off to a strong start – not surprising and not sustainable

8/8/2019 Off to a strong start not surprising and not sustainable

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

and commentary can be found at http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl

Januar y 4, 2011 Off t o a strong st ar t not sur pr is ing and not sust ainable

QE2 will eventually bring down the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury, but may test my annualvalue level at 3.791 first. My annual risky level is 2.690. Gold begins the year with monthly,

quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $1439.0, $1441.7 and $1452.6. This weeks value levelis $1380.0. Crude oil appears headed for my annual risky levels at $99.91 and $101.92, but aweekly close below my semiannual value level at $87.52 makes this strength tougher toachieve. The euro becomes vulnerable on a weekly close below my quarterly pivot at 1.3227.The Dow begins the year with no nearby longer-term risky levels. My annual pivot at 11,491 hasan 85% chance of being tested numerous times this year, which makes a rally to my annualrisky level at 13,890 a tough call given overvalued fundamentals and overbought technicals.Below 11,491 is my quarterly value level at 11,395. The major equity averages straddle quarterlyvalue levels, pivots and risky levels favoring a reversal-oriented first quarter 11,395 Dow,1162.5 SPX, 2853 NASDAQ, 4671 Transports and 765.50 Russell 2000.

10-Year Note (3.342) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 3.399, 3.714, 3.791 an4.268. Annual, semiannual and monthly risky levels are 2.690, 2.441, 2.322 and 2.150. There is a widrange between value levels and risky levels. Slipping to value levels indicates that QE2 is failing.Rallying to risk levels is a sign of QE2 success.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1414.4) Weekly, annual, semiannual and annual value levels are $1380.0, $1356.5,$1300.6 and $1187.2. A daily pivot is at $1419.8. Monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels are

$1439.0, $1441.7 and $1452.6. Gold needs to breakout above $1452.6 to continue the longer-term parabolic run.


Nymex Crude Oil ($91.61) Weekly, semiannual and monthly value levels are $88.50, $87.52 and

$75.74. A daily pivot is $91.97. Weekly closes above $87.52 targets annual, semiannual and quarterlyrisky levels at $99.91, $101.92, $107.14 and $110.87.



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The Euro (1.3354) Monthly and weekly value levels are 1.2805 and 1.2703 with quarterly and dailypivots at 1.3227 and 1.3365, and semiannual and annual risky levels at 1.4624, 1.4989, 1.6367 and

1.7312.


Daily Dow: (11,671)Annual, quarterly, weekly, semiannual, monthly and semiannual value levels are11,491, 11,395, 11,334, 10,959, 10,427 and 9,449 with a daily pivot at 11,653, and annual risky level a13,890.



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ValuEngine still shows 15 or 16 sectors as overvalued only36.4% of all stocks are undervaluedand readings around 35% are usually followed by a market sell-off.


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Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard Suttmeier

Chief Market StrategistValuEngine.com, (800) 381-5576

Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our products and services visitwww.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues andfind out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

off to a strong start – not surprising and not sustainable

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