offshore wind power - ΔΕΗ · •economy of offshore wind power plants ... erection 815 49...

Offshore wind powerENERTECH2009 Athens Greece

Sten Frandsendr.techn. MSc.

[email protected]

Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark

My talk:

•Status of offshore wind activities

•Economy of offshore wind power plants

•Future planned and possible deployment in the future; major research issues

ENERTECH20092


Entering the post‐fossil age..what are our options?

Well, other renewable technologies will (hopefully) follow, BUT….

...wind energy is presently the only technically and economically readyrenewable candidate for replacement of fossil fuels

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Risø DTU, Technical University of DenmarkRisø DTU, Technical University of Denmark

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

New power capacity additions 1999‐2008(EU‐27, GW)

Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision

Total installed wind energy: 200 GW

NaturalGas50%

Wind

29%

Photo-Voltaic4%

FuelOil4%

Nuclear

3%

Hydro

2%

Biomass

2%

Other

1%

100,0

58,9

8,8 7,0 5,8 3,9 3,4 1,8

Coal

5%

10,4

GW

Wind, best onshore:3-4 c€/kWh

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RenewablesHow much is there to harvest?

REN21 - 2007ENERTECH20095


the windthe wind turbine

A (swept area)

+efficiency

How does the wind turbine make electricity?

THE WIND ENERGY FUEL• The approaching wind is

proportional to the cubed wind speed:

• Thus, doubling of wind speed:

• Good wind is everything…

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The winds, onshore ..and offshore

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Status of offshore wind energy

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The substructure options for offshore wts

Past Future

Shallow water Deep water ENERTECH20099


Offshore potential 2004

From Siegfriedsen et al (2003).From Shaw et al (2002)

European prospects:In terms of capacity20GW – 70GW – 600GW

Rest of world:In terms of energy per ytheoretical - 5 TWy/ypractical - 0.5 TWy/y

World electricityconsumptionper year: approx. 2 TWy

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Already Obsolete!

Potential is

much higher!

10


Two first real demonstration projectsEach approx 160 MW

(km)

Nysted

Horns Rev

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North Sea:Horns Rev ‐monopile

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The Baltics Nysted – gravity foundations

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Horns Rev 2 ‐ September 2009

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200 MW Siemens/DONG


End 2008: 1.5 GW offshore – 8 EU countries

Offshore – current status

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Largest “stock average” offshore wind turbine

•RePower/Talisman 2x5MW at Beatrice oil platform, Scotland•45m water depth, jacket substructure

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Not stock average: floating wind turbine

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Economy etc. of offshore wind power

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Investment cost per MWAverage for the Horns Rev+Nysted DK projects

Component Investments1000 €/MW

Share %

Turbines ex. work, including transport and erection

815 49

Trafo-station and main cable to coast 270 16 Internal grid between turbines 85 5 Foundations 350 21 Design, project management 100 6 Environmental analysis etc. 50 3 Miscellaneous 10 <1 Total 1680 ~100%

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Supply chain – turbine supply (present)

Current market players

Manufacturer Power outputSiemens 3.6 MWVestas 3 MWNordex 2.5 MWRepower 5 and 6 MWBARD Eng. 5 MWMultibrid 5 MW

Source: MAKE Consulting 2009, own elaboration

• Manufacturers are expanding their offshore capacity

• Some have reserved part of their capacity for offshore wind

• Dedicated offshore turbines are entering the market

• Newcomers may enter the market (Acciona, Gamesa, GE)

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Cost of future offshore wind?from WPM etc.

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Future

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Up‐Scaling

Repower

Jos Beurskens

Jos Beurskens

????

2008

Repower

Jos Beurskens

Jos Beurskens

??????

20082008250 m Ø

Wind turbines grown in size– despite fundamental physics

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Substructures – maybe up to a 100m?

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The substructure options for offshore wts

Past Future

Shallow water Deep water ENERTECH200925


Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)

EWEA’s 20 year offshore networkdevelopment plan

Source: EWEA 2009

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The space needed

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20MW wind turbine and Eiffel tower

m300≈

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Major technology challenges

• Less expensive substructures

• Building very large wind turbinesReducing structural loads

Increase efficiency

Make upscaling possible

• Reducing significantly the operation and maintenancecosts

• Understand the interaction between very large wind farms and the (wind) climate

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Giant wind turbines – and houses..?

300m

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Words of conclusion

•The offshore wind power potential is large (enough)

•Cost of offshore wind energy will be larger than onshore –substructure, grid and O&M are the sinners

•Apparently, selling prices on offshore wind energy are currently too low and await political action

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

ENERTECH200931

offshore wind power - ΔΕΗ · •economy of offshore wind power plants ... erection 815 49...

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