption in Ukraine is 9.82 mill.ton.

Ukraine has 149 oil deposits. The industrial oil reserves are 117 mill. ton.

The projected reserves are estimated to be 725 mill. ton – 40 years.

Gas

The potential resource of Ukraine is 5.4 billion cubic meters, the industrial resource – 1.2 billion cubic meters. But most gas deposits are exhausted.

Ukraine has the state-owned gas stocks (11 storage facilities). But expensive cost and extraction dynamics do not open wide and promising prospects for their use in Ukraine.

Hydro

The large river hydro resources are exhausted.

Total capacity – 4.5 GW

ОП НТЦ 15

Oil Gas

Ukraine does not cover its own demand for oil and gas


Natural Resources of Ukraine. Gas and Oil

NFC options

• Once-through NFC with LWR • Once-through NFC with ALWR • Once-through NFC with LWR and HWR on natural

uranium • Once-through NFC with LWR and HWR on low

enriched uranium (1,2%) • Partially closed NFC with LWR and HWR on

regenerated uranium • Closed NFC with LWR and FR(BR=0.98) • Closed NFC with LWR and FR(BR=1.2)

Once-through NFC with LWR Once-through NFC with HWR on natural uranium and LWR

Once-through NFC with HWR on low enriched uranium and LWR

Once-through NFC with HWR on regenerated uranium and LWR on MOX-fuel

NFC assessment as per methodology (1)

NFC assessment as per methodology(2)

Closed NFC with light water and fast reactors

19

Input data (1) ENERGY RESOURCES

19

Coal Gas Uranium [1]

Reserves 117,4 bln. t

(projected),

56,7 bln. t

(balance)

5,4 trln. m3

(projected reserves),

1,2 trln. m3

(industrial reserves)

105 000 t

(up to 130 USD/kgU)

119 000 t

(up to 260 USD/kgU)

Mining 60000 t/yr 20000 mln m3 / year

Price 100 $/tonn Import - 400 $ per

1000 m3

105 000 t

(up to 130 USD/kgU)

119 000 t

(up to 260 USD/kgU)

[1] Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand ("Red Book")

20

Input data (2) Technology parameters

Technical and economic parameters of generating technologies used in MESSAGE

Title of parameter Coal-fired

plants

Gas-fired

plants

WPP

wind

HPP

hydro

SPP

solar

NPP (LWR)*

Load factor 0,55 0,32 0,26 0,56 0,15 0,85

Efficiency 0,343 0,57 0,33

Lifetime, years 40 30 25 80 15 45 – existing,

60 – new

Unit output, MW 420 480 50 500 50 1000

Construction period, years [33] 4 2 1 10 1 6

Investments, USD/kW(e) 1600 1300 1900 2200 5000 3600

Fixed costs, USD/kW 56,6 20,3 30,9 13,63 17 69,3

Variable costs, USD/MW×h 4,46 14,7 2,43 0,48

CO2, t/MW×h 0,9 0,33

CO2, tax, USD/tons **** 0,025 0,025

Fuel cost 100

USD/t

400

USD/1000 m3

***

Installed capacity, MW 35000 0** 83,95 5100 13800

* Reactors of other type may have different characteristics.

** At present, these capacities are unavailable, though MESSAGE may use them in the projected period.

*** The cost of uranium and relevant services is used for NPP in the model.

**** Tax Code of Ukraine, Article 243.

21

Input data for NFC modelling (1)

Cost of uranium conversion and enrichment, FA fabrication

Stage Unit Cost, USD/kg

Conversion USD/kg 15

Enrichment USD/SWU 155

FA fabrication:

Light-water reactor, UOX-fuel USD/kg 300

MOX-fuel USD/kg 2300

Fast reactor (core), MOX-fuel USD/kg 2300

Fast reactor (blanket), natural uranium and tailings USD/kg 300

Fast reactor (blanket), reprocessed uranium USD/kg 1000

CANDU (natural uranium) USD/kg 120

CANDU (low enriched uranium 1,2 %) USD/kg 175

CANDU (reprocessed uranium) USD/kg 200

SNF reprocessing USD/kg 2000

22

Input data for NFC modelling(2)

Reactor technologies (1)

Parameter LWR

VVER

ALWR CANDU 6

(0,711)

CANDU

(1,2)

BN-800

FR(0.98)

JSFR

Capital costs, USD/kW 3600 3600 3000 3000 LWR+25% LWR+25%

Fixed costs, USD/MW 69,3 69,3 55 55 69,3 69,3

Variable costs, USD/MW*h 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50

Thermal power, MW 3030 4410 2064 2064 2100 3570

Output, MW(e) 1000 1500 728 728 870 1500

Efficiency 0,33 0,34014 0,35 0,35 0,4143 0,42017

Load factor, % 80 90 90 80 85

Time factor 0,85

In-house loads 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,1

Construction period, years 6 6 5 5 7 7

Lifetime, years 45, 60 60 30 30 60 60

23

Input data for NFC modelling(3)


Parameter LWR

VVER

ALWR CANDU 6

(0,711)

CANDU

(1,2)

CANDU

(ReU)

BN-800

FR(0.98)

JSFR

FR(1.2)

Make-up, tHM 18,25

8

21,462 88 31 52

Core - - - - 9,34 6,53

Axial blanket - - - - 4,06 8,05

Radial blanket - - - - 3,89 6,10

First load, tHM 70,74

2

129,36

0

88 88 88

Core - - - - 12,6 54,46

Axial blanket - - - - 5,5 54.77


Average burnup, GW×d/t 49 60 7,5 22 13

Core - - - - 65,9 151,448

Axial blanket - - - - 4,8 11,828


24

Input data for NFC modelling (4)


Parameter LWR

VVER

ALWR CANDU 6

(0,711)

CANDU

(1,2)

BN-800

FR(0.98)

JSFR

FR(1.2)

Enrichment of make-up fuel, % 4,32 5 0,711 1,2

Core - - - - Pu(21,8) Pu(13,28)

Axial blanket - - - - Deplet. U Deplet. U

Radial blanket - - - - Deplet. U Deplet. U

Depleted uranium , % 0,25 0,25 - 0,25

Comparing NFC options

Share of nuclear generation in the energy mix

Availability of uranium resources

Comparing NFC options

SNF accumulation Accumulation of reprocessing products

27

Conclusions Modeling Results

• 10 – 20% energy generation consumption can be covered by own

hydrocarbon mining;

• The coal reserves are sufficient for more than 400 years. But reserves are

difficult to access and they need substantial investments;

• Thermal power plants – need for new builds;

• The hydro resources are exhausted. Essential growth of hydro energy is

not available till 2100.

• The wind generation is limited by geographic location and have a low

total capacity. Need for stand-by power for compensating generation. The

maximum wind power generation will not be over 10 % till 2100

• Total technical available level of the renewable energy is no more than

16 % for economic aspects;

• The solar energy and other renewable generation will not prevail as

compared with basic conventional generation

Conclusions

• In all NFC options considered natural uranium resources are completely depleted by the end of 21 – beginning of 22 century (using only domestic uranium).

• The significant decrease in nuclear generation falls within 2070s. In case of once-through NFC with light water reactors, including ALWR, nuclear generation stops functioning in 2090-2100.

• Introduction of heavy water reactors running on natural uranium (HWR NU) doesn’t have significant impact on uranium resources owing to low HWRs share. Heavy water reactors on low enriched uranium (HWR 1,2) shift complete depletion of uranium resources by 15-20 years beyond 2100 with significant share in nuclear generation maintained at 50% almost till 2080.

Conclusions

• The partial closure of NFC with heavy water reactors on regenerated uranium (HWR ReU) doesn’t have significant impact on the natural uranium depletion rate in the period till 2080-2090. This is accounted for by the low HWR share, owing to high cost of reprocessing technologies, until the uranium resources are exhausted by light water reactors. However, further use of uranium allows maintaining nuclear power beyond 2100.

Conclusions

• Introduction of fast neutron technologies may start earlier subject to significant rise in price of natural uranium, cheapening of SNF reprocessing technologies and overall cost of fast reactors, as well as in case of SNF storage capacities being limited or the cost of relevant facilities is significantly increased.

• Hence, the most effective use of uranium resources could be observed in INES option with NFC based on heavy water reactors running on low enriched uranium (HWR 1,2%): in this case uranium reserves are due to be depleted beyond 2100. At the same time, this NFC features the highest (among the options considered) amount of SNF (about 52 700 tHM) accumulated by the end of the projected period.

Conclusions

• In both options of closed NFC fast reactors, along with the required infrastructure, start being commissioned after natural uranium resources are depleted. In this case, regardless of natural uranium depletion, nuclear power does not only continue to operate till 2100 but also has development prospects for the next century. The prospects for nuclear power existence and development beyond 21 century (using only domestic reserves) are true only for closed NFC based on fast neutron reactors – both with BR < 1 and BR > 1. Both options of closed NFC have near to the best value of levelized cost of electricity.

32

Thank you for your attention!

of ukraine

Documents